906 resultados para Complex systems prediction


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The aim of the current study was to evaluate the potential of the dynamic lipolysis model to simulate the absorption of a poorly soluble model drug compound, probucol, from three lipid-based formulations and to predict the in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) using neuro-fuzzy networks. An oil solution and two self-micro and nano-emulsifying drug delivery systems were tested in the lipolysis model. The release of probucol to the aqueous (micellar) phase was monitored during the progress of lipolysis. These release profiles compared with plasma profiles obtained in a previous bioavailability study conducted in mini-pigs at the same conditions. The release rate and extent of release from the oil formulation were found to be significantly lower than from SMEDDS and SNEDDS. The rank order of probucol released (SMEDDS approximately SNEDDS > oil formulation) was similar to the rank order of bioavailability from the in vivo study. The employed neuro-fuzzy model (AFM-IVIVC) achieved significantly high prediction ability for different data formations (correlation greater than 0.91 and prediction error close to zero), without employing complex configurations. These preliminary results suggest that the dynamic lipolysis model combined with the AFM-IVIVC can be a useful tool in the prediction of the in vivo behavior of lipid-based formulations.

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Background: Developing complex interventions for testing in randomised controlled trials is of increasing importance in healthcare planning. There is a need for careful design of interventions for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD). It has been suggested that integrating qualitative research in the development of a complex intervention may contribute to optimising its design but there is limited evidence of this in practice. This study aims to examine the contribution of qualitative research in developing a complex intervention to improve the provision and uptake of secondary prevention of CHD within primary care in two different healthcare systems.

Methods: In four general practices, one rural and one urban, in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, patients with CHD were purposively selected. Four focus groups with patients (N = 23) and four with staff (N = 29) informed the development of the intervention by exploring how it could be tailored and integrated with current secondary prevention activities for CHD in the two healthcare settings. Following an exploratory trial the acceptability and feasibility of the intervention were discussed in four focus groups (17 patients) and 10 interviews (staff). The data were analysed using thematic analysis.

Results: Integrating qualitative research into the development of the intervention provided depth of information about the varying impact, between the two healthcare systems, of different funding and administrative arrangements, on their provision of secondary prevention and identified similar barriers of time constraints, training needs and poor patient motivation. The findings also highlighted the importance to patients of stress management, the need for which had been underestimated by the researchers. The qualitative evaluation provided depth of detail not found in evaluation questionnaires. It highlighted how the intervention needed to be more practical by minimising administration, integrating role plays into behaviour change training, providing more practical information about stress management and removing self-monitoring of lifestyle change.

Conclusion: Qualitative research is integral to developing the design detail of a complex intervention and tailoring its components to address individuals' needs in different healthcare systems. The findings highlight how qualitative research may be a valuable component of the preparation for complex interventions and their evaluation.

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This research published in the foremost international journal in information theory and shows interplay between complex random matrix and multiantenna information theory. Dr T. Ratnarajah is leader in this area of research and his work has been contributed in the development of graduate curricula (course reader) in Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USA, By Professor Alan Edelman. The course name is "The Mathematics and Applications of Random Matrices", see http://web.mit.edu/18.338/www/projects.html

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This paper derives a general procedure for the numerical solution of the Lindblad equations that govern the coherences arising from multicoloured light interacting with a multilevel system. A systematic approach to finding the conservative and dissipative terms is derived and applied to the laser cooling of p-block elements. An improved numerical method is developed to solve the time-dependent master equation and results are presented for transient cooling processes. The method is significantly more robust, efficient and accurate than the standard method and can be applied to a broad range of atomic and molecular systems. Radiation pressure forces and the formation of dynamic dark states are studied in the gallium isotope 66Ga.

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Title: Boundary-setting as a core activity in complex public systems
Authors: Joanne Murphy & Mary Lee Rhodes

The definition of the boundary of a system is at the core of any systems approach (Midgley 2000; 2003). By defining boundaries we enable – and delimit – the range of outcomes sought and the actions and resources that can be brought to bear. In complex adaptive systems (CAS) analysis, the conceptualisaion and definition of boundaries is particularly challenging as they are constantly undergoing redefinition through agent action, interaction and entry/exit. (Rhodes et al 2011). The concept of ‘boundaries’ appears regularly in a wide range of literature around public management, administration, geopolitics, regeneration and organisational development. Discussions around boundaries focus on many things from concrete physical manifestations and barriers, to virtual interfaces between one organisational unit and another, or even entirely theoretical demarcations between different schools of thought (Kaboolian, 1998, Levi-Faur, 2004, Agranoff & McGuire, 2004).

However, managing ‘beyond’ such boundaries is a routinely recurring aspiration that transcends sectors and local concerns. Unsurprisingly then, there is an increasing understanding of the need to acknowledge and manage such boundaries (whether they be physical, social or organisational) within public management as a discipline (Currie et al 2007, Fitzsimmons and White, 1997, Murtagh, 2002). This paper explores the impact of boundaries on public management strategic decision-making in the sectors of urban regeneration and healthcare. In particular, it focuses on demarcations to physical space, communal identity and within professional relationships in these sectors.

