Cancer 2015: a longitudinal whole-of-system study of genomic cancer medicine

Genomic cancer medicine promises revolutionary change in oncology. The impacts of 'personalized medicine', based upon a molecular classification of cancer and linked to targeted therapies, will extend from individual patient outcomes to the health economy at large. To address the 'whole-of-system' impact of genomic cancer medicine, we have established a prospective cohort of patients with newly diagnosed cancer in the state of Victoria, Australia, about whom we have collected a broad range of clinical, demographic, molecular, and patient-reported data, as well as data on health resource utilization. Our goal is to create a model for investigating public investment in genomic medicine that maximizes the cost:benefit ratio for the Australian community at large.

Does disability status modify the association between psychosocial job quality and mental health? A longitudinal fixed-effects analysis

BACKGROUND: People with disabilities have difficulties in obtaining work. However, evidence suggests that those with disabilities derive substantial mental health benefits from employment. This paper assesses how the relationship between work and mental health is influenced by psychosocial job quality for people working with a disability. METHODS: The study design was a longitudinal cohort with 13 annual waves of data collection, yielding a sample of 122,883 observations from 21,848 people. Fixed-effects within-person regression was used to control for time invariant confounding. The Mental Component Summary (MCS) of the Short Form 36 (SF-36) measure was used as the primary outcome measure. The main exposure was a six-category measure of psychosocial job quality and employment status (including 'not in the labour force' [NILF] and unemployment). Disability status ('no waves of disability reported' and 'all contributed waves with reported disability') was assessed as an effect modifier. We also conducted a secondary analysis on respondents contributing both disability and non-disability waves. RESULTS: For those with no disability, the greatest difference in mental health (compared to optimal employment) occurs when people have the poorest quality jobs (-2.12, 95% CI -2.48, -1.75, p < 0.001). The relative difference in mental health was less in relation to NILF and unemployment (-0.39 and -0.66 respectively). For those with consistent disability, the difference in mental health when employed in an optimal job was similar between the poorest quality jobs (-2.25, 95% CI -3.84, -0.65, p = 0.006), NILF (-2.84, 95% CI -4.49, -1.20, p = 0.001) or unemployment (-2.56, 95% CI -4.32, -0.80, p = 0.004). These results were confirmed by the secondary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to improve psychosocial job quality may have significant mental health benefits for people with disabilities. This will contribute to the economic viability of disability employment insurance schemes in Australia and other high-income countries.

Symptoms of depression and difficulty initiating sleep from early adolescence to early adulthood: a longitudinal study

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To assess the direction of the relationship and degree of shared associations between symptoms of depression and difficulty initiating sleep (DIS) from early adolescence to early adulthood. DESIGN: Cross-sectional and longitudinal assessment of the symptoms of depression-DIS association from early adolescence (age 13 y) to early adulthood (age 23 y). SETTING: Hordaland, Norway. PARTICIPANTS: There were 1,105 individuals (55% male) who took part in the Norwegian Longitudinal Health Behaviour Study (NLHB) and participated at least once across seven data collection waves during the years 1990-2000. INTERVENTIONS: N/A. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Characteristic data were obtained during the first assessment. Symptoms of depression and instances of DIS were assessed during each data collection wave. Symptoms of depression and DIS were associated in all data waves, and one-step cross-lagged bivariate correlations were significant and comparatively high for both factors. Structural equation modelling indicated that DIS and symptoms of depression at wave 1 remain relatively stable across waves (all P < 0.001), and a significant and consistent unidirectional cross-lagged effect was noted running from symptoms of depression to DIS from early adolescence to early adulthood. DIS is only marginally and inconsistently associated with the lagged symptoms of depression score across waves. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that symptoms of depression established in early adolescence are a moderate predictor of difficulty initiating sleep (DIS) in early adulthood, whereas the reverse association of DIS predicting depression was not convincingly supported. These findings are in contrast to previous findings that suggest sleep problems as a risk factor for the later development of depression.

The longitudinal effects of adolescent volunteering on secondary school completion and adult volunteering

 This study explores the longitudinal effect of adolescent volunteering behaviour on young adult volunteering and the completion of secondary school. Utilising data from the Australian sample of the International Youth Development Study, frequency of volunteering in Grade 9 (mean age = 15 years) and in young adulthood (mean age = 21 years), and completion of secondary school were measured. Mixed effect logistic regression analyses revealed that adolescent volunteering was associated with an increased likelihood of volunteering in young adulthood (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.29; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.20–1.39; N = 2,648) and of Grade 12 completion (OR 1.14; CI 1.03–1.28; N = 2,648), after controlling for family socioeconomic status and adolescent school adjustment. These findings suggest that adolescent volunteering may lead to further involvement in young adult volunteering and have a positive effect on school completion.

