Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulation for the local-scale characterization of heterogeneous aquifers

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.

Uveitis and juvenile idiopathic arthritis: A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Assess the incidence of intraocular inflammation (uveitis) and ocular complications in children with various types of JIA in a single cohort of patients. PATIENTS: Included are 172 children (35 boys and 137 girls) diagnosed with JIA. All underwent thorough initial ophthalmologic examination and were followed for a minimum of 3 years. RESULTS: Of 172 children with JIA, 152 (88.4%) presented with arthritis. Uveitis was detected in 14 of the152 children (9.2%) during the first ophthalmic examination. In 17 additional patients of this group (11.2%), uveitis developed during the follow up period of up to 15 years. Twenty children out of the total of 172 (11.6%) presented initially with uveitis. In children developing uveitis before or along with arthritic manifestations, the ocular disease was chronic with a high rate of secondary complications (band keratopathy, glaucoma, posterior synechiae and cataract). In all affected eyes the initial ocular inflammation was typically confined to the anterior segment. On longer follow up however, most children developed binocular disease and posterior segment involvement. Dense cataract and amblyopia were the major cause of severe visual disabilities. CONCLUSION: Pauciarticular JIA is associated with intraocular inflammation (uveitis) early during the arthritic disease course. The ocular disease course is unpredictable. Therefore education of parents regarding its signs and symptoms is of utmost importance. To preserve functional vision, secondary ocular complications and amblyopia should be avoided.

Trends over time of virological and immunological characteristics in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcome of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not assessed in controlled trials. We aimed to analyse trends in the population effectiveness of ART in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study over the last decade. METHODS: We analysed the odds of stably suppressed viral load (ssVL: three consecutive values <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) and of CD4 cell count exceeding 500 cells/μL for each year between 2000 and 2008 in three scenarios: an open cohort; a closed cohort ignoring the influx of new participants after 2000; and a worst-case closed cohort retaining lost or dead patients as virological failures in subsequent years. We used generalized estimating equations with sex, age, risk, non-White ethnicity and era of starting combination ART (cART) as fixed co-factors. Time-updated co-factors included type of ART regimen, number of new drugs and adherence to therapy. RESULTS: The open cohort included 9802 individuals (median age 38 years; 31% female). From 2000 to 2008, the proportion of participants with ssVL increased from 37 to 64% [adjusted odds ratio (OR) per year 1.16 (95% CI 1.15-1.17)] and the proportion with CD4 count >500 cells/μL increased from 40 to >50% [OR 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.07)]. Similar trends were seen in the two closed cohorts. Adjustment did not substantially affect time trends. CONCLUSIONS: There was no relevant dilution effect through new participants entering the open clinical cohort, and the increase in virological/immunological success over time was not an artefact of the study design of open cohorts. This can partly be explained by new treatment options and other improvements in medical care.

FM127: Systemic metal ion levels in patients with modular neck total hip arthroplasties: a prospective cohort study

There is increasing evidence that modular neck stems are prone to corrosion-related complications. Recent studies showed elevated metal ions levels and occasional pseudotumor formation in patients with such implants. The purpose of this study was to compare systemic metal-ion levels in patients after primary THA with modular neck stems to those of patients after non-modular implants. To our knowledge, this is the first cohort study including a control group, THA without CoCr heads and dry-assembled neck-stem connections. Methods: 50 patients after THA at a minimum follow-up of 1 year have been selected for the study. Patients with multiple prosthesis or other implants have been deselected. All received a cementless SPS stem from Symbios (Ti6Al4V). 40 patients have the modular neck (CoCr) version and 10 a monobloc version. All bearings were either ceramic-ceramic or ceramic-polyethylene to minimize other sources of CoCr ion release. In the modular group, the neck was chosen pre-operatively based on a 3D planning, allowing for a dry assembly of the stem and neck on the back table before implantation. A plasma system coupled to mass spectrometry was used for a complete elementary quantification in blood and serum separately. Clinical outcome was measured using the Oxford Hip Score. Results : Complete data sets of 29 patients (24 in the modular neck-group (10male, mean age 63y, 35-84y) and 5 in the monobloc-group (3 male, 69 y, 51-83y) are available to date. Mean Co blood levels were .95 ug/L (.14-12.4) in the modular group vs .27 ug/L (.10-.73) in the monobloc group (p=.2). Respective values for Cr were significantly higher in the modular group (.99 g/L; range .75-1.21) compared to those in the monobloc group (.74 g/L ;.62-.86; p=.001). No significant difference was found when comparing serum levels. 5/24 patients had Co levels above 1 g/L (12/24 for Cr), which is by some considered as a relevant elevation. The maximum Co level was measured in an asymptomatic patient. The Oxford Hip Scores were similar in both groups. Conclusion: Cr levels were significantly elevated in the modular neck group compared to those in the monobloc group. 1/24 patients with a modular prosthesis exhibited Co levels, which are beyond the threshold accepted even for metal-on-metal bearing couples. These results have contributed to our decision to abandon the use of modular neck stems. Routine follow-up including annual measurements of systemic CoCr concentrations should be considered.

