Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Print-capture PCR for detection of tomato begomoviruses from plants and whiteflies

Print-capture (PC) Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was evaluated as a novel detection method of plant viruses. Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum) plants infected with begomovirus (fam. Geminiviridae, gen. Begomovirus) and viruliferous whiteflies were used to study the efficiency of the method. Print-capturing steps were carried out using non-charged nylon membrane or filter paper as the solid support for DNA printings. Amplified DNA fragments of expected size were consistently obtained by PCR from infected plants grown in a greenhouse, after direct application of printed materials to the PCR mix. However, virus detection from a single whitefly and from field-grown tomato samples required a high temperature treatment of printed material prior to PCR amplification. Comparison of nylon membrane and filter paper as the solid support revealed the higher efficiency of the nylon membrane. The application of print-capture PCR reduces the chances of false-positive amplification by reducing manipulation steps during preparation of the target DNA. This method maintains all the advantages of PCR diagnosis, such as the high sensitivity and no requirement of radioactive reagents.

Small and Large Scale Dynamics in the Milky Way

This thesis contains dynamical analysis on four different scales: the Solar system, the Sun itself, the Solar neighbourhood, and the central region of the Milky Way galaxy. All of these topics have been handled through methods of potential theory and statistics. The central topic of the thesis is the orbits of stars in the Milky Way. An introduction into the general structure of the Milky Way is presented, with an emphasis on the evolution of the observed value for the scale-length of the Milky Way disc and the observations of two separate bars in the Milky Way. The basics of potential theory are also presented, as well as a developed potential model for the Milky Way. An implementation of the backwards restricted integration method is shown, rounding off the basic principles used in the dynamical studies of this thesis. The thesis looks at the orbit of the Sun, and its impact on the Oort cloud comets (Paper IV), showing that there is a clear link between these two dynamical systems. The statistical atypicalness of the orbit of the Sun is questioned (Paper I), concluding that there is some statistical typicalness to the orbit of the Sun, although it is not very significant. This does depend slightly on whether one includes a bar, or not, as a bar has a clear effect on the dynamical features seen in the Solar neighbourhood (Paper III). This method can be used to find the possible properties of a bar. Finally, we look at the effect of a bar on a statistical system in the Milky Way, seeing that there are not only interesting effects depending on the mass and size of the bar, but also how bars can capture disc stars (Paper II).

Model based study of a calcium oxide looping process for post-combustion carbon dioxide capture

Calcium oxide looping is a carbon dioxide sequestration technique that utilizes the partially reversible reaction between limestone and carbon dioxide in two interconnected fluidised beds, carbonator and calciner. Flue gases from a combustor are fed into the carbonator where calcium oxide reacts with carbon dioxide within the gases at a temperature of 650 ºC. Calcium oxide is transformed into calcium carbonate which is circulated into the regenerative calciner, where calcium carbonate is returned into calcium oxide and a stream of pure carbon dioxide at a higher temperature of 950 ºC. Calcium oxide looping has proved to have a low impact on the overall process efficiency and would be easily retrofitted into existing power plants. This master’s thesis is done in participation to an EU funded project CaOling as a part of the Lappeenranta University of Technology deliverable, reactor modelling and scale-up tools. Thesis concentrates in creating the first model frame and finding the physically relevant phenomena governing the process.

Evaluation of group electronegativities and hardness (softness) of group 14 elements and containing functional groups through density functional theory and correlation with NMR spectra data

Quantum Chemical calculations for group 14 elements of Periodic Table (C, Si, Ge, Sn, Pb) and their functional groups have been carried out using Density Functional Theory (DFT) based reactivity descriptors such as group electronegativities, hardness and softness. DFT calculations were performed for a large series of tetracoordinated Sn compounds of the CH3SnRR'X type, where X is a halogen and R and R' are alkyl, halogenated alkyl, alkoxy, or alkyl thio groups. The results were interpreted in terms of calculated electronegativity and hardness of the SnRR'X groups, applying a methodology previously developed by Geerlings and coworkers (J. Phys. Chem. 1993, 97, 1826). These calculations allowed to see the regularities concerning the influence of the nature of organic groups RR' and inorganic group X on electronegativities and hardness of the SnRR'X groups; in this case, it was found a very good correlation between the electronegativity of the fragment and experimental 119Sn chemical shifts, a property that sensitively reflects the change in the valence electronic structure of molecules. This work was complemented with the study of some compounds of the EX and ER types, where E= C, Si, Ge, Sn and R= CH3, H, which was performed to study the influence that the central atom has on the electronegativity and hardness of molecules, or whether these properties are mainly affected for the type of ligand bound to the central atom. All these calculations were performed using the B3PW91 functional together with the 6-311++G** basis set level for H, C, Si, Ge, F, Cl and Br atoms and the 3-21G for Sn and I atoms.

