Reconstructed drought history, north-central Great Basin, 1600-1982 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tree-ring chronologies, developed from cores from Pinyon pines growing on climatically sensitive sites in the north-central Great Basin, have been used to reconstruct precipitation and drought histories of the area from A.D. 1600 to 1982. Analysis of these hydrologic time series helps to place current climatic conditions into the perspective of the past 383 years (since 1600). ... The years 1934 and 1959 were the first and fourth driest while 1934 had the lowest July Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) of the reconstructed records. Nevertheless, the decade of the 1930's is only the seventh driest since 1600; the decade 1953-1962 ranks as the second driest. The driest non-overlapping decade since 1600 was 1856-1865. Interestingly, the second wettest decade was 1932-1941. An examination of 30-year mean precipitation data shows that the driest 30-year period was 1871-1900; 1931-1960 ranks as the fourth driest. The current 30-year period (1951-1980) ranks twelfth.

Initial formation of the U.S. Geological Survey hydroclimatic data network [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The U.S. Geological Survey is working to define a hydroclimatic data network. The Geological Survey collects stream discharge data at more than 7000 sites throughout the United States. Many of these stations are operated to supply information about specific activities such as flood control, irrigation projects, or hydropower generation. As a beginning, the Geological Survey will attempt to identify stations that represent natural streamflow. Several lists of stations representing "natural" streamflow have been complied in the past. While there is some overlap among these lists, a consistent compilation is preferred. The present effort is to produce one list identifying those stations having periods of record which would be suitable for mesoscale climatic analyses.

A sensitivity analysis of Southwestern climate [abstract and conclusions]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We provide here an estimate of the extent that modern climate in the southwest US is sensitive to changes in several parameters that reflect global climatic changes. For the purposes of this study, we define modern climate as mean monthly values for the months of February and August (called winter and summer, respectively) of temperature and precipitation, at points representing the average of cells of dimension 7.5' on a side. The area studied surrounds the drainage basin of Death Valley, California.

A mechanism for the link between solar-irradiance variations and regional precipitation

Although the mechanisms of climatic fluctuations are not completely understood, changes in global solar irradiance show a link with regional precipitation. A proposed mechanism for this linkage begins with absorption of varying amounts of solar energy by tropical oceans, which may aid in development of ocean temperature anomalies. These anomalies are then transported by major ocean currents to locations where the stored energy is released into the atmosphere, altering pressure and moisture patterns that can ultimately affect regional precipitation. Correlation coefficients between annual averages of monthly differences in empirically modeled solar-irradiance variations and annual state-divisional precipitation values in the United States for 1950 to 1988 were computed with lag times of 0 to 7 years. The highest correlations (R=0.65) occur in the Pacific Northwest with a lag time of 4 years, which is about equal to the travel time of water within the Pacific Gyre from the western tropical Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Alaska. With positive correlations, droughts coincide with periods of negative irradiance differences (dry, high-pressure development), and wet periods coincide with periods of positive differences (moist, low-pressure development).

Sea surface temperature and the subsequent freshwater survival rate of some salmon stocks: a surprising link between the climate of land and sea

Previous consideration of the relationship between climate and the survival rate of Pacific salmon eggs and fry has been confined to effects of large variation in the ambient freshwater environment; e.g., stream discharge, temperature, turbidity. This analysis shows sea surface temperatures during the last year of life of maturing adult salmon are also strongly associated with the subsequent survival rate of salmon eggs and fry is fresh water, presumably through development of the future eggs or sperm. In several stocks of three species of North American salmon, the association between the "marine" climate and egg survival is stronger than, or additive to, any estimated climatic association in fresh water. This apparent and surprising link between fresh water and the distant ocean has some interesting and complex implications for management of future salmon production.

