Predicting polarization signatures for double-detonation and delayed-detonation models of Type Ia supernovae

Calculations of synthetic spectropolarimetry are one means to test multidimensional explosion models for Type Ia supernovae. In a recent paper, we demonstrated that the violent merger of a 1.1 and 0.9 M⊙ white dwarf binary system is too asymmetric to explain the low polarization levels commonly observed in normal Type Ia supernovae. Here, we present polarization simulations for two alternative scenarios: the sub-Chandrasekhar mass double-detonation and the Chandrasekhar mass delayed-detonation model. Specifically, we study a 2D double-detonation model and a 3D delayed-detonation model, and calculate polarization spectra for multiple observer orientations in both cases. We find modest polarization levels (<1 per cent) for both explosion models. Polarization in the continuum peaks at ∼0.1–0.3 per cent and decreases after maximum light, in excellent agreement with spectropolarimetric data of normal Type Ia supernovae. Higher degrees of polarization are found across individual spectral lines. In particular, the synthetic Si II λ6355 profiles are polarized at levels that match remarkably well the values observed in normal Type Ia supernovae, while the low degrees of polarization predicted across the O I λ7774 region are consistent with the non-detection of this feature in current data. We conclude that our models can reproduce many of the characteristics of both flux and polarization spectra for well-studied Type Ia supernovae, such as SN 2001el and SN 2012fr. However, the two models considered here cannot account for the unusually high level of polarization observed in extreme cases such as SN 2004dt.

Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Evaluating a School Community Linked Physical Activity Intervention Programme: a Multi-level Analysis.

