Public-health and individual approaches to antiretroviral therapy: township South Africa and Switzerland compared

BACKGROUND: The provision of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in resource-limited settings follows a public health approach, which is characterised by a limited number of regimens and the standardisation of clinical and laboratory monitoring. In industrialized countries doctors prescribe from the full range of available antiretroviral drugs, supported by resistance testing and frequent laboratory monitoring. We compared virologic response, changes to first-line regimens, and mortality in HIV-infected patients starting HAART in South Africa and Switzerland. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and two HAART programmes in townships of Cape Town, South Africa. We included treatment-naïve patients aged 16 y or older who had started treatment with at least three drugs since 2001, and excluded intravenous drug users. Data from a total of 2,348 patients from South Africa and 1,016 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study were analysed. Median baseline CD4+ T cell counts were 80 cells/mul in South Africa and 204 cells/mul in Switzerland. In South Africa, patients started with one of four first-line regimens, which was subsequently changed in 514 patients (22%). In Switzerland, 36 first-line regimens were used initially, and these were changed in 539 patients (53%). In most patients HIV-1 RNA was suppressed to 500 copies/ml or less within one year: 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] 95%-97%) in South Africa and 96% (94%-97%) in Switzerland, and 26% (22%-29%) and 27% (24%-31%), respectively, developed viral rebound within two years. Mortality was higher in South Africa than in Switzerland during the first months of HAART: adjusted hazard ratios were 5.90 (95% CI 1.81-19.2) during months 1-3 and 1.77 (0.90-3.50) during months 4-24. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the highly individualised approach in Switzerland, programmatic HAART in South Africa resulted in similar virologic outcomes, with relatively few changes to initial regimens. Further innovation and resources are required in South Africa to both achieve more timely access to HAART and improve the prognosis of patients who start HAART with advanced disease.

Does short-term virologic failure translate to clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in clinical practice?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether differences in short-term virologic failure among commonly used antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens translate to differences in clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating ART. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of patients initiating ART between January 2000 and December 2005. SETTING: The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) is a collaboration of 15 HIV cohort studies from Canada, Europe, and the United States. STUDY PARTICIPANTS: A total of 13 546 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive patients initiating ART with efavirenz, nevirapine, lopinavir/ritonavir, nelfinavir, or abacavir as third drugs in combination with a zidovudine and lamivudine nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Short-term (24-week) virologic failure (>500 copies/ml) and clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation (incident AIDS-defining event, death, and a composite measure of these two outcomes). RESULTS: Compared with efavirenz as initial third drug, short-term virologic failure was more common with all other third drugs evaluated; nevirapine (adjusted odds ratio = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.58-2.22), lopinavir/ritonavir (1.32, 95% CI = 1.12-1.57), nelfinavir (3.20, 95% CI = 2.74-3.74), and abacavir (2.13, 95% CI = 1.82-2.50). However, the rate of clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation appeared higher only with nevirapine (adjusted hazard ratio for composite outcome measure 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04-1.56) and abacavir (1.22, 95% CI = 1.00-1.48). CONCLUSION: Among antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating therapy, between-ART regimen, differences in short-term virologic failure do not necessarily translate to differences in clinical outcomes. Our results should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of residual confounding by indication.

CD4+ T cell count recovery in HIV type 1-infected patients is independent of class of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: In recent years, treatment options for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have changed from nonboosted protease inhibitors (PIs) to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and boosted PI-based antiretroviral drug regimens, but the impact on immunological recovery remains uncertain. METHODS: During January 1996 through December 2004 [corrected] all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort were included if they received the first combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and had known baseline CD4(+) T cell counts and HIV-1 RNA values (n = 3293). For follow-up, we used the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database update of May 2007 [corrected] The mean (+/-SD) duration of follow-up was 26.8 +/- 20.5 months. The follow-up time was limited to the duration of the first cART. CD4(+) T cell recovery was analyzed in 3 different treatment groups: nonboosted PI, NNRTI, or boosted PI. The end point was the absolute increase of CD4(+) T cell count in the 3 treatment groups after the initiation of cART. RESULTS: Two thousand five hundred ninety individuals (78.7%) initiated a nonboosted-PI regimen, 452 (13.7%) initiated an NNRTI regimen, and 251 (7.6%) initiated a boosted-PI regimen. Absolute CD4(+) T cell count increases at 48 months were as follows: in the nonboosted-PI group, from 210 to 520 cells/muL; in the NNRTI group, from 220 to 475 cells/muL; and in the boosted-PI group, from 168 to 511 cells/muL. In a multivariate analysis, the treatment group did not affect the response of CD4(+) T cells; however, increased age, pretreatment with nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, serological tests positive for hepatitis C virus, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stage C infection, lower baseline CD4(+) T cell count, and lower baseline HIV-1 RNA level were risk factors for smaller increases in CD4(+) T cell count. CONCLUSION: CD4(+) T cell recovery was similar in patients receiving nonboosted PI-, NNRTI-, and boosted PI-based cART.

