Dynamic models of exchange rate dependence using option prices and historical returns

Models for the conditional joint distribution of the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen exchange rates, from November 2001 until June 2007, are evaluated and compared. The conditional dependency is allowed to vary across time, as a function of either historical returns or a combination of past return data and option-implied dependence estimates. Using prices of currency options that are available in the public domain, risk-neutral dependency expectations are extracted through a copula repre- sentation of the bivariate risk-neutral density. For this purpose, we employ either the one-parameter \Normal" or a two-parameter \Gumbel Mixture" specification. The latter provides forward-looking information regarding the overall degree of covariation, as well as, the level and direction of asymmetric dependence. Specifications that include option-based measures in their information set are found to outperform, in-sample and out-of-sample, models that rely solely on historical returns.

Model of Active Structural Monitoring and Decision-making for Dynamic Identification of Buildings, Monuments and Engineering Facilities

Structural monitoring and dynamic identification of the manmade and natural hazard objects is under consideration. Math model of testing object by set of weak stationary dynamic actions is offered. The response of structures to the set of signals is under processing for getting important information about object condition in high frequency band. Making decision procedure into active monitoring system is discussed as well. As an example the monitoring outcome of pillar-type monument is given.

Dynamic Determination of Personalized Educational Paths

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education and Research in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2014

Dynamic analysis of submerged microscale plates:the effects of acoustic radiation and viscous dissipation

The aim of this paper is to study the dynamic characteristics of micromechanical rectangular plates used as sensing elements in a viscous compressible fluid. A novel modelling procedure for the plate- fluid interaction problem is developed on the basis of linearized Navier-Stokes equations and noslip conditions. Analytical expression for the fluidloading impedance is obtained using a double Fourier transform approach. This modelling work provides us an analytical means to study the effects of inertial loading, acoustic radiation and viscous dissipation of the fluid acting on the vibration of microplates. The numerical simulation is conducted on microplates with different boundary conditions and fluids with different viscosities. The simulation results reveal that the acoustic radiation dominates the damping mechanism of the submerged microplates. It is also proved that microplates offer better sensitivities (Q-factors) than the conventional beam type microcantilevers beingmass sensing platforms in a viscous fluid environment. The frequency response features of microplates under highly viscous fluid loading are studied using the present model. The dynamics of the microplates with all edges clamped are less influenced by the highly viscous dissipation of the fluid than the microplates with other types of boundary conditions.

Using an Infra-red sensor to measure the dynamic behaviour of N2O gas escaping through different sized holes

An anastomosis is a surgical procedure that consists of the connection of two parts of an organ and is commonly required in cases of colorectal cancer. About 80% of the patients diagnosed with this problem require surgery. The malignant tissue located on the gastrointestinal track must be resected and the most common procedure adopted is the anastomosis. Therefore, an anastomotic leak represents a significant problem and increases the duration of hospital stay, which is associated with remedial treatment and recovery, causing, as a result, a negative financial impact. A number of techniques to treat, prevent and even detect an anastomotic leakage are under investigation. However, studies show that these techniques are not always able to prevent an anastomotic leak from occurring. This paper discusses the monitoring of leakage through differently sized and differently positioned leak holes in phantom colons, using physical experiments and a Computational Fluid Dynamics package called FloWorks. © 2011 Taylor & Francis Group.

A prosztatarák gazdasági terhe nagy betegregiszterek alapján (The economic burden of prostate cancer. A systematic literature overview of registry-based studies)

INTRODUCTION: Prostate cancer, the most frequent malignant disease in males in Europe, accounts for a great proportion of health expenditures. AIM: A systematic review of registry-based studies about the cost-of-illness and related factors of prostate cancer, published in the last 10 years. METHOD: A MEDLINE-based literature review was carried out between January 1, 2003 and October 1, 2013. RESULTS: Fifteen peer-reviewed articles met the criteria of interest. In developed countries radiotherapy, surgical treatment and hormone therapy account for the greatest per capita costs. In Europe early stage tumours (4-7000 €, 2006), while in the USA metastatic prostate cancer (19 900-25 500 $, 2004) was associated with highest per capita expenses. In Europe the greatest costs incurred within the initial treatment (6400 €/6 months, 2008), while in the USA within the end-of-life care (depending on age: 62 200-93 400 $, 2010). CONCLUSIONS: Despite public health importance of prostate cancer, the cost-of-illness literature from Europe is relatively small.

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.

