A machine learning approach to intraday trading on foreign exchange markets

Foreign Exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. In this paper we try to create such a system using Machine learning approach to emulate trader behaviour on the Foreign Exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.

An implementation of genetic algorithms as a basis for a trading system on the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process is very helpful. In this paper, we try to create such a system with a genetic algorithm engine to emulate trader behaviour on the foreign exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.

Using the Internet for Physical Activity Promotion in a Regional Community: Feasibility Study Findings

New communication technologies (websites and email) are believed to hold promise for delivering population health interventions. However, studies on internet-delivered physical activity (PA) programs have encountered difficulties in engaging and retaining participants. Recent PA research has focused on peoples’ perceptions of the local environment and how this relates to PA participation. This study investigated the potential of: 1) reaching people living in a regional community via a locally-based Internet Service Provider (ISP), and 2) using data on the local environment to design a PA intervention relevant to the individual. An online survey was conducted via the ISP’s website over 12 days. ISP clients (approximately 9,000) were invited to participate in the survey via electronic newsletter and direct email. Data on motivational readiness and environmental correlates of PA were collected. 820 surveys were completed, of which 797 were valid (response rate = 9%). Participants had a mean BMI 27.6±8.3, were 55% male, 56% aged >45 years, 57% worked fulltime, and 36% were in the early stages of motivational readiness for PA. Most reported positive perceptions of the local environment in terms of aesthetics, convenience, access, traffic and safety. However, over half did not know about or use local PA facilities. Over 70% were somewhat to extremely interested in having access to a PA promotion website. These data suggest that promoting PA via a locally based ISP is feasible and appealing to some people living in a regional community, but also highlight some of the challenges of using this technology to deliver population health interventions.

Direct femtosecond laser inscription in transparent dielectrics

Since 1996 direct femtosecond inscription in transparent dielectrics has become the subject of intensive research. This enabling technology significantly expands the technological boundaries for direct fabrication of 3D structures in a wide variety of materials. It allows modification of non-photosensitive materials, which opens the door to numerous practical applications. In this work we explored the direct femtosecond inscription of waveguides and demonstrated at least one order of magnitude enhancement in the most critical parameter - the induced contrast of the refractive index in a standard borosilicate optical glass. A record high induced refractive contrast of 2.5×10-2 is demonstrated. The waveguides fabricated possess one of the lowest losses, approaching level of Fresnel reflection losses at the glassair interface. High refractive index contrast allows the fabrication of curvilinear waveguides with low bend losses. We also demonstrated the optimisation of the inscription regimes in BK7 glass over a broad range of experimental parameters and observed a counter-intuitive increase of the induced refractive index contrast with increasing translation speed of a sample. Examples of inscription in a number of transparent dielectrics hosts using high repetition rate fs laser system (both glasses and crystals) are also presented. Sub-wavelength scale periodic inscription inside any material often demands supercritical propagation regimes, when pulse peak power is more than the critical power for selffocusing, sometimes several times higher than the critical power. For a sub-critical regime, when the pulse peak power is less than the critical power for self-focusing, we derive analytic expressions for Gaussian beam focusing in the presence of Kerr non-linearity as well as for a number of other beam shapes commonly used in experiments, including astigmatic and ring-shaped ones. In the part devoted to the fabrication of periodic structures, we report on recent development of our point-by-point method, demonstrating the shortest periodic perturbation created in the bulk of a pure fused silica sample, by using third harmonics (? =267 nm) of fundamental laser frequency (? =800 nm) and 1 kHz femtosecond laser system. To overcome the fundamental limitations of the point-by-point method we suggested and experimentally demonstrated the micro-holographic inscription method, which is based on using the combination of a diffractive optical element and standard micro-objectives. Sub-500 nm periodic structures with a much higher aspect ratio were demonstrated. From the applications point of view, we demonstrate examples of photonics devices by direct femtosecond fabrication method, including various vectorial bend-sensors fabricated in standard optical fibres, as well as a highly birefringent long-period gratings by direct modulation method. To address the intrinsic limitations of femtosecond inscription at very shallow depths we suggested the hybrid mask-less lithography method. The method is based on precision ablation of a thin metal layer deposited on the surface of the sample to create a mask. After that an ion-exchange process in the melt of Ag-containing salts allows quick and low-cost fabrication of shallow waveguides and other components of integrated optics. This approach covers the gap in direct fs inscription of shallow waveguide. Perspectives and future developments of direct femtosecond micro-fabrication are also discussed.

