The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN`s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.

A neural networks study of quinone compounds with trypanocidal activity

This work investigates neural network models for predicting the trypanocidal activity of 28 quinone compounds. Artificial neural networks (ANN), such as multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and Kohonen models, were employed with the aim of modeling the nonlinear relationship between quantum and molecular descriptors and trypanocidal activity. The calculated descriptors and the principal components were used as input to train neural network models to verify the behavior of the nets. The best model for both network models (MLP and Kohonen) was obtained with four descriptors as input. The descriptors were T(5) (torsion angle), QTS1 (sum of absolute values of the atomic charges), VOLS2 (volume of the substituent at region B) and HOMO-1 (energy of the molecular orbital below HOMO). These descriptors provide information on the kind of interaction that occurs between the compounds and the biological receptor. Both neural network models used here can predict the trypanocidal activity of the quinone compounds with good agreement, with low errors in the testing set and a high correctness rate. Thanks to the nonlinear model obtained from the neural network models, we can conclude that electronic and structural properties are important factors in the interaction between quinone compounds that exhibit trypanocidal activity and their biological receptors. The final ANN models should be useful in the design of novel trypanocidal quinones having improved potency.

Immigration, security and the public debate on US language policy : a critical discourse analysis of language attitudes in the United States of America

The narrative of the United States is of a "nation of immigrants" in which the language shift patterns of earlier ethnolinguistic groups have tended towards linguistic assimilation through English. In recent years, however, changes in the demographic landscape and language maintenance by non-English speaking immigrants, particularly Hispanics, have been perceived as threats and have led to calls for an official English language policy.This thesis aims to contribute to the study of language policy making from a societal security perspective as expressed in attitudes regarding language and identity originating in the daily interaction between language groups. The focus is on the role of language and American identity in relation to immigration. The study takes an interdisciplinary approach combining language policy studies, security theory, and critical discourse analysis. The material consists of articles collected from four newspapers, namely USA Today, The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and San Francisco Chronicle between April 2006 and December 2007.Two discourse types are evident from the analysis namely Loyalty and Efficiency. The former is mainly marked by concerns of national identity and contains speech acts of security related to language shift, choice and English for unity. Immigrants are represented as dehumanised, and harmful. Immigration is given as sovereignty-related, racial, and as war. The discourse type of Efficiency is mainly instrumental and contains speech acts of security related to cost, provision of services, health and safety, and social mobility. Immigrants are further represented as a labour resource. These discourse types reflect how the construction of the linguistic 'we' is expected to be maintained. Loyalty is triggered by arguments that the collective identity is threatened and is itself used in reproducing the collective 'we' through hegemonic expressions of monolingualism in the public space and semi-public space. The denigration of immigrants is used as a tool for enhancing societal security through solidarity and as a possible justification for the denial of minority rights. Also, although language acquisition patterns still follow the historical trend of language shift, factors indicating cultural separateness such as the appearance of speech communities or the use of minority languages in the public space and semi-public space have led to manifestations of intolerance. Examples of discrimination and prejudice towards minority groups indicate that the perception of worth of a shared language differs from the actual worth of dominant language acquisition for integration purposes. The study further indicates that the efficient working of the free market by using minority languages to sell services or buy labour is perceived as conflicting with nation-building notions since it may create separately functioning sub-communities with a new cultural capital recognised as legitimate competence. The discourse types mainly represent securitising moves constructing existential threats. The perception of threat and ideas of national belonging are primarily based on a zero-sum notion favouring monolingualism. Further, the identity of the immigrant individual is seen as dynamic and adaptable to assimilationist measures whereas the identity of the state and its members are perceived as static. Also, the study shows that debates concerning language status are linked to extra-linguistic matters. To conclude, policy makers in the US need to consider the relationship between four factors, namely societal security based on collective identity, individual/human security, human rights, and a changing linguistic demography, for proposed language intervention measures to be successful.

