A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Singular Perturbation for the Discounted Continuous Control of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

This paper deals with the expected discounted continuous control of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP`s) using a singular perturbation approach for dealing with rapidly oscillating parameters. The state space of the PDMP is written as the product of a finite set and a subset of the Euclidean space a""e (n) . The discrete part of the state, called the regime, characterizes the mode of operation of the physical system under consideration, and is supposed to have a fast (associated to a small parameter epsilon > 0) and a slow behavior. By using a similar approach as developed in Yin and Zhang (Continuous-Time Markov Chains and Applications: A Singular Perturbation Approach, Applications of Mathematics, vol. 37, Springer, New York, 1998, Chaps. 1 and 3) the idea in this paper is to reduce the number of regimes by considering an averaged model in which the regimes within the same class are aggregated through the quasi-stationary distribution so that the different states in this class are replaced by a single one. The main goal is to show that the value function of the control problem for the system driven by the perturbed Markov chain converges to the value function of this limit control problem as epsilon goes to zero. This convergence is obtained by, roughly speaking, showing that the infimum and supremum limits of the value functions satisfy two optimality inequalities as epsilon goes to zero. This enables us to show the result by invoking a uniqueness argument, without needing any kind of Lipschitz continuity condition.

Expertise and the perception of kinematic and situational probability information

Two experiments were conducted on the nature of expert perception in the sport of squash. In the first experiment, ten expert and fifteen novice players attempted to predict the direction and force of squash strokes from either a film display (occluded at variable time periods before and after the opposing player had struck the ball) or a matched point-light display (containing only the basic kinematic features of the opponent's movement pattern). Experts outperformed the novices under both display conditions, and the same basic time windows that characterised expert and novice pick-up of information in the film task also persisted in the point-light task. This suggests that the experts' perceptual advantage is directly related to their superior pick-up of essential kinematic information. In the second experiment, the vision of six expert and six less skilled players was occluded by remotely triggered liquid-crystal spectacles at quasi-random intervals during simulated match play. Players were required to complete their current stroke even when the display was occluded and their prediction performance was assessed with respect to whether they moved to the correct half of the court to match the direction and depth of the opponent's stroke. Consistent with experiment 1, experts were found to be superior in their advance pick-up of both directional and depth information when the display was occluded during the opponent's hitting action. However, experts also remained better than chance, and clearly superior to less skilled players, in their prediction performance under conditions where occlusion occurred before any significant pre-contact preparatory movement by the opposing player was visible. This additional source of expert superiority is attributable to their superior attunement to the information contained in the situational probabilities and sequential dependences within their opponent's pattern of play.

Modulational Instability in Periodic Quadratic Nonlinear Materials

We investigate the modulational instability of plane waves in quadratic nonlinear materials with linear and nonlinear quasi-phase-matching gratings. Exact Floquet calculations, confirmed by numerical simulations, show that the periodicity can drastically alter the gain spectrum but never completely removes the instability. The low-frequency part of the gain spectrum is accurately predicted by an averaged theory and disappears for certain gratings. The high-frequency part is related to the inherent gain of the homogeneous non-phase-matched material and is a consistent spectral feature.

Quantum noise in optical fibers. I. Stochastic equations

We analyze the quantum dynamics of radiation propagating in a single-mode optical fiber with dispersion, nonlinearity, and Raman coupling to thermal phonons. We start from a fundamental Hamiltonian that includes the principal known nonlinear effects and quantum-noise sources, including linear gain and loss. Both Markovian and frequency-dependent, non-Markovian reservoirs are treated. This treatment allows quantum Langevin equations, which have a classical form except for additional quantum-noise terms, to be calculated. In practical calculations, it is more useful to transform to Wigner or 1P quasi-probability operator representations. These transformations result in stochastic equations that can be analyzed by use of perturbation theory or exact numerical techniques. The results have applications to fiber-optics communications, networking, and sensor technology.

Twisted parafermions

A new type of nonlocal currents (quasi-particles), which we call twisted parafermions, and its corresponding twisted Z-algebra are found. The system consists of one spin-1 bosonic field and six nonlocal fields of fractional spins. Jacobi-type identities for the twisted parafermions are derived, and a new conformal field theory is constructed from these currents. As an application, a parafermionic representation of the twisted affine current algebra A(2)((2)) is given.

