Decision-theoretic designs for phase II clinical trials allowing for competing studies

This article describes an approach to optimal design of phase II clinical trials using Bayesian decision theory. The method proposed extends that suggested by Stallard (1998, Biometrics54, 279–294) in which designs were obtained to maximize a gain function including the cost of drug development and the benefit from a successful therapy. Here, the approach is extended by the consideration of other potential therapies, the development of which is competing for the same limited resources. The resulting optimal designs are shown to have frequentist properties much more similar to those traditionally used in phase II trials.

Incorporating data received after a sequential trial has stopped into the final analysis: implementation and comparison of methods

In a sequential clinical trial, accrual of data on patients often continues after the stopping criterion for the study has been met. This is termed “overrunning.” Overrunning occurs mainly when the primary response from each patient is measured after some extended observation period. The objective of this article is to compare two methods of allowing for overrunning. In particular, simulation studies are reported that assess the two procedures in terms of how well they maintain the intended type I error rate. The effect on power resulting from the incorporation of “overrunning data” using the two procedures is evaluated.

Variance estimation for systematic sampling from deliberately ordered populations

The systematic sampling (SYS) design (Madow and Madow, 1944) is widely used by statistical offices due to its simplicity and efficiency (e.g., Iachan, 1982). But it suffers from a serious defect, namely, that it is impossible to unbiasedly estimate the sampling variance (Iachan, 1982) and usual variance estimators (Yates and Grundy, 1953) are inadequate and can overestimate the variance significantly (Särndal et al., 1992). We propose a novel variance estimator which is less biased and that can be implemented with any given population order. We will justify this estimator theoretically and with a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Implementation of a Bayesian design in a dose-escalation study of an experimental agent in healthy volunteers

Bayesian decision procedures have recently been developed for dose escalation in phase I clinical trials concerning pharmacokinetic responses observed in healthy volunteers. This article describes how that general methodology was extended and evaluated for implementation in a specific phase I trial of a novel compound. At the time of writing, the study is ongoing, and it will be some time before the sponsor will wish to put the results into the public domain. This article is an account of how the study was designed in a way that should prove to be safe, accurate, and efficient whatever the true nature of the compound. The study involves the observation of two pharmacokinetic endpoints relating to the plasma concentration of the compound itself and of a metabolite as well as a safety endpoint relating to the occurrence of adverse events. Construction of the design and its evaluation via simulation are presented.

Equivalence of truncated count mixture distributions and mixtures of truncated count distributions

This article is about modeling count data with zero truncation. A parametric count density family is considered. The truncated mixture of densities from this family is different from the mixture of truncated densities from the same family. Whereas the former model is more natural to formulate and to interpret, the latter model is theoretically easier to treat. It is shown that for any mixing distribution leading to a truncated mixture, a (usually different) mixing distribution can be found so. that the associated mixture of truncated densities equals the truncated mixture, and vice versa. This implies that the likelihood surfaces for both situations agree, and in this sense both models are equivalent. Zero-truncated count data models are used frequently in the capture-recapture setting to estimate population size, and it can be shown that the two Horvitz-Thompson estimators, associated with the two models, agree. In particular, it is possible to achieve strong results for mixtures of truncated Poisson densities, including reliable, global construction of the unique NPMLE (nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator) of the mixing distribution, implying a unique estimator for the population size. The benefit of these results lies in the fact that it is valid to work with the mixture of truncated count densities, which is less appealing for the practitioner but theoretically easier. Mixtures of truncated count densities form a convex linear model, for which a developed theory exists, including global maximum likelihood theory as well as algorithmic approaches. Once the problem has been solved in this class, it might readily be transformed back to the original problem by means of an explicitly given mapping. Applications of these ideas are given, particularly in the case of the truncated Poisson family.