Previous research has highlighted the importance of positive physical activity (PA) behaviors during childhood to promote sustained active lifestyles throughout the lifespan (Telama et al. 2005; 2014). It is in this context that the role of schools and teachers in facilitating PA education is promoted. Research suggests that teachers play an important role in the attitudes of children towards PA (Figley 1985) and schools may be an efficient vehicle for PA provision and promotion (McGinnis, Kanner and DeGraw, 1991; Wechsler, Deveraux, Davis and Collins, 2000). Yet despite consensus that schools represent an ideal setting from which to ‘reach’ young people (Department of Health and Human Services, UK, 2012) there remains conceptual (e.g. multi-component intervention) and methodological (e.g. duration, intensity, family involvement) ambiguity regarding the mechanisms of change claimed by PA intervention programmes. This may, in part, contribute to research findings that suggest that PA interventions have had limited impact on children’s overall activity levels and thereby limited impact in reducing children’s metabolic health (Metcalf, Henley & Wilkin, 2012). A marked criticism of the health promotion field has been the focus on behavioural change while failing to acknowledge the impact of context in influencing health outcomes (Golden & Earp, 2011). For years, the trans-theoretical model of behaviour change has been ‘the dominant model for health behaviour change’ (Armitage, 2009); this model focusses primarily on the individual and the psychology of the change process. Arguably, this model is limited by the individual’s decision-making ability and degree of self-efficacy in order to achieve sustained behavioural change and does not take account of external factors that may hinder their ability to realise change. Similar to the trans-theoretical model, socio-ecological models identify the individual at the focal point of change but also emphasises the importance of connecting multiple impacting variables, in particular, the connections between the social environment, the physical environment and public policy in facilitating behavioural change (REF). In this research, a social-ecological framework was used to connect the ways a PA intervention programme had an impact (or not) on participants, and to make explicit the foundational features of the programme that facilitated positive change. In this study, we examined the evaluation of a multi-agency approach to a PA intervention programme which aimed to increase physical activity, and awareness of the importance of physical activity to key stage 2 (age 7-12) pupils in three UK primary schools. The agencies involved were the local health authority, a community based charitable organisation, a local health administrative agency, and the city school district. In examining the impact of the intervention, we adopted a process evaluation model in order to better understand the mechanisms and context that facilitated change. Therefore, the aim of this evaluation was to describe the provision, process and impact of the intervention by 1) assessing changes in physical activity levels 2) assessing changes in the student’s attitudes towards physical activity, 3) examining student’s perceptions of the child size fitness equipment in school and their likelihood of using the equipment outside of school and 4) exploring staff perceptions, specifically the challenges and benefits, of facilitating equipment based exercise sessions in the school environment. Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used Evaluation of the intervention was designed as a matched-control study and was undertaken over a seven-month period. The school-based intervention involved 3 intervention schools (n =436; 224 boys) and one control school (n=123; 70 boys) in a low socioeconomic and multicultural urban setting. The PA intervention was separated into two phases: a motivation DVD and 10 days of circuit based exercise sessions (Phase 1) followed by a maintenance phase (Phase 2) that incorporated a PA reward program and the use of specialist kid’s gym equipment located at each school for a period of 4 wk. Outcome measures were measured at baseline (January) and endpoint (July; end of academic school year) using reliable and valid self-report measures. The children’s attitudes towards PA were assessed using the Children’s Attitudes towards Physical Activity (CATPA) questionnaire. The Physical Activity Questionnaire for Children (PAQ-C), a 7-day recall questionnaire, was used to assess PA levels over a school week. A standardised test battery (Fitnessgram®) was used to assess cardiovascular fitness, body composition, muscular strength and endurance, and flexibility. After the 4 wk period, similar kid’s equipment was available for general access at local community facilities. The control school did not receive any of the interventions. All physical fitness tests and PA questionnaires were administered and collected prior to the start of the intervention (January) and following the intervention period (July) by an independent evaluation team. Evaluation testing took place at the individual schools over 2-3 consecutive days (depending on the number of children to be tested at the school). Staff (n=19) and student perceptions (n = 436) of the child sized fitness equipment were assessed via questionnaires post-intervention. Students completed a questionnaire to assess enjoyment, usage, ease of use and equipment assess and usage in the community. A questionnaire assessed staff perceptions on the delivery of the exercise sessions, classroom engagement and student perceptions. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings Findings showed that both the intervention (16.4%) and control groups increased their PAQ-C score by post-intervention (p < 0.05); with the intervention (17.8%) and control (21.3%) boys showing the greatest increase in physical activity levels. At post-intervention, there was a 5.5% decline in the intervention girls’ attitudes toward PA in the aesthetic subdomains (p = 0.009); whereas the control boys had an increase in positive attitudes in the health domain (p = 0.003). No significant differences in attitudes towards physical activity were observed in any other domain for either group at post-intervention (p > 0.05). The results of the equipment questionnaire, 96% of the children stated they enjoyed using the equipment and would like to use the equipment again in the future; however at post-intervention only 27% reported using the equipment outside of school in the last 7 days. Students identified the ski walker (34%) and cycle (32%) as their favorite pieces of equipment; with the single joint exercises such as leg extension and bicep/tricep machine (<3%) as their least favorite. Key themes from staff were that the equipment sessions were enjoyable, a novel activity, children felt very grown-up, and the activity was linked to a real fitness experience. They also expressed the need for more support to deliver the sessions and more time required for each session. Findings from this study suggest that a more integrated approach within the various agencies is required, particularly more support to increase teachers pedagogical content knowledge in physical activity instruction which is age appropriate. Future recommendations for successful implementation include sufficient time period for all students to access and engage with the equipment; increased access and marketing of facilities to parents within the local community, and professional teacher support strategies to facilitate the exercise sessions.

How Have Institutional Barriers Impacted Implementation of Ecosystem Based Fishery Management in the US

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Modelling of water removal during a paper vacuum dewatering process using a Level-Set method

Water removal in paper manufacturing is an energy-intensive process. The dewatering process generally consists of four stages of which the first three stages include mechanical water removal through gravity filtration, vacuum dewatering and wet pressing. In the fourth stage, water is removed thermally, which is the most expensive stage in terms of energy use. In order to analyse water removal during a vacuum dewatering process, a numerical model was created by using a Level-Set method. Various different 2D structures of the paper model were created in MATLAB code with randomly positioned circular fibres with identical orientation. The model considers the influence of the forming fabric which supports the paper sheet during the dewatering process, by using volume forces to represent flow resistance in the momentum equation. The models were used to estimate the dry content of the porous structure for various dwell times. The relation between dry content and dwell time was compared to laboratory data for paper sheets with basis weights of 20 and 50 g/m2 exposed to vacuum levels between 20 kPa and 60 kPa. The comparison showed reasonable results for dewatering and air flow rates. The random positioning of the fibres influences the dewatering rate slightly. In order to achieve more accurate comparisons, the random orientation of the fibres needs to be considered, as well as the deformation and displacement of the fibres during the dewatering process.

