Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Beach monitoring project Sand Key Phase II Beach nourishment program (North Redington Beach and Redington Shores) Post-Nourishment Report Part II Offshore Profiles and Wave Data

This study presents the third post-nourishment survey (January 1989) results for the Sand Key Phase II beach nourishment project carried out in June, 1988. The monitoring program to this beach nourishment project is a joint effort between the University of South Florida and University of Florida. The field surveys include a total of 26 profiles, encompassing approximately 3 miles of shoreline extending from DNR R-96 to R-1ll. The total calculated volume loss of sand in the nourished segment (from R-99G to R-107) between the July 88 and January 89 surveys is 51,113 cubic yards, which is a loss about 9.7 percent of 529,150 cubic yards actually placed in the nourishment project. The total loss of sand computed in the entire survey area is 26,796 cubic yards, which is only 5.1 percent of the sand placed in the nourishment project. It is stressed that a part of these net volume reductions is due to the background erosion and not due to spreading losses induced by the nourishment project. (PDF contains 168 pages.)

Aquatic Vegetation, Largemouth Bass and Water Quality Responses to Low-Dose Fluridone Two Years Post Treatment

Whole-lake techniques are increasingly being used to selectively remove exotic plants, including Eurasian watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.). Fluridone (1-methyl-3-phenyl- 5-[3-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]-4(1 H )-pyridinone), a systemic whole-lake herbicide, is selective for Eurasian watermilfoil within a narrow low concentration range. Because fluridone applications have the potential for large effects on plant assemblages and lake food webs, they should be evaluated at the whole-lake scale. We examined effects of low-dose (5 to 8 ppb) fluridone applications by comparing submersed plant assemblages, water quality and largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) growth rates and diets between three reference lakes and three treatment lakes one- and two-years post treatment. In the treatment lakes, fluridone reduced Eurasian watermilfoil cover without reducing native plant cover, although the duration of Eurasian watermilfoil reduction varied among treatment lakes. (PDF has 11 pages.)

Impacto de las políticas crediticias de la banca en los resultados ex post : una aproximación desde las teorías económicas del ciclo crediticio

[ES]Este trabajo se centra en el análisis de la relación entre las políticas crediticias de las entidades de crédito y el comportamiento de las mismas ex post. Se hace una revisión de la teoría que justifica que los mercados crediticios pueden estar sujetos, en determinadas circunstancias, a un componente endógeno más elevado de lo que, en general, se atribuye. Se plantea como hipótesis de trabajo la existencia de una relación entre la intensidad en el crecimiento de la cartera crediticia de los bancos en las fases de expansión crediticia y su comportamiento ex post. Los resultados preliminares presentados confirman la hipótesis de que las entidades que más desvían su crecimiento crediticio respecto del crecimiento del PIB nominal, están sujetas a un peor comportamiento en cuanto a la evolución posterior de sus beneficios, rentabilidades e insolvencias.

Explorando la relación entre políticas crediticias y resultados de la banca española ex-post

© Este trabajo está licenciado bajo la licencia Creative Commons Attribution 3.0.

Itzulpen automatikorako tresnen egokitzapena euskararako: post-edizioa, ebaluazioa eta aurre-edizioa

