Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.

Empirical analysis on relationship between traffic conditions and crash occurrences

This paper investigates relationship between traffic conditions and the crash occurrence likelihood (COL) using the I-880 data. To remedy the data limitations and the methodological shortcomings suffered by previous studies, a multiresolution data processing method is proposed and implemented, upon which binary logistic models were developed. The major findings of this paper are: 1) traffic conditions have significant impacts on COL at the study site; Specifically, COL in a congested (transitioning) traffic flow is about 6 (1.6) times of that in a free flow condition; 2)Speed variance alone is not sufficient to capture traffic dynamics’ impact on COL; a traffic chaos indicator that integrates speed, speed variance, and flow is proposed and shows a promising performance; 3) Models based on aggregated data shall be interpreted with caution. Generally, conclusions obtained from such models shall not be generalized to individual vehicles (drivers) without further evidences using high-resolution data and it is dubious to either claim or disclaim speed kills based on aggregated data.

Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

SeqSLAM : visual route-based navigation for sunny summer days and stormy winter nights

Learning and then recognizing a route, whether travelled during the day or at night, in clear or inclement weather, and in summer or winter is a challenging task for state of the art algorithms in computer vision and robotics. In this paper, we present a new approach to visual navigation under changing conditions dubbed SeqSLAM. Instead of calculating the single location most likely given a current image, our approach calculates the best candidate matching location within every local navigation sequence. Localization is then achieved by recognizing coherent sequences of these “local best matches”. This approach removes the need for global matching performance by the vision front-end - instead it must only pick the best match within any short sequence of images. The approach is applicable over environment changes that render traditional feature-based techniques ineffective. Using two car-mounted camera datasets we demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm and compare it to one of the most successful feature-based SLAM algorithms, FAB-MAP. The perceptual change in the datasets is extreme; repeated traverses through environments during the day and then in the middle of the night, at times separated by months or years and in opposite seasons, and in clear weather and extremely heavy rain. While the feature-based method fails, the sequence-based algorithm is able to match trajectory segments at 100% precision with recall rates of up to 60%.

System identification, estimation and control for a cost effective open-source quadcopter

This paper describes system identification, estimation and control of translational motion and heading angle for a cost effective open-source quadcopter — the MikroKopter. The dynamics of its built-in sensors, roll and pitch attitude controller, and system latencies are determined and used to design a computationally inexpensive multi-rate velocity estimator that fuses data from the built-in inertial sensors and a low-rate onboard laser range finder. Control is performed using a nested loop structure that is also computationally inexpensive and incorporates different sensors. Experimental results for the estimator and closed-loop positioning are presented and compared with ground truth from a motion capture system.

Concentration and oxidative potential of on-road particle emissions and their relationship with traffic composition : Relevance to exposure assessment

Particles emitted by vehicles are known to cause detrimental health effects, with their size and oxidative potential among the main factors responsible. Therefore, understanding the relationship between traffic composition and both the physical characteristics and oxidative potential of particles is critical. To contribute to the limited knowledge base in this area, we investigated this relationship in a 4.5 km road tunnel in Brisbane, Australia. On-road concentrations of ultrafine particles (<100 nm, UFPs), fine particles (PM2.5), CO, CO2 and particle associated reactive oxygen species (ROS) were measured using vehicle-based mobile sampling. UFPs were measured using a condensation particle counter and PM2.5 with a DustTrak aerosol photometer. A new profluorescent nitroxide probe, BPEAnit, was used to determine ROS levels. Comparative measurements were also performed on an above-ground road to assess the role of emission dilution on the parameters measured. The profile of UFP and PM2.5 concentration with distance through the tunnel was determined, and demonstrated relationships with both road gradient and tunnel ventilation. ROS levels in the tunnel were found to be high compared to an open road with similar traffic characteristics, which was attributed to the substantial difference in estimated emission dilution ratios on the two roadways. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the levels of pollutants and ROS were generally better correlated with total traffic count, rather than the traffic composition (i.e. diesel and gasoline-powered vehicles). A possible reason for the lack of correlation with HDV, which has previously been shown to be strongly associated with UFPs especially, was the low absolute numbers encountered during the sampling. This may have made their contribution to in-tunnel pollution largely indistinguishable from the total vehicle volume. For ROS, the stronger association observed with HDV and gasoline vehicles when combined (total traffic count) compared to when considered individually may signal a role for the interaction of their emissions as a determinant of on-road ROS in this pilot study. If further validated, this should not be overlooked in studies of on- or near-road particle exposure and its potential health effects.

