Real-Time Simulation of Real-Time Pricing Demand Response to Meet Wind Variations

Recent changes of paradigm in power systems opened the opportunity to the active participation of new players. The small and medium players gain new opportunities while participating in demand response programs. This paper explores the optimal resources scheduling in two distinct levels. First, the network operator facing large wind power variations makes use of real time pricing to induce consumers to meet wind power variations. Then, at the consumer level, each load is managed according to the consumer preferences. The two-level resources schedule has been implemented in a real-time simulation platform, which uses hardware for consumer’ loads control. The illustrative example includes a situation of large lack of wind power and focuses on a consumer with 18 loads.

Spiteful Strategies. The ontogeny and the practice of spite in human interaction: an experimental game theory approach and empirical applications

As estratégias de malevolência implicam que um indivíduo pague um custo para infligir um custo superior a um oponente. Como um dos comportamentos fundamentais da sociobiologia, a malevolência tem recebido menos atenção que os seus pares o egoísmo e a cooperação. Contudo, foi estabelecido que a malevolência é uma estratégia viável em populações pequenas quando usada contra indivíduos negativamente geneticamente relacionados pois este comportamento pode i) ser eliminado naturalmente, ou ii) manter-se em equilíbrio com estratégias cooperativas devido à disponibilidade da parte de indivíduos malevolentes de pagar um custo para punir. Esta tese propõe compreender se a propensão para a malevolência nos humanos é inerente ou se esta se desenvolve com a idade. Para esse efeito, considerei duas experiências de teoria de jogos em crianças em ambiente escolar com idades entre os 6 e os 22 anos. A primeira, um jogo 2x2 foi testada com duas variantes: 1) um prémio foi atribuído a ambos os jogadores, proporcionalmente aos pontos acumulados; 2), um prémio foi atribuído ao jogador com mais pontos. O jogo foi desenhado com o intuito de causar o seguinte dilema a cada jogador: i) maximizar o seu ganho e arriscar ter menos pontos que o adversário; ou ii) decidir não maximizar o seu ganho, garantindo que este não era inferior ao do seu adversário. A segunda experiência consistia num jogo do ditador com duas opções: uma escolha egoísta/altruísta (A), onde o ditador recebia mais ganho, mas o seu recipiente recebia mais que ele e uma escolha malevolente (B) que oferecia menos ganhos ao ditador que a A mas mais ganhos que o recipiente. O dilema era que se as crianças se comportassem de maneira egoísta, obtinham mais ganho para si, ao mesmo tempo que aumentavam o ganho do seu colega. Se fossem malevolentes, então prefeririam ter mais ganho que o seu colega ao mesmo tempo que tinham menos para eles próprios. As experiências foram efetuadas em escolas de duas áreas distintas de Portugal (continente e Açores) para perceber se as preferências malevolentes aumentavam ou diminuíam com a idade. Os resultados na primeira experiência sugerem que (1) os alunos compreenderam a primeira variante como um jogo de coordenação e comportaram-se como maximizadores, copiando as jogadas anteriores dos seus adversários; (2) que os alunos repetentes se comportaram preferencialmente como malevolentes, mais frequentemente que como maximizadores, com especial ênfase para os alunos de 14 anos; (3) maioria dos alunos comportou-se reciprocamente desde os 12 até aos 16 anos de idade, após os quais começaram a desenvolver uma maior tolerância às escolhas dos seus parceiros. Os resultados da segunda experiência sugerem que (1) as estratégias egoístas eram prevalentes até aos 6 anos de idade, (2) as tendências altruístas emergiram até aos 8 anos de idade e (3) as estratégias de malevolência começaram a emergir a partir dos 8 anos de idade. Estes resultados complementam a literatura relativamente escassa sobre malevolência e sugerem que este comportamento está intimamente ligado a preferências de consideração sobre os outros, o paroquialismo e os estágios de desenvolvimento das crianças.************************************************************Spite is defined as an act that causes loss of payoff to an opponent at a cost to the actor. As one of the four fundamental behaviours in sociobiology, it has received far less attention than its counterparts selfishness and cooperation. It has however been established as a viable strategy in small populations when used against negatively related individuals. Because of this, spite can either i) disappear or ii) remain at equilibrium with cooperative strategies due to the willingness of spiteful individuals to pay a cost in order to punish. This thesis sets out to understand whether propensity for spiteful behaviour is inherent or if it develops with age. For that effect, two game-theoretical experiments were performed with schoolboys and schoolgirls aged 6 to 22. The first, a 2 x 2 game, was tested in two variants: 1) a prize was awarded to both players, proportional to accumulated points; 2), a prize was given to the player with most points. Each player faced the following dilemma: i) to maximise pay-off risking a lower pay-off than the opponent; or ii) not to maximise pay-off in order to cut down the opponent below their own. The second game was a dictator experiment with two choices, (A) a selfish/altruistic choice affording more payoff to the donor than B, but more to the recipient than to the donor, and (B) a spiteful choice that afforded less payoff to the donor than A, but even lower payoff to the recipient. The dilemma here was that if subjects behaved selfishly, they obtained more payoff for themselves, while at the same time increasing their opponent payoff. If they were spiteful, they would rather have more payoff than their colleague, at the cost of less for themselves. Experiments were run in schools in two different areas in Portugal (mainland and Azores) to understand whether spiteful preferences varied with age. Results in the first experiment suggested that (1) students understood the first variant as a coordination game and engaged in maximising behaviour by copying their opponent’s plays; (2) repeating students preferentially engaged in spiteful behaviour more often than maximising behaviour, with special emphasis on 14 year-olds; (3) most students engaged in reciprocal behaviour from ages 12 to 16, as they began developing higher tolerance for their opponent choices. Results for the second experiment suggested that (1) selfish strategies were prevalent until the age of 6, (2) altruistic tendencies emerged since then, and (3) spiteful strategies began being chosen more often by 8 year-olds. These results add to the relatively scarce body of literature on spite and suggest that this type of behaviour is closely tied with other-regarding preferences, parochialism and the children’s stages of development.

