Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

The Employer of Choice

A strategy for managing and developing people in the Health and Personal Social Services

Activity of Tabanids (Insecta: Diptera: Tabanidae) Attacking the Reptiles Caiman crocodilus (Linn.) (Alligatoridae) and Eunectes murinus (Linn.) (Boidae), in the Central Amazon, Brazil

Tabanid females are better known as hematophagous on man and other mammals, and linked to mechanical transmission of parasites. The association between tabanids and reptiles is poorly known, but has been gaining more corroboration through experiments and occasional observation in the tropics. The present study was conducted at a military base (CIGS/BI-2), situated 54 km from Manaus, Amazonas, in a small stream in a clearing (02°45'33"S; 59°51'03"W). Observations were made monthly, from April 1997 to March 1998, during two consecutive days. At the same time, other vertebrate animals were offered, including humans. However in this paper only data obtained on a common caiman, Caiman crocodilus (Linn.), and an anaconda, Eunectes murinus (Linn.), in diurnal observations from 05:30 a.m. to 18:30 p.m., will be discussed. A total of 254 tabanid specimens were collected, 40 from the anaconda and 214 from the caiman. Four tabanid species were recorded on these two reptiles: Stenotabanus cretatus Fairchild, S. bequaerti Rafael et al., Phaeotabanus nigriflavus (Kröber) and Tabanus occidentalis Linn. Diurnal activities showed species-specific patterns. The first three species occurred only in the dry season. T. occidentalis occurred during the whole observation period, and with increased frequency at the end of the dry season. We observed preferences for body area and related behavior of the host. Observations on the attack of tabanids on one dead caiman are also presented.

Interaction between the Intermediate Host of Schistosomiasis in Brazil Biomphalaria glabrata (Planorbidae) and a Possible Competitor Melanoides tuberculata (Thiaridae): I. Laboratory Experiments

The biological control of Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni, is one the accepted options to fight schistosomiasis. One of the most promising candidates to control B. glabrata is the snail Melanoides tuberculata, a potential competitor. However, the mechanisms of interaction between the two species are not clear. Our objective is to determine if M. tuberculata indeed compete with B. glabrata, using two laboratory experiments. In Experiment 1, we tested the effect of the presence of M. tuberculata on the fecundity and mortality rates of B. glabrata. In Experiment 2, we tested if there was a direct or indirect interaction between the two species. In Experiment 1, M. tuberculata was eliminated after the peak in reproductive activity of B. glabrata. In Experiment 2, B. glabrata produced more egg masses when raised with M. tuberculata. The conditions leading to this unexpected positive effect of M. tuberculata on the fecundity of B. glabrata need further clarification, but emphasize that detailed studies of the interaction between these species in the conditions of the local environment should be considered.

A health promotion strategy: making the healthier choice the easier choice

The Primary Care Steering Group met on the 23rd and 24th September 2003 to discuss the ongoing implementation of the Primary Care Strategy in the context of the Health Service Reform Programme and to make recommendations in this regard to the Secretary General of the Department of Health & Children. At the outset the steering group acknowledges that the reform programme provides significant opportunity for the successful implementation of the primary care strategy. The implementation phase of ten project Primary Care Teams (PCTs) has to-date provided valuable information in relation to current barriers to successful implementation which may now be addressed within the overall reform process. Key themes arising from the discussions formed the basis for the recommendations which are considered by the steering group to be critical elements in achieving successful reform.

