The Inflation Bias under Calvo and Rotemberg Pricing.

New Keynesian models rely heavily on two workhorse models of nominal inertia - price contracts of random duration (Calvo, 1983) and price adjustment costs (Rotemberg, 1982) - to generate a meaningful role for monetary policy. These alternative descriptions of price stickiness are often used interchangeably since, to a first order of approximation they imply an isomorphic Phillips curve and, if the steady-state is efficient, identical objectives for the policy maker and as a result in an LQ framework, the same policy conclusions. In this paper we compute time-consistent optimal monetary policy in bench-mark New Keynesian models containing each form of price stickiness. Using global solution techniques we find that the inflation bias problem under Calvo contracts is significantly greater than under Rotemberg pricing, despite the fact that the former typically significant exhibits far greater welfare costs of inflation. The rates of inflation observed under this policy are non-trivial and suggest that the model can comfortably generate the rates of inflation at which the problematic issues highlighted in the trend inflation literature emerge, as well as the movements in trend inflation emphasized in empirical studies of the evolution of inflation. Finally, we consider the response to cost push shocks across both models and find these can also be significantly different. The choice of which form of nominal inertia to adopt is not innocuous.

Comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under natural and forced infiltration conditions to estimate vadose zone hydraulic parameters

Time-lapse crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, collected while infiltration occurs, can provide valuable information regarding the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone. In particular, the stochastic inversion of such data provides estimates of parameter uncertainties, which are necessary for hydrological prediction and decision making. Here, we investigate the effect of different infiltration conditions on the stochastic inversion of time-lapse, zero-offset-profile, GPR data. Inversions are performed using a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo methodology. Our results clearly indicate that considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions

Tractable valuations under uncertainty

I put forward a concise and intuitive formula for the calculation of the valuation for a good in the presence of the expectation that further, related, goods will soon become available. This valuation is tractable in the sense that it does not require the explicit resolution of the consumerís life-time problem.

Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

Slowing Down

We extend the efficiency wage model of Shapiro and Stiglitz to account for the observation that workers’ effort has a tendency to fall when they approach the end of their employment contract. In particular, we find that the efficiency wage increases when the end of term approaches for a given rate of unemployment. We draw implications for the behavior of workers who are approaching retirement, temporary employment contracts, and the advance notice of impending job loss.

Is Graduate Under-employment Persistent? Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper examines the persistence of under-employment amongst UK higher education graduates. For the cohort of individuals who graduated in 2002/3, micro-data collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency, are used to calculate the rates of "non-graduate job" employment 6 months and 42 months after graduation. A logic regression analysis suggests the underemployment is not a short-term phenomenon and is systematically related to a set of observable characteristics. It is also found that under-employment 42 months after graduation, which is consistent with the view that the nature of the first job after graduation is important in terms of occupational attainment later in the life-cycle.

Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.

Reversibility of cardiac fibrosis in mice chronically infected with Trypanosoma cruzi, under specific chemotherapy

This investigation was performed to verify the effect of specific chemotherapy (Benznidazole or MK-346) on the inflammatory and fibrotic cardiac alterations in mice chronically infected with the strains 21 SF (Type II) and Colombian (Type III) of Trypanosoma cruzi. To obtain chronically infected mice, two groups of 100 Swiss mice each, were infected with either the 21 SF or the Colombian strain (2x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 and 5x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 blood forms respectively). The rate of morality in the acute phase was of 80% for both groups. Twenty surviving mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 20 with the Colombian strain were then divided in treated and untreated groups. Excluding those that died during the course of treatment, 14 mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 15 with the Colombian strain were evaluated in the present study. Chemotherapy was performed with Benznidazole (N-benzil-2-nitro-1-imidazolacetamide) in the dose of 100mg/k.b.w/day, for 60 days, or with the MK-436(3(1-methyl-5 nitroimidazol-2-yl) in two daily doses of 250 mg/k.b.w, for 20 days. Parasitological cure tests were performed (xenodiagnosis, haemoculture, subinovulation of the blood into newborn mice), and serological indirect immunofluorescence test. The treated and untreated mice as well as intact controls were killed at different periods after treatment and the heart were submitted to histopathological study with hematoxilineosin and picrosirius staining; ultrastructural study; collagen immunotyping, fibronectin and laminin identification by immunofluorescence tests. Results: the untreated controls either infected with 21 SF or Colombian strain, showed inflammatory and fibrotic alterations that were mild to moderate with the 21 SF strain and intense with the Colombian strain. Redpicrosirius staining showed bundles of collagen in the interstitial space and around cardiac fibers. Increased deposits of mitritial components and collagen fibers, macrophages and fibroblasts appeared at the ultra structural examination. Deposits of fibronectin, laminin, pro-III and IV collagens were seen, most intense in those infected with the Colombian strain. Treated nice, parasitologically cured, presented clear-cut regression of the inflammatory lesions and of the interstitial matrix thickening. Mice infected with the Colombian strain and treated with MK-436, was parasitologically cured in 5/6 cases and showed mild inflammatory infiltration and fibrosis. The mice treated with Benznidazole (Colombian strain) did not cure and showed moderate fibrosis and inflammation. Treatment of the nice infected with the 21 SF with Benznidazole determined parasitological cure of all animals, that showed mild inflammation and fibrosis of the myocardium. The cured mice of all groups and treated but uncured showed collagen degradation at electronmicroscopy and decrease of immunofluorescence pattern of the matrix.