Granule mining and its application for network traffic characterization

Decision table and decision rules play an important role in rough set based data analysis, which compress databases into granules and describe the associations between granules. Granule mining was also proposed to interpret decision rules in terms of association rules and multi-tier structure. In this paper, we further extend granule mining to describe the relationships between granules not only by traditional support and confidence, but by diversity and condition diversity as well. Diversity measures how diverse of a granule associated with the other ganules, it provides a kind of novel knowledge in databases. Some experiments are conducted to test the proposed new concepts for describing the characteristics of a real network traffic data collection. The results show that the proposed concepts are promising.

Smart grid-demand side response model for optimization air conditioning

The growing demand of air-conditioning is one of the largest contributors to Australia’s overall electricity consumption. This has started to create peak load supply problems for some electricity utilities particularly in Queensland. This research aimed to develop consumer demand side response model to assist electricity consumers to mitigate peak demand on the electrical network. The model developed demand side response model to allow consumers to manage and control air conditioning for every period, it is called intelligent control. This research investigates optimal response of end-user toward electricity price for several cases in the near future, such as: no spike, spike and probability spike price cases. The results indicate the potential of the scheme to achieve energy savings, reducing electricity bills (costs) to the consumer and targeting best economic performance for electrical generation distribution and transmission.

Microscopic traffic hysteresis in traffic oscillations : a behavioral perspective

This paper studies traffic hysteresis arising in traffic oscillations from a behavioral perspective. It is found that the occurrence and type of traffic hysteresis is closely correlated with driver behavior when experiencing traffic oscillations and with the time driver reaction begins relative to the starting deceleration wave. Statistical results suggest that driver behavior is different depending on its position along the oscillation. This suggests that different car-following models should be used inside the different stages of an oscillation in order to replicate realistic congestion features.

Source apportionment of ultrafine and fine particle concentrations in Brisbane, Australia

Purpose: To investigate the significance of sources around measurement sites, assist the development of control strategies for the important sources and mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution due to particle size. Methods: In this study, sampling was conducted at two sites located in urban/industrial and residential areas situated at roadsides along the Brisbane Urban Corridor. Ultrafine and fine particle measurements obtained at the two sites in June-July 2002 were analysed by Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). Results: Six sources were present, including local traffic, two traffic sources, biomass burning, and two currently unidentified sources. Secondary particles had a significant impact at Site 1, while nitrates, peak traffic hours and main roads located close to the source also affected the results for both sites. Conclusions: This significant traffic corridor exemplifies the type of sources present in heavily trafficked locations and future attempts to control pollution in this type of environment could focus on the sources that were identified.

Preliminary results on the chemical composition of outdoor airborne particles at urban schools and possible implications for the air quality in classrooms

Vehicle emissions are a significant source of fine particles (Dp < 2.5 µm) in an urban environment. These fine particles have been shown to have detrimental health effects, with children thought to be more susceptible. Vehicle emissions are mainly carbonaceous in nature, and carbonaceous aerosols can be defined as either elemental carbon (EC) or organic carbon (OC). EC is a soot-like material emitted from primary sources while OC fraction is a complex mixture of hundreds of organic compounds from either primary or secondary sources (Cao et al., 2006). Therefore the ratio of OC/EC can aid in the identification of source. The purpose of this paper is to use the concentration of OC and EC in fine particles to determine the levels of vehicle emissions in schools. It is expected that this will improve the understanding of the potential exposure of children in a school environment to vehicle emissions.