Hierarchical Forest Management Planning: A Bilevel Wood Supply Modelling Approach

Le processus de planification forestière hiérarchique présentement en place sur les terres publiques risque d’échouer à deux niveaux. Au niveau supérieur, le processus en place ne fournit pas une preuve suffisante de la durabilité du niveau de récolte actuel. À un niveau inférieur, le processus en place n’appuie pas la réalisation du plein potentiel de création de valeur de la ressource forestière, contraignant parfois inutilement la planification à court terme de la récolte. Ces échecs sont attribuables à certaines hypothèses implicites au modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière, ce qui pourrait expliquer pourquoi ce problème n’est pas bien documenté dans la littérature. Nous utilisons la théorie de l’agence pour modéliser le processus de planification forestière hiérarchique sur les terres publiques. Nous développons un cadre de simulation itératif en deux étapes pour estimer l’effet à long terme de l’interaction entre l’État et le consommateur de fibre, nous permettant ainsi d’établir certaines conditions pouvant mener à des ruptures de stock. Nous proposons ensuite une formulation améliorée du modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière. La formulation classique du modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière (c.-à-d., maximisation du rendement soutenu en fibre) ne considère pas que le consommateur de fibre industriel souhaite maximiser son profit, mais suppose plutôt la consommation totale de l’offre de fibre à chaque période, peu importe le potentiel de création de valeur de celle-ci. Nous étendons la formulation classique du modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière afin de permettre l’anticipation du comportement du consommateur de fibre, augmentant ainsi la probabilité que l’offre de fibre soit entièrement consommée, rétablissant ainsi la validité de l’hypothèse de consommation totale de l’offre de fibre implicite au modèle d’optimisation. Nous modélisons la relation principal-agent entre le gouvernement et l’industrie à l’aide d’une formulation biniveau du modèle optimisation, où le niveau supérieur représente le processus de détermination de la possibilité forestière (responsabilité du gouvernement), et le niveau inférieur représente le processus de consommation de la fibre (responsabilité de l’industrie). Nous montrons que la formulation biniveau peux atténuer le risque de ruptures de stock, améliorant ainsi la crédibilité du processus de planification forestière hiérarchique. Ensemble, le modèle biniveau d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière et la méthodologie que nous avons développée pour résoudre celui-ci à l’optimalité, représentent une alternative aux méthodes actuellement utilisées. Notre modèle biniveau et le cadre de simulation itérative représentent un pas vers l’avant en matière de technologie de planification forestière axée sur la création de valeur. L’intégration explicite d’objectifs et de contraintes industrielles au processus de planification forestière, dès la détermination de la possibilité forestière, devrait favoriser une collaboration accrue entre les instances gouvernementales et industrielles, permettant ainsi d’exploiter le plein potentiel de création de valeur de la ressource forestière.

Requirement Risk Level Forecast Using Bayesian Networks Classifiers

Requirement engineering is a key issue in the development of a software project. Like any other development activity it is not without risks. This work is about the empirical study of risks of requirements by applying machine learning techniques, specifically Bayesian networks classifiers. We have defined several models to predict the risk level for a given requirement using three dataset that collect metrics taken from the requirement specifications of different projects. The classification accuracy of the Bayesian models obtained is evaluated and compared using several classification performance measures. The results of the experiments show that the Bayesians networks allow obtaining valid predictors. Specifically, a tree augmented network structure shows a competitive experimental performance in all datasets. Besides, the relations established between the variables collected to determine the level of risk in a requirement, match with those set by requirement engineers. We show that Bayesian networks are valid tools for the automation of risks assessment in requirement engineering.