Proiektu honetan zehar Itzulpen Automatikoa eta horren inguruko tresnen inguruan jorratu da. Lengoaia Naturalaren Prozesamendua eta itzulpen automatikoa ikasi eta aztertu egin dira ikuspuntu zabal batetik. Itzulpen automatiko orokorraz eta horren aplikazio mota desberdinetatik gain, bestelako kontzeptuak ere tratatu dira, hala nola, itzulpenean laguntzeko tresnak, itzulpen automatikoaren ebaluazioa eta itzulpen automatikorako testuen aurre-edizioa eta post-edizioa. Ikasketa- eta aztertze-prozesu horretaz gain, erlazionatuta dauden tresnak erabili edota moldatu egin dira euskararako itzulpen automatikoan barne. Hiru atal nagusi nabarmendu daitezke: Lehenengo, OmegaT, itzulpenean laguntzeko softwarea, moldatu da Matxin euskararako itzultzaile automatikoa gehituz. Gainera, IXA Taldearen eta Euskal Wikipediaren arteko kolaborazio-lanean, Wikipediako artikuluak eskuratu, itzuli eta igotzeko aukera egokitu zaio OmegaT-ri eta horren erabilera sustatu da Euskal Wikipediako komunitatean eta UPV/EHUko Informatikako ikasle eta irakaslegoaren artean. Bestalde, lan honetaz baliatuz, OmegaT-k sortzen dituen itzulpen-memoriak, Matxin-en itzulpenen gaineko post-edizioan oinarrituak, eskuratzeko modu bat egin da, horiekin Matxin-en funtzionamendua hobetu ahal izateko. Ondoren, Asiya programan integratu egin da euskara. Asiya-k itzulpen automatikoaren ebaluazio eta meta-ebaluazioak egin ditzakeen aplikazioa da. Hainbat metrika aztertu dira euskara aztertzeko balio ote duten begiratzeko. Besteen artean, lau metrikari euskara gehitzeko saiakera egin nahi izan da IXA Taldeko euskarazko testuen analizatzaile batek eskainitako informazio sintaktikoa gehituz, baina bi metrika soilik egokitu ahal izan dira. Azkenik, DiSeg esaldi-segmentatzailea erabili egin da gaztelerazko corpus baten gainean esaldi luzeak banatzeko. Aurre-edizio hori eta gero itzuli egin dira eta Asiya erabiliz emaitzen ebaluazioa eta konparazioa egin dira, esaldi laburragoekin itzulpen automatiko eraginkorragoa lortzen oten den aztertzeko.

Post-cyclic Strength Degradation of Undisturbed and Remolded Marine Silty Clay

A series of static and cyclic-static tri-axial compression tests under consolidated-undrained conditions are carried out to study the characteristics of post-cyclic strength of the undisturbed and the remolded samples of marine silty clay. It is found that the post-cyclic monotonic strength decreases if the cyclic strain or pore pressure is over a certain value. The maximum degradation is 10% for undisturbed samples while 70% for remolded ones. The relationship between normalized undrained shear strength and apparent overconsolidation ratio, which is determined by the excess pore pressure induced by cyclic loading, is also established. Static consolidated-undrained tests on overconsolidated remolded samples are also performed. It is proposed that the static consolidated-undrained tests may be substituted for the cyclic-static consolidated-undrained tests if the post-cyclic strength degradation of remolded silty clay is needed to be evaluated simply.

Report on Marine Mammal Unusual Mortality Event UMESE0501Sp: Multispecies Mass Stranding of Pilot Whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus), Minke Whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), and Dwarf Sperm Whales (Kogia sima) in North Carolina on 15-16 January 2005