Phosphorylation and membrane dissociation of the ARF exchange factor GBF1 in mitosis

Secretory protein trafficking is arrested and the Golgi apparatus fragmented when mammalian cells enter mitosis. These changes are thought to facilitate cell cycle progression and Golgi inheritance, and are brought about through the actions of mitotically active protein kinases. To better understand how the Golgi apparatus undergoes mitotic fragmentation we have sought to identify novel Golgi targets for mitotic kinases. We report here the identification of the ARF exchange factor GBF1 as a Golgi phosphoprotein. GBF1 is phosphorylated by CDK1-cyclin B in mitosis, which results in its dissociation from Golgi membranes. Consistent with a reduced level of GBF1 activity at the Golgi membrane there is a reduction in levels of membrane-associated GTP-bound ARF in mitotic cells. Despite the reduced levels of membrane bound GBF1 and ARF, COPI binding to the Golgi membrane appears unaffected in mitotic cells. Surprisingly, this pool of COPI is dependent upon GBF1 for its recruitment to the membrane, suggesting a low level of GBF1 activity persists in mitosis. We propose that the phosphorylation and membrane dissociation of GBF1 and the consequent reduction in ARF-GTP levels in mitosis are important for changes in Golgi dynamics and possibly other mitotic events mediated through effectors other than the COPI vesicle coat.

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

The exchange rate exposure of UK non-financial companies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK nonfinancial companies from January 1981 to December 2001. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs different exchange rate measures and adopts an equally weighted exchange rate. The analyses are conducted at the firm level. All analyses are conducted by regressing the firm’s exchange rate exposure coefficients on its size, foreign activity variables and financial hedging proxies over the whole sample period. Findings – The findings show that a higher percentage of UK non-financial companies are exposed to exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. Generally, the results provide a stronger support for the suggested equally weighted rate as an economic variable, which affects firms’ stock returns. The results also show a high proportion of positive exposure coefficients among firms with significant exchange rate exposure, indicating a higher proportion of firms benefiting from an appreciation of the pound. Finally, the results also indicate evidence that firms’ foreign operations and hedging variables affect their sensitivity to exchange rate exposure. Practical implications – This study provides important implications for public policymakers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth effects. Originality/value – The empirical results of this study should help investors to examine how common stock returns react to exchange rate fluctuations when making financial decisions, and prove useful for financial managers when measuring exposure to foreign exchange rate changes.

The importance of clusters for spillovers from foreign direct investment and technology sourcing

This paper examines the link between cluster development and inward foreign direct investment. The conventional policy approach has been to assume that inward foreign direct investment (FDI) can stimulate significant clustering activity, thus generating significant spillovers. This paper, however, questions this and shows that, while clusters can generate significant productivity spillovers from FDI, this only occurs in pre-existing clusters. Further, the paper demonstrates that foreign-owned firms that enter clusters also appropriate spillovers when domestic firms undertake investment, raising the possibility that clusters are important locations for so called technology, or knowledge sourcing activities by MNEs. © 2006 Oxford University Press.

Sales force social exchange in problem resolution situations

While sales managers spend much of their time resolving sales force-related problems, existing theory offers little insight into the social exchange processes which occur in problem resolution situations. Using a qualitative inquiry method rooted in grounded theory, we uncover three key social exchange contributions used by sales managers when dealing with problem situations in the sales force: sales manager responsiveness, caring, and aggressiveness. We then show that the extent to which managers use these exchange contributions in problem situations is a function of manager characteristics, problem-specific characteristics, and the situational context. We also show that the extent to which managers invest in these three social exchange contributions has implications for the quality for the interpersonal relationships between salespeople and their managers, and for the effectiveness of problem resolution activity.

