Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River Virus transmission in Queensland, Australia

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.

An intelligent data mining technique for product quality improvement

Advances in data mining have provided techniques for automatically discovering underlying knowledge and extracting useful information from large volumes of data. Data mining offers tools for quick discovery of relationships, patterns and knowledge in large complex databases. Application of data mining to manufacturing is relatively limited mainly because of complexity of manufacturing data. Growing self organizing map (GSOM) algorithm has been proven to be an efficient algorithm to analyze unsupervised DNA data. However, it produced unsatisfactory clustering when used on some large manufacturing data. In this paper a data mining methodology has been proposed using a GSOM tool which was developed using a modified GSOM algorithm. The proposed method is used to generate clusters for good and faulty products from a manufacturing dataset. The clustering quality (CQ) measure proposed in the paper is used to evaluate the performance of the cluster maps. The paper also proposed an automatic identification of variables to find the most probable causative factor(s) that discriminate between good and faulty product by quickly examining the historical manufacturing data. The proposed method offers the manufacturers to smoothen the production flow and improve the quality of the products. Simulation results on small and large manufacturing data show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Seed Transmission of Broad Bean Stain Virus in the Wild Legume Vicia Palestina Boiss

Abstract Seed-transmissibility of brood bean stain virus (BBSV) was investigated in a number of wild legume species. Genninating axes of seeds coliected from BBSV -infected plants were tested by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The virus was found to be seedtransmitted in Vida pal«stina.

Whitefly Transmission and Efficient ssDNA Accumulation of Bean Golden Mosaic Geminivirus Require Functional Coat Protein

Bean golden mosaic geminivirus (BGMV) has a bipartite genome composed of two circular ssDNA components (DNA-A and DNA-B) and is transmitted by the whitefly, Bemisia tabaci. DNA-A encodes the viral replication proteins and the coat protein. To determine the role of BGMV coat protein systemic infection and whitefly transmission, two deletions and a restriction fragment inversion were introduced into the BGMV coat protein gene. All three coat protein mutants produced systemic infections when coinoculated with DNA-B onto Phaseolus vulgaris using electric discharge particle acceleration "particle gun." However, they were not sap transmissible and coat protein was not detected in mutant-infected plants. In addition, none of the mutants were transmitted by whiteflies. With all three mutants, ssDNA accumulation of DNA-A and DNA-B was reduced 25- to 50-fold and 3- to 10-fold, respectively, as compared to that of wild-type DNA. No effect on dsDNA-A accumulation was detected and there was 2- to 5-fold increase in dsDNA-B accumulation. Recombinants between the mutated DNA-A and DNA-B forms were identified when the inoculated coat protein mutant was linearized in the common region.

Measuring falls events in acute hospitals-A comparison of three reporting methods to identify missing data in the hospital reporting system

OBJECTIVES: To compare three different methods of falls reporting and examine the characteristics of the data missing from the hospital incident reporting system. DESIGN: Fourteen-month prospective observational study nested within a randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Rehabilitation, stroke, medical, surgical, and orthopedic wards in Perth and Brisbane, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Fallers (n5153) who were part of a larger trial (1,206 participants, mean age 75.1 � 11.0). MEASUREMENTS: Three falls events reporting measures: participants’ self-report of fall events, fall events reported in participants’ case notes, and falls events reported through the hospital reporting systems. RESULTS: The three reporting systems identified 245 falls events in total. Participants’ case notes captured 226 (92.2%) falls events, hospital incident reporting systems captured 185 (75.5%) falls events, and participant selfreport captured 147 (60.2%) falls events. Falls events were significantly less likely to be recorded in hospital reporting systems when a participant sustained a subsequent fall, (P5.01) or when the fall occurred in the morning shift (P5.01) or afternoon shift (P5.01). CONCLUSION: Falls data missing from hospital incident report systems are not missing completely at random and therefore will introduce bias in some analyses if the factor investigated is related to whether the data ismissing.Multimodal approaches to collecting falls data are preferable to relying on a single source alone.