The influence of price changes on consumers' purchase decisions

The development of an effective pricing strategy requires the acquaintance of consumers’ price perception as well as the range of elements that influence the price sensitivity. This paper analyses the relationships between product features, individual characteristics and the level of price increase/decrease that induces the consumers to change their purchase decisions. The results of a dedicated survey show, that price sensitivity, individual preferences, type of product and direction of price change and individual characteristics of consumers (gender, age, professional situation) have a significant impact on a threshold at which people are willing to choose the less attractive, but cheaper alternative to their favorite product or give up the variety in consumption. From a consumer behavior perspective, these findings play a fundamental role in pricing.

A consumer research project as the basis for the development of a marketing plan for a new spirit brand producing gin in Germany

This work project is about developing a marketing plan for a new gin brand in Germany. It is based on consumer and market research, including Portugal as a trend market for the qualitative research. For the undertaking it is seen as fundamental to understand the industry as well as the consumer needs, attitudes and preferences. Furthermore, it is important to consider the estimation of opinion leaders and trendsetters in the industry. In this context it turned out that barkeepers have a key-influencing role for the stimulation of demand. Based on the insights from this research as well as on the gained market knowledge, the marketing plan was developed. The goal is to convince other brand users to switch brands.

Young adults' preferences and satisfaction levels in Duty-free shopping in airports

This study aims to explore and understand what young adults’ duty free shoppers (18-26 years old) want and are getting from travel retail shopping on airport environments and to evaluate their satisfaction levels with the service. It has important managerial contributions since it is an important target in a fast growing market. An online survey was conducted with 188 young adults and its results show that young adults’ are somewhat satisfied with the overall service on duty free stores mainly in what concerns quality of the products and physical evidence of the stores. Results also show that the majority of buyers within this segment are price driven and strongly influenced by promotions associated with price reductions, and do not seem very satisfied with respect to that. Keywords: Young

What do broadband consumers want? Design and execution of a questionnaire on demand for bundled services on the Portuguese telecomunications market

The report addresses the question of what are the preferences of broadband consumers on the Portuguese telecommunication market. A triple play bundle is being investigated. The discrete choice analysis, adopted in the study, base on 110 responses, mainly from NOVA students. The data for the analysis was collected via manually designed on-line survey. The results show that the price attribute is relatively the most important one while the television attribute is being overlooked in the decision making process. Main effects examined in the research are robust. In addition, "extras" components are being tested in terms of users' preferences.

