Região Serrana do Estado do Rio de Janeiro e a expansão dos riscos ambientais, ações preventivas e catástrofes: o caso de Petrópolis

O município de Petrópolis, palco de recorrente de problemas ambientais envolvendo movimentos de massa concentrados historicamente na sua área mais urbanizada, os distritos Sede e Cascatinha, vive nas últimas décadas um crescimento populacional que se orienta basicamente para antigas áreas rurais de Itaipava, Pedro do Rio e Posse. O objetivo geral da pesquisa é investigar como este crescimento vem ocorrendo, analisando as características geológico-geomorfológicas dos novos espaços ocupados, os fatores predisponentes às novas condições de risco envolvendo os movimentos de massa e as inundações. Assim, foi elaborado um panorama sócio-evolutivo do processo de ocupação do solo em Petrópolis, considerando especialmente a dinâmica demográfica registrada nos distritos através dos censos demográficos a partir da década de 1940. Utilizando o geoprocessamento como ferramenta e a classificação visual de segmentação de OrtofotosCarta IBGE na escala 1: 25.000, foram produzidos mapas de uso do solo para o município e distritos detalhando a área ocupada. Com o fim de atender ao diagnóstico das situações de risco foi realizado o levantamento da situação atual da ocorrência dos movimentos de massa e inundações no município, comparando levantamentos anteriores e verificando a distribuição das ocorrências e a população atingida. Por fim, a avaliação da execução da política de desenvolvimento e expansão urbana definida no Plano Diretor de Petrópolis e na Lei de Uso, Parcelamento e Ocupação do Solo, analisando o zoneamento e seus usos (rural, rururbano, urbano e zona de proteção especial) resultando no entendimento de como os aspectos normativos vem sendo tratados, naquilo que são respeitados e naquilo que não são cumpridos na dinâmica da ocupação do espaço, levantando as ações de prevenção, ou não, dos problemas ambientais. Contudo, a definição dos objetivos do trabalho teve dois momentos. O primeiro com a análise da expansão urbana construindo novas condições de risco e o segundo momento, lamentavelmente, aquele no qual as evidências ganharam contorno de realidade com o ocorrido em dezembro de 2010 e em janeiro de 2011, principalmente quando inundações bruscas associadas aos deslizamentos de terra nas encostas atingiram áreas de Petrópolis e de outros municípios da região Serrana do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, certamente, a maior tragédia ambiental ocorrida no Centro-Sul do país até então. Com mais de 900 mortos, centenas de desaparecidos e milhares de desabrigados e desalojados, os eventos suplantaram os objetivos do trabalho, colocando novas questões, ao mesmo tempo em que a realidade demonstrou a coerência e pertinência daqueles objetivos com os problemas apresentados. Assim, dentre os objetivos passou a constar também a verificação in loco das conseqüências de movimentos de massa e inundações nas áreas apontadas anteriormente, como foi o caso do vale do Rio Santo Antônio em Itaipava. O trabalho, assim, se pautou por indicar a necessidade ter-se maior atenção às novas áreas de ocupação no município, considerando a natureza do território, contribuindo como um subsídio na prevenção ao risco.

Religious Coping, Social Support and Subjective Severity as Predictors of Posttraumatic Growth in People Affected by the Earthquake in Chile on 27/2/2010

The aim of this research is to study the impact of religious coping, social support and subjective severity on Posttraumatic Growth (PTG) in people who lost their homes after the earthquake in Chile in 2010 and who now live in transitional shelters. One hundred sixteen adult men and women were evaluated using a subjective severity scale, the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI), the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS) scale of social support and the Brief RCOPE scale of religious coping. The multiple linear regression analysis shows that social support and positive religious coping have an impact on PTG. On using a bootstrap estimate, it was found that positive religious coping fully mediates the relationship between subjective severity and PTG.

Together we have it all ! Benefits of participation in collective emotional gatherings and communal coping

244 p.

Há vida em meio aos escombros: algumas práticas e efeitos da psicologia no Morro do Bumba

Tendo como panorama um bairro destruído pelas chuvas em 2010 na cidade de Niterói/RJ (Morro do Bumba) e um questionamento sobre uma tendência individualizante nas práticas psicológicas, esta pesquisa objetiva pensar práticas e efeitos da psicologia em situações de emergências e desastres. Utilizando falas de especialistas neste tema, acompanhando uma certa reivindicação de que a Psicologia das Emergências e dos Desastres seja um novo campo, uma nova disciplina, trazemos um tensionamento entre planejamentos de atuação, falas oficiais e experiências do que foi possível fazer concretamente no Morro do Bumba, pelos profissionais surpreendidos em meio ao caos daqueles dias. Assim, o presente trabalho se propõe a passear por práticas sorrateiras, intervenções subversivas, transdisciplinares, positivando que nenhuma experiência em psicologia é neutra ou objetiva na medida em que o campo de atuação provoca deslocamentos em nossos sistemas de pensamento. Neste movimento de trazer as possíveis atuações psi em resposta aos desastres ocorridos em Niterói/RJ, ante a falta de políticas públicas necessárias à assistência da população desabrigada, pensando historicamente a própria ocupação dos morros no Rio de Janeiro.

