Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Experimental investigation on the chaotic phenomena in the wake of a natural thermal convection flow

Chaotic phenomena in the wake of thermal convection flow fields above a heating flat plate were investigated experimentally. A newly developed electron beam fluorescence technique (EBF) was used to simultaneously measure density fluctuation at 7 points in a cross section above the plate. Correlation dimensions, intermittence coefficients, Fourier spectrum have been obtained for different Grashof numbers. Spatial distribution of correlation dimensions are presented. The experimental result shows that there is a certain relationship between the density fluctuation and the Gr number. And time-spacial characteristic of chaos evolution is also given.

A New Ignition Criterion Based Upon a Critical Thermal Energy Density

It has long been known that various ignition criteria of energetic materials have been limited in applicability to small regions. In order to explore the physical nature of ignition, we calculated how much thermal energy per unit mass of energetic materials was absorbed under different external stimuli. Hence, data of several typical sensitivity tests were analyzed by order of magnitude estimation. Then a new concept on critical thermal energy density was formulated. Meanwhile, the chemical nature of ignition was probed into by chemical kinetics.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Modeling Nonlinear Peeling of Ductile Thin Films-Critical Assessment of Analytical Bending Models Using FE Simulations

Three analytical double-parameter criteria based on a bending model and a two-dimensional finite element analysis model are presented for the modeling of ductile thin film undergoing a nonlinear peeling process. The bending model is based on different governing parameters: (1) the interfacial fracture toughness and the separation strength, (2) the interfacial fracture toughness and the crack tip slope angle, and (3) the interfacial fracture toughness and the critical Mises effective strain of the delaminated thin film at the crack tip. Thin film nonlinear peeling under steady-state condition is solved with the different governing parameters. In addition, the peeling test problem is simulated by using the elastic-plastic finite element analysis model. A critical assessment of the three analytical bending models is made by comparison of the bending model solutions with the finite element analysis model solutions. Furthermore, through analyses and comparisons for solutions based on both the bending model and the finite element analysis model, some connections between the bending model and the finite element analysis model are developed. Moreover, in the present research, the effect of different selections for cohesive zone shape on the ductile film peeling solutions is discussed.

Innovation processes within the healthcare industry: Determining critical success factors aligned to product strategies

The impact of differing product strategies on product innovation processes pursued by healthcare firms is discussed. The critical success factors aligned to product strategies are presented. A definite split between pioneering product strategies and late entrant product strategies is also recognised.

Investigation of critical state in melt processed YBa2Cu3O7-δ thick films

The magnetic moment of square planar melt processed YBa2Cu3O7-δ thick films is observed to scale with the cube of the sample width at 4.2 K, suggesting that current flow on the length scale of the film determines its magnetization at this temperature. A well-defined discontinuity in slope in the scaling data at a sample width corresponding to the average grain size (≈2 mm) implies the coexistence of distinct intra- and inter-grain critical current densities of 1.1 × 105Acm-2 and 0.4 × 105Acm-2 at 1 T and 4.2 K. The presence of a critical state in the films at 4.2T is confirmed by removing the central section from a specimen. The observed change in magnetic moment is in excellent agreement with theory for fields greater than ≈2 T. A critical state is not observed at 77 K which suggests that the grains are only weakly coupled at the higher temperature. © 1994.

Correlation of transport and magnetic critical currents in melt-processed YBa2Cu3O7-δ thick films

Transport critical current measurements have been carried out on melt-processed thick films of YBa2Cu3O7-δ on yttria-stabilized zirconia in fields of up to 8 T both within grains and across grain boundaries. These measurements yield Jc values of ∼3000 A cm-2 at 4.2 K and zero magnetic field and 400 A cm -2 at 77 K and zero magnetic field, taking the entire sample width as the definitive dimension. Optical and scanning electron microscopy reveals that the thick-film grains consist typically of a central "hub" region ∼50 μm in diameter, which is well connected to radial subgrains or "spokes" which extend ∼1 mm to define the complete grain structure. Attempts have been made to correlate the transport measurements of inter- and intra-hub-and-spoke (H-S) critical current with values of this parameter derived previously from magnetization measurements. Analysis of the transport measurements indicates that current flow through H-S grains is constrained to paths along the spokes via the grain hub. Taking the size of the hub as the definitive dimension yields an intra-H-S grain Jc of ∼60 000 A cm-2 at 4.2 K and 0 T, which is in reasonable agreement with the magnetization data. Experiments in which the hub is removed from individual grains confirm that this feature determines critically the J c of the film.

Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).

Investigation on Nonequlibrium Radiation and Relaxation Phenomena in Shock Tubes

The experimental results for the excited time of the nonequlibrium radiation and the ionization behind strong shock waves are presented. Using an optical multichannel analyzer, InSb infrared detectors and near-free-molecular Langmuir probes, the infrared radiation, the electron density of air and the nonequilibrium radiation spectra at different moments of the relaxation process in nitrogen test gas behind normal shock waves were obtained, respectively, in hydrogen oxygen combustion driven shock tubes.

The Nonlinear Phenomena Of Thin Polydimethylsiloxane (Pdms) Films In Electrowetting

Electrowetting (EW) is an effective way to manipulate small volume liquid in micro- and nano-devices, for it can improve its wettability. Since the late 1990s, electrowetting-on-dielectric (EWOD) has been used widely in bio-MEMS, lab-on-a-chip, etc. Polydimethlsiloxane (PDMS) is extensively utilized as base materials in the fabrication of biomedical micro- and nano-devices. The properties of thin PDMS films used as dielectric layer in EW are studied in this paper. The experimental results show that the thin PDMS films exhibit good properties in EWOD. As to PDMS films with different thicknesses, a threshold voltage and a hysteresis were observed in the EIWOD experiments.

Influence Of Free Surface Curvature Of A Liquid Layer On The Critical Marangoni Convection

The Pearson instability was suggested to discuss the onset of Marangoni convection in a liquid layer of large Prandtl number under an applied temperature difference perpendicular to the free surface in the microgravity environment. In this case, the temperature distribution on the curved free surface is nonuniform, and the thermocapillary convection is induced and coupled with the Marangoni convection. In the present paper the effect of volume ratio of the liquid layer on the critical Marangoni convection and the corresponding spatial variation of the convection structure in zero-gravity condition were numerically investigated by two-dimensional model. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.