Platelet nitric oxide synthase is activated by tyrosine dephosphorylation: possible role for SHP-1 phosphatase

Background: Endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) activity in endothelial cells is regulated by post-translational phosphorylation of critical serine, threonine and tyrosine residues in response to a variety of stimuli. However, the post-translational regulation of eNOS in platelets is poorly defined. Objectives: We investigated the role of tyrosine phosphorylation in the regulation of platelet eNOS activity. Methods: Tyrosine phosphorylation of eNOS and interaction with the tyrosine phosphatase SHP-1 were investigated by coimmunoprecipitation and immunoblotting. An in vitro immunoassay was used to determine eNOS activity together with the contribution of protein tyrosine phosphorylation. Results: We found platelet eNOS was tyrosine phosphorylated under basal conditions. Thrombin induced a dose- and time-dependent increase in eNOS activity without altering overall level of tyrosine phosphorylation, although we did observe evidence of minor tyrosine dephosphorylation. In vitro tyrosine dephosphorylation of platelet eNOS using a recombinant protein tyrosine phosphatase enhanced thrombin-induced activity compared to thrombin alone, but had no effect on endothelial eNOS activity either at basal or after stimulation with bradykinin. Having shown that dephosphorylation could modulate platelet eNOS activity we examined the role of potential protein phosphatases important for platelet eNOS activity. We found SHP-1 protein tyrosine phosphatase, co-associated with platelet eNOS in resting platelets, but does not associate with eNOS in endothelial cells. Stimulation of platelets with thrombin increased SHP-1 association with eNOS, while inhibition of SHP-1 abolished the ability of thrombin to induce elevated eNOS activity. Conclusions: Our data suggest a novel role for tyrosine dephosphorylation in platelet eNOS activation, which may be mediated by SHP-1.

The regulation of integrin-linked kinase in human platelets: evidence for involvement in the regulation of integrin alpha(2)beta(1)

Background: Activation of the platelet integrin alpha(2)beta(1) is closely regulated due to the high thrombogenicity of its ligand. As a beta(1) interacting kinase, ILK represents a candidate intracellular regulator of alpha(2)beta(1) in human platelets. Objectives We investigated the regulation of ILK in human platelets and the role of ILK in regulating alpha(2)beta(1) activation in HEL cells, a megakaryocytic cell line. Methods: An in-vitro kinase assay was used to determine the effect of platelet agonists on ILK kinase activity together with the contribution of PI3K and PKC on ILK activation. Interaction of ILK with beta(1)-integrin subunits was investigated by coimmunoprecipitation and the role of ILK in regulating alpha(2)beta(1) function assessed by overexpression studies in HEL cells. Results: We report that collagen and thrombin modulate ILK kinase activity in human platelets in an aggregation-independent manner. Furthermore, ILK activity is dually regulated by PI3K and PKC in thrombin-stimulated platelets and regulated by PI3K in collagen-stimulated cells. ILK associates with the beta(1)-integrin subunits immunoprecipitated from platelet cell lysates, an association which increased upon collagen stimulation. Overexpression of ILK in HEL cells enhanced alpha(2)beta(1)-mediated adhesion whereas overexpression of kinase-dead ILK reduced adhesion, indicating a role for this kinase in the positive regulation of alpha(2)beta(1). Conclusions: Our findings that ILK regulates alpha(2)beta(1) in HEL cells, is activated in platelets and associates with beta(1)-integrins, raise the possibility that it may play a key role in adhesion events upon agonist stimulation of platelets.

DNA variation in a 13-Mb region including the F9 gene: inferring the genealogical history and causal role of a hemophilia B mutation (IVS 5+13 A -> G)

About 5.5% of all UK hemophilia B patients have the base substitution IVS 5+13 A-->G as the only change in their factor (F)IX gene (F9). This generates a novel donor splice site which fits the consensus better than the normal intron 5 donor splice. Use of the novel splice site should result in a missense mutation followed by the abnormal addition of four amino acids to the patients' FIX. In order to explain the prevalence of this mutation, its genealogical history is examined. Analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism in the 21 reference UK individuals (from different families) with the above mutation showed identical haplotypes in 19 while two differed from the rest and from each other. In order to investigate the history of the mutation and to verify that it had occurred independently more than once, the sequence variation in 1.5-kb segments scattered over a 13-Mb region including F9 was examined in 18 patients and 15 controls. This variation was then analyzed with a recently developed Bayesian approach that reconstructs the genealogy of the gene investigated while providing evidence of independent mutations that contribute disconnected branches to the genealogical tree. The method also provides minimum estimates of the age of the mutation inherited by the members of coherent trees. This revealed that 17 or 18 mutant genes descend from a founder who probably lived 450 years ago, while one patient carries an independent mutation. The independent recurrence of the IVS5+13 A-->G mutation strongly supports the conclusion that it is the cause of these patients' mild hemophilia.