O fluxo de massa do Vieira, Teresópolis-RJ, megadesastre da serra em 2011: análise das feições sedimentológicas e de sua fenomenalogia

Em janeiro de 2011, o grande número de escorregamentos naturais e induzidos que afetaram a Região Serrana do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, durante o Megadesastre, são processos destruidores de grande impacto, mas com tempo de recorrência maior. Em particular a bacia do rio Vieira (noroeste de Teresópolis), afetada pelo evento, apresentou magnitude espetacular do desastre registrado, com os materiais mobilizados em fluxos gravitacionais de massa atingindo quilômetros de distâncias das suas escarpas principais, o que causou, horas depois, prejuízos significativos. A pesquisa da presente dissertação discutiu a caracterização destes processos e dos ambientes deposicionais, a partir da análise das feições sedimentológicas e apreciação das características mecânicas, do vale do rio Vieira para estabelecer base de conhecimento da evolução da paisagem local. O método de trabalho utilizou o reconhecimento dos condicionantes geológicos e a leitura do registro sedimentar. A corrida de massa do Vieira foi zoneada em diferentes estágios de comportamento baseado na classificação de fluxos gravitacionais de massa de Middleton e Hampton (1973). Esta classificação é adequada para linha de pesquisa, pois os autores definem fluxos gravitacionais de sedimentos como um termo geral para fluxos de sedimentos ou misturas sedimentos/fluidos, que fluem sob a ação da gravidade. Os resultados obtidos caracterizam o fenômeno do ponto de vista geológico, estratigráfico e geomorfológico. Uma corrida de massa afetou o canal do rio Vieira desde a sua nascente, na cota 1750m, até o fim da sua planície de inundação, na cota 900m; o movimento de massa com extensão de 7,5km, 30-100m de largura máxima e 4m de espessura média, causou diretamente 86 mortes e a destruição de casas e lavouras da zona rural do bairro Vieira, Teresópolis-RJ. O fluxo gravitacional do Vieira aparentemente contou com diferentes condicionantes e envolveu diferentes fases, passando pelo debrisflow e pelo mudflow, provavelmente em diferentes pulsos, e no seu estágio final para o waterflow.

Climate change and fisheries: perspectives from small-scale fishing communities in India on measures to protect life and livelihood

Through consultations with key fisheries-based stakeholders in four States of India, this study attempts to assess perceptions of fishing communities about the impact of climate change on their lives and livelihoods. It also evaluates the traditional knowledge, institutions and practices of fishing communities that are relevant to climate-change preparedness. The study identifies adaptation and mitigation measures that may need to be adopted by fishing communities and the State in relation to climate change. Based on this overall analysis, the study proposes measures to protect the lives and livelihoods of small-scale fishing communities in the context of climate-change policies and programmes at different levels. This study will be useful for researchers, policymakers, students and anyone interested in climate change and its potential effects on the lives and livelihoods of small-scale fishing communities.

PICES Press, Vol. 20, No. 1, Winter 2012

•2011 PICES Science: A Note from the Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-6) •2011 PICES Awards (pp. 7-9) •Beyond the Terrible Disaster of the Great East Japan Earthquake (pp. 10-12) •A New Era of PICES-ICES Scientific Cooperation (p. 13) •New PICES Jellyfish Working Group Formed (pp. 14-15) •PICES Working Group on North Pacific Climate Variability (pp. 16-18) •Final U.S. GLOBEC Symposium and Celebration (pp. 19-25) •2011 PICES Rapid Assessment Survey (pp. 26-29) •Introduction to Rapid Assessment Survey Methodologies for Detecting Non-indigenous Marine Species (pp. 30-31) •The 7th International Conference on Marine Bioinvasions (pp. 32-33) •NOWPAP/PICES/WESTPAC Training Course on Remote Sensing Data Analysis (pp. 34-36) •PICES-2011 Workshop on “Trends in Marine Contaminants and their Effects in a Changing Ocean” (pp. 37-39) •The State of the Western North Pacific in the First Half of 2011 (pp. 40-42) •Yeosu Symposium theme sessions (p. 42) •The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 43-44) •News of the Northeast Pacific Ocean (pp. 45-47) •Recent and Upcoming PICES Publications (p. 47) •New leadership for the PICES Fishery Science Committee (p. 48)