Abstractions to support dynamic adaptation of communication frameworks for user-centric communication

The convergence of data, audio and video on IP networks is changing the way individuals, groups and organizations communicate. This diversity of communication media presents opportunities for creating synergistic collaborative communications. This form of collaborative communication is however not without its challenges. The increasing number of communication service providers coupled with a combinatorial mix of offered services, varying Quality-of-Service and oscillating pricing of services increases the complexity for the user to manage and maintain ‘always best’ priced or performance services. Consumers have to manually manage and adapt their communication in line with differences in services across devices, networks and media while ensuring that the usage remain consistent with their intended goals. This dissertation proposes a novel user-centric approach to address this problem. The proposed approach aims to reduce the aforementioned complexity to the user by (1) providing high-level abstractions and a policy based methodology for automated selection of the communication services guided by high-level user policies and (2) providing services through the seamless integration of multiple communication service providers and providing an extensible framework to support the integration of multiple communication service providers. The approach was implemented in the Communication Virtual Machine (CVM), a model-driven technology for realizing communication applications. The CVM includes the Network Communication Broker, the layer responsible for providing a network-independent API to the upper layers of CVM. The initial prototype for the NCB supported only a single communication framework which limited the number, quality and types of services available. Experimental evaluation of the approach show the additional overhead of the approach is minimal compared to the individual communication services frameworks. Additionally the automated approach proposed out performed the individual communication services frameworks for cross framework switching.

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.

The development and preliminary testing of an instrument to measure the perceived economic burden of a subtype of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) on patients and families in Newfoundland

The goal of this thesis was to develop, construct, and validate the Perceived Economic Burden scale to quantitatively measure the burden associated with a subtype Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy (ARVC) in families from the island of Newfoundland. An original 76 item self-administered survey was designed using content from existing literature as well as themes from qualitative research conducted by our team and distributed to individuals of families known to be at risk for the disease. A response rate of 37.2% (n = 64) was achieved between December 2013 and May 2014. Tests for data quality, Likert scale assumptions and scale reliability were conducted and provided preliminary evidence of the psychometric properties of the final constructed perceived economic burden of ARVC scale comprising 62 items in five sections. Findings indicated that being an affected male was a significant predictor of increased perceived economic burden in the majority of economic burden measures. Affected males also reported an increased likelihood of going on disability and difficulty obtaining insurance. Affected females also had an increased perceived financial burden. Preliminary results suggest that a perceived economic burden exists within the ARVC population in Newfoundland.

Mean dynamic topography of the North Indian Ocean

A satellite-only Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) of the North Indian Ocean is estimated from the DIRR5 geoid and CNES_CLS11 mean sea surface (Schaffer et al. 2012). DIRR5 geoid is estimated from the latest release (Release 5) of GOCE gravity data according to previous studies (e.g., Johannessen et al. 2003; Raj, 2014). Note that this MDT estimated is referenced to a time period of 7 years (1993-1999). A correction data obtained from AVISO is later used to convert the MDT to a time reference of 20 years (1993-2012). More details are given in Raj (2016).

Dynamic method of stiffness identification in impacting systems for percussive drilling applications

Peer reviewed

The Burden of Burnout: An Assessment of Burnout Among Internal Medicine Residents After the 2011 Duty Hour Changes.

This study sought to determine burnout prevalence and factors associated with burnout in internal medicine residents after introduction of the 2011 ACGME duty hour rules. Burnout was evaluated using an anonymized, abbreviated version of the Maslach Burnout Inventory. Surveys were collected biweekly for 48 weeks during the 2013-2014 academic year. Burnout severity was compared across subgroups and time. A score of 3 or higher signified burnout. Overall, 944 of 3936 (24%) surveys were completed. The mean burnout score across all surveys was 2.8. Categorical residents had higher burnout severity than noncategorical residents (2.9 vs 2.7, P = .005). Postgraduate year 2 residents had the highest burnout severity by year (3.1, P < .001). Residents on inpatient rotations had higher burnout severity than residents on outpatient or consultation rotations (3.1 vs 2.2 vs 2.2, P < .001). Night float rotations had the highest severity (3.8). Burnout remains a significant problem even with recent duty hour modifications.

The Excess Burden of Cytomegalovirus in African American Communities: A Geospatial Analysis.

Background.  Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a common cause of birth defects and hearing loss in infants and opportunistic infections in the immunocompromised. Previous studies have found higher CMV seroprevalence rates among minorities and among persons with lower socioeconomic status. No studies have investigated the geographic distribution of CMV and its relationship to age, race, and poverty in the community. Methods.  We identified patients from 6 North Carolina counties who were tested in the Duke University Health System for CMV immunoglobulin G. We performed spatial statistical analyses to analyze the distributions of seropositive and seronegative individuals. Results.  Of 1884 subjects, 90% were either white or African American. Cytomegalovirus seropositivity was significantly more common among African Americans (73% vs 42%; odds ratio, 3.31; 95% confidence interval, 2.7-4.1), and this disparity persisted across the life span. We identified clusters of high and low CMV odds, both of which were largely explained by race. Clusters of high CMV odds were found in communities with high proportions of African Americans. Conclusions.  Cytomegalovirus seropositivity is geographically clustered, and its distribution is strongly determined by a community's racial composition. African American communities have high prevalence rates of CMV infection, and there may be a disparate burden of CMV-associated morbidity in these communities.