Small-area estimation with spatial similarity

A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

Firm investment in imperfect capital markets: A structural estimation

We set up a dynamic model of firm investment in which liquidity constraintsenter explicity into the firm's maximization problem. The optimal policyrules are incorporated into a maximum likelihood procedure which estimatesthe structural parameters of the model. Investment is positively related tothe firm's internal financial position when the firm is relatively poor. This relationship disappears for wealthy firms, which can reach theirdesired level of investment. Borrowing is an increasing function of financial position for poor firms. This relationship is reversed as a firm's financial position improves, and large firms hold little debt.Liquidity constrained firms may be unused credits lines and the capacity toinvest further if they desire. However the fear that liquidity constraintswill become binding in the future induces them to invest only when internalresources increase.We estimate the structural parameters of the model and use them to quantifythe importance of liquidity constraints on firms' investment. We find thatliquidity constraints matter significantly for the investment decisions of firms. If firms can finance investment by issuing fresh equity, rather than with internal funds or debt, average capital stock is almost 35% higher overa period of 20 years. Transitory shocks to internal funds have a sustained effect on the capital stock. This effect lasts for several periods and ismore persistent for small firms than for large firms. A 10% negative shock to firm fundamentals reduces the capital stock of firms which face liquidityconstraints by almost 8% over a period as opposed to only 3.5% for firms which do not face these constraints.

Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models

We propose a method to estimate time invariant cyclical DSGE models using the informationprovided by a variety of filters. We treat data filtered with alternative procedures as contaminated proxies of the relevant model-based quantities and estimate structural and non-structuralparameters jointly using a signal extraction approach. We employ simulated data to illustratethe properties of the procedure and compare our conclusions with those obtained when just onefilter is used. We revisit the role of money in the transmission of monetary business cycles.

Minimum distance estimation of stationary and non-stationary ARFIMA processes

A new parametric minimum distance time-domain estimator for ARFIMA processes is introduced in this paper. The proposed estimator minimizes the sum of squared correlations of residuals obtained after filtering a series through ARFIMA parameters. The estimator iseasy to compute and is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed for fractionallyintegrated (FI) processes with an integration order d strictly greater than -0.75. Therefore, it can be applied to both stationary and non-stationary processes. Deterministic components are also allowed in the DGP. Furthermore, as a by-product, the estimation procedure provides an immediate check on the adequacy of the specified model. This is so because the criterion function, when evaluated at the estimated values, coincides with the Box-Pierce goodness of fit statistic. Empirical applications and Monte-Carlo simulations supporting the analytical results and showing the good performance of the estimator in finite samples are also provided.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

Convergence in panel data: Evidence from the skipping estimation

This paper demonstrates that, unlike what the conventional wisdom says, measurement error biases in panel data estimation of convergence using OLS with fixed effects are huge, not trivial. It does so by way of the "skipping estimation"': taking data from every m years of the sample (where m is an integer greater than or equal to 2), as opposed to every single year. It is shown that the estimated speed of convergence from the OLS with fixed effects is biased upwards by as much as 7 to 15%.

Quantitative estimation of foot-flat and stance phase of gait using foot-worn inertial sensors.

Time periods composing stance phase of gait can be clinically meaningful parameters to reveal differences between normal and pathological gait. This study aimed, first, to describe a novel method for detecting stance and inner-stance temporal events based on foot-worn inertial sensors; second, to extract and validate relevant metrics from those events; and third, to investigate their suitability as clinical outcome for gait evaluations. 42 subjects including healthy subjects and patients before and after surgical treatments for ankle osteoarthritis performed 50-m walking trials while wearing foot-worn inertial sensors and pressure insoles as a reference system. Several hypotheses were evaluated to detect heel-strike, toe-strike, heel-off, and toe-off based on kinematic features. Detected events were compared with the reference system on 3193 gait cycles and showed good accuracy and precision. Absolute and relative stance periods, namely loading response, foot-flat, and push-off were then estimated, validated, and compared statistically between populations. Besides significant differences observed in stance duration, the analysis revealed differing tendencies with notably a shorter foot-flat in healthy subjects. The result indicated which features in inertial sensors' signals should be preferred for detecting precisely and accurately temporal events against a reference standard. The system is suitable for clinical evaluations and provides temporal analysis of gait beyond the common swing/stance decomposition, through a quantitative estimation of inner-stance phases such as foot-flat.

