Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

The effect of n-3 enriched nutrition therapy on post-operative cognitive dysfunction after cardiac surgery

Background: Postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) occurs frequently after cardiac surgery. Some data suggest that inflammation plays a key role in the development of POCD. N-3 fatty acids have been shown to have a beneficial effect on inflammation. We hypothesised that perioperative n-3 enriched nutrition therapy would reduce the incidence of POCD in this group of patients. Methods: Randomized, double blind placebo controlled trial in patients aged 65 or older undergoing elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. 2x 250 mL placebo (Ensure Plus™, Abbott Nutrition) or n-3 enriched nutrition therapy (ProSure™ Abbott Nutrition) were administered for ten days starting 5 days prior to surgery. Cognition was assessed preoperatively and 7 days after surgery with the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease - Neuropsychological Assessment Battery (CERAD-NAB) [1]. Results: 16 patients were included. Mean age was 72 } 5.3 for placebo and 75 } 4.8 for ProSure™ respectively. CRP and IL-6 did not differ significantly between groups preoperatively and on postoperative days 1, 3, and 7. Preoperative CERAD total scores were 86 } 10 and 81 } 9 (p = n.s.) for Placebo and ProSure™, respectively. Postoperative scores were 88 } 12, and 77 } 19 (p = n.s.) The change in score was not different between the two groups (Placebo: +3 } 5; ProSure: -5 } 11). Conclusion: In this very small sample no effect of preoperatively started n-3 enriched nutritional supplements on inflammation or cognitive functions were detected. However, there is a large likelihood of a type II error and more patients need to be included to assess possible beneficial effects of this intervention in elderly patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery. 1 Chandler MJ, et al. Neurology. 2005;65:102-6.

Simulit, un modèle de simulation pour la planification hospitalière. [Simulit, a simulation model for hospital planning].

The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

Simulation and Analysis of Arterial Traffic Operations Along the U.S. 61 Corridor in Burlington, Iowa, 1998

The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) used the traffic simulation model CORSIM to access proposed capacity and safety improvement strategies for the U.S. 61 corridor through Burlington, Iowa. The comparison between the base and alternative models allow for evaluation of the traffic flow performance under the existing conditions as well as other design scenarios. The models also provide visualization of performance for interpretation by technical staff, public policy makers, and the public. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the use of traffic simulation models for future use by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and to develop procedures for employing simulation modeling to conduct the analysis of alternative designs. This report presents both the findings of the U.S. 61 evaluation and an overview of model development procedures. The first part of the report includes the simulation modeling development procedures. The simulation analysis is illustrated through the Burlington U.S. 61 corridor case study application. Part I is not intended to be a user manual but simply introductory guidelines for traffic simulation modeling. Part II of the report evaluates the proposed improvement concepts in a side by side comparison of the base and alternative models.

Dietary restriction affects lifespan but not cognitive aging in Drosophila melanogaster.

Summary Dietary restriction extends lifespan in a wide variety of animals, including Drosophila, but its relationship to functional and cognitive aging is unclear. Here, we study the effects of dietary yeast content on fly performance in an aversive learning task (association between odor and mechanical shock). Learning performance declined at old age, but 50-day-old dietary-restricted flies learned as poorly as equal-aged flies maintained on yeast-rich diet, even though the former lived on average 9 days (14%) longer. Furthermore, at the middle age of 21 days, flies on low-yeast diets showed poorer short-term (5 min) memory than flies on rich diet. In contrast, dietary restriction enhanced 60-min memory of young (5 days old) flies. Thus, while dietary restriction had complex effects on learning performance in young to middle-aged flies, it did not attenuate aging-related decline of aversive learning performance. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that, in Drosophila, dietary restriction reduces mortality and thus leads to lifespan extension, but does not affect the rate with which somatic damage relevant for cognitive performance accumulates with age.

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulation for the local-scale characterization of heterogeneous aquifers

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.

Surgical results in patients with chronic low back pain who failed multidisciplinary rehabilitation with cognitive intervention