The implications of mandatory low-cost fuel provision

This work studies fuel retail firms’ strategic behavior in a two-dimensional product differentiation framework. Following the mandatory provision of “low-cost” fuel we consider that capacity constraints force firms to eliminate of one the previously offered qualities. Firms play a two-stage game choosing fuel qualities from three possibilities (low-cost, medium quality and high quality fuel) and then prices having exogenous opposite locations. In the highest level of consumers’ heterogeneity, a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium exists in which firms both choose minimum quality differentiation. Consumers’ are worse off if no differentiation occurs in medium and high qualities. The effect over prices from the mandatory “low-cost” fuel law is ambiguous.

Corporate social responsability in advergames: Adjusting communication to the kids of today

Field lab: Consumer insights

Young adult Brazilian beauty consumers perception of Lancôme and the effectiveness of social media relationhips with local celebrities on their purchase intention

The aim of this research is to evaluate if a premium beauty brand, in this case, Lancôme, can influence positively the purchase intention from Brazilian young adults, between 18 and 29 years old, consumers of beauty products, by initiating a relationship with a local celebrity or “it” girl on social media. This hypothesis has not been tested, and this research is a first attempt of evaluating it. Additionally, the consumer behavior, brand preferences and social media activeness of this age segment in Brazil are further studied as important insights for beauty brands to conquer these consumers. Results did not confirm the positive influence of local celebrities on this age segment’s purchase intention but several suggestions are made for future research to revisit this topic. Furthermore, there is a significant brand love for M.A.C., an international Lancôme competitor, amongst this target, as well as a probable price sensitivity facing premium beauty brands.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Eating habits of preschool children with high migrant status in Switzerland according to a new food frequency questionnaire.

Assessment of eating habits in young children from multicultural backgrounds has seldom been conducted. Our objectives were to study the reproducibility and the results of a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) developed to assess changes in eating habits of preschool children with a high migrant population, in the context of a multidisciplinary multilevel lifestyle intervention. Three kindergarten classes (53% from migrant backgrounds) in French-speaking Switzerland were randomly selected and included 16 girls and 28 boys (mean age +/- SD, 5.4 +/- 0.7 years). The FFQ was filled out twice within a 4-week interval by the parents. Spearman rank correlations between the first and the second FFQ for the 39 items of the food questions were as follows: low (r < 0.50) for 8 (7 P < .05 and 1 nonsignificant), moderate (0.50 <or= r < 0.70) for 22 (all P < .01), and high (r >or= 0.70) for 9 (all P < .01). In addition, 28 of 39 intraclass correlation coefficients were high (>0.50, all P < .01). Eighty-six percent of the children ate breakfast at home daily, but only 67% had lunch at home. The percentages of children eating at least once a week in front of the TV were as follows: 50% for breakfast, 33% for lunch, 38% for dinner, and 48% for snacks. Forty percent of children asked their parents to buy food previously seen in advertisements and ate fast food between once a week and once a month. Children generally consumed foods with a high-energy content. The FFQ yielded good test-retest reproducibility for most items of the food questions and gave relevant findings about the eating habits of preschool children in areas with a high migrant population.

Inter- and intra-individual variation of oxytocin secretion in oestrous mares exposed to stallions

The neuro-peptide hormone oxytocin regulates several reproductive mechanisms in mammals, such as uterine contractions during parturition and milk ejection in the lactating mammary gland. Oxytocin may also influence behavior and behavioral strategies, e.g. pair bonding, social recognition, maternal behavior, trust building, or anxiety. Teasing oestrous mares by a stallion provokes the release of oxytocin. We therefore tested whether such elevated oxytocin levels reveal possible mate preferences as determined in typical preference tests.

