Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil

This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.

Demand aggregation and credit risk effects in pooled procurement: evidence from the Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies

Pooled procurement has an important role in reducing acquisition prices of goods. A pool of buyers, which aggregates demand for its members, increases bargaining power and allows suppliers to achieve economies of scale and scope in the production. Such aggregation demand e ect lowers prices paid for buyers. However, when a buyer with a good reputation for paying suppliers in a timely manner is joined in the pool by a buyer with bad reputation may have its price paid increased due to the credit risk e ect on prices. This will happen because prices paid in a pooled procurement should refect the (higher) average buyers' credit risk. Using a data set on Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, we nd evidence supporting both e ects. We show that the prices paid by public bodies in Brazil are lower when they buy through pooled procurement than individually. On the other hand, federal agencies (i.e. good buyers) pay higher prices for products when they are joined by state agencies (i.e. bad buyers) in a pool. Such evidence suggests that pooled procurement should be carefully designed to avoid that prices paid increase for its members.

Demand- side resistance to creative destruction in schumpeterian growth theory

The Schumpelerian model of endogeno~s growlh is generalized with lhe introduction of stochastic resislance. by agenls other Ihan producers. to lhe innovations which drive growth. This causes a queue to be formcd of innovations, alrcady discovered, bUI waiting to be adopled~ A slationary stochastic equilibrium (SSE) is obtained when the queue is stable~ It is shown that in the SSE, such resistance will always reduce lhe average growth iate hut it may increa~e wclfare in certain silualions. In an example, Ihis is when innovatiuns are small anti monopoly power great. The cont1icl hetween this welfare motive for resistance and those of rent-seeking innovalors.may well explain why growth rates differ.

Demand and supply: price elasticities and corporate performance in the UK

This paper investigates the relationship between consumer demand and corporate performance in several consumer industries in the UK, using two independent datasets. It uses data on consumer expenditures and the retail price index to estimate Almost Ideal Demand Systems on micro-data and compute timevarying price elasticities of demand for disaggregated commodity groups. Then, it matches the product definitions to the Standard Industry Classification and uses the estimated elasticities to investigate the impact of consumer behaviour on firm-level profitability equations. The time-varying household characteristics are ideal instruments for the demand effects in the firms' supply equation. The paper concludes that demand elasticities have a significant and tangible impact on the profitability of UK firms and that this impact can shed some light on the relationship between market structure and economic performance.

Aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis: a paradox in the estimation of money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trapo Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when heterogeneity among micro units is present. The prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations. Moreover. policy evaluation based on aggregate data can be grossly misleading.

Bias from ignoring price dispersion in demand estimation

Consumers often pay different prices for the same product bought in the same store at the same time. However, the demand estimation literature has ignored that fact using, instead, aggregate measures such as the “list” or average price. In this paper we show that this will lead to biased price coefficients. Furthermore, we perform simple comparative statics simulation exercises for the logit and random coefficient models. In the “list” price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers facing discount prices is higher and when consumers are more unwilling to buy the product so that they almost only do it when facing discount. In the average price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers that have access to discount are similar to the ones that do not have access and when consumers willingness to buy is very dependent on idiosyncratic shocks. Also bias is less problematic in the average price case in markets with a lot of bargain deals, so that prices are as good as individual. We conclude by proposing ways that the econometrician can reduce this bias using different information that he may have available.

Statistics and kinetics of single-molecule electron transfer dynamics in complex environments: A simulation model study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Seeder-fertilizer machine: energetic demand as a function of vegetal covering handling and manure deposition shank depth in no-tillage system

O trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a demanda energética de uma semeadora-adubadora, em função do tipo e manejo da cultura de cobertura vegetal e da profundidade da haste de deposição de adubo. Foi utilizado um trator Valtra BM100, instrumentado, para tracionar uma semeadora-adubadora de precisão equipada com quatro fileiras de semeadura espaçadas de 0,9 m para cultura de milho. O experimento foi conduzido em parcelas subsubdivididas, na área experimental do Laboratório de Máquinas e Mecanização Agrícola (LAMMA) da UNESP-Jaboticabal, utilizando duas culturas de cobertura (mucuna-preta e crotalária), três manejos dessas coberturas, sendo dois mecânicos (triturador de palhas e rolo-faca) e um químico (pulverização com herbicida), realizados 120 dias após a semeadura das culturas de cobertura e três profundidades da haste de deposição do adubo (0,11; 0,14 e 0,17 m), perfazendo 18 tratamentos, com quatro repetições, totalizando 72 observações. Foram avaliados os parâmetros velocidade de deslocamento, patinagem, força na barra de tração, força de pico, potência na barra de tração, potência de pico e consumo de combustível. Pôde-se concluir que a força na barra de tração foi menor para as profundidades de 0,11 e 0,14 m da haste sulcadora de adubo, o mesmo ocorrendo para força de pico, potência na barra de tração e consumo volumétrico. O consumo específico foi menor na profundidade de 0,17 m da haste sulcadora de adubo. As culturas de cobertura e seus manejos não interferiram no desempenho das máquinas estudadas.

Task demand effects on postural control in older adults

The literature shows conflicting results regarding older adults' (OA) postural control performance. Differing task demands amongst scientific studies may contribute to such ambiguous results. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the performance of postural control in older adults and the relationship between visual information and body sway as a function of task demands. Old and young adults (YA) maintained an upright stance on different bases of support (normal, tandem and reduced), both with and without vision, and both with and without room movement. In the more demanding tasks, the older adults displayed greater body sway than the younger adults and older adults were more influenced by the manipulation of the visual information due to the room movement. However, in the normal support condition, the influence of the moving room was similar for the two groups. These results suggest that task demand is an important aspect to consider when examining postural control in older adults. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Second-order statistics for diversity-combining, techniques in Nakagami-fading channels

Exact and closed-form expressions for the level crossing rate and average fade duration are presented for the M branch pure selection combining (PSC), equal gain combining (EGC), and maximal ratio combining (MRC) techniques, assuming independent branches in a Nakagami environment. The analytical results are thoroughly validated by reducing the general case to some special cases, for which the solutions are known, and by means of simulation for the more general case. The model developed here is general and can be easily applied to other fading statistics (e.g., Rice).

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in demand

This paper presents two mathematical models and one methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand. The first model analyzed the uncertainty in the system as a whole; then, this model considers the uncertainty in the total demand of the power system. The second one analyzed the uncertainty in each load bus individually. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The models presented are solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand.

Size limiting in Tsallis statistics

Power law scaling is observed in many physical, biological and socio-economical complex systems and is now considered an important property of these systems. In general, power law exists in the central part of the distribution. It has deviations from power law for very small and very large variable sizes. Tsallis, through non-extensive thermodynamics, explained power law distribution in many cases including deviation from the power law. In case of very large steps, the used the heuristic crossover approach. In the present we present an alternative model in which we consider that the entropy factor 9 decreases with variable size due to the softening of long range interactions or memory. We apply this model for distribution of citation index of scientists and examination scores and are able to explain the distribution for entire variable range. In the present model, we can have very sharp cut-off without interfering with power law in its central part as observed in many cases. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Near-infrared Raman spectroscopy to detect anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibody in blood sera of domestic cats: quantitative analysis based on partial least-squares multivariate statistics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in generation and demand

This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand and generation. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The model presented results in an optimization problem that is solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for known systems from the literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand and generation. ©2008 IEEE.

ECLAC Development of official statistics in the region. Report of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean on the development of official statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean

This document was prepared by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC); and offers a description of the main trends in the development of official statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean and the principal challenges in that regard.The first chapter provides an analysis of the state of development of statistical production in the region, based on statistical information for 41 Latin American and Caribbean countries and eight specific areas. The institutional organization of national statistical systems in the region is also described. Chapter II examines the history and current status of mechanisms for regional and subregional coordination and of the Statistical Conference of the Americas of ECLAC. Chapter III describes the main challenges for official statistics in the countries of the region and the strategies that the Statistical Conference of the Americas and ECLAC propose to implement in order to address them.