Mitigation of sea level rise effects by addition of sediment to shrimp ponds

In New Caledonia barren salt-pans located landward to mangroves are used for the construction of shrimp ponds. The existing farms are jeopardized by the projected rise in the sea level, because the landward boundaries of ponds are situated at the elevation reached by spring tides. One low-cost strategy for mitigating the effects of sea level rise is to raise the level of the bottom of ponds. To test the effectiveness of such an adaptation, we built 4 experimental ponds in the low-lying zone of an existing 10 ha shrimp pond. The level of the bottom of 2 ponds was raised by adding about 15 cm of agricultural soil. Placing agricultural soil in the pond did not impair the functioning of the shrimp pond ecosystem. On the contrary, it resulted in unexpectedly better shrimp production in the 2 ponds with agricultural soils versus control ponds. We conclude that placing a layer of soil inside shrimp ponds is a promising strategy for maintaining the viability of shrimp ponds as the sea level rises.

Assessing the influence of abiotic factors and leaf-level properties on the stability of growing-season canopy greenness in a deciduous forest

Maps depicting spatial pattern in the stability of summer greenness could advance understanding of how forest ecosystems will respond to global changes such as a longer growing season. Declining summer greenness, or “greendown”, is spectrally related to declining near-infrared reflectance and is observed in most remote sensing time series to begin shortly after peak greenness at the end of spring and extend until the beginning of leaf coloration in autumn,. Understanding spatial patterns in the strength of greendown has recently become possible with the advancement of Landsat phenology products, which show that greendown patterns vary at scales appropriate for linking these patterns to proposed environmental forcing factors. This study tested two non-mutually exclusive hypotheses for how leaf measurements and environmental factors correlate with greendown and decreasing NIR reflectance across sites. At the landscape scale, we used linear regression to test the effects of maximum greenness, elevation, slope, aspect, solar irradiance and canopy rugosity on greendown. Secondly, we used leaf chemical traits and reflectance observations to test the effect of nitrogen availability and intrinsic water use efficiency on leaf-level greendown, and landscape-level greendown measured from Landsat. The study was conducted using Quercus alba canopies across 21 sites of an eastern deciduous forest in North America between June and August 2014. Our linear model explained greendown variance with an R2=0.47 with maximum greenness as the greatest model effect. Subsequent models excluding one model effect revealed elevation and aspect were the two topographic factors that explained the greatest amount of greendown variance. Regression results also demonstrated important interactions between all three variables, with the greatest interaction showing that aspect had greater influence on greendown at sites with steeper slopes. Leaf-level reflectance was correlated with foliar δ13C (proxy for intrinsic water use efficiency), but foliar δ13C did not translate into correlations with landscape-level variation in greendown from Landsat. Therefore, we conclude that Landsat greendown is primarily indicative of landscape position, with a small effect of canopy structure, and no measureable effect of leaf reflectance. With this understanding of Landsat greendown we can better explain the effects of landscape factors on vegetation reflectance and perhaps on phenology, which would be very useful for studying phenology in the context of global climate change

An examination of the usefulness of single-species biomass models for the management of Lake Victoria fisheries

Nile perch (Lates niloticus), tilapia (Oreochromis spp), dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea, silver cyprinid), and haplochromines (Tribe Haplochromini) form the backbone of the commercial fishery on Lake Victoria. These fish stocks account for about 70% of the total catch in the three riparian states Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. The lake fisheries have been poorly managed, in part due to inadequate scientific analysis and management advice. The overall objective of this project was to model the stocks of the commercial fisheries of Lake Victoria with the view of determining reference points and current stock status. The Schaefer biomass model was fitted to available data for each stock (starting in the 1960s or later) in the form of landings, catch per unit effort, acoustic survey indices, and trawl survey indices. In most cases, the Schaefer model did not fit all data components very well, but attempts were made to find the best model for each stock. When the model was fitted to the Nile perch data starting from 1996, the estimated current biomass is 654 kt (95% CI 466–763); below the optimum of 692 kt and current harvest rate is 38% (33–73%), close to the optimum of 35%. At best, these can be used as tentative guidelines for the management of these fisheries. The results indicate that there have been strong multispecies interactions in the lake ecosystem. The findings from our study can be used as a baseline reference for future studies using more complex models, which could take these multispecies interactions into account.