Introduction¦Surgery for chronic low back pain (CLBP) is a controversial topic. One randomized controlled¦trial (RCT) showed superiority of surgery to physiotherapy only, whereas two more RCTs¦failed to show that surgery was better than multidisciplinary rehabilitation including cognitive¦intervention. The latter is therefore regarded as the golden standard of conservative¦treatment and in our unit it is whenever possible offered to patients prior to lumbar surgery¦for CLBP.¦The objective of this study was to compare results of lumbar surgery between one group of¦patients who failed to improve despite such rehabilitation and a second group of patients who¦underwent surgery following usual conservative therapies. Our hypothesis is that patients¦who failed such a comprehensive treatment would respond poorly to surgery.¦Patients and Methods¦43 patients (age 41.2±8.1 years, number of men 20) were operated between 2003 and 2009¦by a single surgeon for CLBP due to degenerative disc disease (36) or isthmic¦spondylolisthesis (7). Patients with sciatica or neurological abnormalities were excluded.¦Seventeen (40%) patients were operated having failed to improve following the¦aforementioned rehabilitation programme (Surgery following rehabilitation group) whereas¦the remaining 26 (60%) were operated having failed to improve with physiotherapy of varying¦intensity (Surgery following physiotherapy group). Oswestry disability index (ODI) pre¦operatively and at 2 years following surgery was prospectively evaluated. Fisher's exact test¦was used to compare groups.¦Results¦At two years following surgery, with an average follow up of 22 month, a 15 points ODI¦improvement was achieved for 9 (53%) patients of the surgery following rehabilitation group¦and in 15 (58%) patients of the surgery following physiotherapy group (p=1.0). A 50% ODI¦improvement was observed for 6 (35%) and 12 (46%) patients respectively (p=0.54).¦Discussion¦The main finding of this study was that surgery following failed multidisciplinary rehabilitation¦yields similar results to those of patients who only received usual physiotherapy treatment for¦CLBP prior to surgery. But surprisingly we found that it is possible with surgery to improve¦the quality of life of those CLBP sufferers who failed to respond to a comprehensive¦rehabilitation program and with a similar success rate to those reported in other series.¦But rehabilitation should still be offered as a treatment option in all CLBP patients prior to¦surgery, given that it is devoid of complications and that it will spare the need of surgery to a¦significant proportion of CLBP patients while not compromising surgical results in the¦remaining subjects who failed to improve.

Delirium and cognitive decline: more than a coincidence.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review the recent findings on the relationships between delirium and cognitive decline in the elderly. RECENT FINDINGS: Current advances in the field include substantial new evidence that delirium increases the risk of dementia in patients without previous cognitive impairment and accelerates cognitive decline in patients with Alzheimer's disease. Findings on cognitive trajectories and domains affected contribute to better understanding of the clinical nature of cognitive impairment after delirium. Volume loss and disruption of white matter integrity may represent early MRI markers for long-term cognitive impairment. Neurodegenerative and low-level chronic inflammatory processes predispose to exaggerated response to incident stimuli that may precipitate both acute brain dysfunction and persisting cerebral damage. SUMMARY: Still little is known about the relationship between delirium and cognitive trajectories in the elderly, and the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms. The association of neurodegenerative and inflammatory processes appears to play an important role in the pathogenesis and the clinical course of cognitive impairment after delirium. The hypothetical role of several other factors remains to be clarified. Further clinical studies are needed to evaluate whether prevention and treatment approaches that proved to be useful to reduce delirium incidence and severity may also improve long-term outcomes, and prevent cognitive decline.

Monte Carlo simulation of a clearance box monitor used for nuclear power plant decommissioning.

When decommissioning a nuclear facility it is important to be able to estimate activity levels of potentially radioactive samples and compare with clearance values defined by regulatory authorities. This paper presents a method of calibrating a clearance box monitor based on practical experimental measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. Adjusting the simulation for experimental data obtained using a simple point source permits the computation of absolute calibration factors for more complex geometries with an accuracy of a bit more than 20%. The uncertainty of the calibration factor can be improved to about 10% when the simulation is used relatively, in direct comparison with a measurement performed in the same geometry but with another nuclide. The simulation can also be used to validate the experimental calibration procedure when the sample is supposed to be homogeneous but the calibration factor is derived from a plate phantom. For more realistic geometries, like a small gravel dumpster, Monte Carlo simulation shows that the calibration factor obtained with a larger homogeneous phantom is correct within about 20%, if sample density is taken as the influencing parameter. Finally, simulation can be used to estimate the effect of a contamination hotspot. The research supporting this paper shows that activity could be largely underestimated in the event of a centrally-located hotspot and overestimated for a peripherally-located hotspot if the sample is assumed to be homogeneously contaminated. This demonstrates the usefulness of being able to complement experimental methods with Monte Carlo simulations in order to estimate calibration factors that cannot be directly measured because of a lack of available material or specific geometries.

Did tool-use evolve with enhanced physical cognitive abilities?

The use and manufacture of tools have been considered to be cognitively demanding and thus a possible driving factor in the evolution of intelligence. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that enhanced physical cognitive abilities evolved in conjunction with the use of tools, by comparing the performance of naturally tool-using and non-tool-using species in a suite of physical and general learning tasks. We predicted that the habitually tool-using species, New Caledonian crows and Galápagos woodpecker finches, should outperform their non-tool-using relatives, the small tree finches and the carrion crows in a physical problem but not in general learning tasks. We only found a divergence in the predicted direction for corvids. That only one of our comparisons supports the predictions under this hypothesis might be attributable to different complexities of tool-use in the two tool-using species. A critical evaluation is offered of the conceptual and methodological problems inherent in comparative studies on tool-related cognitive abilities.