Magma Flow Instabilities in a Volcanic Conduit: Implications for Long-Period Seismicity

Silicic volcanic eruptions are typically accompanied by repetitive Long-Period (LP) seismicity that originates from a small region of the upper conduit. These signals have the capability to advance eruption prediction, since they commonly precede a change in the eruption vigour. Shear bands forming along the conduit wall, where the shear stresses are highest, have been linked to providing the seismic trigger. However, existing computational models are unable to generate shear bands at the depths where the LP signals originate using simple magma strength models. Presented here is a model in which the magma strength is determined from a constitutive relationship dependent upon crystallinity and pressure. This results in a depth-dependent magma strength, analogous to planetary lithospheres. Hence, in shallow highly-crystalline regions a macroscopically discontinuous brittle type of deformation will prevail, whilst in deeper crystal-poor regions there will be a macroscopically continuous plastic deformation mechanism. This will result in a depth where the brittle-ductile transition occurs, and here shear bands disconnected from the free-surface may develop. We utilize the Finite Element Method and use axi-symmetric coordinates to model magma flow as a viscoplastic material, simulating quasi-static shear bands along the walls of a volcanic conduit. Model results constrained to the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, show the generation of two types of shear bands: upper-conduit shear bands that form between the free-surface to a few 100 metres below it and discrete shear bands that form at the depths where LP seismicity is measured to occur corresponding to the brittle-ductile transition and the plastic shear region. It is beyond the limitation of the model to simulate a seismic event, although the modelled viscosity within the discrete shear bands suggests a failure and healing cycle time that supports the observed LP seismicity repeat times. However, due to the paucity of data and large parameter space available these results can only be considered to be qualitative rather than quantitative at this stage.

Characterization of turbulent jets from high-aspect-ratio rectangular nozzles

Turbulent free jets issuing from rectangular slots with various high aspect ratios (15-120) are characterized. The centerline mean and rms velocities are measured using hot-wire anemometry over a downstream distance of up to 160 slot heights at a slot-height-based Reynolds number of 10000. Experimental results suggest that a rectangular jet with sufficiently high aspect ratio (> 15) may be distinguished between three flow zones: an initial quasi-plane-jet zone, a transition zone, and a final quasi-axisymmetric-jet zone. In the quasi-plane-jet zone, the turbulent velocity field is statistically similar, but not identical, to those of a plane jet. (c) 2005 American Institute of Physics.

Incoherent interlayer transport and angular-dependent magnetoresistance oscillations in layered metals

The effect of incoherent interlayer transport on the interlayer resistance of a layered metal is considered. We find that for both quasi-one-dimensional and quasi-two-dimensional Fermi liquids the angular dependence of the magnetoresistance is essentially the same for coherent and incoherent transport. Consequently, the existence of a three-dimensional Fermi surface is not necessary to explain the oscillations in the magnetoresistance that are seen in many organic conductors as the field direction is varied. [S0031-9007(98)07660-1].

Comparison of coherent and weakly incoherent transport models for the interlayer magnetoresistance of layered Fermi liquids

The interlayer magnetoresistance of layered metals in a tilted magnetic field is calculated for two distinct models for the interlayer transport. The first model involves coherent interlayer transport, and makes use of results of semiclassical or Bloch-Boltzmann transport theory. The second model involves weakly incoherent interlayer transport where the electron is scattered many times within a layer before tunneling into the next layer. The results are relevant to the interpretation of experiments on angular-dependent magnetoresistance oscillations (AMRO) in quasi-one- and quasi-two-dimensional organic metals. We find that the dependence of the magnetoresistance on the direction of the magnetic field is identical for both models except when the field is almost parallel to the layers. An important implication of this result is that a three-dimensional Fermi surface is not necessary for the observation of the Yamaji and Danner oscillations seen in quasi-two- and quasi-one-dimensional metals, respectively. A universal expression is given for the dependence of the resistance at AMRO maxima and minima on the magnetic field and scattering time (and thus the temperature). We point out three distinctive features of coherent interlayer transport: (i) a beat frequency in the magnetic oscillations of quasi-two-dimensional systems, (ii) a peak in the angular-dependent magnetoresistance when the field is sufficiently large and parallel to the layers, and (iii) a crossover from a linear to a quadratic field dependence for the magnetoresistance when the field is parallel to the layers. Properties (i) and (ii) are compared with published experimental data for a range of quasi-two-dimensional organic metals. [S0163-1829(99)02236-5].