A Data Picture of Australia's Arts and Entertainment Sector 2010

Australia’s Arts and Entertainment Sector underpins cultural and social innovation, improves the quality of community life, is essential to maintaining our cities as world class attractors of talent and investment, and helps create ‘Brand Australia’ in the global marketplace of ideas (QUT Creative Industries Faculty 2010). The sector makes a significant contribution to the Australian economy. So what is the size and nature of this contribution? The Creative Industries Faculty at Queensland University of Technology recently conducted an exercise to source and present statistics in order to produce a data picture of Australia’s Arts and Entertainment Sector. The exercise involved gathering the latest statistics on broadcasting, new media, performing arts, and music composition, distribution and publishing as well as Australia’s performance in world markets.

Using routinely collected hospital data for child maltreatment surveillance : issues, methods and patterns

Background: International data on child maltreatment are largely derived from child protection agencies, and predominantly report only substantiated cases of child maltreatment. This approach underestimates the incidence of maltreatment and makes inter-jurisdictional comparisons difficult. There has been a growing recognition of the importance of health professionals in identifying, documenting and reporting suspected child maltreatment. This study aimed to describe the issues around case identification using coded morbidity data, outline methods for selecting and grouping relevant codes, and illustrate patterns of maltreatment identified. Methods: A comprehensive review of the ICD-10-AM classification system was undertaken, including review of index terms, a free text search of tabular volumes, and a review of coding standards pertaining to child maltreatment coding. Identified codes were further categorised into maltreatment types including physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional or psychological abuse, and neglect. Using these code groupings, one year of Australian hospitalisation data for children under 18 years of age was examined to quantify the proportion of patients identified and to explore the characteristics of cases assigned maltreatment-related codes. Results: Less than 0.5% of children hospitalised in Australia between 2005 and 2006 had a maltreatment code assigned, almost 4% of children with a principal diagnosis of a mental and behavioural disorder and over 1% of children with an injury or poisoning as the principal diagnosis had a maltreatment code assigned. The patterns of children assigned with definitive T74 codes varied by sex and age group. For males selected as having a maltreatment-related presentation, physical abuse was most commonly coded (62.6% of maltreatment cases) while for females selected as having a maltreatment-related presentation, sexual abuse was the most commonly assigned form of maltreatment (52.9% of maltreatment cases). Conclusion: This study has demonstrated that hospital data could provide valuable information for routine monitoring and surveillance of child maltreatment, even in the absence of population-based linked data sources. With national and international calls for a public health response to child maltreatment, better understanding of, investment in and utilisation of our core national routinely collected data sources will enhance the evidence-base needed to support an appropriate response to children at risk.

Reliability of routinely collected hospital data for child maltreatment surveillance

Background: Internationally, research on child maltreatment-related injuries has been hampered by a lack of available routinely collected health data to identify cases, examine causes, identify risk factors and explore health outcomes. Routinely collected hospital separation data coded using the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) system provide an internationally standardised data source for classifying and aggregating diseases, injuries, causes of injuries and related health conditions for statistical purposes. However, there has been limited research to examine the reliability of these data for child maltreatment surveillance purposes. This study examined the reliability of coding of child maltreatment in Queensland, Australia. Methods: A retrospective medical record review and recoding methodology was used to assess the reliability of coding of child maltreatment. A stratified sample of hospitals across Queensland was selected for this study, and a stratified random sample of cases was selected from within those hospitals. Results: In 3.6% of cases the coders disagreed on whether any maltreatment code could be assigned (definite or possible) versus no maltreatment being assigned (unintentional injury), giving a sensitivity of 0.982 and specificity of 0.948. The review of these cases where discrepancies existed revealed that all cases had some indications of risk documented in the records. 15.5% of cases originally assigned a definite or possible maltreatment code, were recoded to a more or less definite strata. In terms of the number and type of maltreatment codes assigned, the auditor assigned a greater number of maltreatment types based on the medical documentation than the original coder assigned (22% of the auditor coded cases had more than one maltreatment type assigned compared to only 6% of the original coded data). The maltreatment types which were the most ‘under-coded’ by the original coder were psychological abuse and neglect. Cases coded with a sexual abuse code showed the highest level of reliability. Conclusion: Given the increasing international attention being given to improving the uniformity of reporting of child-maltreatment related injuries and the emphasis on the better utilisation of routinely collected health data, this study provides an estimate of the reliability of maltreatment-specific ICD-10-AM codes assigned in an inpatient setting.