Visualization of spirography-based objective measures in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To investigate whether advanced visualizations of spirography-based objective measures are useful in differentiating drug-related motor dysfunctions between Off and dyskinesia in Parkinson’s disease (PD). Background: During the course of a 3 year longitudinal clinical study, in total 65 patients (43 males and 22 females with mean age of 65) with advanced PD and 10 healthy elderly (HE) subjects (5 males and 5 females with mean age of 61) were assessed. Both patients and HE subjects performed repeated and time-stamped assessments of their objective health indicators using a test battery implemented on a telemetry touch screen handheld computer, in their home environment settings. Among other tasks, the subjects were asked to trace a pre-drawn Archimedes spiral using the dominant hand and repeat the test three times per test occasion. Methods: A web-based framework was developed to enable a visual exploration of relevant spirography-based kinematic features by clinicians so they can in turn evaluate the motor states of the patients i.e. Off and dyskinesia. The system uses different visualization techniques such as time series plots, animation, and interaction and organizes them into different views to aid clinicians in measuring spatial and time-dependent irregularities that could be associated with the motor states. Along with the animation view, the system displays two time series plots for representing drawing speed (blue line) and displacement from ideal trajectory (orange line). The views are coordinated and linked i.e. user interactions in one of the views will be reflected in other views. For instance, when the user points in one of the pixels in the spiral view, the circle size of the underlying pixel increases and a vertical line appears in the time series views to depict the corresponding position. In addition, in order to enable clinicians to observe erratic movements more clearly and thus improve the detection of irregularities, the system displays a color-map which gives an idea of the longevity of the spirography task. Figure 2 shows single randomly selected spirals drawn by a: A) patient who experienced dyskinesias, B) HE subject, and C) patient in Off state. Results: According to a domain expert (DN), the spirals drawn in the Off and dyskinesia motor states are characterized by different spatial and time features. For instance, the spiral shown in Fig. 2A was drawn by a patient who showed symptoms of dyskinesia; the drawing speed was relatively high (cf. blue-colored time series plot and the short timestamp scale in the x axis) and the spatial displacement was high (cf. orange-colored time series plot) associated with smooth deviations as a result of uncontrollable movements. The patient also exhibited low amount of hesitation which could be reflected both in the animation of the spiral as well as time series plots. In contrast, the patient who was in the Off state exhibited different kinematic features, as shown in Fig. 2C. In the case of spirals drawn by a HE subject, there was a great precision during the drawing process as well as unchanging levels of time-dependent features over the test trial, as seen in Fig. 2B. Conclusions: Visualizing spirography-based objective measures enables identification of trends and patterns of drug-related motor dysfunctions at the patient’s individual level. Dynamic access of visualized motor tests may be useful during the evaluation of drug-related complications such as under- and over-medications, providing decision support to clinicians during evaluation of treatment effects as well as improve the quality of life of patients and their caregivers. In future, we plan to evaluate the proposed approach by assessing within- and between-clinician variability in ratings in order to determine its actual usefulness and then use these ratings as target outcomes in supervised machine learning, similarly as it was previously done in the study performed by Memedi et al. (2013).

How does the use of different road networks effect the optimal location of facilities in rural areas?

The p-median problem is often used to locate P service facilities in a geographically distributed population. Important for the performance of such a model is the distance measure. Distance measure can vary if the accuracy of the road network varies. The rst aim in this study is to analyze how the optimal location solutions vary, using the p-median model, when the road network is alternated. It is hard to nd an exact optimal solution for p-median problems. Therefore, in this study two heuristic solutions are applied, simulating annealing and a classic heuristic. The secondary aim is to compare the optimal location solutions using dierent algorithms for large p-median problem. The investigation is conducted by the means of a case study in a rural region with an asymmetrically distributed population, Dalecarlia. The study shows that the use of more accurate road networks gives better solutions for optimal location, regardless what algorithm that is used and regardless how many service facilities that is optimized for. It is also shown that the simulated annealing algorithm not just is much faster than the classic heuristic used here, but also in most cases gives better location solutions.