Delayed diagnosis of HIV infection and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: To investigate delayed HIV diagnosis and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Two sub-populations were included: 1915 patients with HIV diagnosis from 1998 to 2007 and within 3 months of cohort registration (group A), and 1730 treatment-naïve patients with CD4>or=200 cells/microL before their second cohort visit (group B). In group A, predictors for low initial CD4 cell counts were examined with a median regression. In group B, we studied predictors for CD4<200 cells/microL without ART despite cohort follow-up. RESULTS: Median initial CD4 cell count in group A was 331 cells/microL; 31% and 10% were <200 and <50 cells/microL, respectively. Risk factors for low CD4 count were age and non-White race. Homosexual transmission, intravenous drug use and living alone were protective. In group B, 30% initiated ART with CD4>or=200 cells/microL; 18% and 2% dropped to CD4 <200 and <50 cells/microL without ART, respectively. Sub-Saharan origin was associated with lower probability of CD4 <200 cells/microL without ART during follow-up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 207 and 253 cells/microL in groups A and B, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CD4<200 cells/microL and, particularly, CD4<50 cells/microL before starting ART are predominantly caused by late presentation. Earlier HIV diagnosis is paramount.

DESIGN AND SYNTHESIS OF MULTIFUNCTIONAL POLYMERIC MICELLES FOR GENE-DIRECTED ENZYME PRODRUG THERAPY

Gene-directed enzyme prodrug therapy is a form of cancer therapy in which delivery of a gene that encodes an enzyme is able to convert a prodrug, a pharmacologically inactive molecule, into a potent cytotoxin. Currently delivery of gene and prodrug is a two-step process. Here, we propose a one-step method using polymer nanocarriers to deliver prodrug, gene and cytotoxic drug simultaneously to malignant cells. Prodrugs acyclovir, ganciclovir and 5-doxifluridine were used to directly to initiate ring-opening polymerization of epsilon-caprolactone, forming a hydrophobic prodrug-tagged poly(epsilon-caprolactone) which was further grafted with hydrophilic polymers (methoxy poly(ethylene glycol), chitosan or polyethylenemine) to form amphiphilic copolymers for micelle formation. Successful synthesis of copolymers and micelle formation was confirmed by standard analytical means. Conversion of prodrugs to their cytotoxic forms was analyzed by both two-step and one-step means i.e. by first delivering gene plasmid into cell line HT29 and then challenging the cells with the prodrug-tagged micelle carriers and secondly by complexing gene plasmid onto micelle nanocarriers and delivery gene and prodrug simultaneously to parental HT29 cells. Anticancer effectiveness of prodrug-tagged micelles was further enhanced by encapsulating chemotherapy drugs doxorubicin or SN-38. Viability of colon cancer cell line HT29 was significantly reduced. Furthermore, in an effort to develop a stealth and targeted carrier, CD47-streptavidin fusion protein was attached onto the micelle surface utilizing biotin-streptavidin affinity. CD47, a marker of self on the red blood cell surface, was used for its antiphagocytic efficacy, results showed that micelles bound with CD47 showed antiphagocytic efficacy when exposed to J774A.1 macrophages. Since CD47 is not only an antiphagocytic ligand but also an integrin associated protein, it was used to target integrin alpha(v)beta(3), which is overexpressed on tumor-activated neovascular endothelial cells. Results showed that CD47-tagged micelles had enhanced uptake when treated to PC3 cells which have high expression of alpha(v)beta(3). The synthesized multifunctional polymeric micelle carriers developed could offer a new platform for an innovative cancer therapy regime.

Treatment of recurrent rejection in heart transplantation: cytolytic therapy or bolus steroids?