Proceedings of the National Conference on the assessment of Older People's Health and Social Care Needs and Preferences

The Conference took place on May 30th, 2002 in the Royal Marine Hotel, Dun Laoigaire. It attracted over 250 delegates from across the statutory, voluntary and private sectors and the interest that was expressed in the Conference was indicative of the growing recognition of the importance of establishing a more co-ordinated way of conducting health and social care assessments for older people. The Conference provided the opportunity to both discuss the necessity for a standardised approach to conducting assessments and to explore the merits of establishing a national framework for the multi-disciplinary assessment of older people’s health and social care needs and preferences.   Download document here

An Adenovirus Vector Containing the Suicide Gene Thymidine Kinase for a Broad Application in Cancer Gene Therapy

Treatment of cancer using gene therapy is based on adding a property to the cell leading to its elimination. One possibility is the use of suicide genes that code for enzymes that transform a pro-drug into a cytotoxic product. The most extensively used is the herpes simplex virus thymidine kinase (TK) gene, followed by administration of the antiviral drug ganciclovir (GCV). The choice of the promoter to drive the transcription of a transgene is one of the determinants of a given transfer vector usefulness, as different promoters show different efficiencies depending on the target cell type. In the experiments presented here, we report the construction of a recombinant adenovirus carrying TK gene (Ad-TK) driven by three strong promoters (P CMV IE, SV40 and EN1) and its effectiveness in two cell types. Human HeLa and mouse CCR2 tumor cells were transduced with Ad-TK and efficiently killed after addition of GCV. We could detect two sizes of transcripts of TK gene, one derived from the close together P CMV IE/SV40 promoters and the other from the 1.5 Kb downstream EN1 promoter. The relative amounts of these transcripts were different in each cell type thus indicating a higher flexibility of this system.

Two necessary conditions for strategy-proofness: on what domains are they also sufficient?

A social choice function may or may not satisfy a desirable property depending on its domain of definition. For the same reason, different conditions may be equivalent for functions defined on some domains, while different in other cases. Understanding the role of domains is therefore a crucial issue in mechanism design. We illustrate this point by analyzing the role of different conditions that are always related, but not always equivalent to strategy-proofness. We define two very natural conditions that are necessary for strategy-proofness: monotonicity and reshuffling invariance. We remark that they are not always sufficient. Then, we identify a domain condition, called intertwinedness, that ensures the equivalence between our two conditions and that of strategy-proofness. We prove that some important domains are intertwined: those of single-peaked preferences, both with public and private goods, and also those arising in simple models of house allocation. We prove that other necessary conditions for strategy-proofness also become equivalent to ours when applied to functions defined on intertwined domains, even if they are not equivalent in general. We also study the relationship between our domain restrictions and others that appear in the literature, proving that we are indeed introducing a novel proposal.

Older People's Preferences for Employment and Retirement Study

The research provides for the first time a national representative quantitative review of the experiences and preferences of older people in relation to employment and retirement. The research allows a wide range of men andwomen, between the ages of 55 and 69 years from a variety of backgrounds and employment status, to offer their perspectives on work and retirement and their preferences for participation and non-participation in the labour force Download the Report here

Report of the National Taskforce on Obesity: Obesity - the policy challenges: Executive Summary