Monte Carlo simulation of a clearance box monitor used for nuclear power plant decommissioning.

When decommissioning a nuclear facility it is important to be able to estimate activity levels of potentially radioactive samples and compare with clearance values defined by regulatory authorities. This paper presents a method of calibrating a clearance box monitor based on practical experimental measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. Adjusting the simulation for experimental data obtained using a simple point source permits the computation of absolute calibration factors for more complex geometries with an accuracy of a bit more than 20%. The uncertainty of the calibration factor can be improved to about 10% when the simulation is used relatively, in direct comparison with a measurement performed in the same geometry but with another nuclide. The simulation can also be used to validate the experimental calibration procedure when the sample is supposed to be homogeneous but the calibration factor is derived from a plate phantom. For more realistic geometries, like a small gravel dumpster, Monte Carlo simulation shows that the calibration factor obtained with a larger homogeneous phantom is correct within about 20%, if sample density is taken as the influencing parameter. Finally, simulation can be used to estimate the effect of a contamination hotspot. The research supporting this paper shows that activity could be largely underestimated in the event of a centrally-located hotspot and overestimated for a peripherally-located hotspot if the sample is assumed to be homogeneously contaminated. This demonstrates the usefulness of being able to complement experimental methods with Monte Carlo simulations in order to estimate calibration factors that cannot be directly measured because of a lack of available material or specific geometries.

Rate of undesirable events at beginning of academic year: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether an increase in the rate of undesirable events occurs after care provided by trainees at the beginning of the academic year. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using administrative and patient record data. SETTING: University affiliated hospital in Melbourne, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: 19,560 patients having an anaesthetic procedure carried out by first to fifth year trainees starting work for the first time at the hospital over a period of five years (1995-2000). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute event rates, absolute rate reduction, and rate ratios of undesirable events. RESULTS: The rate of undesirable events was higher at the beginning of the academic year compared with the rest of the year (absolute event rate 137 v 107 per 1000 patient hours, relative rate reduction 28%, P<0.001). The overall adjusted rate ratio for undesirable events was 1.40, 95% confidence interval 1.24 to 1.58. This excess risk was seen for all residents, regardless of their level of seniority. The excess risk decreased progressively after the first month, and the trend disappeared fully after the fourth month of the year (rate ratio for fourth month 1.21, 0.93 to 1.57). The most important decreases were for central and peripheral nerve injuries (relative difference 82%), inadequate oxygenation of the patient (66%), vomiting/aspiration in theatre (53%), and technical failures of tracheal tube placement (49%). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of undesirable events was greater among trainees at the beginning of the academic year regardless of their level of clinical experience. This suggests that several additional factors, such as knowledge of the working environment, teamwork, and communication, may contribute to the increase.

