870 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models
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Introduction The social agenda is long-term in nature, in the sense that poverty alleviation along with a better distribution of income, wealth and opportunities are long-term goals. A sound macroeconomic policy, on the other hand, has to do largely with the consistent management of short-term policy instruments pursuing a sustainable and predictable pace for aggregate economic variables and major prices (wages, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates). In spite of the different arena and rationale in which they play, there are strong links between the two. First and most obvious, macroeconomic adjustment and structural reform are more likely to be sustainable when they are equitable. Second, social intervention —i.e., policies, programmes and reforms aimed at improving social performance in the long run—, needs stable funding which is not always available in view of macroeconomic constraints. Third, macroeconomic instability —especially episodes of recession or hyperinflation— increases poverty and inequality, while restoring macroeconomic equilibrium does not restore previous social balances. Finally, there is no unique macroeconomic policy mix to tackle a given situation, and the policy options may not be neutral from a social standpoint. Monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies, together with structural reform, have major consequences for the social wellbeing of societies, not only in terms of protection against shocks and crises but also in terms of equity. Many, if not all, of the necessary social policies are of a domestic nature. This report thus concentrates on domestic strategies aimed at maximizing the linkages between consistent macroeconomic policies and social progress. Pursuing them, however, depends to a considerable extent on the international enabling environment in which the global financial system, the unsettled debt crisis and increasing ODA flows play a significant role. Countries operate in a world economy where market players everywhere immediately scrutinize domestic monetary, financial or fiscal policy decisions and the performance of exchange rate regimes of individual countries. Under these conditions, the room for manoeuvre of policymakers has become considerably constrained. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly complex to incorporate the social dimensions into such policy decisions, to the extent that external analysts consider that authorities are sacrificing sound macroeconomic policies. The main message of the report is that the expediency of short-term economic efficiency as embedded in much of the advice on macroeconomic stability needs to be tempered by long-term development objectives. The report starts with a short historical background which describes the ascendancy of macroeconomic policies over social development policies (chapter I). It continues with an evaluation of the relation between macroeconomic consistency and social effort (chapter II), and the importance of sustainable and stable growth for social progress (chapter III). The report then turns to the need for an equity-enhancing growth strategy (chapter IV) and an analysis of the priorities of social policies in an integrated approach to growth (chapter V). The final chapter adds some final institutional remarks.
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Biodiesel fuel is gradually replacing petroleum-based diesel oil use. Despite the biodiesel being considered friendlier to the environment, little is known about its effects in aquatic organisms. In this work we evaluated whether biodiesel exposure can affect oxidative stress parameters and biotransformation enzymes in armored catfish (Pterygoplichthys anisitsi, Loricariidae), a South American endemic species. Thus, fish were exposed for 2 and 7d to 0.01mLL-1 and 0.1mLL-1 of pure diesel, pure biodiesel (B100) and blends of diesel with 5% (B5) and 20% (B20) biodiesel. Lipid peroxidation (malondialdehyde) levels and the activities of the enzymes glutathione S-transferase, superoxide dismutase, catalase and glutathione peroxidase were measured in liver and gills. Also, DNA damage (8-oxo-7, 8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine) levels in gills and 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activity in liver were assessed. Pure diesel, B5 and B20 blends changed most of the enzymes tested and in some cases, B5 and B20 induced a higher enzyme activity than pure diesel. Antioxidant system activation in P. anisitsi was effective to counteract reactive oxygen species effects, since DNA damage and lipid peroxidation levels were maintained at basal levels after all treatments. However, fish gills exposed to B20 and B100 presented increased lipid peroxidation. Despite biodiesel being more biodegradable fuel that emits less greenhouse gases, the increased lipid peroxidation showed that biofuel and its blends also represent hazards to aquatic biota. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
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Includes bibliography
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This issue of the FAL bulletin continues the analysis begun in the previous issue (Issue No. 295, number 3/2011) on the impact of the crisis on maritime transport.
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Incluye Bibliografía.
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The proper management of agricultural crop residues could produce benefits in a warmer, more drought-prone world. Field experiments were conducted in sugarcane production areas in the Southern Brazil to assess the influence of crop residues on the soil surface in short-term CO2 emissions. The study was carried out over a period of 50 days after establishing 6 plots with and without crop residues applied to the soil surface. The effects of sugarcane residues on CO2 emissions were immediate; the emissions from residue-covered plots with equivalent densities of 3 (D50) and 6 (D100) t ha-1 (dry mass) were less than those from non-covered plots (D0). Additionally, the covered fields had lower soil temperatures and higher soil moisture for most of the studied days, especially during the periods of drought. Total emissions were as high as 553.62 ± 47.20 g CO2 m-2, and as low as 384.69 ± 31.69 g CO2 m-2 in non-covered (D0) and covered plot with an equivalent density of 3 t ha-1 (D50), respectively. Our results indicate a significant reduction in CO2 emissions, indicating conservation of soil carbon over the short-term period following the application of sugarcane residues to the soil surface.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)