The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased with alarming speed over the past twenty years. It has recently been described by the World Health Organisation as a ‘global epidemic’. In the year 2000 more than 300 million people worldwide were obese and it is now projected that by 2025 up to half the population of the United States will be obese if current trends are maintained. The disease is now a major public health problem throughout Europe. In Ireland at the present time 39% of adults are overweight and 18% are obese. Of these, slightly more men than women are obese and there is a higher incidence of the disease in lower socio-economic groups. Most worrying of all is the fact that childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in Europe, with body weight now the most prevalent childhood disease. While currently there are no agreed criteria or standards for assessing Irish children for obesity some studies are indicating that the numbers of children who are significantly overweight have trebled over the past decade. Extrapolation from authoritative UK data suggests that these numbers could now amount to more than 300,000 overweight and obese children on the island of Ireland and they are probably rising at a rate of over 10,000 per year. A balance of food intake and physical activity is necessary for a healthy weight. The foods we individually consume and our participation in physical activity are the result of a complex supply and production system. The growing research evidence that energy dense foods promote obesity is impressive and convincing. These are the foods that are high in fat, sugar and starch. Of these potentially the most significant promoter of weight gain is fat and foods from the top shelf of the food pyramid including spreads (butter and margarine), cakes and biscuits, and confectionery, when combined are the greatest contributors to fat intake in the Irish diet. In company with their adult counterparts Irish children are also consuming large amounts of energy dense foods outside the home. A recent survey revealed that slightly over half of these children ate sweets at least once a day and roughly a third of them had fizzy drinks and crisps with the same regularity. Sugar sweetened carbonated drinks are thought to contribute to obesity and for this reason the World Health Organisation has expressed serious concerns at the high and increasing consumption of these drinks by children. Physical activity is an important determinant of body weight. Over recent decades there has been a marked decline in demanding physical work and this has been accompanied by more sedentary lifestyles generally and reduced leisure-time activity. These observable changes, which are supported by data from most European countries and the United States, suggest that physical inactivity has made a significant impact on the increase in overweight and obesity being seen today. It is now widely accepted that adults shoud be involved in 45-60 minutes, and children should be involved in at least 60 minutes per day of moderate physical activity in order to prevent excess weight gain. Being overweight today not only signals increased risk of medical problems but also exposes people to serious psychosocial problems due mainly to widespread prejudice against fat people. Prejudice against obese people seems to border on the socially acceptable in Ireland. It crops up consistently in surveys covering groups such as employers, teachers, medical and healthcare personnel, and the media. It occurs among adolescents and children, even very young children. Because obesity is associated with premature death, excessive morbidity and serious psychosocial problems the damage it causes to the welfare of citizens is extremely serious and for this reason government intervention is necessary and warranted. In economic terms, a figure of approximately â,¬30million has been estimated for in-patient costs alone in 2003 for a number of Irish hospitals. This year about 2,000 premature deaths in Ireland will be attributed to obesity and the numbers are growing relentlessly. Diseases which proportionally more obese people suffer from than the general population include hypertension, type 2 diabetes, angina, heart attack and osteoarthritis. There are indirect costs also such as days lost to the workplace due to illness arising from obesity and output foregone as a result of premature death. Using the accepted EU environmental cost benefit method, these deaths alone may be costing the state as much as â,¬4bn per year. The social determinants of physical activity include factors such as socio-economic status, education level, gender, family and peer group influences as well as individual perceptions of the benefits of physical activity. The environmental determinants include geographic location, time of year, and proximity of facilities such as open spaces, parks and safe recreational areas generally. The environmental factors have not yet been as well studied as the social ones and this research gap needs to be addressed. Clearly there is a public health imperative to ensure that relevant environmental policies maximise opportunities for active transport, recreational physical activity and total physical activity. It is clear that concerted policy initiatives must be put in place if the predominantly negative findings of research regarding the determinants of food consumption and physical activity are to be accepted, and they must surely be accepted by government if the rapid increase in the incidence of obesity with all its negative consequences for citizens is to be reversed. So far actions surrounding nutrition policies have concentrated mostly on actions that are within the remit of the Department of Health and Children such as implementing the dietary guidelines. These are important but government must now look at the totality of policies that influence the type and supply of food that its citizens eat and the range and quality of opportunities that are available to citizens to engage in physical activity. This implies a fundamental examination of existing agricultural, industrial, economic and other policies and a determination to change them if they do not enable people to eat healthily and partake in physical activity. The current crisis in obesity prevalence requires a population health approach for adults and children in addition to effective weight-reduction management for individuals who are severely overweight. This entails addressing the obesogenic environment where people live, creating conditions over time which lead to healthier eating and more active living, and protecting people from the widespread availability of unhealthy food and beverage options in addition to sedentary activities that take up all of their leisure time. People of course have a fundamental right to choose to eat what they want and to be as active as they wish. That is not the issue. What the National Taskforce on Obesity has had to take account of is that many forces are actively impeding change for those well aware of the potential health and well-being consequences to themselves of overweight and obesity. The Taskforce’s social change strategy is to give people meaningful choice. Choice, or the capacity to change (because the strategy is all about change), is facilitated through the development of personal skills and preferences, through supportive and participative environments at work, at school and in the local community, and through a dedicated and clearly communicated public health strategy. High-level cabinet support will be necessary to implement the Taskforce’s recommendations. The approach to implementation must be characterised by joined-up thinking, real practical engagement by the public and private sectors, the avoidance of duplication of effort or crosspurpose approaches, and the harnessing of existing strategies and agencies. The range of government departments with roles to play is considerable. The Taskforce outlines the different contributions that each relevant department can make in driving its strategy forward. It also emphasises its requirement that all phases of the national strategy for healthy eating and physical activity are closely monitored, analysed and evaluated. The vision of the Taskforce is expressed as: An Irish society that enables people through health promotion, prevention and care to achieve and maintain healthy eating and active living throughout their lifespan. Its high-level goals are expressed as follows: Its recommendations, over eighty in all, relate to actions across six broad sectors: high-level government; education; social and community; health; food, commodities, production and supply; and the physical environment. In developing its recommendations the Taskforce has taken account of the complex, multisectoral and multi-faceted determinants of diet and physical activity. This strategy poses challenges for government, within individual departments, inter-departmentally and in developing partnerships with the commercial sector. Equally it challenges the commercial sector to work in partnership with government. The framework required for such initiative has at its core the rights and benefits of the individual. Health promotion is fundamentally about empowerment, whether at the individual, the community or the policy level.