Knowledge, perceptions, impacts and roles of lakeside communities and institutions in the sustainable control of water hyacinth

The massive water hyacinth mats that covered water bodies in the 1990s had serious social and economic impacts. They affected fishing, transportation, water quality and health of fishing communities as well as production of goods and services of lake-based institutions (commercial establishments). At peak infestations, the communities and institutions were aware of and participated readily in control effort. However, after the major collapse of hyacinth in 1998, some of them relaxed in their control efforts. The status of knowledge, perception, impacts, preparedness and role of the lakeside communities and institutions to control the weed has, therefore, been monitored since the major resurgence of the weed to find out if the lakeside communities and institutions still perceive water hyacinth as a problem and the extent to which they are prepared to sustain control.

Community-led resettlement: From a flood affected slum to a new society in Pune, India

This paper describes the resettlement process of a community devastated by annual floods, to newly constructed housing in Pune, India. The relocation from Kamgar Putala slum to a housing society at Hadapsar was organized by a community-led NGO partnership in 2004. The housing development was coordinated by the local NGO Shelter Associates with significant community participation. The housing has been revisited in 2010 to evaluate the sustainability of the resettlement project’s delivery model via stakeholder perception. The process of organizing for resettlement after natural disaster is described along with the implementation and evaluation of the new housing nearly six years after initial occupation. The strong partnership approach overcame a series of political and financial hurdles at various stages of the relocation project. The story of resettling Kamgar Putala is detailed alongside an outline of the current political climate for an alternative slum-upgrading policy in India and Pune. The advantages of an empowered community supported by an influential local NGO demonstrate a commendable team effort which has tackled the threat of floods. The paper highlights the merits of a community-led partnership approach to housing development for achieving sustainable urban development as well as the alleviation of poverty in a developing context.

Automated Detection of Concrete Columns from Visual Data

After earthquakes, licensed inspectors use the established codes to assess the impact of damage on structural elements. It always takes them days to weeks. However, emergency responders (e.g. firefighters) must act within hours of a disaster event to enter damaged structures to save lives, and therefore cannot wait till an official assessment completes. This is a risk that firefighters have to take. Although Search and Rescue Organizations offer training seminars to familiarize firefighters with structural damage assessment, its effectiveness is hard to guarantee when firefighters perform life rescue and damage assessment operations together. Also, the training is not available to every firefighter. The authors therefore proposed a novel framework that can provide firefighters with a quick but crude assessment of damaged buildings through evaluating the visible damage on their critical structural elements (i.e. concrete columns in the study). This paper presents the first step of the framework. It aims to automate the detection of concrete columns from visual data. To achieve this, the typical shape of columns (long vertical lines) is recognized using edge detection and the Hough transform. The bounding rectangle for each pair of long vertical lines is then formed. When the resulting rectangle resembles a column and the material contained in the region of two long vertical lines is recognized as concrete, the region is marked as a concrete column surface. Real video/image data are used to test the method. The preliminary results indicate that concrete columns can be detected when they are not distant and have at least one surface visible.

Community-led resettlement: From a flood-affected slum to a new society in Pune, India

This paper describes the resettlement process of a community devastated by annual floods, to newly constructed housing in Pune, India. The relocation from Kamgar Putala slum to a housing society at Hadapsar was organized by a community-led NGO partnership in 2004. The housing development was coordinated by the local NGO Shelter Associates with significant community participation. The housing has been revisited in 2010 to evaluate the sustainability of the resettlement project's delivery model via stakeholder perception. The process of organizing for resettlement after natural disaster is described along with the implementation and evaluation of the new housing nearly six years after initial occupation. The strong partnership approach overcame a series of political and financial hurdles at various stages of the relocation project. The story of resettling Kamgar Putala is detailed alongside an outline of the current political climate for an alternative slum-upgrading policy in India and Pune. The advantages of an empowered community supported by an influential local NGO demonstrate a commendable team effort which has tackled the threat of floods. The paper highlights the merits of a community-led partnership approach to housing development for achieving sustainable urban development as well as the alleviation of poverty in a developing context. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Digital elevation models and GIS for watershed modelling and flood prediction-A case study of Accra Ghana