Atmospheric deposition as a source of heavy metals in urban stormwater

Atmospheric deposition is one of the most important pathways of urban stormwater pollution. Atmospheric deposition which can be in the form of either wet or dry deposition have distinct characteristics in terms of associated particulate sizes, pollutant types and influential parameters. This paper discusses the outcomes of a comprehensive research study undertaken to identify important traffic characteristics and climate factors such as antecedent dry period and rainfall characteristics which influences the characteristics of wet and dry deposition of solids and heavy metals. The outcomes confirmed that Zinc (Zn) is correlated with traffic volume whereas Lead (Pb), Cadmium (Cd), Nickel (Ni), and Copper (Cu) are correlated with traffic congestion. Consequently, reducing traffic congestion will be more effective than reducing traffic volume for improving air quality particularly in relation to Pb, Cd, Ni, and Cu. Zn was found to have the highest atmospheric deposition rate compared to other heavy metals. Zn in dry deposition is associated with relatively larger particle size fractions (>10 µm), whereas Pb, Cd, Ni and Cu are associated with relatively smaller particle size fractions (<10 µm). The analysis further revealed that bulk (wet plus dry) deposition which is correlated with rainfall depth and contains a relatively higher percentage of smaller particles compared to dry deposition which is correlated with the antecedent dry period. As particles subjected to wet deposition are smaller, they disperse over a larger area from the source of origin compared to particles subjected to dry deposition as buoyancy forces become dominant for smaller particles compared to the influence of gravity. Furthermore, exhaust emission particles were found to be primarily associated with bulk deposition compared to dry deposition particles which mainly originate from vehicle component wear.

Estimating vulnerable windows of exposure to air pollution during pregnancy

Exposure to air pollution during pregnancy is a potential cause of adverse birth outcomes such as preterm birth and stillbirth. The risk of exposure may be greater during vulnerable windows of the pregnancy which might only be weeks long. We demonstrate a method to find these windows based on smoothing the risk of weekly exposure using conditional autoregression. We use incidence density sampling to match cases with adverse birth outcomes to controls whose gestation lasted at least as long as the case. This matching means that cases and controls are have equal length exposure periods, rather than comparing, for example, cases with short gestations to controls with longer gestations. We demonstrate the ability of the method to find vulnerable windows using two simulation studies. We illustrate the method by examining the association between particulate matter air pollution and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia.

Microscopic cooperative traffic based on NGSIM data

The deployment of new emerging technologies, such as cooperative systems, allows the traffic community to foresee relevant improvements in terms of traffic safety and efficiency. Vehicles are able to communicate on the local traffic state in real time, which could result in an automatic and therefore better reaction to the mechanism of traffic jam formation. An upstream single hop radio broadcast network can improve the perception of each cooperative driver within radio range and hence the traffic stability. The impact of a cooperative law on traffic congestion appearance is investigated, analytically and through simulation. Ngsim field data is used to calibrate the Optimal Velocity with Relative Velocity (OVRV) car following model and the MOBIL lane-changing model is implemented. Assuming that congestion can be triggered either by a perturbation in the instability domain or by a critical lane changing behavior, the calibrated car following behavior is used to assess the impact of a microscopic cooperative law on abnormal lane changing behavior. The cooperative law helps reduce and delay traffic congestion as it increases traffic flow stability.

Rule-based transit signal priority control method using a real-time transit travel time prediction model

An advanced rule-based Transit Signal Priority (TSP) control method is presented in this paper. An on-line transit travel time prediction model is the key component of the proposed method, which enables the selection of the most appropriate TSP plans for the prevailing traffic and transit condition. The new method also adopts a priority plan re-development feature that enables modifying or even switching the already implemented priority plan to accommodate changes in the traffic conditions. The proposed method utilizes conventional green extension and red truncation strategies and also two new strategies including green truncation and queue clearance. The new method is evaluated against a typical active TSP strategy and also the base case scenario assuming no TSP control in microsimulation. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed method can produce significant benefits in reducing the bus delay time and improving the service regularity with negligible adverse impacts on the non-transit street traffic.