The Maltreatment-Offending Association: a systematic review of the methodological features of prospective and longitudinal studies

Although the association between childhood maltreatment and the subsequent development of offending behavior is well documented, the association does not necessarily reflect a causal relationship. This paper provides a systematic review of prospective and longitudinal studies using official records of maltreatment to gain insights into the extent to which methodological variations are likely to influence the conclusions drawn about the likely relationship between maltreatment and offending. Sixty-two original studies met the inclusion criteria. These studies were assessed according to a set of seven methodological criteria: (1) inclusion of comparison groups, (2) the use of statistical controls, (3) valid outcome measures, (4) operationalization of maltreatment, (5) proper temporal order of associations, (6) data relating to unsubstantiated maltreatment, and (7) consideration of mediating and moderating factors. The strength of evidence in support of the maltreatment-offending association was influenced by a number of methodological factors. Despite the increasing sophistication of studies, there is a need to be mindful of how these factors are taken into account in future research in order to gain a deeper understanding of the adverse consequences of maltreatment and how this might influence outcomes and inform interventions.

The density of alcohol outlets and adolescent alcohol consumption: an Australian longitudinal analysis

 Higher density of alcohol outlets has been linked to increased levels of adolescent alcohol-related behaviour. Research to date has been cross-sectional. A longitudinal design using two waves of annual survey data from the Australian arm of the International Youth Development Study was used. The sample comprised 2835 individuals with average age at wave 2 of 14 years (SD=1.67; range=11–17 years). GSEM was used to examine how absolute levels of alcohol outlet density was associated with student-reported alcohol use one year later, while controlling for prior alcohol use, risk factors at wave one and changes in density over the 2 years. Adolescents' perception of alcohol availability and friends' alcohol use were tested as potential mediators of the association between alcohol outlet density and adolescent alcohol use. Elasticity modelling identified a 10% increase in overall density at wave one was associated with an approximately 17% increase in odds of adolescent alcohol consumption at wave two. Living in areas with a higher density of outlets was associated with a statistically significant increase in the likelihood of adolescents developing early age alcohol consumption.

Pro-inflammatory dietary intake as a risk factor for CVD in men: a 5-year longitudinal study

Convincing evidence has identified inflammation as an initiator of atherosclerosis, underpinning CVD. We investigated (i) whether dietary inflammation, as measured by the 'dietary inflammatory index (DII)', was predictive of 5-year CVD in men and (ii) its predictive ability compared with that of SFA intake alone. The sample consisted of 1363 men enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study who completed an FFQ at baseline (2001-2006) (excluding participants who were identified as having previous CVD). DII scores were computed from participants' reported intakes of carbohydrate, micronutrients and glycaemic load. DII scores were dichotomised into a pro-inflammatory diet (positive values) or an anti-inflammatory diet (negative values). The primary outcome was a formal diagnosis of CVD resulting in hospitalisation over the 5-year study period. In total, seventy-six events were observed during the 5-year follow-up period. Men with a pro-inflammatory diet at baseline were twice as likely to experience a CVD event over the study period (OR 2·07; 95 % CI 1·20, 3·55). This association held following adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors and total energy intake (adjusted OR 2·00; 95 % CI 1·03, 3·96). This effect appeared to be stronger with the inclusion of an age-by-DII score interaction. In contrast, SFA intake alone did not predict 5-year CVD events after adjustment for covariates (adjusted OR 1·40; 95 % CI 0·73, 2·70). We conclude that an association exists between a pro-inflammatory diet and CVD in Australian men. CVD clinical guidelines and public health recommendations may have to expand to include dietary patterns in the context of vascular inflammation.