Extraintestinal manifestations in inflammatory bowel disease: frequency and associated risk factors in the nationwide Swiss IBD cohort study (SIBDCS)

Background: Data on the frequency of extraintestinal manifestations (EIM) in Crohnʼs disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are scarce. Goal: to evaluate prevalences, forms of EIM and risk factors in a large nationwide IBD cohort. Methods: Data from validated physician enrolment questionnaires of the adult Swiss IBD cohort were analyzed. Logistic regression models were used to identify EIM risk factors. Results: 950 patients were included, 580 (61%) with CD (mean age 43yrs) and 370 (39%) with UC (mean age 49yrs), of these, 249 (43%) of CD and 113 (31%) of UC patients had one to 5 EIM. The following EIM were found: arthritis (CD 33%, UC 21%), aphthous stomatitis (CD 10%, UC 4%), uveitis (CD 6%, UC 4%), erythema nodosum (CD 6%, UC 3%), ankylosing spondylitis (CD 6%, UC 2%), psoriasis (CD 2%, UC 1%), pyoderma gangrenosum (CD and UC each 2%), primary sclerosing cholangitis (CD 1%, UC 4%). Logistic regression in CD identified the following items as risk factors for ongoing EIM: active disease (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.17-3.23, P=0.01), positive IBD family history (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.07-2.92, P=0.025). No risk factors were identified in UC patients. Conclusions: EIM are a frequent problem in CD and UC patients. Active disease and positive IBD family history are associated with ongoing EIM in CD patients. Identification of EIM prevalence and associated risk factors may result in increased awareness for this problem and thereby facilitate their diagnosis and management.

Analysis of TNF-antagonist switch over time and associated risk factors in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort.

Abstract Background and aims. Limited data from large cohorts are available on tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists (infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab pegol) switch over time. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of switching from one TNF antagonist to another and to identify associated risk factors. Methods. Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Cohort Study (SIBDCS) were analyzed. Results. Of 1731 patients included into the SIBDCS (956 with Crohn's disease [CD] and 775 with ulcerative colitis [UC]), 347 CD patients (36.3%) and 129 UC patients (16.6%) were treated with at least one TNF antagonist. A total of 53/347 (15.3%) CD patients (median disease duration 9 years) and 20/129 (15.5%) of UC patients (median disease duration 7 years) needed to switch to a second and/or a third TNF antagonist, respectively. Median treatment duration was longest for the first TNF antagonist used (CD 25 months; UC 14 months), followed by the second (CD 13 months; UC 4 months) and third TNF antagonist (CD 11 months; UC 15 months). Primary nonresponse, loss of response and side effects were the major reasons to stop and/or switch TNF antagonist therapy. A low body mass index, a short diagnostic delay and extraintestinal manifestations at inclusion were identified as risk factors for a switch of the first used TNF antagonist within 24 months of its use in CD patients. Conclusion. Switching of the TNF antagonist over time is a common issue. The median treatment duration with a specific TNF antagonist is diminishing with an increasing number of TNF antagonists being used.

Antiretroviral adherence program in HIV patients: a feasibility study in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Objective To evaluate the feasibility of a comprehensive, interdisciplinary adherence program aimed at HIV patients. Setting Two centers of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: Lausanne and Basel. Method 6-month, pilot, quasi-experimental, 2-arm design (control and intervention). Patients starting a first or second combined antiretroviral therapy line were invited to participate in the study. Patients entering the intervention arm were proposed a multifactorial intervention along with an electronic drug monitor. It consisted of a maximum of six 30-min sessions with the interventionist coinciding with routine HIV check-up. The sessions relied on individualized semi-structured motivational interviews. Patients in the control arm used directly blinded EDM and did not participate in motivational interviews. Main outcome measures Rate of patients' acceptance to take part in the HIV-adherence program and rate of patients' retention in this program assessed in both intervention and control groups. Persistence, execution and adherence. Results The study was feasible in one center but not in the other one. Hence, the control group previously planned in Basel was recruited in Lausanne. Inclusion rate was 84% (n = 21) in the intervention versus 52% (n = 11) in the control group (P = 0.027). Retention rate was 91% in the intervention versus 82% in the control group (P = ns). Regarding adherence, execution was high in both groups (97 vs. 95%). Interestingly, the statistical model showed that adherence decreased more quickly in the control versus the intervention group (interaction group × time P < 0.0001). Conclusion The encountered difficulties rely on the implementation, i.e., on the program and the health care system levels rather than on the patient level. Implementation needs to be evaluated further; to be feasible a new adherence program needs to fit into the daily routine of the centre and has to be supported by all trained healthcare providers. However, this study shows that patients' adherence behavior evolved differently in both groups; it decreased more quickly over time in the control than in the intervention group. RCTs are eventually needed to assess the clinical impact of such an adherence program and to verify whether skilled pharmacists can ensure continuity of care for HIV outpatients.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

