Repetitive Deliberate Fires: Critical Review of the Situation and Proposal of a Follow-Up Process and Systematic Analysis

Deliberate fires appear to be borderless and timeless events creating a serious security problem. There have been many attempts to develop approaches to tackle this problem, but unfortunately acting effectively against deliberate fires has proven a complex challenge. This article reviews the current situation relating to deliberate fires: what do we know, how serious is the situation, how is it being dealt with, and what challenges are faced when developing a systematic and global methodology to tackle the issues? The repetitive nature of some types of deliberate fires will also be discussed. Finally, drawing on the reality of repetition within deliberate fires and encouraged by successes obtained in previous repetitive crimes (such as property crimes or drug trafficking), we will argue that the use of the intelligence process cycle as a framework to allow a follow-up and systematic analysis of fire events is a relevant approach. This is the first article of a series of three articles. This first part is introducing the context and discussing the background issues in order to provide a better underpinning knowledge to managers and policy makers planning on tackling this issue. The second part will present a methodology developed to detect and identify repetitive fire events from a set of data, and the third part will discuss the analyses of these data to produce intelligence.

Identifying Pertinent Variables for Nonresponse Follow-Up Surveys : Lessons Learned from 4 Cases in Switzerland

All social surveys suffer from different types of errors, of which one of the most studied is non-response bias. Non-response bias is a systematic error that occurs because individuals differ in their accessibility and propensity to participate in a survey according to their own characteristics as well as those from the survey itself. The extent of the problem heavily depends on the correlation between response mechanisms and key survey variables. However, non-response bias is difficult to measure or to correct for due to the lack of relevant data about the whole target population or sample. In this paper, non-response follow-up surveys are considered as a possible source of information about non-respondents. Non-response follow-ups, however, suffer from two methodological issues: they themselves operate through a response mechanism that can cause potential non-response bias, and they pose a problem of comparability of measure, mostly because the survey design differs between main survey and non-response follow-up. In order to detect possible bias, the survey variables included in non-response surveys have to be related to the mechanism of participation, but not be sensitive to measurement effects due to the different designs. Based on accumulated experience of four similar non-response follow-ups, we studied the survey variables that fulfill these conditions. We differentiated socio-demographic variables that are measurement-invariant but have a lower correlation with non-response and variables that measure attitudes, such as trust, social participation, or integration in the public sphere, which are more sensitive to measurement effects but potentially more appropriate to account for the non-response mechanism. Our results show that education level, work status, and living alone, as well as political interest, satisfaction with democracy, and trust in institutions are pertinent variables to include in non-response follow-ups of general social surveys. - See more at: https://ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/view/6138#sthash.u87EeaNG.dpuf

3,4-Methylenedioxy-methamphetamine induces in vivo regional up-regulation of central nicotinic receptors in rats and potentiates the regulatory effects of nicotine on these receptors

Nicotine (NIC), the main psychostimulant compound of smoked tobacco, exerts its effects through activation of central nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChR), which become up-regulated after chronic administration. Recent work has demonstrated that the recreational drug 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) has affinity for nAChR and also induces up-regulation of nAChR in PC 12 cells. Tobacco and MDMA are often consumed together. In the present work we studied the in vivo effect of a classic chronic dosing schedule of MDMA in rats, alone or combined with a chronic schedule of NIC, on the density of nAChR and on serotonin reuptake transporters. MDMA induced significant decreases in [3H]paroxetine binding in the cortex and hippocampus measured 24 h after the last dose and these decreases were not modified by the association with NIC. In the prefrontal cortex, NIC and MDMA each induced significant increases in [3H]epibatidine binding (29.5 and 34.6%, respectively) with respect to saline-treated rats, and these increases were significantly potentiated (up to 72.1%) when the two drugs were associated. Also in this area, [3H]methyllycaconitine binding was increased a 42.1% with NIC + MDMA but not when they were given alone. In the hippocampus, MDMA potentiated the a7 regulatory effects of NIC (raising a 25.5% increase to 52.5%) but alone was devoid of effect. MDMA had no effect on heteromeric nAChR in striatum and a coronal section of the midbrain containing superior colliculi, geniculate nuclei, substantia nigra and ventral tegmental area. Specific immunoprecipitation of solubilised receptors suggests that the up-regulated heteromeric nAChRs contain a4 and b2 subunits. Western blots with specific a4 and a7 antibodies showed no significant differences between the groups, indicating that, as reported for nicotine, up-regulation caused by MDMA is due to post-translational events rather than increased receptor synthesis.

Low-fat dairy products and blood pressure: follow-up of 2290 older persons at high cardiovascular risk participating in the PREDIMED study

High blood pressure (BP) has been ranked as the most important risk factor worldwide regarding attributable deaths. Dietary habits are major determinants of BP. Among them, frequent intake of low-fat dairy products may protect against hypertension. Our aim was to assess the relationship between low-fat dairy product intake and BP levels and their changes after 12 month follow-up in a cohort of asymptomatic older persons at high cardiovascular risk recruited into a large-scale trial assessing the effects of Mediterranean diets on cardiovascular outcomes. Data from 2290 participants, including 1845 with hypertension, were available for analyses. Dairy products were not a specific part of the intervention; thus, data were analysed as an observational cohort. Dietary information was collected with validated semi-quantitative FFQ and trained personnel measured BP. To assess BP changes, we undertook cross-sectional analyses at baseline and at the end of follow-up and longitudinal analyses. A statistically significant inverse association between low-fat dairy product intake and systolic BP was observed for the 12-month longitudinal analysis. In the longitudinal analysis, the adjusted systolic and diastolic BP were significantly lower in the highest quintile of low-fat dairy product intake ( 2 4·2 (95% CI 2 6·9, 2 1·4) and 2 1·8 (95% CI 2 3·2, 2 0·4) mmHg respectively), whereas the point estimates for the difference in diastolic BP indicated a modest non-significant inverse association. Intake of low-fat dairy products was inversely associated with BP in an older population at high cardiovascular risk, suggesting a possible protective effect against hypertension.