Developmental trajectories of adolescent cannabis use and their relationship to young adult social and behavioural adjustment: a longitudinal study of Australian youth

This study aimed to identify distinct developmental trajectories (sub-groups of individuals who showed similar longitudinal patterns) of cannabis use among Australian adolescents, and to examine associations between trajectory group membership and measures of social and behavioural adjustment in young adulthood. Participants (n=852, 53% female) were part of the International Youth Development Study. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify distinct trajectories of cannabis use frequency from average ages 12 to 19, across 6 waves of data. Logistic regression analyses and analyses of covariance were used to examine relationships between trajectory group membership and young adult (average age: 21) adjustment, controlling for a range of covariates. Three trajectories were identified: abstainers (62%), early onset users (11%), and late onset occasional users (27%). The early onset users showed a higher frequency of antisocial behaviour, violence, cannabis use, cannabis-related harms, cigarette use, and alcohol harms, compared to the abstinent group in young adulthood. The late onset occasional users reported a higher frequency of cannabis use, cannabis-related harms, illicit drug use, and alcohol harms, compared to the abstinent group in young adulthood. There were no differences between the trajectory groups on measures of employment, school completion, post-secondary education, income, depression/anxiety, or alcohol use problems. In conclusion, early onset of cannabis use, even at relatively low frequency during adolescence, is associated with poorer adjustment in young adulthood. Prevention and intervention efforts to delay or prevent uptake of cannabis use should be particularly focussed on early adolescence prior to age 12.

Transforming the SF-36 to account for death in longitudinal studies with three-year follow-up

BACKGROUND: Analyses of longitudinal health-related quality of life data often exclude participants who die, which limits the generalizability of the results. Methods to incorporate death as a valid score in the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form (SF-36) have been suggested but need to be evaluated in other populations. OBJECTIVES: We sought to apply a method of transforming the SF-36 Physical Component Score (PCS) to include death. A transformation to estimate the probability of being "healthy" in 3 years, based on the current PCS value, will be developed and validated. SUBJECTS: Women in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH), ages 70-75 years at Survey 1 in 1996 (n = 12,432), were followed-up at 3 yearly intervals for 6 years. RESULTS: The transformation derived from the ALSWH data provides evidence that the methodology for transforming the PCS to account for deaths is sound. The 3-year equation provided good estimates of the probability of being healthy in 3 years and the method allowed deaths to be included in an analysis of changes in health over time. CONCLUSIONS: For longitudinal studies involving the SF-36 in which subjects have died, we support the recommendation that both the PCS and its transformed value which includes deaths should be analyzed to examine the influence of deaths on the study conclusions. Using study data to derive empirical parameters for the transformations may be appropriate for studies with follow-up intervals of other lengths.

Effect of nativity and duration of residence on chronic health conditions among Asian immigrants in Australia: a longitudinal investigation

This study examined the effect of Asian nativity and duration of residence in Australia on the odds of reporting a chronic health condition (cancer, respiratory problems, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus). Data were from waves 3, 7 and 9 of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) longitudinal survey, and multi-level group-mean-centred logistic regression models were used for the analysis. After covariate adjustment, Asian immigrants were less likely to report cancer and respiratory problem compared with native-born Australians. While there was no significant difference in reporting CVD, they were more likely to report diabetes than native-born people. Asian immigrants maintained their health advantage with respect to cancer regardless of duration of residence. However, after 20 years of stay, Asian immigrants lost their earlier advantage and were not significantly different from native-born people in terms of reporting a respiratory problem. In contrast, Asian immigrants were not measurably different from native-born Australians in reporting diabetes if their length of stay in Australia was less than 20 years, but became disadvantaged after staying for 20 years or longer. There was no measurable difference in the odds of reporting CVD between Asian immigrants and native-born Australians for any duration of residence. On the whole this study found that health advantage, existence of healthy immigrant effect and subsequent erosion of it with increasing duration of residence among Asian immigrants depends upon the chronic health condition.