OBJECTIVES: The treatment of recurrent rejection in heart transplant recipients has been a controversial issue for many years. The intent of this retrospective study was to perform a risk-benefit analysis between treatment strategies with bolus steroids only versus anti-thymocyte globulins (RATG; 1.5 mg/kg q 4 days). METHODS: Between 1986 and 1993, 69 of 425 patients (17 male, 52 female; mean age 44 +/- 11 years) who had more than one rejection/patient per month (rej/pt per mo) in the first 3 postoperative months were defined as recurrent rejectors. RESULTS: Repetitive methylprednisolone bolus therapy (70 mg/kg q 3 days) was given in 27 patients (group M; 1.4 +/- 0.2 rej/pt per mo) and RATG therapy for one of the rejection episodes of the 42 remaining patients (group A; 1.5 +/- 0.2 rej/pt per mo). The quality of triple drug immunosuppression in the two study groups was comparable. The rejection-free interval (RFI) following RATG treatment in group A was 21.6 +/- 10 days and 22 +/- 11 in group M. In group M, 3 of 27 patients (11%) had a rejection treatment-related infection (2 bacterial; 1 viral) versus 6 of the 42 patients of group A (14.2%; bacterial 1, viral 5). During postoperative months 3-24, 0.15 +/- 0.12 rej/pat per mo were observed in group M and 0.21 +/- 0.13 rej/pat per mo in group A (n.s.). In this 21-month period cytolytic therapy for rejection was initiated in 8 of the remaining 21 patients of group M (38%) and 15 of the remaining 37 patients of group A (40.5%). The absolute survival and the individual causes of death were not affected by the type of initial treatment of recurrent rejection. The actuarial freedom of graft atherosclerosis is comparable in the two groups with 78% in group A versus 79% in group M free of graft atherosclerosis at 3 years postoperatively. CONCLUSIONS: A comparison of cytolytic therapy versus repeated applications of bolus steroids for treatment of recurrent rejection reveals no significant difference in the long-term patient outcome with respect to the incidence of future rejection episodes and survival.

Individualization of 5-fluorocytosine therapy

Using a convenient and fast HPLC procedure we determined serum concentrations of the fungistatic agent 5-fluorocytosine (5-FC) in 375 samples from 60 patients treated with this drug. The mean trough concentration (n = 127) was 64.3 mg/l (range: 11.8-208.0 mg/l), the mean peak concentration (n = 122) was 99.9 mg/l (range: 25.6-263.8 mg/l), the mean nonpeak/nontrough concentration (n = 126) was 80.1 mg/l (range: 10.5-268.0 mg/l). Totally 134 (35.7%) samples were outside the therapeutic range (25-100 mg/l), 108 (28.8%) being too high, 26 (6.9%) being too low. Forty-four (73%) patients showed 5-FC serum concentrations outside the therapeutic range at least once during the treatment course. In a prospective study we performed 65 dosage predictions on 30 patients by use of a 3-point method previously developed for aminoglycoside dosage adaptation. The mean absolute prediction error of the dosage adaptation was +0.7 mg/l (range: -26.0 to +28.0 mg/l). The root mean square prediction error was 10.7 mg/l. The mean predicted concentration (65.3 mg/l) agreed very well with the mean measured concentration (64.6 mg/l). The frequency distribution of 5-FC serum concentrations indicates that 5-FC monitoring is important. The applied pharmacokinetic method allows individual adaptations of 5-FC dosage with a clinically acceptable prediction error.

Prognosis of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma in patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: We examined survival and prognostic factors of patients who developed HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN AND SETTING: Multicohort collaboration of 33 European cohorts. METHODS: We included all cART-naive patients enrolled in cohorts participating in the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) who were aged 16 years or older, started cART at some point after 1 January 1998 and developed NHL after 1 January 1998. Patients had to have a CD4 cell count after 1 January 1998 and one at diagnosis of the NHL. Survival and prognostic factors were estimated using Weibull models, with random effects accounting for heterogeneity between cohorts. RESULTS: Of 67 659 patients who were followed up during 304 940 person-years, 1176 patients were diagnosed with NHL. Eight hundred and forty-seven patients (72%) from 22 cohorts met inclusion criteria. Survival at 1 year was 66% [95% confidence interval (CI) 63-70%] for systemic NHL (n = 763) and 54% (95% CI: 43-65%) for primary brain lymphoma (n = 84). Risk factors for death included low nadir CD4 cell counts and a history of injection drug use. Patients developing NHL on cART had an increased risk of death compared with patients who were cART naive at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: In the era of cART two-thirds of patients diagnosed with HIV-related systemic NHL survive for longer than 1 year after diagnosis. Survival is poorer in patients diagnosed with primary brain lymphoma. More advanced immunodeficiency is the dominant prognostic factor for mortality in patients with HIV-related NHL.