滇西北地区晚更新世以来植被演替与气候变化研究

随着全球环境的变化，人们迫切的希望了解整个地球环境的变化过程、规律和未来发展的趋势。对地质历史时期发生过的环境事件的了解，能为我们研究现在的和预测未来的环境变化提供有价值的资料。 孢粉分析作为一种古环境的代用指标，在恢复古植被与古气候方面起着不可替代的作用。而精确的孢粉分析建立在对现代花粉与当地植被的关系正确的认识基础上，由此才可以更准确地提取地层中的花粉所蕴含的植被和环境信息。 云南省地理位置较特殊，地貌复杂，气候类型多样，与之对应的植物种类多样性丰富，植被类型多样。本项研究选择云南省南部和西部地区作为研究地点，采集表土、地表苔藓、蜘蛛网、树皮和树上地衣苔藓五种天然孢粉捕捉器来研究现代花粉与当地植被的关系，为认识现代花粉雨提供新的研究思路。同时，我们在滇西北选择拉市海、文海、哈里谷和属都湖这四个高原湖泊来研究晚更新世以来滇西北地区植被演替和气候变化，为云南历史时期气候变化提供新的研究资料，同时也为全面认识晚更新世以来的气候变化提供新的证据。研究结果如下： 1. 现代花粉雨与当地植被关系的研究 对云南省西北部、中部和南部采集的19个蜘蛛网样品分析得出：云南省西北部样品中共鉴定20个孢粉类型，分属于16个科;云南省中部样品中共鉴定28个类型，分属于23个科;在云南省南部勐腊县采集的样品中共鉴定28个类型，分属于25个科;在望天树北京植物园中采集的样品共鉴定38个类型，分属于34个科;在西双版纳北京植物园中采集的样品中共有11个类型，分属于10个科。结果表明：蜘蛛网样品中分析出的孢粉类型反映了云南省从南到北不同的植被类型，说明蜘蛛网可以作为一种天然孢粉捕捉器来进行现代花粉雨的研究。 同时，在云南西北部文笔水库采集的五种天然孢粉捕捉器（表土、地表苔藓、树皮、蜘蛛网、树上地衣和苔藓）进行了对比研究。结果表明：表土所得的孢粉中木本植物花粉的百分含量为90.5-96%，远大于地表苔藓（53.1-81.7%）、蜘蛛网（61.7%）、树皮（53.8%）和树上地衣、苔藓（50-53.6%）所获得的木本植物花粉的百分含量。与当地植被进行对比结果表明：这五种天然孢粉捕捉器中，表土、地表苔藓和蜘蛛网比树皮和树上地衣、苔藓能更好的反映当地的植被。 2. 滇西北地区晚更新世以来植被演替与气候变化 在过去2, 5000年左右的地质历史时期，滇西北地区植被和气候变化大致经历了以下三个发展阶段。 （1） 2, 5381 B.P—1, 9335 B.P.：属都湖地区（海拔：3620m）主要是以蓼科植物为主的草甸植被，气候寒冷湿润。 （2） 1, 9335 B.P.—1, 2426 B.P.：属都湖地区是以藜科或蒿属为主的草甸植被，气候从湿润过渡到干旱;而在海拔稍低的文海地区（海拔3080m），主要是阔叶栎林或针阔混交林，气候温凉略湿到寒冷干旱。 （3） 1, 2426 B.P.—至今：属都湖地区是以蓼科为主的草甸植被，气候仍寒冷湿润;海拔稍低的哈里谷（海拔3277m）是以松和冷杉为主的针叶林，气候冷干;文海地区的植被逐渐演替为以松和冷杉为主的针阔叶混交林，但栎属花粉的含量远高于哈里谷地区，说明当时文海的气温虽然低，却比哈里谷稍高;而海拔更低的拉市海（海拔2440m）则是以松为主的针叶林，气候比其他几个地区温暖。 在全新世气候最适宜期（约8000 B.P.以来），哈里谷是以栎和松为主的针阔混交林;文海是以松为主的针阔混交林;而拉市海是以松和蕨类植物为主。说明随着海拔的升高（从拉市海到属都湖），温度逐渐下降，植被类型也由暖性针叶林过渡到针阔混交林再到草甸。 从6000 B.P.至今，文海和哈里谷植被在这一阶段都是以松和冷杉为主的暗针叶林，少量混生一些阔叶类植物，气候变得冷湿;属都湖则仍是以蓼科为主的草甸，气候变得更加寒冷。 研究证明：滇西北地区总的气候变化趋势与全球变化规律基本一致，在1,1805—9990 B.P.期间发生新仙女木事件，在8000B.P.以来，气候变得温暖湿润，为全新世气候最适宜期。此后，气候逐渐变得接近现代。