Periodic orbit resonances in layered metals in tilted magnetic fields

The frequency dependence of the interlayer conductivity of a layered Fermi liquid in a magnetic field that is tilted away from the normal to the layers is considered. For both quasi-one- and quasi-two-dimensional systems resonances occur when the frequency is a harmonic of the frequency at which the magnetic field causes the electrons to oscillate on the Fermi surface within the layers. The intensity of the different harmonic resonances varies significantly with the direction of the field. The resonances occur for both coherent and weakly incoherent interlayer transport and so their observation does not imply the existence of a three-dimensional Fermi surface. [S0163-1829(99)51240-X].

Quasistationarity of continuous-time Markov chains with positive drift

We shall study continuous-time Markov chains on the nonnegative integers which are both irreducible and transient, and which exhibit discernible stationarity before drift to infinity sets in. We will show how this 'quasi' stationary behaviour can be modelled using a limiting conditional distribution: specifically, the limiting state probabilities conditional on not having left 0 for the last time. By way of a dual chain, obtained by killing the original process on last exit from 0, we invoke the theory of quasistationarity for absorbing Markov chains. We prove that the conditioned state probabilities of the original chain are equal to the state probabilities of its dual conditioned on non-absorption, thus allowing us to establish the simultaneous existence and then equivalence, of their limiting conditional distributions. Although a limiting conditional distribution for the dual chain is always a quasistationary distribution in the usual sense, a similar statement is not possible for the original chain.

High-frequency acousto-electric single-photon source

We propose a single optical photon source for quantum cryptography based on the acoustoelectric effect. Surface acoustic waves (SAWs) propagating through a quasi-one-dimensional channel have been shown to produce packets of electrons that reside in the SAW minima and travel at the velocity of sound. In our scheme, the electron packets are injected into a p-type region, resulting in photon emission. Since the number of electrons in each packet can be controlled down to a single electron, a stream of single- (or N-) photon states, with a creation time strongly correlated with the driving acoustic field, should be generated.

Cyclotron effective masses in layered metals

Many layered metals such as quasi-two-dimensional organic molecular crystals show properties consistent with a Fermi-liquid description at low temperatures. The effective masses extracted from the temperature dependence of the magnetic oscillations observed in these materials are in the range, m(c)*/m(e) similar to 1 - 7, suggesting that these systems are strongly correlated. However, the ratio m(c)*/m(e) contains both the renormalization due to the electron-electron interaction and the periodic potential of the lattice. We show that for any quasi-two-dimensional band structure, the cyclotron mass is proportional to the density-of-states at the Fermi energy. Due to Luttinger's theorem, this result is also valid in the presence of interactions. We then evaluate m(c) for several model band structures for the beta, kappa, and theta families of (BEDT-TTF)(2)X, where BEDT-TTF is bis-(ethylenedithia-tetrathiafulvalene) and X is an anion. We find that for kappa-(BEDT-TTF)(2)X, the cyclotron mass of the beta orbit, m(c)*(beta) is close to 2 m(c)*(alpha), where m(c)*(alpha) is the effective mass of the alpha orbit. This result is fairly insensitive to the band-structure details. For a wide range of materials we compare values of the cyclotron mass deduced from band-structure calculations to values deduced from measurements of magnetic oscillations and the specific-heat coefficient gamma.

Coupled experimental and thermodynamic modeling studies for metallurgical smelting and coal combustion slag systems

An extensive research program focused on the characterization of various metallurgical complex smelting and coal combustion slags is being undertaken. The research combines both experimental and thermodynamic modeling studies. The approach is illustrated by work on the PbO-ZnO-Al2O3-FeO-Fe2O3-CaO-SiO2 system. Experimental measurements of the liquidus and solidus have been undertaken under oxidizing and reducing conditions using equilibration, quenching, and electron probe X-ray microanalysis. The experimental program has been planned so as to obtain data for thermodynamic model development as well as for pseudo-ternary Liquidus diagrams that can be used directly by process operators. Thermodynamic modeling has been carried out using the computer system FACT, which contains thermodynamic databases with over 5000 compounds and evaluated solution models. The FACT package is used for the calculation of multiphase equilibria in multicomponent systems of industrial interest. A modified quasi-chemical solution model is used for the liquid slag phase. New optimizations have been carried out, which significantly improve the accuracy of the thermodynamic models for lead/zinc smelting and coal combustion processes. Examples of experimentally determined and calculated liquidus diagrams are presented. These examples provide information of direct relevance to various metallurgical smelting and coal combustion processes.