Effects of chronic baroreceptor stimulation on the autonomic cardiovascular regulation in patients with drug-resistant arterial hypertension

In patients with drug-resistant hypertension, chronic electric stimulation of the carotid baroreflex is an investigational therapy for blood pressure reduction. We hypothesized that changes in cardiac autonomic regulation can be demonstrated in response to chronic baroreceptor stimulation, and we analyzed the correlation with blood pressure changes. Twenty-one patients with drug-resistant hypertension were prospectively included in a substudy of the Device Based Therapy in Hypertension Trial. Heart rate variability and heart rate turbulence were analyzed using 24-hour ECG. Recordings were obtained 1 month after device implantation with the stimulator off and after 3 months of chronic electric stimulation (stimulator on). Chronic baroreceptor stimulation decreased office blood pressure from 185+/-31/109+/-24 mm Hg to 154+/-23/95+/-16 mm Hg (P<0.0001/P=0.002). Mean heart rate decreased from 81+/-11 to 76+/-10 beats per minute(-1) (P=0.001). Heart rate variability frequency-domain parameters assessed using fast Fourier transformation (FFT; ratio of low frequency:high frequency: 2.78 versus 2.24 for off versus on; P<0.001) were significantly changed during stimulation of the carotid baroreceptor, and heart rate turbulence onset was significantly decreased (turbulence onset: -0.002 versus -0.015 for off versus on; P=0.004). In conclusion, chronic baroreceptor stimulation causes sustained changes in heart rate variability and heart rate turbulence that are consistent with inhibition of sympathetic activity and increase of parasympathetic activity in patients with drug-resistant systemic hypertension; these changes correlate with blood pressure reduction. Whether the autonomic modulation has favorable cardiovascular effects beyond blood pressure control should be investigated in further studies.

Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in AIDS-free HIV-1-infected patients: a collaborative analysis of 18 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND: The CD4 cell count at which combination antiretroviral therapy should be started is a central, unresolved issue in the care of HIV-1-infected patients. In the absence of randomised trials, we examined this question in prospective cohort studies. METHODS: We analysed data from 18 cohort studies of patients with HIV. Antiretroviral-naive patients from 15 of these studies were eligible for inclusion if they had started combination antiretroviral therapy (while AIDS-free, with a CD4 cell count less than 550 cells per microL, and with no history of injecting drug use) on or after Jan 1, 1998. We used data from patients followed up in seven of the cohorts in the era before the introduction of combination therapy (1989-95) to estimate distributions of lead times (from the first CD4 cell count measurement in an upper range to the upper threshold of a lower range) and unseen AIDS and death events (occurring before the upper threshold of a lower CD4 cell count range is reached) in the absence of treatment. These estimations were used to impute completed datasets in which lead times and unseen AIDS and death events were added to data for treated patients in deferred therapy groups. We compared the effect of deferred initiation of combination therapy with immediate initiation on rates of AIDS and death, and on death alone, in adjacent CD4 cell count ranges of width 100 cells per microL. FINDINGS: Data were obtained for 21 247 patients who were followed up during the era before the introduction of combination therapy and 24 444 patients who were followed up from the start of treatment. Deferring combination therapy until a CD4 cell count of 251-350 cells per microL was associated with higher rates of AIDS and death than starting therapy in the range 351-450 cells per microL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.04-1.57). The adverse effect of deferring treatment increased with decreasing CD4 cell count threshold. Deferred initiation of combination therapy was also associated with higher mortality rates, although effects on mortality were less marked than effects on AIDS and death (HR 1.13, 0.80-1.60, for deferred initiation of treatment at CD4 cell count 251-350 cells per microL compared with initiation at 351-450 cells per microL). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that 350 cells per microL should be the minimum threshold for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and should help to guide physicians and patients in deciding when to start treatment.