The missing link:Analogous human and primate cortical gamma oscillations

Recent animal studies highlighting the relationship between functional imaging signals and the underlying neuronal activity have revealed the potential capabilities of non-invasive methods. However, the valuable exchange of information between animal and human studies remains restricted by the limited evidence of direct physiological links between species. In this study we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to investigate the occurrence of 30-70 Hz (gamma) oscillations in human visual cortex, induced by the presentation of visual stimuli of varying contrast. These oscillations, well described in the animal literature, were observed in retinotopically concordant locations of visual cortex and show striking similarity to those found in primate visual cortex using surgically implanted electrodes. The amplitude of the gamma oscillations increases linearly with stimulus contrast in strong correlation with the gamma oscillations found in the local field potential (LFP) of the macaque. We demonstrate that non-invasive magnetic field measurements of gamma oscillations in human visual cortex concur with invasive measures of activation in primate visual cortex, suggesting both a direct representation of underlying neuronal activity and a concurrence between human and primate cortical activity. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pharmacologically induced and stimulus evoked rhythmic neuronal oscillatory activity in the primary motor cortex in vitro

Parkinson's disease (PD) is associated with enhanced synchronization of neuronal network activity in the beta (15-30 Hz) frequency band across several nuclei of the basal ganglia (BG). Deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) appears to reduce this pathological oscillation, thereby alleviating PD symptoms. However, direct stimulation of primary motor cortex (M1) has recently been shown to be effective in reducing symptoms in PD, suggesting a role for cortex in patterning pathological rhythms. Here, we examine the properties of M1 network oscillations in coronal slices taken from rat brain. Oscillations in the high beta frequency range (layer 5, 27.8 +/- 1.1 Hz, n=6) were elicited by co-application of the glutamate receptor agonist kainic acid (400 nM) and muscarinic receptor agonist carbachol (50 mu M). Dual extracellular recordings, local application of tetrodotoxin and recordings in M1 micro-sections indicate that the activity originates within deep layers V/VI. Beta oscillations were unaffected by specific AMPA receptor blockade, abolished by the GABA type A receptor (GABAAR) antagonist picrotoxin and the gap-junction blocker carbenoxolone, and modulated by pentobarbital and zolpidem indicating dependence on networks of GABAergic interneurons and electrical coupling. High frequency stimulation (HFS) at 125 Hz in superficial layers, designed to mimic transdural/transcranial stimulation, generated gamma oscillations in layers 11 and V (incidence 95%, 69.2 +/- 7.3 Hz, n=17) with very fast oscillatory components (VFO; 100-250 Hz). Stimulation at 4 Hz, however, preferentially promoted theta activity (incidence 62.5%, 5.1 +/- 0.6 Hz, n=15) that effected strong amplitude modulation of ongoing beta activity. Stimulation at 20 Hz evoked mixed theta and gamma responses. These data suggest that within M1, evoked theta, gamma and fast oscillations may coexist with and in some cases modulate pharmacologically induced beta oscillations.

Do changes in transglutaminase activity alter latent transforming growth factor beta activation in experimental diabetic nephropathy?

Background. Diabetic nephropathy is the leading cause of end-stage kidney failure worldwide. It is characterized by excessive extracellular matrix accumulation. Transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGF-ß1) is a fibrogenic cytokine playing a major role in the healing process and scarring by regulating extracellular matrix turnover, cell proliferation and epithelial mesanchymal transdifferentiation. Newly synthesized TGF-ß is released as a latent, biologically inactive complex. The cross-linking of the large latent TGF-ß to the extracellular matrix by transglutaminase 2 (TG2) is one of the key mechanisms of recruitment and activation of this cytokine. TG2 is an enzyme catalyzing an acyl transfer reaction leading to the formation of a stable e(?-glutamyl)-lysine cross-link between peptides.Methods. To investigate if changes in TG activity can modulate TGF-ß1 activation, we used the mink lung cell bioassay to assess TGF-ß activity in the streptozotocin model of diabetic nephropathy treated with TG inhibitor NTU281 and in TG2 overexpressing opossum kidney (OK) proximal tubular epithelial cells.Results. Application of the site-directed TG inhibitor NTU281 caused a 25% reduction in kidney levels of active TGF-ß1. Specific upregulation of TG2 in OK proximal tubular epithelial cells increased latent TGF-ß recruitment and activation by 20.7% and 19.7%, respectively, in co-cultures with latent TGF-ß binding protein producing fibroblasts.Conclusions. Regulation of TG2 directly influences the level of active TGF-ß1, and thus, TG inhibition may exert a renoprotective effect by targeting not only a direct extracellular matrix deposition but also TGF-ß1 activation and recruitment.