VEGF and TNF up-regulate, NSAID down-regulate SOX18 protein level in HUVEC

Angiogenesis, the process of generating new blood vessels, is essential to embryonic development, organ formation, tissue regeneration and remodeling, reproduction and wound healing. Also, it plays an important role in many pathological conditions, including chronic inflammation and cancer. Angiogenesis is regulated by a complex interplay of growth factors, inflammatory mediators, adhesion molecules, morphogens and guidance molecules. Transcription factor SOX18 is transiently expressed in nascent endothelial cells during embryonic development and postnatal angiogenesis, but little is known about signaling pathways controlling its expression. The aim of this study was to investigate whether pro-angiogenic molecules and pharmacological inhibitors of angiogenesis modulate SOX18 expression in endothelial cells. Therefore, we treated human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) with angiogenic factors, extracellular matrix proteins, inflammatory cytokines and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) and monitored SOX18 expression. We have observed that the angiogenic factor VEGF and the inflammatory cytokine TNF increase, while the NSAID ibuprofen and NS398 decrease the SOX18 protein level. These results for the first time demonstrate that SOX18 expression is modulated by factors and drugs known to positively or negatively regulate angiogenesis. This opens the possibility of pharmacological manipulation of SOX18 gene expression in endothelial cells to stimulate or inhibit angiogenesis.

Displacement of Biomfhalaria glabrata by thiara granifera under natural conditions in the Dominican Republic

After a study of the population dynamics of Biomphalaria glabrata snails in several breeding places in the Dominican Republic, the snail Thiara granifera was introduced in some B. glabrata habitats. T. granifera became established in one point in one habitat in the townof Quisqueya, in the east of the country. Around this point of establishment 6 points were selected in order to observe the population dynamics of both species of snails and the chemical and biological characteristics at each point. Four of these points already harbored B. glabrata. One control point was selected also harboring B. glabrata. After 14 months of observations, the results showed that T. granifera was competing with and displacing B. glabrata. This competition does not seem to be competition for food or vital space. Rather, B. glabrata avoids the presence of T. granifera and moves away to new areas, and this is possibly due to a chemical substance(s) secreted by T. granifera or by physical contact with the large number of individuals of T. granifera.

Drosophila Myc interacts with host cell factor (dHCF) to activate transcription and control growth.

The Myc proto-oncoproteins are transcription factors that recognize numerous target genes through hexameric DNA sequences called E-boxes. The mechanism by which they then activate the expression of these targets is still under debate. Here, we use an RNAi screen in Drosophila S2 cells to identify Drosophila host cell factor (dHCF) as a novel co-factor for Myc that is functionally required for the activation of a Myc-dependent reporter construct. dHCF is also essential for the full activation of endogenous Myc target genes in S2 cells, and for the ability of Myc to promote growth in vivo. Myc and dHCF physically interact, and they colocalize on common target genes. Furthermore, down-regulation of dHCF-associated histone acetyltransferase and histone methyltransferase complexes in vivo interferes with the Myc biological activities. We therefore propose that dHCF recruits such chromatin-modifying complexes and thereby contributes to the expression of Myc targets and hence to the execution of Myc biological activities.

Revisiting the specificity of the MHC class II transactivator CIITA in vivo.

CIITA is a master regulatory factor for the expression of MHC class II (MHC-II) and accessory genes involved in Ag presentation. It has recently been suggested that CIITA also regulates numerous other genes having diverse functions within and outside the immune system. To determine whether these genes are indeed relevant targets of CIITA in vivo, we studied their expression in CIITA-transgenic and CIITA-deficient mice. In contrast to the decisive control of MHC-II and related genes by CIITA, nine putative non-MHC target genes (Eif3s2, Kpna6, Tap1, Yars, Col1a2, Ctse, Ptprr, Tnfsf6 and Plxna1) were found to be CIITA independent in all cell types examined. Two other target genes, encoding IL-4 and IFN-gamma, were indeed found to be up- and down-regulated, respectively, in CIITA-transgenic CD4(+) T cells. However, there was no correlation between MHC-II expression and this Th2 bias at the level of individual transgenic T cells, indicating an indirect control by CIITA. These results show that MHC-II-restricted Ag presentation, and its indirect influences on T cells, remains the only pathway under direct control by CIITA in vivo. They also imply that precisely regulated MHC-II expression is essential for maintaining a proper Th1-Th2 balance.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

Development of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis Vianna, 1911 in Lutzomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) under experimental conditions

The development of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis in experimentally infected Lutzomyia intermedia, showed colonization of the hindgut from 48h after the infective blood-meal, and the migration flagellates to the foregut, with a massive infection of the cardia at the 5th day post infection. Up to 10 days following the infective blood-meal, very few parasites were seen in the pharynx and cibarium. The role of L. intermedia as a vector of cutaneous leishmaniasis is discussed according to the estabilished criteria.