On 15-16 January 2005, three offshore species of cetaceans (33 short-finned pilot whales, Globicephala macrorhynchus, one minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata, and two dwarf sperm whales, Kogia sima) stranded alive on the beaches of North Carolina. The pilot whales stranded near Oregon Inlet, the minke whale in northern North Carolina, and the dwarf sperm whales near Cape Hatteras. Live strandings of three species in one weekend was unique in North Carolina and qualified as an Unusual Mortality Event. Gross necropsies were conducted on 16-17 January 2005 on 27 pilot whales, two dwarf sperm whales, and the minke whale. Samples were collected for clinical pathology, parasitology, gross pathology, histopathology, microbiology and serology. There was variation in the number of animals sampled for each collection type, however, due to carcasses washing off the beach or degradation in carcass condition during the course of the response. Comprehensive histologic examination was conducted on 16 pilot whales, both dwarf sperm whales, and the minke whale. Limited organ or only head tissue suites were obtained from nine pilot whales. Histologic examination of tissues began in February 2005 and concluded in December 2005 when final sampling was concluded. Neither the pilot whales nor dwarf sperm whales were emaciated although none had recently ingested prey in their stomachs. The minke whale was emaciated; it was likely a dependent calf that became separated from the female. Most serum biochemistry abnormalities appear to have resulted from the stranding and indicated deteriorating condition from being on land for an extended period. Three pilot whales had clinical evidence of pre-existing systemic inflammation, which was supported by histopathologic findings. Although gross and histologic lesions involving all organ systems were noted, consistent lesions were not observed across species. Verminous pterygoid sinusitis and healed fishery interactions were seen in pilot whales but neither of these changes were causes of debilitation or death. In three pilot whales and one dwarf sperm whale there was evidence of clinically significant disease in postcranial tissues which led to chronic debilitation. Cardiovascular disease was present in one pilot whale and one dwarf sperm whale; musculoskeletal disease and intra-abdominal granulomas were present in two pilot whales. These lesions were possible, but not definitive, causal factors in the stranding. Remaining lesions were incidental or post-stranding. The minke whale and three of five tested pilot whales had positive morbillivirus titers (≥1:8 with one at >1:256), but there was no histologic evidence of active viral infection. Parasites (nematodes, cestodes, and trematodes) were collected from 26 pilot whales and two dwarf sperm whales. Sites of collection included stomach, nasal/pterygoid, peribullar sinuses, blubber, and abdominal cavity. Parasite species, locations and loads were within normal limits for free-ranging cetaceans and were not considered causative for the stranding event. Gas emboli lesions which were considered consistent with or diagnostic of sonarassociated strandings of beaked whales or small cetaceans were not found in the whales stranded as part of UMESE0501Sp. Twenty-five heads were examined with nine specific anatomic locations of interest: extramandibular fat, intramandibular fat, auditory meatus, peribullar acoustic fat, peribullar soft tissue, peribullar sinus, pterygoid sinus, melon, and brain. The common finding in all examined heads was verminous pterygoid sinusitis. Intramandibular adipose tissue reddening, typically adjacent to the vascular plexus, was observed in some individuals and could represent localized hemorrhage resulting from vascular rete rupture, hypostatic congestion, or erythrocyte rupture during the freeze/thaw cycle. One cetacean had peracute to acute subdural hemorrhage that likely occurred from thrashing on the beach post-stranding, although its occurrence prior to stranding cannot be excluded. Information provided to NMFS by the U.S. Navy indicated routine tactical mid-frequency sonar operations from individual surface vessels over relatively short durations and small spatial scales within the area and time period investigated. No marine mammals were detected by marine mammal observers on operational vessels; standard operating procedure for surface naval vessels operating mid-frequency sonar is the use of trained visual lookouts using high-powered binoculars. Sound propagation modeling using information provided to NMFS indicated that acoustic conditions in the vicinity likely depended heavily on position of the receivers (e.g., range, bearing, depth) relative to that of the sources. Absent explicit information on the location of animals meant that it was not possible to estimate received acoustic exposures from active sonar transmissions. Nonetheless, the event was associated in time and space with naval activity using mid-frequency active sonar. It also had a number of features in common (e.g., the “atypical” distribution of strandings involving multiple offshore species, all stranding alive, and without evidence of common infectious or other disease process) with other sonar-related cetacean mass stranding events. Given that this event was the only stranding of offshore species to occur within a 2-3 day period in the region on record (i.e., a very rare event), and given the occurrence of the event simultaneously in time and space with a naval exercise using active sonar, the association between the naval sonar activity and the location and timing of the event could be a causal rather than a coincidental relationship. However, evidence supporting a definitive association is lacking, and, in particular, there are differences in operational/environmental characteristics between this event and previous events where sonar has apparently played a role in marine mammal strandings. This does not preclude behavorial avoidance of noise exposure. No harmful algal blooms were present along the Atlantic coast south of the Chesapeake Bay during the months prior to the event. Environmental conditions, including strong winds, changes in upwelling- to downwelling-favorable conditions, and gently sloping bathymetry, were consistent with conditions which have been correlated with other mass strandings. In summary, we did not find commonality in gross and histologic lesions that would indicate a single cause for this stranding event. Three pilot whales and one dwarf sperm whale had debilitating conditions identified that could have contributed to stranding, one pilot whale had a debilitating condition (subdural hemorrhage) that could have been present prior to or resulting from stranding. While the pilot and dwarf sperm whale strandings may have had a common cause, the minke whale stranding was probably just coincidental. On the basis of examination of physical evidence in the affected whales, however, we cannot definitively conclude that there was or was not a causal link between anthropogenic sonar activity or environmental conditions (or a combination of these factors) and the strandings. Overall, the cause of UMESE0501Sp in North Carolina is not and likely will not be definitively known. (PDF contains 240 pages)