An empirical investigation of the effect of rights issue announcements on share returns and the determinants of abnormal returns on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

This thesis examines the effect of rights issue announcements on stock prices by companies listed on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) between 1987 to 1996. The emphasis is to report whether the KLSE is semi strongly efficient with respect to the announcement of rights issues and to check whether the implications of corporate finance theories on the effect of an event can be supported in the context of an emerging market. Once the effect is established, potential determinants of abnormal returns identified by previous empirical work and corporate financial theory are analysed. By examining 70 companies making clean rights issue announcements, this thesis will hopefully shed light on some important issues in long term corporate financing. Event study analysis is used to check on the efficiency of the Malaysian stock market; while cross-sectional regression analysis is executed to identify possible explanators of the rights issue announcements' effect. To ensure the results presented are not contaminated, econometric and statistical issues raised in both analyses have been taken into account. Given the small amount of empirical research conducted in this part of the world, the results of this study will hopefully be of use to investors, security analysts, corporate financial managements, regulators and policy makers as well as those who are interested in capital market based research of an emerging market. It is found that the Malaysian stock market is not semi strongly efficient since there exists a persistent non-zero abnormal return. This finding is not consistent with the hypothesis that security returns adjust rapidly to reflect new information. It may be possible that the result is influenced by the sample, consisting mainly of below average size companies which tend to be thinly traded. Nevertheless, these issues have been addressed. Another important issue which has emerged from the study is that there is some evidence to suggest that insider trading activity existed in this market. In addition to these findings, when the rights issue announcements' effect is compared to the implications of corporate finance theories in predicting the sign of abnormal returns, the signalling model, asymmetric information model, perfect substitution hypothesis and Scholes' information hypothesis cannot be supported.

The DHR1 domain of DOCK180 binds to SNX5 and regulates cation-independent mannose 6-phosphate receptor transport

DOCK180 is the archetype of the DOCK180-family guanine nucleotide exchange factor for small GTPases Rac1 and Cdc42. DOCK180-family proteins share two conserved domains, called DOCK homology region (DHR)-1 and -2. Although the function of DHR2 is to activate Rac1, DHR1 is required for binding to phosphoinositides. To better understand the function of DHR1, we searched for its binding partners by direct nanoflow liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry, and we identified sorting nexins (SNX) 1, 2, 5, and 6, which make up a multimeric protein complex mediating endosome-to-trans-Golgi-network (TGN) retrograde transport of the cation-independent mannose 6-phosphate receptor (CI-MPR). Among these SNX proteins, SNX5 was coimmunoprecipitated with DOCK180 most efficiently. In agreement with this observation, DOCK180 colocalized with SNX5 at endosomes. The RNA interference-mediated knockdowns of SNX5 and DOCK180, but not Rac1, resulted in the redistribution of CI-MPR from TGN to endosomes. Furthermore, expression of the DOCK180 DHR1 domain was sufficient to restore the perturbed CI-MPR distribution in DOCK180 knockdown cells. These data suggest that DOCK180 regulates CI-MPR trafficking via SNX5 and that this function is independent of its guanine nucleotide exchange factor activity toward Rac1.

Measurement of productivity and cost of the direct labour organisation within highways maintenance departments

The objective of this thesis is to investigate, through an empirical study, the different functions of the highways maintenance departments and to suggest methods by means of which road maintenance work could be carried out in a more efficient way by utilising its resources of men, material and plant to the utmost advantage. This is particularly important under the present circumstances of national financial difficulties which have resulted in continuous cuts in public expenditure. In order to achieve this objective, the researcher carried out a survey among several Highways Authorities by means of questionnaire and interview. The information so collected was analysed in order to understand the actual, practical situation within highways manintenance departments, and highlight any existing problems, and try to answer the question of how they could become more efficient. According to the results obtained by the questionnaire and the interview, and the analysis of these results, the researcher concludes that it is the management system where least has been done, and where problems exist and are most complex. The management of highways maintenance departments argue that the reasons for their problems include both financial and organisational difficulties, apart from the political aspect and nature of the activities undertaken. The researcher believes that this ought to necessitate improving the management's analytical tools and techniques in order to achieve the most effective way of performing each activity. To this end the researcher recommends several related procedures to be adopted by the management of the highways maintenance departments. These recommendations, arising from the study, involve the technical, practical and human aspects. These are essential factors of which management should be aware - and certainly should not neglect - in order to achieve its objectives of improved productivity in the highways maintenance departments.