Getting research data ‘out there’ : collaborative solutions to identifying, describing and making research data more visible

At QUT research data refers to information that is generated or collected to be used as primary sources in the production of original research results, and which would be required to validate or replicate research findings (Callan, De Vine, & Baker, 2010). Making publicly funded research data discoverable by the broader research community and the public is a key aim of the Australian National Data Service (ANDS). Queensland University of Technology (QUT) has been innovating in this space by undertaking mutually dependant technical and content (metadata) focused projects funded by ANDS. Research Data Librarians identified and described datasets generated from Category 1 funded research at QUT, by interviewing researchers, collecting metadata and fashioning metadata records for upload to the Australian Research Data commons (ARDC) and exposure through the Research Data Australia interface. In parallel to this project, a Research Data Management Service and Metadata hub project were being undertaken by QUT High Performance Computing & Research Support specialists. These projects will collectively store and aggregate QUT’s metadata and research data from multiple repositories and administration systems and contribute metadata directly by OAI-PMH compliant feed to RDA. The pioneering nature of the work has resulted in a collaborative project dynamic where good data management practices and the discoverability and sharing of research data were the shared drivers for all activity. Each project’s development and progress was dependent on feedback from the other. The metadata structure evolved in tandem with the development of the repository and the development of the repository interface responded to meet the needs of the data interview process. The project environment was one of bottom-up collaborative approaches to process and system development which matched top-down strategic alliances crossing organisational boundaries in order to provide the deliverables required by ANDS. This paper showcases the work undertaken at QUT, focusing on the Seeding the Commons project as a case study, and illustrates how the data management projects are interconnected. It describes the processes and systems being established to make QUT research data more visible and the nature of the collaborations between organisational areas required to achieve this. The paper concludes with the Seeding the Commons project outcomes and the contribution this project made to getting more research data ‘out there’.

A criminological analysis : using real-time monitoring to gather data on online predators

The Internet presents a constantly evolving frontier for criminology and policing, especially in relation to online predators – paedophiles operating within the Internet for safer access to children, child pornography and networking opportunities with other online predators. The goals of this qualitative study are to undertake behavioural research – identify personality types and archetypes of online predators and compare and contrast them with behavioural profiles and other psychological research on offline paedophiles and sex offenders. It is also an endeavour to gather intelligence on the technological utilisation of online predators and conduct observational research on the social structures of online predator communities. These goals were achieved through the covert monitoring and logging of public activity within four Internet Relay Chat(rooms) (IRC) themed around child sexual abuse and which were located on the Undernet network. Five days of monitoring was conducted on these four chatrooms between Wednesday 1 to Sunday 5 April 2009; this raw data was collated and analysed. The analysis identified four personality types – the gentleman predator, the sadist, the businessman and the pretender – and eight archetypes consisting of the groomers, dealers, negotiators, roleplayers, networkers, chat requestors, posters and travellers. The characteristics and traits of these personality types and archetypes, which were extracted from the literature dealing with offline paedophiles and sex offenders, are detailed and contrasted against the online sexual predators identified within the chatrooms, revealing many similarities and interesting differences particularly with the businessman and pretender personality types. These personality types and archetypes were illustrated by selecting users who displayed the appropriate characteristics and tracking them through the four chatrooms, revealing intelligence data on the use of proxies servers – especially via the Tor software – and other security strategies such as Undernet’s host masking service. Name and age changes, which is used as a potential sexual grooming tactic was also revealed through the use of Analyst’s Notebook software and information on ISP information revealed the likelihood that many online predators were not using any safety mechanism and relying on the anonymity of the Internet. The activities of these online predators were analysed, especially in regards to child sexual grooming and the ‘posting’ of child pornography, which revealed a few of the methods in which online predators utilised new Internet technologies to sexually groom and abuse children – using technologies such as instant messengers, webcams and microphones – as well as store and disseminate illegal materials on image sharing websites and peer-to-peer software such as Gigatribe. Analysis of the social structures of the chatrooms was also carried out and the community functions and characteristics of each chatroom explored. The findings of this research have indicated several opportunities for further research. As a result of this research, recommendations are given on policy, prevention and response strategies with regards to online predators.