The first section describes the research that gave rise to the paper and the cases examined. Next we briefly define what we mean by boundaries. We explore issues that have emerged from our analysis of urban regeneration and health care singularly, before looking at how the concept of boundaries is a recurrent concern across the sectors. The main contribution of the paper is an exploration of how a CAS lens can bring a new insight into the concept of boundaries and decision-making in the two sets of case studies. This discussion will concentrate on initial conditions, bifurcation and adaptation as key CAS factors in relation to boundaries. We conclude with a brief discussion on the benefits of a CAS lens to an analysis of boundaries in public management decision-making.
References:

Agranoff, R. and McGuire, M. (2003) Collaborative Public Management: Strategies for Local Government. Washington, DC: Georgetown Univ. Press.

Currie, G., Lockett, A. (2007) “A critique of transformational leadership: moral, professional & contingent dimensions of leadership within public services organizations”. Human Relations 60: 341-370.

Fitzsimmons and White, (1997) "Crossing boundaries: communication between professional groups", Journal of Management in Medicine, Vol. 11 Iss: 2, pp.96 – 101

Kaboolian, L. (1998) “The New Public Management: Challenging the Boundaries of the Management vs. Administration Debate” Public Administration Review Vol. 58, No. 3 pp.189-193

Levi-Faur D. and Vigoda-Gadot Eran (eds) (2004) International Public Policy and Management: Policy Learning Beyond Regional, Cultural and Political Boundaries, Marcel Dekker,
Midgley, G. (ed) (2003) Systems Thinking. London: Sage Publications

Midgley, G. (2000) Systemic Intervention: Philosophy, Methodology and Practice. New York, NY: Kluwer.

Murtagh, B. (2002). The Politics of Territory: Policy and Segregation in Northern Ireland. Basingstoke, Palgrave.

Rhodes, ML, Joanne Murphy, Jenny Muir, John Murray (2011) Public Management & Complexity Theory: Richer Decision Making in Irish Public Services, UK: Routledge



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The hybrid test method is a relatively recently developed dynamic testing technique that uses numerical modelling combined with simultaneous physical testing. The concept of substructuring allows the critical or highly nonlinear part of the structure that is difficult to numerically model with accuracy to be physically tested whilst the remainder of the structure, that has a more predictable response, is numerically modelled. In this paper, a substructured soft-real time hybrid test is evaluated as an accurate means of performing seismic tests of complex structures. The structure analysed is a three-storey, two-by-one bay concentrically braced frame (CBF) steel structure subjected to seismic excitation. A ground storey braced frame substructure whose response is critical to the overall response of the structure is tested, whilst the remainder of the structure is numerically modelled. OpenSees is used for numerical modelling and OpenFresco is used for the communication between the test equipment and numerical model. A novel approach using OpenFresco to define the complex numerical substructure of an X-braced frame within a hybrid test is also presented. The results of the hybrid tests are compared to purely numerical models using OpenSees and a simulated test using a combination of OpenSees and OpenFresco. The comparative results indicate that the test method provides an accurate and cost effective procedure for performing
full scale seismic tests of complex structural systems.

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Scalability and efficiency of on-chip communication of emerging Multiprocessor System-on-Chip (MPSoC) are critical design considerations. Conventional bus based interconnection schemes no longer fit for MPSoC with a large number of cores. Networks-on-Chip (NoC) is widely accepted as the next generation interconnection scheme for large scale MPSoC. The increase of MPSoC complexity requires fast and accurate system-level modeling techniques for rapid modeling and veri-fication of emerging MPSoCs. However, the existing modeling methods are limited in delivering the essentials of timing accuracy and simulation speed. This paper proposes a novel system-level Networks-on-Chip (NoC) modeling method, which is based on SystemC and TLM2.0 and capable of delivering timing accuracy close to cycle accurate modeling techniques at a significantly lower simulation cost. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the proposed method. ©2010 IEEE.

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Being a new generation of green solvents and high-tech reaction media of the future, ionic liquids have increasingly attracted much attention. Of particular interest in this context are room temperature ionic liquids (in short as ILs in this paper). Due to the relatively high viscosity, ILs is expected to be used in the form of solvent diluted mixture with reduced viscosity in industrial application, where predicting the viscosity of IL mixture has been an important research issue. Different IL mixture and many modelling approaches have been investigated. The objective of this study is to provide an alternative model approach using soft computing technique, i.e., artificial neural network (ANN) model, to predict the compositional viscosity of binary mixtures of ILs [C n-mim][NTf 2] with n=4, 6, 8, 10 in methanol and ethanol over the entire range of molar fraction at a broad range of temperatures from T=293.0-328.0K. The results show that the proposed ANN model provides alternative way to predict compositional viscosity successfully with highly improved accuracy and also show its potential to be extensively utilized to predict compositional viscosity taking account of IL alkyl chain length, as well as temperature and compositions simultaneously, i.e., more complex intermolecular interactions between components in which it would be hard or impossible to establish the analytical model. This illustrates the potential application of ANN in the case that the physical and thermodynamic properties are highly non-linear or too complex. © 2012 Copyright the authors.

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The nature and challenges of public sector leadership and management are examined in four case studies of project management in complex metropolitan environments. The cases selected by the authors as representative of contextual factors affecting decision-making processes and project outcomes. Drawing on recent theoretical work on complex leadership approaches (Uhl-Bein et al 2007, Hazy 2008, Lichtenstein & Plowman 2009), the authors assess leadership practices enacted and the circumstances that influence these practices. Leadership types theorized by Uhl-Bein et al (2007) are identified operating at different levels and across networks, with contextual factors outlined. The article concludes with a framework for leadership practice and management identifying network facilitation and complexity friendly tools as a practice within complex public sector systems.