Genetics of Type III Bartter Syndrome in Spain, Proposed Diagnostic Algorithm

9 p.

The intestine as a diagnostic character in identifying certain clupeoids (Engraulididae, Clupeidae, Dussumieriidae) and as a morphometric character for comparing anchoveta (Centengraulis mysticetus) populations

ENGLISH: The several species of clupeoid fishes used as baitfish in the Eastern Pacific tuna fishery are, in some cases, sufficiently similar to make identification difficult. During a review of the anatomy of the intestine of clupeoid fishes it was observed that the morphology of the intestine is sometimes a useful character in the identification of systematic groups. The genera at least can be distinguished by means of the topographical anatomy of the intestines. This also may be a useful character because it is often found that a species occurs in the same area as another species that may be confused with it on external inspection, although it belongs to a different genus. SPANISH: La gran similitud morfológica de varias especies del órden Clupeoidea usadas como cebo en la pesquería de atún del Pacifíco Oriental, hace que su identificación sea en algunos casos difícil. Al realizar una revisión anatómica del intestino de los peces clupeoides, se observó que la morfología del mismo es a veces un carácter útil para la identificación de los diversos grupos sistemáticos. Al menos los géneros pueden ser distinguidos por medio de la anatomía topográfica de los intestinos. Esto también puede ser un carácter útil, puesto que a menudo dos especies pertenecientes a géneros diferentes y que ocupen la misma área, pueden ser confundidos si nos basamos solamente en la morfología externa. (PDF contains 24 pages.)

Vergleichende Texturuntersuchungen an Filets von Kliesche (Limanda limanda) und Scholle (Pleuronectes platessa) in Abhängigkeit von Eislagerzeit post mortem, TK-Lagerung und Erhitzen

Instrumental investigations of texture have been performed using texture profile analysis. The following textural parameters have been assessed: hardness, gumminess, chewiness, springiness, cohesiveness and adhesiveness. The fillets of both species have been prepared from deep frozen headed and gutted raw material without fins after frozen storage of 0, 23 and 34 weeks, respectively. Deep freezing of fishes has been performed on board immediately after hauling or after 6 day’s storage in ice. Before texture measurement the raw material has been thawed and the measurement was carriedout on both thawed and microwave-heated fillets. In general, it can be concluded that both fish species are comparable in their texture parameters. The hardness of heated dab has been slightly higher comparing with that one of plaice. All other texture parameters showed a fairly good conformity between both species. While the hardness of dab increased during heating, it was decreasing in plaice. This was the only one significant difference between both fishes during heating. Adhesiveness as well as cohesiveness increased remarkably during heating. Changes effected by ice storage were only slight. Frozen storage, in contrast, caused a significant decrease of adhesiveness measured after heating the fillets of both species.

Post-larval feeding of Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1802) on cultured zooplankton and artemia diets

The findings are presented of a study undertaken to provide baseline information that may be employed to develop a simplified hatchery technique for postlarval feeding of Clarias gariepinus on zooplankton cultured indoors in small aquaria. Three series of experiments were undertaken to identify the type and quantity of organic manure that would produce maximum densities of zooplankton in the shortest time in indoor cultures. Results suggest the possibility of the culture of natural zooplankton populations for use in larval feeding of C. gariepinus fry. Its effective hatchery application would bring about reduction in the unit cost per fingerling and ensure continuous hatchery operations even in the absence of Artemia cysts