Use of IEEE 1588-2008 for a sampled value process bus in transmission substations

IEC Technical Committee 57 (TC57) published a series of standards and technical reports for “Communication networks and systems for power utility automation” as the IEC 61850 series. Sampled value (SV) process buses allow for the removal of potentially lethal voltages and damaging currents inside substation control rooms and marshalling kiosks, reduce the amount of cabling required in substations, and facilitate the adoption of non-conventional instrument transformers. IEC 61850-9-2 provides an inter-operable solution to support multi-vendor process bus solutions. A time synchronisation system is required for a SV process bus, however the details are not defined in IEC 61850-9-2. IEEE Std 1588-2008, Precision Time Protocol version 2 (PTPv2), provides the greatest accuracy of network based time transfer systems, with timing errors of less than 100 ns achievable. PTPv2 is proposed by the IEC Smart Grid Strategy Group to synchronise IEC 61850 based substation automation systems. IEC 61850-9-2, PTPv2 and Ethernet are three complementary protocols that together define the future of sampled value digital process connections in substations. The suitability of PTPv2 for use with SV is evaluated, with preliminary results indicating that steady state performance is acceptable (jitter < 300 ns), and that extremely stable grandmaster oscillators are required to ensure SV timing requirements are met when recovering from loss of external synchronisation (such as GPS).

Decentralised Data Fusion with Parzen Density Estimates

Decentralised sensor networks typically consist of multiple processing nodes supporting one or more sensors. These nodes are interconnected via wireless communication. Practical applications of Decentralised Data Fusion have generally been restricted to using Gaussian based approaches such as the Kalman or Information Filter This paper proposes the use of Parzen window estimates as an alternate representation to perform Decentralised Data Fusion. It is required that the common information between two nodes be removed from any received estimates before local data fusion may occur Otherwise, estimates may become overconfident due to data incest. A closed form approximation to the division of two estimates is described to enable conservative assimilation of incoming information to a node in a decentralised data fusion network. A simple example of tracking a moving particle with Parzen density estimates is shown to demonstrate how this algorithm allows conservative assimilation of network information.

Rich probabilistic representations for bearing only decentralised data fusion

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the validity of using Gaussian mixture models (GMM) for representing probabilistic distributions in a decentralised data fusion (DDF) framework. GMMs are a powerful and compact stochastic representation allowing efficient communication of feature properties in large scale decentralised sensor networks. It will be shown that GMMs provide a basis for analytical solutions to the update and prediction operations for general Bayesian filtering. Furthermore, a variant on the Covariance Intersect algorithm for Gaussian mixtures will be presented ensuring a conservative update for the fusion of correlated information between two nodes in the network. In addition, purely visual sensory data will be used to show that decentralised data fusion and tracking of non-Gaussian states observed by multiple autonomous vehicles is feasible.

Applying incremental EM to Bayesian classifiers in the learning of hyperspectral remote sensing data

In this paper, we apply the incremental EM method to Bayesian Network Classifiers to learn and interpret hyperspectral sensor data in robotic planetary missions. Hyperspectral image spectroscopy is an emerging technique for geological investigations from airborne or orbital sensors. Many spacecraft carry spectroscopic equipment as wavelengths outside the visible light in the electromagnetic spectrum give much greater information about an object. The algorithm used is an extension to the standard Expectation Maximisation (EM). The incremental method allows us to learn and interpret the data as they become available. Two Bayesian network classifiers were tested: the Naive Bayes, and the Tree-Augmented-Naive Bayes structures. Our preliminary experiments show that incremental learning with unlabelled data can improve the accuracy of the classifier.

Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.