Leibniz's theory of bodies: monadic aggregates, phenomena, or both?

Leibniz's conception of bodies seems to be a puzzling theory. Bodies are seen as aggregates of monads and as wellfounded phenomena. This has initiated controversy and unending discussions. The paper attempts to resolve the apparent inconsistencies by a new and formally spirited reconstruction of Leibniz's theory of monads and perception, on the one hand, and a (re-)formulation and precisation of his concept of preestablished harmony, on the other hand. Preestablished harmony is modelled basically as a covariation between the monadic and the ideal realm.

Benjamin's conception of language and Adorno's aesthetic theory

According to the theory of language of the young Benjamin, the primary task of language isn't the communication of contents, but to express itself as a "spiritual essence" in which also men take part. That conception according to which language would be a medium to signification of something outside it leads to a necessary decrease of its original strength and is thus denominated by Benjamin bürgerlich. The names of human language are remainders of an archaic state, in which things weren't yet mute and had their own language. Benjamin suggests also that all the arts remind the original language of things, as they make objects "speak" in form of sounds, colors, shapes etc. That relationship between arts as reminders of the "language of things" and the possible reconciliation of mankind with itself and with nature has been developed by Theodor Adorno in several of his writings, specially in the Aesthetic Theory, where the artwork is ultimately conceived as a construct pervaded by "language" in the widest meaning - not in the "bourgeois" sense.

THE FORMAL AND THE FORMALIZED: THE CASES OF SYLLOGISTIC AND SUPPOSITION THEORY

As a discipline, logic is arguably constituted of two main sub-projects: formal theories of argument validity on the basis of a small number of patterns, and theories of how to reduce the multiplicity of arguments in non-logical, informal contexts to the small number of patterns whose validity is systematically studied (i.e. theories of formalization). Regrettably, we now tend to view logic 'proper' exclusively as what falls under the first sub-project, to the neglect of the second, equally important sub-project. In this paper, I discuss two historical theories of argument formalization: Aristotle's syllogistic theory as presented in the "Prior Analytics", and medieval theories of supposition. They both illustrate this two-fold nature of logic, containing in particular illuminating reflections on how to formalize arguments (i.e. the second sub-project). In both cases, the formal methods employed differ from the usual modern technique of translating an argument in ordinary language into a specially designed symbolism, a formal language. The upshot is thus a plea for a broader conceptualization of what it means to formalize.

Rebuilding Defenses: Explorations in Norman Fairclough’s Theory of Critical Discourse Analysis

Tutkielmassa eritellään Norman Faircloughin kriittisen diskurssianalyysin teoriaa ja siihen kohdistettua kritiikkiä. Pyrkimyksenä on sovittaa näitä erilaisia näkemyksiä keskenään ja tarjota ratkaisuja yhteen kiriittisen diskurssianalyysin keskeiseen ongelmaan eli emansipaation (sosiaalisten epäkohtien tunnistamisen ja ratkaisemisen) puutteellisuuteen. Teoriaosuudesta esiin nousevia mahdollisuuksia sovelletaan tekstianalyysiin. Tutkimuksen kohteena on teksti Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century ja jossain määrin sen tuottanut järjestö Project for the New American Century. Näitä tarkastellaan ennen kaikkea sosiaalisina ilmiöinä ja suhteessa toisiinsa. Faircloughin mallin suurimmiksi ongelmiksi muodostuvat perinteinen käsitys kielestä, jonka mukaan kielen järjestelmän abstraktit ja sisäiset suhteet ovat tärkeimpiä, sekä ideologinen vastakkainasettelu kritiikin lähtökohtana. Ensimmäinen johtaa kielellisten tutkimustulosten epätyydyttävään kykyyn selittää sosiaalisia havaintoja ja jälkimmäinen poliittiseen tai maailmankatsomukselliseen väittelyyn, joka ei mahdollista uusia näkemyksiä. Tutkielman lopputulema on, että keskittymällä asiasisältöön kielen rakenteen sijasta ja ymmärtämällä tekstin tuottaja yksittäisenä, rajattuna sosiaalisena toimijana voidaan analyysiin saada avoimuutta ja täsmällisyyttä. Kriittiinen diskurssianalyysi kaipaa tällaista näkemystä kielellisten analyysien tueksi ja uudenlaisen relevanssin löytääkseen.

Remarks on abstract Galois theory

This paper is a historical companion to a previous one, in which it was studied the so-called abstract Galois theory as formulated by the Portuguese mathematician José Sebastião e Silva (see da Costa, Rodrigues (2007)). Our purpose is to present some applications of abstract Galois theory to higher-order model theory, to discuss Silva's notion of expressibility and to outline a classical Galois theory that can be obtained inside the two versions of the abstract theory, those of Mark Krasner and of Silva. Some comments are made on the universal theory of (set-theoretic) structures.