Depression is a risk factor for incident coronary heart disease in women: an 18-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: According to a recent position paper by the American Heart Association, it remains unclear whether depression is a risk factor for incident Coronary Heart Disease (CHD). We assessed whether a depressive disorder independently predicts 18-year incident CHD in women. METHOD: A prospective longitudinal study of 860 women enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study (1993-2011) was conducted. Participants were derived from an age-stratified, representative sample of women (20-94 years) randomly selected from electoral rolls in South-Eastern Australia. The exposure was a diagnosis of a depressive disorder using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Outcomes data were collected from hospital medical records: (1) Primary outcome: a composite measure of cardiac death, non-fatal Myocardial Infarction or coronary intervention. (2) Secondary outcome: any cardiac event (un/stable angina, cardiac event not otherwise defined) occurring over the study period. RESULTS: Seven participants were excluded based on CHD history. Eighty-three participants (9.6%) recorded ≥1 cardiac event over the study period; 47 had a diagnosis that met criteria for inclusion in the primary analysis. Baseline depression predicted 18-year incidence, adjusting for (1) anxiety (adj. OR:2.39; 95% CIs:1.19-4.82), plus (2) typical risk factors (adj. OR:3.22; 95% CIs:1.45-6.93), plus (3) atypical risk factors (adj. OR:3.28; 95% CIs:1.36-7.90). This relationship held when including all cardiac events. No relationship was observed between depression and recurrent cardiac events. CONCLUSION: The results of this study support the contention that depression is an independent risk factor for CHD incidence in women. Moreover, the strength of association between depression and CHD incidence was of a greater magnitude than any typical and atypical risk factor.

A longitudinal study of older couples coping with chronic conditions

 This study involved a longitudinal investigation of how older couples cope with chronic illness. The study found that one person’s chronic illness affects the wellbeing of both members of the couple. Ensuring that both members of the couple are supported when a chronic illness is experienced is important to optimise the psychological health of this vulnerable cohort of Australians.

Depression as a risk factor for fracture in women: a 10 year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: Previous research has demonstrated deficits in bone mineral density (BMD) among individuals with depression. While reduced BMD is a known risk for fracture, a direct link between depression and fracture risk is yet to be confirmed. METHODS: A population-based sample of women participating in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study was studied using both nested case-control and retrospective cohort study designs. A lifetime history of depression was identified using a semi-structured clinical interview (SCID-I/NP). Incident fractures were identified from radiological reports and BMD was measured at the femoral neck using dual energy absorptiometry. Anthropometry was measured and information on medication use and lifestyle factors was obtained via questionnaire. RESULTS: Among 179 cases with incident fracture and 914 controls, depression was associated with increased odds of fracture (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.57, 95%CI 1.04-2.38); further adjustment for psychotropic medication use appeared to attenuate this association (adjusted OR 1.52, 95%CI 0.98-2.36). Among 165 women with a history of depression at baseline and 693 who had no history of depression, depression was associated with a 68% increased risk of incident fracture (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.68, 95%CI 1.02-2.76), with further adjustment for psychotropic medication use also appearing to attenuate this association (adjusted HR 1.58, 95%CI 0.95-2.61). LIMITATIONS: Potential limitations include recall bias, unrecognised confounding and generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides both cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence to suggest that clinical depression is a risk factor for radiologically-confirmed incident fracture, independent of a number of known risk factors. If there is indeed a clinically meaningful co-morbidity between mental and bone health, potentially worsened by psychotropic medications, the issue of screening at-risk populations needs to become a priority.

Effects of antidepressants on postmenopausal bone loss - a 5-year longitudinal study from the OSTPRE cohort

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis and depression are major health problems worldwide. The association between antidepressants, a treatment for depression, and bone health needs more detailed exploration. OBJECTIVE: The present study investigates antidepressant medication use and postmenopausal bone loss over time. METHODS: A total of 1988 women (aged 57-67) participating in the Kuopio Osteoporosis Risk Factor and Prevention Study (OSTPRE) cohort responded to a postal enquiry and had their femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) measured in 1999 and again in 2004. Data on antidepressant use was obtained from the National Prescription Register. Multiple regression techniques were used to test the associations, before and after adjustment for anthropometric, medical, physical and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: Over the five years of follow-up, 319 (16.0%) women purchased antidepressants. Mean baseline femoral neck BMD for the entire study group was 881mg/cm(2) (SD 123) and mean 5-year bone loss was 6.0mg/cm(2) (SD 4.7). After adjustments, users of tricyclic antidepressants (TCA) had greater annual BMD loss than non-users (-3.6mg/cm(2) vs. -1.1mg/cm(2); P=0.031). Accelerated bone loss was also associated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor's (SSRI) use (P=0.001) and use of other antidepressants in a dose-response way, with the latter only among women of low-weight and normal-weight women who had lost weight over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the use of SSRIs seems to accelerate postmenopausal bone loss in a dose-response manner. Associations between TCA and other antidepressant use and bone loss may also exist. Thus, the possibility of increased risk of osteoporosis should be considered when prescribing antidepressants for postmenopausal women.