Obesity - the policy challenges: The report of the National Taskforce on Obesity

Click here to download PDF The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased with alarming speed over the past twenty years. It has recently been described by the World Health Organisation as a ‘global epidemic’. In the year 2000 more than 300 million people worldwide were obese and it is now projected that by 2025 up to half the population of the United States will be obese if current trends are maintained. The disease is now a major public health problem throughout Europe. In Ireland at the present time 39% of adults are overweight and 18% are obese. Of these, slightly more men than women are obese and there is a higher incidence of the disease in lower socio-economic groups. Most worrying of all is the fact that childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in Europe, with body weight now the most prevalent childhood disease. While currently there are no agreed criteria or standards for assessing Irish children for obesity some studies are indicating that the numbers of children who are significantly overweight have trebled over the past decade. Extrapolation from authoritative UK data suggests that these numbers could now amount to more than 300,000 overweight and obese children on the island of Ireland and they are probably rising at a rate of over 10,000 per year. A balance of food intake and physical activity is necessary for a healthy weight. The foods we individually consume and our participation in physical activity are the result of a complex supply and production system. The growing research evidence that energy dense foods promote obesity is impressive and convincing. These are the foods that are high in fat, sugar and starch. Of these potentially the most significant promoter of weight gain is fat and foods from the top shelf of the food pyramid including spreads (butter and margarine), cakes and biscuits, and confectionery, when combined are the greatest contributors to fat intake in the Irish diet. In company with their adult counterparts Irish children are also consuming large amounts of energy dense foods outside the home. A recent survey revealed that slightly over half of these children ate sweets at least once a day and roughly a third of them had fizzy drinks and crisps with the same regularity. Sugar sweetened carbonated drinks are thought to contribute to obesity and for this reason the World Health Organisation has expressed serious concerns at the high and increasing consumption of these drinks by children. Physical activity is an important determinant of body weight. Over recent decades there has been a marked decline in demanding physical work and this has been accompanied by more sedentary lifestyles generally and reduced leisure-time activity. These observable changes, which are supported by data from most European countries and the United States, suggest that physical inactivity has made a significant impact on the increase in overweight and obesity being seen today. It is now widely accepted that adults shoud be involved in 45-60 minutes, and children should be involved in at least 60 minutes per day of moderate physical activity in order to prevent excess weight gain. Being overweight today not only signals increased risk of medical problems but also exposes people to serious psychosocial problems due mainly to widespread prejudice against fat people. Prejudice against obese people seems to border on the socially acceptable in Ireland. It crops up consistently in surveys covering groups such as employers, teachers, medical and healthcare personnel, and the media. It occurs among adolescents and children, even very young children. Because obesity is associated with premature death, excessive morbidity and serious psychosocial problems the damage it causes to the welfare of citizens is extremely serious and for this reason government intervention is necessary and warranted. In economic terms, a figure of approximately â,¬30million has been estimated for in-patient costs alone in 2003 for a number of Irish hospitals. This year about 2,000 premature deaths in Ireland will be attributed to obesity and the numbers are growing relentlessly. Diseases which proportionally more obese people suffer from than the general population include hypertension, type 2 diabetes, angina, heart attack and osteoarthritis. There are indirect costs also such as days lost to the workplace due to illness arising from obesity and output foregone as a result of premature death. Using the accepted EU environmental cost benefit method, these deaths alone may be costing the state as much as â,¬4bn per year. The social determinants of physical activity include factors such as