An epidemiological evaluation of pediatric long bone fractures - a retrospective cohort study of 2716 patients from two Swiss tertiary pediatric hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Children and adolescents are at high risk of sustaining fractures during growth. Therefore, epidemiological assessment is crucial for fracture prevention. The AO Comprehensive Injury Automatic Classifier (AO COIAC) was used to evaluate epidemiological data of pediatric long bone fractures in a large cohort. METHODS: Data from children and adolescents with long bone fractures sustained between 2009 and 2011, treated at either of two tertiary pediatric surgery hospitals in Switzerland, were retrospectively collected. Fractures were classified according to the AO Pediatric Comprehensive Classification of Long Bone Fractures (PCCF). RESULTS: For a total of 2716 patients (60% boys), 2807 accidents with 2840 long bone fractures (59% radius/ulna; 21% humerus; 15% tibia/fibula; 5% femur) were documented. Children's mean age (SD) was 8.2 (4.0) years (6% infants; 26% preschool children; 40% school children; 28% adolescents). Adolescent boys sustained more fractures than girls (p < 0.001). The leading cause of fractures was falls (27%), followed by accidents occurring during leisure activities (25%), at home (14%), on playgrounds (11%), and traffic (11%) and school accidents (8%). There was boy predominance for all accident types except for playground and at home accidents. The distribution of accident types differed according to age classes (p < 0.001). Twenty-six percent of patients were classed as overweight or obese - higher than data published by the WHO for the corresponding ages - with a higher proportion of overweight and obese boys than in the Swiss population (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Overall, differences in the fracture distribution were sex and age related. Overweight and obese patients seemed to be at increased risk of sustaining fractures. Our data give valuable input into future development of prevention strategies. The AO PCCF proved to be useful in epidemiological reporting and analysis of pediatric long bone fractures.

Improving node number simulation in soybean

The objective of this study was to improve the simulation of node number in soybean cultivars with determinate stem habits. A nonlinear model considering two approaches to input daily air temperature data (daily mean temperature and daily minimum/maximum air temperatures) was used. The node number on the main stem data of ten soybean cultivars was collected in a three-year field experiment (from 2004/2005 to 2006/2007) at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Node number was simulated using the Soydev model, which has a nonlinear temperature response function [f(T)]. The f(T) was calculated using two methods: using daily mean air temperature calculated as the arithmetic average among daily minimum and maximum air temperatures (Soydev tmean); and calculating an f(T) using minimum air temperature and other using maximum air temperature and then averaging the two f(T)s (Soydev tmm). Root mean square error (RMSE) and deviations (simulated minus observed) were used as statistics to evaluate the performance of the two versions of Soydev. Simulations of node number in soybean were better with the Soydev tmm version, with a 0.5 to 1.4 node RMSE. Node number can be simulated for several soybean cultivars using only one set of model coefficients, with a 0.8 to 2.4 node RMSE.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

Mutations in DNAH5 account for only 15% of a non-preselected cohort of patients with primary ciliary dyskinesia.

BACKGROUND: Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is characterised by recurrent infections of the upper respiratory airways (nose, bronchi, and frontal sinuses) and randomisation of left-right body asymmetry. To date, PCD is mainly described with autosomal recessive inheritance and mutations have been found in five genes: the dynein arm protein subunits DNAI1, DNAH5 and DNAH11, the kinase TXNDC3, and the X-linked retinitis pigmentosa GTPase regulator RPGR. METHODS: We screened 89 unrelated individuals with PCD for mutations in the coding and splice site regions of the gene DNAH5 by denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC) and sequencing. Patients were mainly of European origin and were recruited without any phenotypic preselection. RESULTS: We identified 18 novel (nonsense, splicing, small deletion and missense) and six previously described mutations. Interestingly, these DNAH5 mutations were mainly associated with outer + inner dyneins arm ultrastructural defects (50%). CONCLUSION: Overall, mutations on both alleles of DNAH5 were identified in 15% of our clinically heterogeneous cohort of patients. Although genetic alterations remain to be identified in most patients, DNAH5 is to date the main PCD gene.