Soft computing in biometrics : a pragmatic appraisal

The ever increasing spurt in digital crimes such as image manipulation, image tampering, signature forgery, image forgery, illegal transaction, etc. have hard pressed the demand to combat these forms of criminal activities. In this direction, biometrics - the computer-based validation of a persons' identity is becoming more and more essential particularly for high security systems. The essence of biometrics is the measurement of person’s physiological or behavioral characteristics, it enables authentication of a person’s identity. Biometric-based authentication is also becoming increasingly important in computer-based applications because the amount of sensitive data stored in such systems is growing. The new demands of biometric systems are robustness, high recognition rates, capability to handle imprecision, uncertainties of non-statistical kind and magnanimous flexibility. It is exactly here that, the role of soft computing techniques comes to play. The main aim of this write-up is to present a pragmatic view on applications of soft computing techniques in biometrics and to analyze its impact. It is found that soft computing has already made inroads in terms of individual methods or in combination. Applications of varieties of neural networks top the list followed by fuzzy logic and evolutionary algorithms. In a nutshell, the soft computing paradigms are used for biometric tasks such as feature extraction, dimensionality reduction, pattern identification, pattern mapping and the like.

Effective measures to decrease air contaminants through risk and control visualization : a study of the effective use of QR codes to facilitate safety training

Woodworking industries still consists of wood dust problems. Young workers are especially vulnerable to safety risks. To reduce risks, it is important to change attitudes and increase knowledge about safety. Safety training have shown to establish positive attitudes towards safety among employees. The aim of current study is to analyze the effect of QR codes that link to Picture Mix EXposure (PIMEX) videos by analyzing attitudes to this safety training method and safety in student responses. Safety training videos were used in upper secondary school handicraft programs to demonstrate wood dust risks and methods to decrease exposure to wood dust. A preliminary study was conducted to investigate improvement of safety training in two schools in preparation for the main study that investigated a safety training method in three schools. In the preliminary study the PIMEX method was first used in which students were filmed while wood dust exposure was measured and subsequently displayed on a computer screen in real time. Before and after the filming, teachers, students, and researchers together analyzed wood dust risks and effective measures to reduce exposure to them. For the main study, QR codes linked to PIMEX videos were attached at wood processing machines. Subsequent interviews showed that this safety training method enables students in an early stage of their life to learn about risks and safety measures to control wood dust exposure. The new combination of methods can create awareness, change attitudes and motivation among students to work more frequently to reduce wood dust. 

Técnicas de detecção de Sniffers

A área de Detecção de Intrusão, apesar de muito pesquisada, não responde a alguns problemas reais como níveis de ataques, dim ensão e complexidade de redes, tolerância a falhas, autenticação e privacidade, interoperabilidade e padronização. Uma pesquisa no Instituto de Informática da UFRGS, mais especificamente no Grupo de Segurança (GSEG), visa desenvolver um Sistema de Detecção de Intrusão Distribuído e com características de tolerância a falhas. Este projeto, denominado Asgaard, é a idealização de um sistema cujo objetivo não se restringe apenas a ser mais uma ferramenta de Detecção de Intrusão, mas uma plataforma que possibilite agregar novos módulos e técnicas, sendo um avanço em relação a outros Sistemas de Detecção atualmente em desenvolvimento. Um tópico ainda não abordado neste projeto seria a detecção de sniffers na rede, vindo a ser uma forma de prevenir que um ataque prossiga em outras estações ou redes interconectadas, desde que um intruso normalmente instala um sniffer após um ataque bem sucedido. Este trabalho discute as técnicas de detecção de sniffers, seus cenários, bem como avalia o uso destas técnicas em uma rede local. As técnicas conhecidas são testadas em um ambiente com diferentes sistemas operacionais, como linux e windows, mapeando os resultados sobre a eficiência das mesmas em condições diversas.

Modelo de gestão de risco em segurança da informação: um estudo de caso no mercado brasileiro de cartões de crédito

As questões ligadas a gestão de riscos associados a segurança da informação já é uma realidade no cenário empresarial brasileiro. O crescimento das operações de negócios em direção aos sistemas de informação baseados em tecnologia fez com que os números de ameaças e de vulnerabilidades sobre as redes de computadores e comunicações aumentassem. Vários são os desafios de estruturação e implementação de uma área de segurança da informação dentro das empresas. Este trabalho analisa as diversas formas de construção de uma infra-estrutura de gestão de risco em segurança de informação, não só no âmbito tecnológico, mas também, no operacional e no mercadológico, de forma a estabelecer uma relação transparente às demais áreas internas da organização, aos clientes e a todo o mercado. A segurança da informação, vista freqüentemente como um assunto ligado a tecnologia, passa a ser entendida cada vez mais como um processo de negócio, e conseqüentemente, uma grande vantagem competitiva para o mundo empresarial.