Condition deterioration prediction of bridge elements using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs)

The ability of bridge deterioration models to predict future condition provides significant advantages in improving the effectiveness of maintenance decisions. This paper proposes a novel model using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the condition of bridge elements. The proposed model improves prediction results by being able to handle, deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, the lack of full inspection histories, and joint considerations of both maintenance actions and environmental effects. With Bayesian updating capability, different types of data and information can be utilised as inputs. Expert knowledge can be used to deal with insufficient data as a starting point. The proposed model established a flexible basis for bridge systems deterioration modelling so that other models and Bayesian approaches can be further developed in one platform. A steel bridge main girder was chosen to validate the proposed model.

On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

Monte Carlo simulations of dynamic radiotherapy treatments

The effects of tumour motion during radiation therapy delivery have been widely investigated. Motion effects have become increasingly important with the introduction of dynamic radiotherapy delivery modalities such as enhanced dynamic wedges (EDWs) and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) where a dynamically collimated radiation beam is delivered to the moving target, resulting in dose blurring and interplay effects which are a consequence of the combined tumor and beam motion. Prior to this work, reported studies on the EDW based interplay effects have been restricted to the use of experimental methods for assessing single-field non-fractionated treatments. In this work, the interplay effects have been investigated for EDW treatments. Single and multiple field treatments have been studied using experimental and Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Initially this work experimentally studies interplay effects for single-field non-fractionated EDW treatments, using radiation dosimetry systems placed on a sinusoidaly moving platform. A number of wedge angles (60º, 45º and 15º), field sizes (20 × 20, 10 × 10 and 5 × 5 cm2), amplitudes (10-40 mm in step of 10 mm) and periods (2 s, 3 s, 4.5 s and 6 s) of tumor motion are analysed (using gamma analysis) for parallel and perpendicular motions (where the tumor and jaw motions are either parallel or perpendicular to each other). For parallel motion it was found that both the amplitude and period of tumor motion affect the interplay, this becomes more prominent where the collimator tumor speeds become identical. For perpendicular motion the amplitude of tumor motion is the dominant factor where as varying the period of tumor motion has no observable effect on the dose distribution. The wedge angle results suggest that the use of a large wedge angle generates greater dose variation for both parallel and perpendicular motions. The use of small field size with a large tumor motion results in the loss of wedged dose distribution for both parallel and perpendicular motion. From these single field measurements a motion amplitude and period have been identified which show the poorest agreement between the target motion and dynamic delivery and these are used as the „worst case motion parameters.. The experimental work is then extended to multiple-field fractionated treatments. Here a number of pre-existing, multiple–field, wedged lung plans are delivered to the radiation dosimetry systems, employing the worst case motion parameters. Moreover a four field EDW lung plan (using a 4D CT data set) is delivered to the IMRT quality control phantom with dummy tumor insert over four fractions using the worst case parameters i.e. 40 mm amplitude and 6 s period values. The analysis of the film doses using gamma analysis at 3%-3mm indicate the non averaging of the interplay effects for this particular study with a gamma pass rate of 49%. To enable Monte Carlo modelling of the problem, the DYNJAWS component module (CM) of the BEAMnrc user code is validated and automated. DYNJAWS has been recently introduced to model the dynamic wedges. DYNJAWS is therefore commissioned for 6 MV and 10 MV photon energies. It is shown that this CM can accurately model the EDWs for a number of wedge angles and field sizes. The dynamic and step and shoot modes of the CM are compared for their accuracy in modelling the EDW. It is shown that dynamic mode is more accurate. An automation of the DYNJAWS specific input file has been carried out. This file specifies the probability of selection of a subfield and the respective jaw coordinates. This automation simplifies the generation of the BEAMnrc input files for DYNJAWS. The DYNJAWS commissioned model is then used to study multiple field EDW treatments using MC methods. The 4D CT data of an IMRT phantom with the dummy tumor is used to produce a set of Monte Carlo simulation phantoms, onto which the delivery of single field and multiple field EDW treatments is simulated. A number of static and motion multiple field EDW plans have been simulated. The comparison of dose volume histograms (DVHs) and gamma volume histograms (GVHs) for four field EDW treatments (where the collimator and patient motion is in the same direction) using small (15º) and large wedge angles (60º) indicates a greater mismatch between the static and motion cases for the large wedge angle. Finally, to use gel dosimetry as a validation tool, a new technique called the „zero-scan method. is developed for reading the gel dosimeters with x-ray computed tomography (CT). It has been shown that multiple scans of a gel dosimeter (in this case 360 scans) can be used to reconstruct a zero scan image. This zero scan image has a similar precision to an image obtained by averaging the CT images, without the additional dose delivered by the CT scans. In this investigation the interplay effects have been studied for single and multiple field fractionated EDW treatments using experimental and Monte Carlo methods. For using the Monte Carlo methods the DYNJAWS component module of the BEAMnrc code has been validated and automated and further used to study the interplay for multiple field EDW treatments. Zero-scan method, a new gel dosimetry readout technique has been developed for reading the gel images using x-ray CT without losing the precision and accuracy.