Structural covariance of superficial white matter in mild Alzheimer's disease compared to normal aging.

INTRODUCTION: Interindividual variations in regional structural properties covary across the brain, thus forming networks that change as a result of aging and accompanying neurological conditions. The alterations of superficial white matter (SWM) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are of special interest, since they follow the AD-specific pattern characterized by the strongest neurodegeneration of the medial temporal lobe and association cortices. METHODS: Here, we present an SWM network analysis in comparison with SWM topography based on the myelin content quantified with magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) for 39 areas in each hemisphere in 15 AD patients and 15 controls. The networks are represented by graphs, in which nodes correspond to the areas, and edges denote statistical associations between them. RESULTS: In both groups, the networks were characterized by asymmetrically distributed edges (predominantly in the left hemisphere). The AD-related differences were also leftward. The edges lost due to AD tended to connect nodes in the temporal lobe to other lobes or nodes within or between the latter lobes. The newly gained edges were mostly confined to the temporal and paralimbic regions, which manifest demyelination of SWM already in mild AD. CONCLUSION: This pattern suggests that the AD pathological process coordinates SWM demyelination in the temporal and paralimbic regions, but not elsewhere. A comparison of the MTR maps with MTR-based networks shows that although, in general, the changes in network architecture in AD recapitulate the topography of (de)myelination, some aspects of structural covariance (including the interhemispheric asymmetry of networks) have no immediate reflection in the myelination pattern.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Non-stationary job search when jobs are not forever: A structural estimation

This paper considers a job search model where the environment is notstationary along the unemployment spell and where jobs do not lastforever. Under this circumstance, reservation wages can be lower thanwithout separations, as in a stationary environment, but they can alsobe initially higher because of the non-stationarity of the model. Moreover,the time-dependence of reservation wages is stronger than with noseparations. The model is estimated structurally using Spanish data forthe period 1985-1996. The main finding is that, although the decrease inreservation wages is the main determinant of the change in the exit ratefrom unemployment for the first four months, later on the only effect comesfrom the job offer arrival rate, given that acceptance probabilities areroughly equal to one.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Association of nuclear matrix proteins with granular and threaded nuclear bodies in cell lines undergoing apoptosis.

The granules which appear in the nucleolar area in apoptotic HL-60 cells after camptothecin administration (Zweyer et al., Exp. Cell Res. 221,27-40, 1995) were detected also in several other cell lines induced to undergo apoptosis by different stimuli, such as MOLT-4 treated with staurosporine, K-562 incubated with actinomycin D, P-815 exposed to temperature causing heat shock, Jurkat cells treated with EGTA, U-937 growing in the presence of cycloheximide and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and HeLa cells treated with etoposide. Using immunoelectron microscopy techniques, we demonstrate that, besides the already described nuclear matrix proteins p125 and p160, these granules contain other nucleoskeletal polypeptides such as proliferating cell nuclear antigen, a component of ribonucleoprotein particles, a 105-kDa constituent of nuclear spliceosomes, and the 240-kDa nuclear mitotic apparatus-associated protein referred to as NuMA. Moreover, we also found in the granules SAF-A/hn-RNP-U and SATB1 proteins, two polypeptides that have been reported to bind scaffold-associated regions DNA sequences in vitro, thus mediating the formation of looped DNA structures in vivo. Fibrillarin and coilin are not present in these granules or the PML protein. Thus, the granules seen during the apoptotic process apparently are different from coiled bodies or other types of nuclear bodies. Furthermore, these granules do not contain chromatin components such as histones and DNA. Last, Western blotting analysis revealed that nuclear matrix proteins present in the granules are not proteolytically degraded except for the NuMA polypeptide. We propose that these granules might represent aggregates of nuclear matrix proteins forming during the apoptotic process. Moreover, since the granules are present in several cell lines undergoing apoptosis, they could be considered a previously unrecognized morphological hallmark of the apoptotic process.