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

Southern California's megaflood event of ca. 1605 AD linked to large-scale atmospheric forcing

A distinct, 1- to 2-cm-thick flood deposit found in Santa Barbara Basin with a varve-date of 1605 AD ± 5 years testifies to an intensity of precipitation that remains unmatched for later periods when historical or instrumental records can be compared against the varve record. The 1605 AD ± 5 event correlates well with Enzel's (1992) finding of a Silver Lake playa perennial lake at the terminus of the Mojave River (carbon-14-dated 1560 AD ± 90 years), in relative proximity to the rainfall catchment area draining into Santa Barbara Basin. According to Enzel, such a persistent flooding of the Silver Lake playa occurred only once during the last 3,500 years and required a sequence of floods, each comparable in magnitude to the largest floods in the modern record. To gain confidence in dating of the 1605 AD ± 5 event, we compare Southern California's sedimentary evidence against historical reports and multi-proxy time-series that indicate unusual climatic events or are sensitive to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The emerging pattern supports previous suggestions that the first decade of the 17th century was marked by a rapid cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, with some indications for global coverage. A burst of volcanism and the occurrence of El Nino seem to have contributed to the severity of the events. The synopsis of the 1605 AD ± 5 years flood deposit in Santa Barbara Basin, the substantial freshwater body at Silver Lake playa, and much additional paleoclimatic, global evidence testifies for an equatorward shift of global wind patterns as the world experienced an interval of rapid, intense, and widespread cooling.

Climate impacts on U. S. living marine resources: National Marine Fisheries Services concerns, activities and needs

With the increasing recognition that climate change is occurring and having large impacts on living marine resources, a sound ecosystem approach to management of those resources requires both understanding how climate affects ecosystems and integration of that understanding into management processes. The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) must identify how changing climatic conditions will impact its mission and must be prepared to adapt to these changes. This document identifies the climate related ecosystem concerns in the regional marine ecosystems for which NMFS has living marine resource management responsibilities, what NMFS is currently doing to address these concerns, what NMFS must do going forward to address these concerns, and what climate information is needed to integrate climate into resource management. The regional ecosystems included in this analysis are: the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf; the Southeast U.S. Continental Shelf, Gulf of Mexico, and U.S. Caribbean; the California Current Ecosystem; the Alaskan Ecosystem Complex; the Pacific Island Ecosystem Complex; the Eastern Tropical Pacific; North Pacific Highly Migratory Species; and the Antarctic.

The effect of intensive line fishing on the virgin biomass of a tropical deepwater snapper, the crimson jobfish (Pristipomoides filamentosus)

An intensive commercial hook-and-line fishing operation targeted the demersal fisheries resources at Saya de Malha Bank in the Southwest Indian Ocean. Fishing was conducted with 12 dories that were equipped with echo sounders and electric fishing reels and supported by a refrigerated mothership. Over a 13-day period in the 55–130 m depth range, a total of 74.3 metric tons (t) of fish were caught, of which the crimson jobfish (Pristipomoides filamentosus) represented 80%. Catch rates decreased with time and could not be attributed to changes in location, climatic conditions, fishing depth, fishing method, or bait type. The initial virgin biomass of P. filamentosus available to a line fishery at the North Western promontory of Saya de Malha Bank was estimated at 72.6 t through application of the Leslie model to daily catch and effort data. Biomass densities of 2364 kg/km2 and 1206 kg/km were obtained by applying the initial biomass estimates to the surface area and to the length of the dropoff that was fished. The potential sustainable yield prior to exploitation was estimated at 567 kg/km2 per year. The quantity of P. filamentosus caught by the mother-ship-dory fishing operation represented 82% of the initial biomass available to a hook-and-line fishery, equivalent to more that three times the estimated maximum sustainable yield. The results of the study are important to fisheries managers because they demonstrate that intensive line fishing operations have the potential to rapidly deplete demersal fisheries resources.