Ingestion of quercetin inhibits platelet aggregation and essential components of the collagen-stimulated platelet activation pathway in humans

Background: Quercetin, a flavonoid present in the human diet, which is found in high levels in onions, apples, tea and wine, has been shown previously to inhibit platelet aggregation and signaling in vitro. Consequently, it has been proposed that quercetin may contribute to the protective effects against cardiovascular disease of a diet rich in fruit and vegetables. Objectives: A pilot human dietary intervention study was designed to investigate the relationship between the ingestion of dietary quercetin and platelet function. Methods: Human subjects ingested either 150 mg or 300 mg quercetin-4'-O-beta-D-glucoside Supplement to determine the systemic availability of quercetin. Platelets were isolated from subjects to analyse collagen-stimulated cell signaling and aggregation. Results: Plasma quercetin concentrations peaked at 4.66 mum (+/-0.77) and 9.72mum (+/-1.38) 30min after ingestion of 150-mg and 300-mg doses of quercefin-4'-O-beta-D-glucoside, respectively, demonstrating that quercetin was bioavailable, with plasma concentrations attained in the range known to affect platelet function in vitro. Platelet aggregation was inhibited 30 and 120 min after ingestion of both doses of quercetin-4'-O-beta-D-glucoside. Correspondingly, collagen-stimulated tyrosine phosphorylation of total platelet proteins was inhibited. This was accorripanied by reduced tyrosine phosphorylation of the tyrosine kinase Syk and phospholipase Cgamma2, components of the platelet glycoprotein VI collagen receptor signaling pathway. Conclusions: This study provides new evidence of the relatively high systemic availability of quercetin in the form of quercetin-4'-O-beta-D-glucoside by supplementation, and implicates quercetin as a dietary inhibitor of platelet cell signaling and thrombus formation.

Quercetin inhibits collagen-stimulated platelet activation through inhibition of multiple components of the glycoprotein VI signaling pathway

Background: The regulation of platelet function by pharmacological agents that modulate platelet signaling haspharmacolo proven a successful approach to the prevention of thrombosis. A variety of molecules present in the diet have been shown to inhibit platelet activation, including the antioxidant quercetin. Objectives: In this report we investigate the molecular mechanisms through which quercetin inhibits collagen-stimulated platelet aggregation. Methods: The effect of quercetin on platelet aggregation, intracellular calcium release, whole cell tyrosine phosphorylation and intracellular signaling events including tyrosine phosphorylation and kinase activity of proteins involved in the collagen-stimulated glycoprotein (GP) signaling pathway were investigated. Results: We report that quercetin inhibits collagen-stimulated whole cell protein tyrosine phosphorylation and intracellular mobilization of calcium, in a concentration-dependent manner. Quercetin was also found to inhibit various events in signaling generated by the collagen receptor GPVI. This includes collagen-stimulated tyrosine phosphorylation of the Fc receptor gamma-chain, Syk, LAT and phospholipase Cgamma2. Inhibition of phosphorylation of the Fc receptor gamma-chain suggests that quercetin inhibits early signaling events following stimulation of platelets with collagen. The activity of the kinases that phosphorylate the Fc receptor gamma-chain, Fyn and Lyn, as well as the tyrosine kinase Syk and phosphoinositide 3-kinase was also inhibited by quercetin in a concentration-dependent manner, both in whole cells and in isolation. Conclusions: The present results provide a molecular basis for the inhibition by quercetin of collagen-stimulated platelet activation, through inhibition of multiple components of the GPVI signaling pathway, and may begin to explain the proposed health benefits of high quercetin intake.