Application of mathematical models to mycotoxins children risk assessment: a case study of Portuguese children exposure to co-occurring mycotoxins in processed cereal-based foods

People, animals and the environment can be exposed to multiple chemicals at once from a variety of sources, but current risk assessment is usually carried out based on one chemical substance at a time. In human health risk assessment, ingestion of food is considered a major route of exposure to many contaminants, namely mycotoxins, a wide group of fungal secondary metabolites that are known to potentially cause toxicity and carcinogenic outcomes. Mycotoxins are commonly found in a variety of foods including those intended for consumption by infants and young children and have been found in processed cereal-based foods available in the Portuguese market. The use of mathematical models, including probabilistic approaches using Monte Carlo simulations, constitutes a prominent issue in human health risk assessment in general and in mycotoxins exposure assessment in particular. The present study aims to characterize, for the first time, the risk associated with the exposure of Portuguese children to single and multiple mycotoxins present in processed cereal-based foods (CBF). Portuguese children (0-3 years old) food consumption data (n=103) were collected using a 3 days food diary. Contamination data concerned the quantification of 12 mycotoxins (aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, fumonisins and trichothecenes) were evaluated in 20 CBF samples marketed in 2014 and 2015 in Lisbon; samples were analyzed by HPLC-FLD, LC-MS/MS and GC-MS. Daily exposure of children to mycotoxins was performed using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Different strategies were used to treat the left censored data. For aflatoxins, as carcinogenic compounds, the margin of exposure (MoE) was calculated as a ratio of BMDL (benchmark dose lower confidence limit) to the aflatoxin exposure. The magnitude of the MoE gives an indication of the risk level. For the remaining mycotoxins, the output of exposure was compared to the dose reference values (TDI) in order to calculate the hazard quotients (ratio between exposure and a reference dose, HQ). For the cumulative risk assessment of multiple mycotoxins, the concentration addition (CA) concept was used. The combined margin of exposure (MoET) and the hazard index (HI) were calculated for aflatoxins and the remaining mycotoxins, respectively. 71% of CBF analyzed samples were contaminated with mycotoxins (with values below the legal limits) and approximately 56% of the studied children consumed CBF at least once in these 3 days. Preliminary results showed that children exposure to single mycotoxins present in CBF were below the TDI. Aflatoxins MoE and MoET revealed a reduced potential risk by exposure through consumption of CBF (with values around 10000 or more). HQ and HI values for the remaining mycotoxins were below 1. Children are a particularly vulnerable population group to food contaminants and the present results point out an urgent need to establish legal limits and control strategies regarding the presence of multiple mycotoxins in children foods in order to protect their health. The development of packaging materials with antifungal properties is a possible solution to control the growth of moulds and consequently to reduce mycotoxin production, contributing to guarantee the quality and safety of foods intended for children consumption.

Core-level photoemission investigations of the CDTE(100) and INSB(100) surface and interfacial structures

Photoemission techniques, utilizing a synchrotron light source, were used to analyze the clean (100) surfaces of the zinc-blende semiconductor materials CdTe and InSb. Several interfacial systems involving the surfaces of these materials were also studied, including the CdTe(lOO)-Ag interface, the CdTe(lOO)-Sb system, and the InSb(lOO)-Sn interface. High-energy electron diffraction was also employed to acquire information about of surface structure. A one-domain (2xl) structure was observed for the CdTe(lOO) surface. Analysis of photoemission spectra of the Cd 4d core level for this surface structure revealed two components resulting from Cd surface atoms. The total intensity of these components accounts for a full monolayer of Cd atoms on the surface. A structural model is discussed commensurate with these results. Photoemission spectra of the Cd and Te 4d core levels indicate that Ag or Sb deposited on the CdTe(l00)-(2xl) surface at room temperature do not bound strongly to the surface Cd atoms. The room temperature growth characteristics for these two elements on the CdTe(lOO)-(2xl) are discussed. The growth at elevated substrate temperatures was also studied for Sb deposition. The InSb(lOO) surface differed from the CdTe(lOO) surface. Using molecular beam epitaxy, several structures could be generated for the InSb(lOO) surface, including a c(8x2), a c(4x4), an asymmetric (lx3), a symmetric (lx3), and a (lxl). Analysis of photoemission intensities and line shapes indicates that the c(4x4) surface is terminated with 1-3/4 monolayers of Sb atoms. The c(8x2) surface is found to be terminated with 3/4 monolayer of In atoms. Structural models for both of these surfaces are proposed based upon the photoemission results and upon models of the similar GaAs(lOO) structures. The room temperature growth characteristics of grey Sn on the lnSb(lOO)-c(4x4) and InSb(l00)-c(8x2) surfaces were studied with photoemission. The discontinuity in the valence band maximum for this semiconductor heterojunction system is measured to be 0.40 eV, independent of the starting surface structure and stoichiometry. This result is reconciled with theoretical predictions for heterostructure behavior.

Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

Mineral and organic pollution in river Sabor (Northeastern Portugal): ecotoxicological effects on freshwater fauna

Aquatic ecosystems are final collectors of all kinds of pollution as an outcome of anthropogenic inputs, such us untreated industrial and municipal sewage and agricultural pollutants. There are several aquatic ecosystems that are threatened by mineral and organic pollution. In Northeastern Portugal, near Bragança, different watercourses are suffering negative impacts of human activities. It has been developed several studies in the monitoring of environmental impacts in these river basins, namely in Rio Fervença, affected by organic pollution, and in Portelo stream, affected, since 2009, by the collapse and continuous input of mining deposits. In this sense, the present study aimed to continue the monitoring study of ecological status of freshwater ecosystems of Northeastern Portugal, namely the following objectives: a) mineral pollution effects of mining deposits sudden incorporated into Portelo stream; b) organic pollution due to domestic and industrial inputs in River Fervença. Also, since fish are useful experimental models to evaluate toxicological mechanisms of contaminants, c) acute toxicity tests with Cu were conducted in laboratory conditions. During 2015/2016, it was made abiotic and biotic characterization of 16 sampling sites distributed by both Portelo and Fervença rivers, tributaries of main River Sabor (Douro Basin). Several physicochemical parameters were determined and Riparian Quality (QBR Index) and Channel Quality (GQC) Indexes were determined for habitat evaluation. Fish and invertebrate communities were sampled, according to protocols of Water Framework Directive (WFD). Several metrics were determined, with particular emphasis on the Biotic Index IBMWP and the Northern Portuguese Invertebrate Index (IPtIN). Acute toxicity tests were conducted with an Iberian fish species, common barbel (Luciobarbus bocagei) and some plasmatic electrolytes levels were evaluated, to assess their contribution to mitigate osmoregulatory adverse effects of Cu. Also, same electrolytes were measured after changing to clean water, in attempt to assess fish capacity to reverse this situation. Results obtained for both rivers showed a significant level of disturbance that affected decisively water, habitat and biological quality of aquatic ecosystems. Mineral and Organic Pollution in River Sabor (NE Portugal): Ecotoxicological Effects on Freshwater Fauna Due to this change of environmental conditions in Portelo stream (extreme pH values, high conductivity and presence of heavy metals), several biological metrics (e.g. taxonomic richness, abundance, diversity, evenness) confirmed, comparatively with reference sites, a substantial decrease on ecological integrity status. The same pattern was found for Fervença River; however other water parameters, namely the content of most limiting nutrients (e.g. N and P) seemed to have more influence in the composition and structure of macroinvertebrate and fish communities. In fact, despite the operation of the Sewage Treatment Plant of Bragança, Fervença River presented significant levels of disturbance that affected decisively the quality and ecological integrity of the aquatic ecosystem. The synergic effect of domestic and industrial pollution, intensive agriculture, regulation and degradation of aquatic and riparian habitats contributed to the decrease of ecological condition, namely in the downstream zones (after Bragança). The results for acute toxicity, showed that fish can change Na+ and K+ levels face to Cu exposition and, depending of Cu concentration tested, can also return to normal levels, providing some insights to that are believed to occurred in fish population, near the Portelo mines. The low ecological integrity status detected in the lotic ecosystems in NE Portugal as a result of mineral and organic pollution deserves the development of several measures for rehabilitation and improving of water quality. On the other hand, environmental education actions are needed to contribute to improvement of ecological integrity of the river and its conservation.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.