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to perform many geospatial and hydrological modelling including drainage and watershed delineation, flood prediction and physical development studies of urban and rural settlements. This paper explores the use of contour data and planimetric features extracted from topographic maps to derive digital elevation models (DEMs) for watershed delineation and flood impact analysis (for emergency preparedness) of part of Accra, Ghana in a GIS environment. In the study two categories of DEMs were developed with 5 m contour and planimetric topographic data; bare earth DEM and built environment DEM. These derived DEMs were used as terrain inputs for performing spatial analysis and obtaining derivative products. The generated DEMs were used to delineate drainage patterns and watershed of the study area using ArcGIS desktop and its ArcHydro extension tool from Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). A vector-based approach was used to derive inundation areas at various flood levels. The DEM of built-up areas was used as inputs for determining properties which will be inundated in a flood event and subsequently generating flood inundation maps. The resulting inundation maps show that about 80% areas which have perennially experienced extensive flooding in the city falls within the predicted flood extent. This approach can therefore provide a simplified means of predicting the extent of inundation during flood events for emergency action especially in less developed economies where sophisticated technologies and expertise are hard to come by. © 2009 Springer Netherlands.

Digital Elevation Models and GIS for watershed modelling and flood prediction - A case study of Accra Ghana

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to perform many geospatial and hydrological modelling including drainage and watershed delineation, flood prediction and physical development studies of urban and rural settlements. This paper explores the use of contour data and planimetric features extracted from topographic maps to derive digital elevation models (DEMs) for watershed delineation and flood impact analysis (for emergency preparedness) of part of Accra, Ghana in a GIS environment. In the study two categories of DEMs were developed with 5 m contour and planimetric topographic data; bare earth DEM and built environment DEM. These derived DEMs were used as terrain inputs for performing spatial analysis and obtaining derivative products. The generated DEMs were used to delineate drainage patterns and watershed of the study area using ArcGIS desktop and its ArcHydro extension tool from Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). A vector-based approach was used to derive inundation areas at various flood levels. The DEM of built-up areas was used as inputs for determining properties which will be inundated in a flood event and subsequently generating flood inundation maps. The resulting inundation maps show that about 80% areas which have perennially experienced extensive flooding in the city falls within the predicted flood extent. This approach can therefore provide a simplified means of predicting the extent of inundation during flood events for emergency action especially in less developed economies where sophisticated technologies and expertise are hard to come by. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

森林流域单元水文模型的构建与应用

目前全球缺水、水污染、洪涝灾害以及水土流失仍然非常严重，尤其在我国北方地区。流域水文模型可用来进行不同需水管理的情景分析，为解决我国水问题提供科学依据。分布式水文模型是流域水文模型的发展方向，具有显著特点：1）应用前景广泛，不仅可以模拟流域水文过程，还可以协助模拟泥沙或污染物的运移过程，为水利工程设计、水土保持、环境保护等领域提供技术支持；2）能够预测流域土地利用或气候变化下的流域水文响应过程变化，为管理部门提供决策支持；3）模型所需要的参数全部具有物理意义，可通过实际测量确定，适合模拟实测系列较短或是无观测流域的水文过程；4）对于目前国际水文界的前沿问题—水文尺度转换提供了一种有效的解决途径。 然而分布式水文模型还不完善，如1)真实性问题。对一些水文过程和边界条件还不确定。2)尺度转换问题。目前很少考虑尺度对参数有效性的影响。3)检验问题。还无法判断对有些难以测量的水文状态变量的模拟正确与否。4)计算时间和数据存储的问题。有些分布式水文模型虽然具有很强的水文物理基础和完善的模型结构，但是计算时间过长和(或)数据存储过大，难以应用。上述问题的核心就是对分布式水文模型的核心—单元水文模型的研究不够，需要为进一步完善单元水文模型进行研究。 本文采用饱和入渗理论、Saint-Venant方程、Richards方程、Penman-Monteith方程等等构建了以有限差分法求解的适用于森林流域的单元水文模型，并通过实验室模拟试验和坡地径流场资料进行了验证，主要结论为： 通过不同坡度和不同雨强下的室内坡面产汇流实验模拟，表明：该模型模拟的坡面流和壤中流过程与实测过程基本一致，峰现时间、径流历时、峰值流量、出流总量模拟值与实测值的相对误差均较小，基本小于10%。模型的模拟精度较高，实用性较强，为深入研究壤中流机制和改进流域降雨-径流模型提供了理论依据。 通过坡地径流观测场实测资料的验证，表明：该模型模拟的坡面流过程精度较高，累计流量的精度更高于小时过程的精度，离差系数、效率系数、确定系数均较理想，具有应用价值，有助于改善分布式水文模型在森林流域的模拟效果。