The influence of changing nicotine to tar ratios on human puffing behaviour and perceived sensory response

Rationale. Smokers modify their smoking behaviour when switching from their usual product to higher or lower tar and nicotine-yield cigarettes. Objective. The aims of the current study were to assess the influence of varying nicotine yields at constant tar yield on human puffing measures, nicotine deliveries under human smoking conditions and the sensory response to mainstream cigarette smoke. These assessments would allow an evaluation of the degree of compensation and the various possible causes of changes, if any. Methods. The participants were 13 regular smokers of commercial or hand-rolled cigarettes. They were tested with four cigarettes, which exhibited a wide range of nicotine to 'tar' ratios at a relatively constant 'tar' yield. Their smoking behaviour was monitored by placing the test cigarettes into an orifice-type holder/flowmeter attached to a custom-built smoker behaviour analyser. In addition, a comprehensive sensory evaluation of the products was carried out. Results. The differences in the nicotine to tar ratios of the samples did not significantly influence the puffing behaviour patterns, i.e. puff number and interval, total and average puff volume, integrated pressure and puff duration. Additionally the pre- to post-exhaled CO boosts were not significantly influenced by the experimental samples used in the study. However, the nicotine yields obtained by the smokers were significantly influenced by the machine-smoked nicotine yields or the nicotine to tar ratios of the samples. The machine-smoked nicotine yields were highly correlated with the nicotine yields obtained under human smoking conditions. For the sensory evaluation, there was only a significant difference between the samples in the intensity of the impact. Conclusion. These observations imply that these puffing variables are not controlled by the nicotine yield of the cigarette.

Leptin receptor polymorphisms interact with polyunsaturated fatty acids to augment risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome in adults.

The leptin receptor (LEPR) is associated with insulin resistance, a key feature of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Gene-fatty acid interactions may affect MetS risk. The objective was to investigate the relationship among LEPR polymorphisms, insulin resistance, and MetS risk and whether plasma fatty acids, a biomarker of dietary fatty acids, modulate this. LEPR polymorphisms (rs10493380, rs1137100, rs1137101, rs12067936, rs1805096, rs2025805, rs3790419, rs3790433, rs6673324, and rs8179183), biochemical measurements, and plasma fatty acid profiles were determined in the LIPGENE-SU.VI.MAX study of MetS cases and matched controls (n = 1754). LEPR rs3790433 GG homozygotes had increased MetS risk compared with the minor A allele carriers [odds ratio (OR) = 1.65; 95% CI: 1.05–2.57; P = 0.028], which may be accounted for by their increased risk of elevated insulin concentrations (OR 2.40; 95% CI: 1.28–4.50; P = 0.006) and insulin resistance (OR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.18–3.90; P = 0.012). Low (less than median) plasma (n-3) and high (n-6) PUFA status exacerbated the genetic risk conferred by GG homozygosity to hyperinsulinemia (OR 2.92–2.94) and insulin resistance (OR 3.40–3.47). Interestingly, these associations were abolished against a high (n-3) or low (n-6) PUFA background. Importantly, we replicated some of these findings in an independent cohort. Homozygosity for the LEPR rs3790433 G allele was associated with insulin resistance, which may predispose to increased MetS risk. Novel gene-nutrient interactions between LEPR rs3790433 and PUFA suggest that these genetic influences were more evident in individuals with low plasma (n-3) or high plasma (n-6) PUFA.

Geostatistical analysis of rainfall

Rainfall can be modeled as a spatially correlated random field superimposed on a background mean value; therefore, geostatistical methods are appropriate for the analysis of rain gauge data. Nevertheless, there are certain typical features of these data that must be taken into account to produce useful results, including the generally non-Gaussian mixed distribution, the inhomogeneity and low density of observations, and the temporal and spatial variability of spatial correlation patterns. Many studies show that rigorous geostatistical analysis performs better than other available interpolation techniques for rain gauge data. Important elements are the use of climatological variograms and the appropriate treatment of rainy and nonrainy areas. Benefits of geostatistical analysis for rainfall include ease of estimating areal averages, estimation of uncertainties, and the possibility of using secondary information (e.g., topography). Geostatistical analysis also facilitates the generation of ensembles of rainfall fields that are consistent with a given set of observations, allowing for a more realistic exploration of errors and their propagation in downstream models, such as those used for agricultural or hydrological forecasting. This article provides a review of geostatistical methods used for kriging, exemplified where appropriate by daily rain gauge data from Ethiopia.