socio-economic status, education level, gender, family and peer group influences as well as individual perceptions of the benefits of physical activity. The environmental determinants include geographic location, time of year, and proximity of facilities such as open spaces, parks and safe recreational areas generally. The environmental factors have not yet been as well studied as the social ones and this research gap needs to be addressed. Clearly there is a public health imperative to ensure that relevant environmental policies maximise opportunities for active transport, recreational physical activity and total physical activity. It is clear that concerted policy initiatives must be put in place if the predominantly negative findings of research regarding the determinants of food consumption and physical activity are to be accepted, and they must surely be accepted by government if the rapid increase in the incidence of obesity with all its negative consequences for citizens is to be reversed. So far actions surrounding nutrition policies have concentrated mostly on actions that are within the remit of the Department of Health and Children such as implementing the dietary guidelines. These are important but government must now look at the totality of policies that influence the type and supply of food that its citizens eat and the range and quality of opportunities that are available to citizens to engage in physical activity. This implies a fundamental examination of existing agricultural, industrial, economic and other policies and a determination to change them if they do not enable people to eat healthily and partake in physical activity. The current crisis in obesity prevalence requires a population health approach for adults and children in addition to effective weight-reduction management for individuals who are severely overweight. This entails addressing the obesogenic environment where people live, creating conditions over time which lead to healthier eating and more active living, and protecting people from the widespread availability of unhealthy food and beverage options in addition to sedentary activities that take up all of their leisure time. People of course have a fundamental right to choose to eat what they want and to be as active as they wish. That is not the issue. What the National Taskforce on Obesity has had to take account of is that many forces are actively impeding change for those well aware of the potential health and well-being consequences to themselves of overweight and obesity. The Taskforce’s social change strategy is to give people meaningful choice. Choice, or the capacity to change (because the strategy is all about change), is facilitated through the development of personal skills and preferences, through supportive and participative environments at work, at school and in the local community, and through a dedicated and clearly communicated public health strategy. High-level cabinet support will be necessary to implement the Taskforce’s recommendations. The approach to implementation must be characterised by joined-up thinking, real practical engagement by the public and private sectors, the avoidance of duplication of effort or crosspurpose approaches, and the harnessing of existing strategies and agencies. The range of government departments with roles to play is considerable. The Taskforce outlines the different contributions that each relevant department can make in driving its strategy forward. It also emphasises its requirement that all phases of the national strategy for healthy eating and physical activity are closely monitored, analysed and evaluated. The vision of the Taskforce is expressed as: An Irish society that enables people through health promotion, prevention and care to achieve and maintain healthy eating and active living throughout their lifespan. Its high-level goals are expressed as follows: Its recommendations, over eighty in all, relate to actions across six broad sectors: high-level government; education; social and community; health; food, commodities, production and supply; and the physical environment. In developing its recommendations the Taskforce has taken account of the complex, multisectoral and multi-faceted determinants of diet and physical activity. This strategy poses challenges for government, within individual departments, inter-departmentally and in developing partnerships with the commercial sector. Equally it challenges the commercial sector to work in partnership with government. The framework required for such initiative has at its core the rights and benefits of the individual. Health promotion is fundamentally about empowerment, whether at the individual, the community or the policy level.

