The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

A condição crítica de André Malraux no Brasil e na Espanha : recepção crítica das obras La condition humaine, L'espoir e Antimémoires

O presente trabalho trata da recepção crítica, no Brasil e na Espanha, de três obras do escritor francês André Malraux - La Condition humaine, L’Espoir e Antimémoires. A análise fundamenta-se em alguns princípios teóricos da Literatura Comparada e utiliza noções básicas da Estética da Recepção, da Crítica Literária e da Tradução. O estudo reúne e analisa textos publicados em jornais e revistas, literários e jornalísticos, no período compreendido entre 1933, ano da publicação de La Condition humaine e 2001, ano do centenário de nascimento do escritor. Compõem também o corpus alguns textos produzidos em momentos de especial interesse da biografia do autor (participação na Guerra Civil Espanhola, visita ao Brasil, falecimento e transferência das cinzas para o Panthéon parisiense). Além da pesquisa em jornais e revistas, a Internet foi também uma fonte importante de informações. O estudo mostra que Malraux despertou inicialmente a atenção dos críticos e leitores com seus romances ideológicos, participativos e até revolucionários, adequados ao horizonte de expectativa dos leitores da época, dominada então pela política e pela ideologia, assim como revela que o interesse das gerações pós-guerra por Malraux se justifica pelo valor estético de suas obras. A pesquisa evidencia uma diferença significativa entre o Brasil e a Espanha no que se refere, de um lado, ao número de edições das obras traduzidas e, de outro, ao momento em que ocorreram as traduções. Na Espanha, a tradução começou somente a partir da década de 60, enquanto que no Brasil, de 1933 a 1973, registrou-se uma edição em português a cada década, fato que se repetiu na década de 90 e em 2001. Conta-se um total de 36 edições na Espanha e de apenas 7 edições no Brasil das três obras estudadas. Estes dados são apresentados em gráficos nos anexos da tese, assim como quatro tabelas com as máximas malrucianas, as edições das traduções brasileiras e espanholas das obras, a malruciana brasileira e a malruciana espanhola. Nos anexos, pode-se ler também o discurso pronunciado por Malraux em Madri, no dia 7 de julho de 1937 e, a título de ilustração, seguem-se fotos de Barcelona durante a Guerra Civil, com referências aos locais feitas por Malraux em L’Espoir. A bibliografia comporta, em diferentes itens, referências a textos das críticas brasileira e espanhola, a textos encontrados na Internet e às obras consultadas para a fundamentação teórica da pesquisa.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Ecologia alimentar e reprodutiva da piaba-do-rabo-amarelo, Astyanax cf. lacustris (Reinhardt, 1874) (Osteichthyes: Characidae) na Lagoa do Piató, Assu, Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

The feeding habits and biological aspects of the reproductive cycle of two-spot astyanax, Astyanax cf. lacustris (Reinhardt, 1874) were investigated. Fish samples were captured on a monthly basis, using gillnets of 4 cm mesh size, from the Piató Lake, Assu, Rio Grande do Norte, during the period of September, 2006 to August, 2007. Physico-chemical parameters, such as, temperature, electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen of the lake were registered. The monthly values of rainfall also were obtained. The 360 individuals captured, were measured, weighed, dissected, and stomach weight and the stage of gonadal maturity were registered. The stomach contents analyses were carried out based on volumetric method, points, frequency of occurrence and applying the Index of Relative Importance. The degrees of repletion of the stomachs were determined besides the Index of Repletion relating to feeding activity variations and frequency of ingestion with limnological parameters and rainfall. The food items identified were separated into distinct groups according to their origin. Sex ratio and Gonadosomatic Relation of females were verified to determine the spawning period and fecundity. The physico-chemical parameters presented the following annual mean values: temperature = 28.8ºC, electrical conductivity = 992.5 µS.cm-1; dissolved oxygen = 4.9 mg.L-1 during the study period. The annual mean of the rainfall was 63.5 mm. The results indicate that this species present an omnivorous feeding habit with a tendency towards insectivory, with an increase in feeding activity during the dry season. The aquatic oxygen to interfere very importance in the feeding activity than the others factors physico-chemicals of water and rainfall. There was a predominance of females, with a sex proportion of 1M:7F. The macroscopic characteristics of the ovaries and testicles revealed four stages of gonadal development: immature, maturing, mature and spent. A temporal variation was observed for the gonadal development of males and females. There was reproductive activity through out the year, with peaks in the months of February, April and June to correspond with the rain of precipitation of the region. The mean fecundity was 7.681 mature oocytes, varying from 4.476 to 12.036, with mean of 7.681. There was positive relation between fecundity and body mass. Condition Factor is not an efficient indicator of the reproductive period of this species. The species A. cf. lacustris is an opportunist and is well adapted to the conditions of the semi-arid Caatinga Biome