Associative Issue Ownership as a Determinant of Voters' Campaign Attention

Campaigns raise public interest in politics and allow parties to convey their messages to voters. However, voters' exposure and attention during campaigns are biased towards parties and candidates they like. This hinders parties' ability to reach new voters. This paper theorises and empirically tests a simple way in which parties can break partisan selective attention: owning an issue. When parties own issues that are important for a voter, that voter is more likely to notice them. Using survey data collected prior to the 2009 Belgian regional elections it is shown that this effect exists independent of partisan preferences and while controlling for the absolute visibility of a party in the media. This indicates that issue ownership has an independent impact on voters' attention to campaigns. This finding shows that owning salient issues yields (potential) advantages for parties, since getting noticed is a prerequisite for conveying electoral messages and increasing electoral success.

Six-month outcomes of a multi-campus smoking cessation contest

Background: Up to 40% of North American post-secondary students smoke at least occasionally, and most want to quit. Given students' preferences for free, easy-to-access, self-directed, convenient cessation methods, a motivational, incentive-based cessation contest may be an effective way to assist students to quit. The current study describes 3- and 6-month outcomes experienced by post-secondary student smokers who entered the 'Let's Make A Deal!' contest. Methodology: Contestants from five university campuses who chose to quit completely ('Quit For Good') or reduce their tobacco consumption by 50% ('Keep The Count') were invited to participate in a study of the contest. Three and six months after registration, participants were contacted by phone to assess their smoking and quitting behaviours. Qualitative and quantitative measures were collected, including weekly tobacco consumption, efficacy to resist temptations to smoke, use of quitting aids, and strategies to cope with withdrawal. Quitting was assessed using 7-day point prevalence and continuous abstinence. Results: Seventy-four (64.9%) of the 114 participants recruited for the study completed the follow-ups. Over 31 % of participants who entered Quit For Good and 23.5% of participants who entered Keep The Count were identified as quitters at the 6-month follow-up. Among the quitters, 45.5% experienced sustained abstinence from smoking for the 6-month duration of the study. Keep The Count contestants reduced their tobacco consumption by 57.2% at 3-month follow-up and sustained some of this reduction through to the 6-month follow-up. Qualitative data provides insights into how quitters coped with withdrawal and what hampered continuing smokers' efforts to quit. Significance: A motivational, incentive-based contest for post-secondary students can facilitate both smoking cessation and harm reduction. The contest environment, incentives, resources, and "buddies" provide positive structural and social supports to help smokers overcome potential barriers to quitting, successfully stop smoking, and manage potential triggers to relapse. The contest cessation rates are higher than the typical 5-7% associated with unassisted quitting.

Personality traits and personal values : an investigation into the importance of each in the prediction of behaviour /

Personality traits and personal values are two important domains of individual differences. Traits are enduring and distinguishable patterns of behaviour whereas values are societally taught, stable, individual preferences that guide behaviour in order to reach a specific end state. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relations between self and peer report within the domains of personality traits and values, to examine the correlations between values and traits, and to explore the amount of incremental validity of traits and values in predicting behaviour. Two hundred and fiftytwo men and women from a university setting completed self and peer reports on three questionnaires. In order to assess personality traits, the HEXACO-PI (Lee & Ashton, 2004) was used to identify levels of 6 major dimensions of personality in participants. To assess values, the Schwartz Value Survey (Schwartz, 1992) was used to identify the importance each participant placed on each of Schwartz's 10 value types. To measure behaviour, a Behavior Scale, created by Bardi and Schwartz (2003), consisting of items designed to measure the frequency of value-expressive behaviour was used. As expected, correlations between self and peer reports for the personality scales were high indicating that personality traits are easily observable to other people. Correlations between self and peer reports for the values and behaviour scales were only moderate, suggesting that some goals, and behaviours expressive of those goals, may not always be observable to others. Consistent with previous research, there were many strong correlations between traits and values. In addition to the similarities with past research, the present study found that the personality factor Honesty-Humility was correlated strongly with values scales (with five correlations exceeding .25). In the prediction of behaviour, it was found that both personahty and values were able to account for significant and similar amounts of variance. Personality outpredicted values for some behaviours, but the opposite was true of other behaviours. Each domain provided incremental validity beyond the other domain. The impUcations for these findings, along with limitations, and possibilities for future research are also discussed.