The relation between the general maxim of causality and the principle of uniformity in hume's theory of knowledge

ABSTRACT When Hume, in the Treatise on Human Nature, began his examination of the relation of cause and effect, in particular, of the idea of necessary connection which is its essential constituent, he identified two preliminary questions that should guide his research: (1) For what reason we pronounce it necessary that every thing whose existence has a beginning should also have a cause and (2) Why we conclude that such particular causes must necessarily have such particular effects? (1.3.2, 14-15) Hume observes that our belief in these principles can result neither from an intuitive grasp of their truth nor from a reasoning that could establish them by demonstrative means. In particular, with respect to the first, Hume examines and rejects some arguments with which Locke, Hobbes and Clarke tried to demonstrate it, and suggests, by exclusion, that the belief that we place on it can only come from experience. Somewhat surprisingly, however, Hume does not proceed to show how that derivation of experience could be made, but proposes instead to move directly to an examination of the second principle, saying that, "perhaps, be found in the end, that the same answer will serve for both questions" (1.3.3, 9). Hume's answer to the second question is well known, but the first question is never answered in the rest of the Treatise, and it is even doubtful that it could be, which would explain why Hume has simply chosen to remove any mention of it when he recompiled his theses on causation in the Enquiry concerning Human Understanding. Given this situation, an interesting question that naturally arises is to investigate the relations of logical or conceptual implication between these two principles. Hume seems to have thought that an answer to (2) would also be sufficient to provide an answer to (1). Henry Allison, in his turn, argued (in Custom and Reason in Hume, p. 94-97) that the two questions are logically independent. My proposal here is to try to show that there is indeed a logical dependency between them, but the implication is, rather, from (1) to (2). If accepted, this result may be particularly interesting for an interpretation of the scope of the so-called "Kant's reply to Hume" in the Second Analogy of Experience, which is structured as a proof of the a priori character of (1), but whose implications for (2) remain controversial.

The notion of process in nonstandard theory and in Whiteheadian metaphysics

In this article I intend to show that certain aspects of A.N. Whitehead's philosophy of organism and especially his epochal theory of time, as mainly exposed in his well-known work Process and Reality, can serve in clarify the underlying assumptions that shape nonstandard mathematical theories as such and also as metatheories of quantum mechanics. Concerning the latter issue, I point to an already significant research on nonstandard versions of quantum mechanics; two of these approaches are chosen to be critically presented in relation to the scope of this work. The main point of the paper is that, insofar as we can refer a nonstandard mathematical entity to a kind of axiomatical formalization essentially 'codifying' an underlying mental process indescribable as such by analytic means, we can possibly apply certain principles of Whitehead's metaphysical scheme focused on the key notion of process which is generally conceived as the becoming of actual entities. This is done in the sense of a unifying approach to provide an interpretation of nonstandard mathematical theories as such and also, in their metatheoretical status, as a formalization of the empirical-experimental context of quantum mechanics.

Experiences in using a structured method in finding and defining new innovations: the strategic options approach

Investment decision-making on far-reaching innovation ideas is one of the key challenges practitioners and academics face in the field of innovation management. However, the management practices and theories strongly rely on evaluation systems that do not fit in well with this setting. These systems and practices normally cannot capture the value of future opportunities under high uncertainty because they ignore the firm’s potential for growth and flexibility. Real options theory and options-based methods have been offered as a solution to facilitate decision-making on highly uncertain investment objects. Much of the uncertainty inherent in these investment objects is attributable to unknown future events. In this setting, real options theory and methods have faced some challenges. First, the theory and its applications have largely been limited to market-priced real assets. Second, the options perspective has not proved as useful as anticipated because the tools it offers are perceived to be too complicated for managerial use. Third, there are challenges related to the type of uncertainty existing real options methods can handle: they are primarily limited to parametric uncertainty. Nevertheless, the theory is considered promising in the context of far-reaching and strategically important innovation ideas. The objective of this dissertation is to clarify the potential of options-based methodology in the identification of innovation opportunities. The constructive research approach gives new insights into the development potential of real options theory under non-parametric and closeto- radical uncertainty. The distinction between real options and strategic options is presented as an explanans for the discovered limitations of the theory. The findings offer managers a new means of assessing future innovation ideas based on the frameworks constructed during the course of the study.