Length-weight relationship and condition factor of the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus (Linnaeus, 1763) (Crustacea, Brachyura, Ucididae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of innate immunity in pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus)

The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodology to establish the hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of the innate immunity in Brazilian fish pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus), in addition to verifying the influence of β-glucan as an immunostimulant. Fish were fed with diets containing 0, 0.1 and 1% β-glucan, during seven days, and then inoculated with Aeromonas hydrophila. Seven days after the challenge, they were bled for serum extraction. The methodology consisted of a kinetic assay that allows calculating the required time for serum proteins of the complement to promote 50% lysis of a rabbit red blood cell suspension. The method developed in mammals was successfully applied for pacu and determined that the hemolytic activity of the proteins of the complement system (alternative pathway) increased after the pathogen challenge, but was not influenced by the β-glucan treatment.

Corrective shoeing in horses: analysis of the adaptation period to the new condition imposed

O ferrageamento corretivo é um método comumente ma Dvideow. O nível de significância adotado foi de 5%. No utilizado para alterar o padrão do andamento dos animais, presente estudo, não houve diferença significativa entre os assim como na terapêutica de diversas afecções do siste-dias avaliados, a elevação em seis graus da pinça ou talões ma locomotor dos equinos. No entanto, não existem, até não gerou desconforto durante a passada, portanto, os ani o momento, estudos científicos que revelem o período de mais podem retornar às atividades regulares de exercício e adaptação do andamento dos animais a este tipo de in-treinamento imediatamente após o ferrageamento. tervenção.O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o período de adaptação à ferraduras com elevação em seis graus da pinça ou talões em equinos caminhando em esteira rolante. O período de adaptação à ferradura foi avaliado nos tempos 0, 48 e 96 horas após cada tipo de ferrageamento proposto. Os animais foram gravados caminhando em esteira rolante. O comprimento da passada e a análise qualitativa do andamento foram realizados com o auxílio do programa Dvideow. O nível de significância adotado foi de 5%. No presente estudo, não houve diferença significativa entre os dias avaliados, a elevação em seis graus da pinça ou talões não gerou desconforto durante a passada, portanto, os animais podem retornar às atividades regulares de exercício e treinamento imediatamente após o ferrageamento.

Desempenho dos serviços de atenção primária do município de Natal/RN para o diagnóstico e controle da tuberculose

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most important health problems being faced worldwide. In Brazil, the responsibility for the actions of to diagnosis and control of this disease was transferred to the municipalities within the Primary Health Care (PHC), aiming at improvement in epidemiological indicators, requiring reorientation of the practice of family health teams and requiring methodologies to analyze the extent to which components of the PHC are being achieved. Thus, this study aims to analyze the performance of primary care services in the city of Natal-RN for the diagnosis and control of TB, from the perspective of health professionals (doctors and nurses). The study is descriptive, cross-sectional and quantitative. Data collection was conducted from March to July 2011 and involved 121 health professionals working in 52 health units (family health unit, basic health unit and mixed units). The instrument is structured based on the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCAT), validated and adapted to assess attention to TB in Brazil, and includes questions regarding the Structure and Process components of health services. For quantitative analysis, it was constructed indicators, whose response patterns are followed according to the Likert scale between one and five, which meant the degree of preference relation (or agreement) of the claims. Values between 1 and 3 were considered unsatisfactory for the indicator, between 3 and less than 4, regular, and between 4 and 5, satisfactory. With regard to inputs and equipment, the units had satisfactory condition for form (  = 4.26), consultation (  = 4.02) and basic basket (  = 4.24); regular condition to pot (  = 3.56) and unsatisfactory conditions for transportation tickets (  = 1.50) and sputum smear microscopy (  = 2.42) and X-rays (  = 1.07). In relation to actions, there was satisfactory development for those focused on the individual patient. Actions aimed at the collective level, as the search for respiratory symptoms (RS), monitoring of contacts and guidelines for the community ranged from regular to unsatisfactory (  = 3.16 -  = 1.34). With regard to training, 94,2% received training to identify RS. As regards the time for diagnosis, the median time elapsed between the identification of RS and the beginning of treatment it was 22 days. In relation to the difficulties faced by professionals in the diagnosis of TB, 56,2% reported that they are related only to health services, especially for the failure in the rearguard laboratory and in the specialized services reference, the lack of human and material resources and low performing an active search. The professionals perceive the performance of diagnosis and control of TB, permeated with limitations and barriers to organizational and operational character of various sizes, emerging the need for effective coordination of various sectors and key stakeholders of TB care, to adoption of a new intersectoral strategies that aim to increase the responsiveness of the PHC, providing the best performance in service delivery to the user, family and community, and ensuring effective action and resolving the needs of this population group.

Electrical conductivity as an indicator of pea seed aging of stored at different temperatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)