A single-blind, randomised controlled trial on the effects of lithium and quetiapine monotherapy on the trajectory of cognitive functioning in first episode mania: A 12-month follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive deficits have been reported during the early stages of bipolar disorder; however, the role of medication on such deficits remains unclear. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of lithium and quetiapine monotherapy on cognitive performance in people following first episode mania. METHODS: The design was a single-blind, randomised controlled trial on a cohort of 61 participants following first episode mania. Participants received either lithium or quetiapine monotherapy as maintenance treatment over a 12-month follow-up period. The groups were compared on performance outcomes using an extensive cognitive assessment battery conducted at baseline, month 3 and month 12 follow-up time-points. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between group and time in phonemic fluency at the 3-month and 12-month endpoints, reflecting greater improvements in performance in lithium-treated participants relative to quetiapine-treated participants. After controlling for multiple comparisons, there were no other significant interactions between group and time for other measures of cognition. CONCLUSION: Although the effects of lithium and quetiapine treatment were similar for most cognitive domains, the findings imply that early initiation of lithium treatment may benefit the trajectory of cognition, specifically verbal fluency in young people with bipolar disorder. Given that cognition is a major symptomatic domain of bipolar disorder and has substantive effects on general functioning, the ability to influence the trajectory of cognitive change is of considerable clinical importance.

People favour imperfect catching by assuming a stable world

The visual angle that is projected by an object (e.g. a ball) on the retina depends on the object's size and distance. Without further information, however, the visual angle is ambiguous with respect to size and distance, because equal visual angles can be obtained from a big ball at a longer distance and a smaller one at a correspondingly shorter distance. Failure to recover the true 3D structure of the object (e.g. a ball's physical size) causing the ambiguous retinal image can lead to a timing error when catching the ball. Two opposing views are currently prevailing on how people resolve this ambiguity when estimating time to contact. One explanation challenges any inference about what causes the retinal image (i.e. the necessity to recover this 3D structure), and instead favors a direct analysis of optic flow. In contrast, the second view suggests that action timing could be rather based on obtaining an estimate of the 3D structure of the scene. With the latter, systematic errors will be predicted if our inference of the 3D structure fails to reveal the underlying cause of the retinal image. Here we show that hand closure in catching virtual balls is triggered by visual angle, using an assumption of a constant ball size. As a consequence of this assumption, hand closure starts when the ball is at similar distance across trials. From that distance on, the remaining arrival time, therefore, depends on ball's speed. In order to time the catch successfully, closing time was coupled with ball's speed during the motor phase. This strategy led to an increased precision in catching but at the cost of committing systematic errors.

The updated Swiss guidelines 2016 for the treatment and follow-up of cutaneous melanoma.

Cutaneous melanoma is the most deadly cutaneous neoplasm. In order to guide treatment decisions and follow-up of melanoma patients, guidelines for the management of melanoma in Switzerland were inaugurated in 2001 and revised in 2006 and 2016. Recent data on surgical and medical treatments from randomised trials necessitated modification of the treatment and follow-up recommendations.

Chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetic patients followed-up by primary care physicians in Switzerland: prevalence and prescription of antidiabetic drugs.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among type 2 diabetic patients in primary care settings in Switzerland, and to analyse the prescription of antidiabetic drugs in CKD according to the prevailing recommendations. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, each participating physician was asked to introduce anonymously in a web database the data from up to 15 consecutive diabetic patients attending her/his office between December 2013 and June 2014. Demographic, clinical and biochemical data were analysed. CKD was classified with the KDIGO nomenclature based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 patients (mean age 66.5 ± 12.4 years) were included by 109 primary care physicians. CKD stages 3a, 3b and 4 were present in 13.9%, 6.1%, and 2.4% of patients, respectively. Only 30.6% of patients had an entry for urinary albumin/creatinine ratio. Among them, 35.6% were in CKD stage A2, and 4.1% in stage A3. Despite prevailing limitations, metformin and sulfonylureas were prescribed in 53.9% and 16.5%, respectively, of patients with advanced CKD (eGFR <30 ml/min). More than a third of patients were on a dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 inhibitor across all CKD stages. Insulin use increased progressively from 26.8% in CKD stage 1-2 to 50% in stage 4. CONCLUSIONS: CKD is frequent in patients with type 2 diabetes attending Swiss primary care practices, with CKD stage 3 and 4 affecting 22.4% of cases. This emphasizes the importance of routine screening of diabetic nephropathy based on both eGFR and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, the latter being largely underused by primary care physicians. A careful individual drug risk/benefit balance assessment is mandatory to avoid the frequently observed inappropriate prescription of antidiabetic drugs in CKD patients.

Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.