Charge transport in disordered materials : simulations, theory, and numerical modeling of hopping transport and electron-hole recombination

Min avhandling behandlar hur oordnade material leder elektrisk ström. Bland materialen som studeras finns ledande polymerer, d.v.s. plaster som leder ström, och mer allmänt organiska halvledare. Av de här materialen har man kunnat bygga elektroniska komponenter, och man hoppas på att kunna trycka hela kretsar av organiska material. För de här tillämpningarna är det viktigt att förstå hur materialen själva leder elektrisk ström. Termen oordnade material syftar på material som saknar kristallstruktur. Oordningen gör att elektronernas tillstånd blir lokaliserade i rummet, så att en elektron i ett visst tillstånd är begränsad t.ex. till en molekyl eller ett segment av en polymer. Det här kan jämföras med kristallina material, där ett elektrontillstånd är utspritt över hela kristallen (men i stället har en väldefinierad rörelsemängd). Elektronerna (eller hålen) i det oordnade materialet kan röra sig genom att tunnelera mellan de lokaliserade tillstånden. Utgående från egenskaperna för den här tunneleringsprocessen, kan man bestämma transportegenskaperna för hela materialet. Det här är utgångspunkten för den så kallade hopptransportmodellen, som jag har använt mig av. Hopptransportmodellen innehåller flera drastiska förenklingar. Till exempel betraktas elektrontillstånden som punktformiga, så att tunneleringssannolikheten mellan två tillstånd endast beror på avståndet mellan dem, och inte på deras relativa orientation. En annan förenkling är att behandla det kvantmekaniska tunneleringsproblemet som en klassisk process, en slumpvandring. Trots de här grova approximationerna visar hopptransportmodellen ändå många av de fenomen som uppträder i de verkliga materialen som man vill modellera. Man kan kanske säga att hopptransportmodellen är den enklaste modell för oordnade material som fortfarande är intressant att studera. Man har inte hittat exakta analytiska lösningar för hopptransportmodellen, därför använder man approximationer och numeriska metoder, ofta i form av datorberäkningar. Vi har använt både analytiska metoder och numeriska beräkningar för att studera olika aspekter av hopptransportmodellen. En viktig del av artiklarna som min avhandling baserar sig på är att jämföra analytiska och numeriska resultat. Min andel av arbetet har främst varit att utveckla de numeriska metoderna och applicera dem på hopptransportmodellen. Därför fokuserar jag på den här delen av arbetet i avhandlingens introduktionsdel. Ett sätt att studera hopptransportmodellen numeriskt är att direkt utföra en slumpvandringsprocess med ett datorprogram. Genom att föra statisik över slumpvandringen kan man beräkna olika transportegenskaper i modellen. Det här är en så kallad Monte Carlo-metod, eftersom själva beräkningen är en slumpmässig process. I stället för att följa rörelsebanan för enskilda elektroner, kan man beräkna sannolikheten vid jämvikt för att hitta en elektron i olika tillstånd. Man ställer upp ett system av ekvationer, som relaterar sannolikheterna för att hitta elektronen i olika tillstånd i systemet med flödet, strömmen, mellan de olika tillstånden. Genom att lösa ekvationssystemet fås sannolikhetsfördelningen för elektronerna. Från sannolikhetsfördelningen kan sedan strömmen och materialets transportegenskaper beräknas. En aspekt av hopptransportmodellen som vi studerat är elektronernas diffusion, d.v.s. deras slumpmässiga rörelse. Om man betraktar en samling elektroner, så sprider den med tiden ut sig över ett större område. Det är känt att diffusionshastigheten beror av elfältet, så att elektronerna sprider sig fortare om de påverkas av ett elektriskt fält. Vi har undersökt den här processen, och visat att beteendet är väldigt olika i endimensionella system, jämfört med två- och tredimensionella. I två och tre dimensioner beror diffusionskoefficienten kvadratiskt av elfältet, medan beroendet i en dimension är linjärt. En annan aspekt vi studerat är negativ differentiell konduktivitet, d.v.s. att strömmen i ett material minskar då man ökar spänningen över det. Eftersom det här fenomenet har uppmätts i organiska minnesceller, ville vi undersöka om fenomenet också kan uppstå i hopptransportmodellen. Det visade sig att det i modellen finns två olika mekanismer som kan ge upphov till negativ differentiell konduktivitet. Dels kan elektronerna fastna i fällor, återvändsgränder i systemet, som är sådana att det är svårare att ta sig ur dem då elfältet är stort. Då kan elektronernas medelhastighet och därmed strömmen i materialet minska med ökande elfält. Elektrisk växelverkan mellan elektronerna kan också leda till samma beteende, genom en så kallad coulombblockad. En coulombblockad kan uppstå om antalet ledningselektroner i materialet ökar med ökande spänning. Elektronerna repellerar varandra och ett större antal elektroner kan leda till att transporten blir långsammare, d.v.s. att strömmen minskar.