Modeling and analyzing the carbon footprint of business processes

Many corporations and individuals realize that environmental sustainability is an urgent problem to address. In this chapter, we contribute to the emerging academic discussion by proposing two innovative approaches for engaging in the development of environmentally sustainable business processes. Specifically, we describe an extended process modeling approach for capturing and documenting the dioxide emissions produced during the execution of a business process. For illustration, we apply this approach to the case of a government Shared Service provider. Second, we then introduce an analysis method for measuring the carbon dioxide emissions produced during the execution of a business process. To illustrate this approach, we apply it in the real-life case of a European airport and show how this information can be leveraged in the re-design of "green" business processes.

Modeling ion channel dynamics through reflected stochastic differential equations

Ion channels are membrane proteins that open and close at random and play a vital role in the electrical dynamics of excitable cells. The stochastic nature of the conformational changes these proteins undergo can be significant, however current stochastic modeling methodologies limit the ability to study such systems. Discrete-state Markov chain models are seen as the "gold standard," but are computationally intensive, restricting investigation of stochastic effects to the single-cell level. Continuous stochastic methods that use stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to model the system are more efficient but can lead to simulations that have no biological meaning. In this paper we show that modeling the behavior of ion channel dynamics by a reflected SDE ensures biologically realistic simulations, and we argue that this model follows from the continuous approximation of the discrete-state Markov chain model. Open channel and action potential statistics from simulations of ion channel dynamics using the reflected SDE are compared with those of a discrete-state Markov chain method. Results show that the reflected SDE simulations are in good agreement with the discrete-state approach. The reflected SDE model therefore provides a computationally efficient method to simulate ion channel dynamics while preserving the distributional properties of the discrete-state Markov chain model and also ensuring biologically realistic solutions. This framework could easily be extended to other biochemical reaction networks. © 2012 American Physical Society.

Dynamic covalent chemistry on surfaces employing highly reactive cyclopentadienyl moieties

Silicon substrates coated with a bromide-terminated silane are transformed into highly reactive, cyclopentadiene covered analogues. These surfaces undergo rapid cycloaddition reactions with various dienophile-capped polymers. Mild heating of the substrates causes the retro-Diels-Alder reaction to occur, thus reforming the reactive cyclopentadiene surface, generating an efficiently switchable surface.

Image-based visual servoing for the super-orbital re-entry of Hayabusa spacecraft

This paper presents an image-based visual servoing system that was used to track the atmospheric Earth re-entry of Hayabusa. The primary aim of this ground based tracking platform was to record the emission spectrum radiating from the superheated gas of the shock layer and the surface of the heat shield during re-entry. To the author's knowledge, this is the first time that a visual servoing system has successfully tracked a super-orbital re-entry of a spacecraft and recorded its pectral signature. Furthermore, we improved the system by including a simplified dynamic model for feed-forward control and demonstrate improved tracking performance on the International Space Station (ISS). We present comparisons between simulation and experimental results on different target trajectories including tracking results from Hayabusa and ISS. The required performance for tracking both spacecraft is demanding when combined with a narrow field of view (FOV). We also briefly discuss the preliminary results obtained from the spectroscopy of the Hayabusa's heat shield during re-entry.

Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes

Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help to develop more targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety and more cost-effective safety awareness program in motorcyclist training.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Hotspot Identification: A Full Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

This study proposes a full Bayes (FB) hierarchical modeling approach in traffic crash hotspot identification. The FB approach is able to account for all uncertainties associated with crash risk and various risk factors by estimating a posterior distribution of the site safety on which various ranking criteria could be based. Moreover, by use of hierarchical model specification, FB approach is able to flexibly take into account various heterogeneities of crash occurrence due to spatiotemporal effects on traffic safety. Using Singapore intersection crash data(1997-2006), an empirical evaluate was conducted to compare the proposed FB approach to the state-of-the-art approaches. Results show that the Bayesian hierarchical models with accommodation for site specific effect and serial correlation have better goodness-of-fit than non hierarchical models. Furthermore, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than the naive approach using raw crash count. The FB hierarchical models were found to significantly outperform the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hotspots.

Modeling collision avoidance decisions in navigation

Due to grave potential human, environmental and economical consequences of collisions at sea, collision avoidance has become an important safety concern in navigation. To reduce the risk of collisions at sea, appropriate collision avoidance actions need to be taken in accordance with the regulations, i.e., International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea. However, the regulations only provide qualitative rules and guidelines, and therefore it requires navigators to decide on collision avoidance actions quantitatively by using their judgments which often leads to making errors in navigation. To better help navigators in collision avoidance, this paper develops a comprehensive collision avoidance decision making model for providing whether a collision avoidance action is required, when to take action and what action to be taken. The model is developed based on three types of collision avoidance actions, such as course change only, speed change only, and a combination of both. The model has potential to reduce the chance of making human error in navigation by assisting navigators in decision making on collision avoidance actions.

Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

Aspect oriented business process modeling with precedence

Complexity is a major concern which is aimed to be overcome by people through modeling. One way of reducing complexity is separation of concerns, e.g. separation of business process from applications. One sort of concerns are cross-cutting concerns i.e. concerns which are scattered and tangled through one of several models. In business process management, examples of such concerns are security and privacy policies. To deal with these cross-cutting concerns, the aspect orientated approach was introduced in the software development area and recently also in the business process management area. The work presented in this paper elaborates on aspect oriented process modelling. It extends earlier work by defining a mechanism for capturing multiple concerns and specifying a precedence order according to which they should be handled in a process. A formal syntax of the notation is presented precisely capturing the extended concepts and mechanisms. Finally, the relevant of the approach is demonstrated through a case study.

Dynamic compression improves biosynthesis of human zonal chondrocytes from osteoarthritis patients

Objective: We hypothesize that chondrocytes from distinct zones of articular cartilage respond differently to compressive loading, and that zonal chondrocytes from osteoarthritis (OA) patients can benefit from optimized compressive stimulation. Therefore, we aimed to determine the transcriptional response of superficial (S) and middle/deep (MD) zone chondrocytes to varying dynamic compressive strain and loading duration. To confirm effects of compressive stimulation on overall matrix production, we subjected zonal chondrocytes to compression for 2 weeks. Design: Human S and MD chondrocytes from osteoarthritic joints were encapsulated in 2% alginate, pre-cultured, and subjected to compression with varying dynamic strain (5, 15, 50% at 1 Hz) and loading duration (1, 3, 12 h). Temporal changes in cartilage-specific, zonal, and dedifferentiation genes following compression were evaluated using quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). The benefits of long-term compression (50% strain, 3 h/day, for 2 weeks) were assessed by measuring construct glycosaminoglycan (GAG) content and compressive moduli, as well as immunostaining. Results: Compressive stimulation significantly induced aggrecan (ACAN), COL2A1, COL1A1, proteoglycan 4 (PRG4), and COL10A1 gene expression after 2 h of unloading, in a zone-dependent manner (P < 0.05). ACAN and PRG4 mRNA levels depended on strain and load duration, with 50% and 3 h loading resulting in highest levels (P < 0.05). Long-term compression increased collagen type II and ACAN immunostaining and total GAG (P < 0.05), but only S constructs showed more PRG4 stain, retained more GAG (P < 0.01), and developed higher compressive moduli than non-loaded controls. Conclusions: The biosynthetic activity of zonal chondrocytes from osteoarthritis joints can be enhanced with selected compression regimes, indicating the potential for cartilage tissue engineering applications. © 2012 Osteoarthritis Research Society International.