Comparison of drug retention rates and causes of drug discontinuation between anti-tumor necrosis factor agents in rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE: Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors have revolutionized the treatment of severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA), yet drug discontinuation is common. The aim of this study was to compare treatment retention rates and specific causes of anti-TNF discontinuation in a population-based RA cohort. METHODS: All patients treated with etanercept, infliximab, or adalimumab within the Swiss Clinical Quality Management RA cohort between 1997 and 2006 were included in the study. Causes of treatment discontinuation were broadly categorized as adverse events (AEs) or nontoxic causes, and further subdivided into specific categories. Specific causes of treatment interruption were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 2,364 anti-TNF treatment courses met the inclusion criteria. Treatment discontinuation was reported 803 times: 309 with etanercept, 249 with infliximab, and 245 with adalimumab. Drug inefficacy represented the largest single cause of treatment discontinuation (55.8% of cases). The median time of receiving anti-TNF therapy was 37 months, but discontinuation rates differed between the 3 anti-TNF agents (P < 0.001), with shorter retention rates for infliximab (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24, 99% confidence interval [99% CI] 1.01-1.51). The specific causes of treatment discontinuation revealed an increased risk of AEs with infliximab (HR 1.4, 99% CI 1.003-1.96), mostly due to an increased risk of infusion or allergic reactions (HR 2.11, 99% CI 1.23-3.62). Other discontinuation causes were equally distributed between the anti-TNF agents. CONCLUSION: In this population, infliximab was associated with higher overall discontinuation rates compared with etanercept and adalimumab, which is mainly due to an increased risk of infusion or allergic reactions.

Fetal gene therapy: opportunities and risks

Advances in human prenatal medicine and molecular genetics have allowed the diagnosis of many genetic diseases early in gestation. In-utero transplantation of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) has been successfully used as a therapy in different animal models and recently also in human fetuses. Unfortunately, clinical success of this novel treatment is limited by the lack of donor cell engraftment in non-immunocompromised hosts and is thus restricted to diseases where the fetus is affected by severe immunodeficiency. Gene therapy using genetically modified autologous HSC circumvents allogeneic HLA barriers and constitutes one of the most promising new approaches to correct genetic deficits in the fetus. Recent developments of strategies to overcome failure of efficient transduction of quiescent hematopoietic cells include the use of new vector constructs and transduction protocols. These improvements open new perspectives for gene therapy in general and for prenatal gene transfer in particular. The fetus may be especially susceptible for successful gene therapy due to the immunologic naiveté of the immature hematopoietic system during gestation, precluding an immune reaction towards the transgene. Ethical issues, in particular those regarding treatment safety, must be taken into account before clinical trials with fetal gene therapy in human pregnancies can be initiated.

Self-reported alcohol consumption and its association with adherence and outcome of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption leading to morbidity and mortality affects HIV-infected individuals. Here, we aimed to study self-reported alcohol consumption and to determine its association with adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV surrogate markers. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on daily alcohol consumption from August 2005 to August 2007 were analysed and categorized according to the World Health Organization definition (light, moderate or severe health risk). Multivariate logistic regression models and Pearson's chi(2) statistics were used to test the influence of alcohol use on endpoints. RESULTS: Of 6,323 individuals, 52.3% consumed alcohol less than once a week in the past 6 months. Alcohol intake was deemed light in 39.9%, moderate in 5.0% and severe in 2.8%. Higher alcohol consumption was significantly associated with older age, less education, injection drug use, being in a drug maintenance programme, psychiatric treatment, hepatitis C virus coinfection and with a longer time since diagnosis of HIV. Lower alcohol consumption was found in males, non-Caucasians, individuals currently on ART and those with more ART experience. In patients on ART (n=4,519), missed doses and alcohol consumption were positively correlated (P<0.001). Severe alcohol consumers, who were pretreated with ART, were more often off treatment despite having CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/microl; however, severe alcohol consumption per se did not delay starting ART. In treated individuals, alcohol consumption was not associated with worse HIV surrogate markers. CONCLUSIONS: Higher alcohol consumption in HIV-infected individuals was associated with several psychosocial and demographic factors, non-adherence to ART and, in pretreated individuals, being off treatment despite low CD4+ T-cell counts.

Long-term trends of HIV type 1 drug resistance prevalence among antiretroviral treatment-experienced patients in Switzerland

BACKGROUND:Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. METHODS:On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). RESULTS:Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had >or= 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. CONCLUSIONS:Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

Hierarchical modeling gave plausible estimates of associations between metabolic syndrome and components of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.