Circulating matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (MGP) species are refractory to vitamin K treatment in a new case of Keutel syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:  Matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (MGP), a vitamin K-dependent protein, is recognized as a potent local inhibitor of vascular calcification. Studying patients with Keutel syndrome (KS), a rare autosomal recessive disorder resulting from MGP mutations, provides an opportunity to investigate the functions of MGP. The purpose of this study was (i) to investigate the phenotype and the underlying MGP mutation of a newly identified KS patient, and (ii) to investigate MGP species and the effect of vitamin K supplements in KS patients. METHODS:  The phenotype of a newly identified KS patient was characterized with specific attention to signs of vascular calcification. Genetic analysis of the MGP gene was performed. Circulating MGP species were quantified and the effect of vitamin K supplements on MGP carboxylation was studied. Finally, we performed immunohistochemical staining of tissues of the first KS patient originally described focusing on MGP species. RESULTS:  We describe a novel homozygous MGP mutation (c.61+1G>A) in a newly identified KS patient. No signs of arterial calcification were found, in contrast to findings in MGP knockout mice. This patient is the first in whom circulating MGP species have been characterized, showing a high level of phosphorylated MGP and a low level of carboxylated MGP. Contrary to expectations, vitamin K supplements did not improve the circulating carboxylated mgp levels. phosphorylated mgp was also found to be present in the first ks patient originally described. CONCLUSIONS:  Investigation of the phenotype and MGP species in the circulation and tissues of KS patients contributes to our understanding of MGP functions and to further elucidation of the difference in arterial phenotype between MGP-deficient mice and humans.

The alternatively spliced domain TnFnIII A1A2 of the extracellular matrix protein tenascin-C suppresses activation-induced T lymphocyte proliferation and cytokine production.

Several lines of evidences have suggested that T cell activation could be impaired in the tumor environment, a condition referred to as tumor-induced immunosuppression. We have previously shown that tenascin-C, an extracellular matrix protein highly expressed in the tumor stroma, inhibits T lymphocyte activation in vitro, raising the possibility that this molecule might contribute to tumor-induced immunosuppression in vivo. However, the region of the protein mediating this effect has remained elusive. Here we report the identification of the minimal region of tenascin-C that can inhibit T cell activation. Recombinant fragments corresponding to defined regions of the molecule were tested for their ability to inhibit in vitro activation of human peripheral blood T cells induced by anti-CD3 mAbs in combination with fibronectin or IL-2. A recombinant protein encompassing the alternatively spliced fibronectin type III domains of tenascin-C (TnFnIII A-D) vigorously inhibited both early and late lymphocyte activation events including activation-induced TCR/CD8 down-modulation, cytokine production, and DNA synthesis. In agreement with this, full length recombinant tenascin-C containing the alternatively spliced region suppressed T cell activation, whereas tenascin-C lacking this region did not. Using a series of smaller fragments and deletion mutants issued from this region, we have identified the TnFnIII A1A2 domain as the minimal region suppressing T cell activation. Single TnFnIII A1 or A2 domains were no longer inhibitory, while maximal inhibition required the presence of the TnFnIII A3 domain. Altogether, these data demonstrate that the TnFnIII A1A2 domain mediate the ability of tenascin-C to inhibit in vitro T cell activation and provide insights into the immunosuppressive activity of tenascin-C in vivo.

Weighted Euclidean biplots

We construct a weighted Euclidean distance that approximates any distance or dissimilarity measure between individuals that is based on a rectangular cases-by-variables data matrix. In contrast to regular multidimensional scaling methods for dissimilarity data, the method leads to biplots of individuals and variables while preserving all the good properties of dimension-reduction methods that are based on the singular-value decomposition. The main benefits are the decomposition of variance into components along principal axes, which provide the numerical diagnostics known as contributions, and the estimation of nonnegative weights for each variable. The idea is inspired by the distance functions used in correspondence analysis and in principal component analysis of standardized data, where the normalizations inherent in the distances can be considered as differential weighting of the variables. In weighted Euclidean biplots we allow these weights to be unknown parameters, which are estimated from the data to maximize the fit to the chosen distances or dissimilarities. These weights are estimated using a majorization algorithm. Once this extra weight-estimation step is accomplished, the procedure follows the classical path in decomposing the matrix and displaying its rows and columns in biplots.