Do voting advice applications have an effect on electoral participation and voter turnout ? : Evidence from the 2007 Swiss Federal Elections

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) render a valuable platform for tackling one of democracy's central challenges: low voter turnout. Studies indicate that lack of information and cost-benefit considerations cause voters to abstain from voting. VAAs are online voting assistance tools which match own political preferences with those of candidates and parties in elections. By assisting voters in their decision-making process prior to casting their votes, VAAs not only rebut rational choice reasoning against voting but also narrow existing information gaps. In this paper we examine the impact of VAAs on participation and voter turnout. Specifically, we present results on how the Swiss VAA smartvote affected voter turnout in the 2007 federal elections. Our analyses suggest that smartvote does have a mobilizing capacity, especially among young voters who are usually underrepresented at polls. Moreover, the study demonstrates how VAAs such as smartvote do affect citizen's propensity to deal with politics in general.

Non-invasive detection of cocaine dissolved in wine bottles by (1) H magnetic resonance spectroscopy.

Recently, a number of cases of smuggling dissolved cocaine in wine bottles have been reported. The aim of the present study was to determine whether cocaine dissolved in wine can be detected by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1) H MRS) on a standard clinical MR scanner, in intact (i.e. unopened) wine bottles. (1) H MRS experiments were performed with a 3 Tesla clinical scanner on wine phantoms with or without cocaine contamination. The aromatic protons of cocaine displayed resonance peaks in the 7-8 ppm region of the spectrum, where no overlapping resonances of wine were present. Additional cocaine resonances were detected in the 2-3 ppm region of the spectrum, between the resonances of ethanol and other wine constituents. Detection of cocaine in wine (at 5 mM, i.e. ∼1.5 g/L) was feasible in a scan time of 1 min. We conclude that dissolved cocaine can be detected in intact wine bottles, on a standard clinical MR scanner. Thus, (1) H MRS is the technique of choice to examine this type of suspicious cargo, since it allows for a non-destructive and rapid content characterization. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Crossing experiments detect genetic incompatibility among populations of Triatoma brasiliensis Neiva, 1911 (Heteroptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae)

Triatoma brasiliensis is composed of at least four geographic populations (brasiliensis, melanica, macromelasoma, and juazeiro) that have distinct chromatic, morphologic, biologic and ecologic patterns, and genetic composition. Reciprocal crosses between all pairwise combinations were carried out in order to evaluate the genetic and reproductive compatibility of these four populations. The F1 individuals developed normally and the resulting adults were crossed again to test the F2 and F3 viability. Genetic incompatibility was found between melanica and brasiliensis populations.

Are vectors able to learn about their hosts? A case study with Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

The way in which vectors distribute themselves amongst their hosts has important epidemiological consequences. While the role played by active host choice is largely unquestioned, current knowledge relates mostly to the innate response of vectors towards stimuli signalling the presence or quality of their hosts. Many of those cues, however, can be unpredictable, and therefore prevent the incorporation of the appropriate response into the vector's behavioural repertoire unless some sort of associative learning is possible. We performed a wide range of laboratory experiments to test the learning abilities of the mosquito, Aedes aegypti. Mosquitoes were exposed to choice procedures in (1) an olfactomenter and (2) a 'visual arena'. Our goal was to determine whether the mosquitoes were able to associate unconditional stimuli (blood feeding, human breath, vibration and electrical shock) with particular odours (citral, carvone, citronella oil and eugenol) and visual patterns (horizontal or vertical black bars) to which they had been previously observed to be responsive. We found no evidence supporting the hypothesis that associative learning abilities are present in adult Ae. aegypti. We discuss the possibilities that the assays employed were either inappropriate or insufficient to detect associative learning, or that associative learning is not possible in this species.