Estudo da dinâmica climática e sua influência na qualidade da água de reservatórios urbanos

The present study sought to develop a methodology to analyze the water quality based on concepts and methods of climate and climatology respectively. In this way, it was tried to relate techniques and methodologies hydro and limno-meteorological with a rhythmic analysis technique developed within the Brazilian geographical climatology to assess and analyze the blooms of cyanobacteria, the main index of water quality found in reservoirs of “Alto Tietê” Basin and consequently the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, an area of high environmental complexity due to its high degree of development and high population density. The meteorological data used to develop the study were collected from the meteorological station of the IAG / USP and the limnological data were collected from the Hydrological Monitoring System implemented by SABESP in Billings and Guarapiranga reservoirs as well as data laboratory of the same entity. The results obtained by the rhythmic and integrated analyze showed that the process of blooms of cyanobacteria is dependent not only on one specific factor, but a combination of meteorological factors that may disrupt the stability of reservoir and which can, during the stabilization process, provides the necessary conditions to the development of cyanobacteria. It was also shown by the results that the pace of Atlantic Polar Front Entrance during the winter in São Paulo, is a limiting factor to the growth of cyanobacteria due to their high frequency, keeping the reservoir balance throughout the period. Furthermore, another importance of this study is the possibility of prevention and forecasting periods which are inappropriate for the use of these reservoirs mainly for recreational activities

Raia Divisória ou Raia Socioambiental?: uma redefinição baseada na análise da paisagem através do sistema GTP

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Eventos climáticos e suas consequências em Franca - SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Dinâmica pluvial e turismo em Corumbataí - SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Ritmo das chuvas na Bacia do Pardo (SP/MG): reflexos na vazão dos rios Pardo e Mogi-Guaçu

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The climatic rhythm and blooms of cyanobacteria in a tropical reservoir in São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

NDVI and vegetation phenology dynamics under the influence of sunshine duration on the Tibetan plateau

Climate change has significantly influenced vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Past research mainly focused on vegetation responses to temperature variation and water stress, but the influence of sunshine duration on NDVI and vegetation phenology on the TP is not well understood. In this study, NDVI time series from 1982-2008 were used to retrieve spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics on the TP. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was conducted to understand the spatiotemporal variations of NDVI. The Start of Season (SOS) was estimated from NDVI time series with a local threshold method. The first EOF, accounting for 35.1% of NDVI variations on the TP, indicates that NDVI variations are larger in areas with shorter sunshine duration. The needle-leaved forest and shrub in the southeastern TP are more sensitive to sunshine duration anomalies (p < 0.01) than broad-leaved forest, steppe, and meadow due to spatial and altitudinal distribution of sunshine duration and vegetation types. The decrease in sunshine duration for the growing season on the TP has resulted in a decreased NDVI trend in some areas of southeastern TP (p ranging from 0.32-0.05 with threshold ranging from 0.05 to 0.25) in spite of the overall NDVI increase. SOS dynamics in most parts of the TP were mainly related to temperature variability, with precipitation and sunshine duration playing a role in a few regions. This study enhances our understanding of vegetation responses to climatic change on the TP.

Spatial intra-annual variability of precipitation based on geostatistics. a case study for the Paraiba do Sul Basin, southeastern Brazil

The emphasis in this research is to evaluate the spatial distribution of the precipitation using a geostatistics approach. Seasonal time scales records considering DJF, MAM, JJA e SON periods performed the analysis. Procedures to evaluate the variogram selection and to produce kriging maps were performed in a GIS environment (ArcGIS®). The results showed that kriging method was very suitable to detect both large changes in the whole area as those local small and subtle changes. Kriging demonstrated be a powerful statistical interpolation method that might be very useful in regions with great complexity in climatology and geomorphology.

Statistical detection of spurious variations in daily raingauge data caused by changes in observation practices, as applied to records from various parts of the world

In the instrumental records of daily precipitation, we often encounter one or more periods in which values below some threshold were not registered. Such periods, besides lacking small values, also have a large number of dry days. Their cumulative distribution function is shifted to the right in relation to that for other portions of the record having more reliable observations. Such problems are examined in this work, based mostly on the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, where the portion of the series with more number of dry days is compared with the portion with less number of dry days. Another relatively common problem in daily rainfall data is the prevalence of integers either throughout the period of record or in some part of it, likely resulting from truncation during data compilation prior to archiving or by coarse rounding of daily readings by observers. This problem is identified by simple calculation of the proportion of integers in the series, taking the expected proportion as 10%. The above two procedures were applied to the daily rainfall data sets from the European Climate Assessment (ECA), Southeast Asian Climate Assessment (SACA), and Brazilian Water Resources Agency (BRA). Taking the statistic D of the KS test >0.15 and the corresponding p-value <0.001 as the condition to classify a given series as suspicious, the proportions of the ECA, SACA, and BRA series falling into this category are, respectively, 34.5%, 54.3%, and 62.5%. With relation to coarse rounding problem, the proportions of series exceeding twice the 10% reference level are 3%, 60%, and 43% for the ECA, SACA, and BRA data sets, respectively. A simple way to visualize the two problems addressed here is by plotting the time series of daily rainfall for a limited range, for instance, 0–10 mm day−1.

Climatologia de tempestades na área central do Estado de São Paulo usando radar meteorológico

A climatological characterization of storm properties during two summer seasons, viz. 1998-1999 and 1999-2000, based on observations from the Bauru S-band Doppler radar, was obtained from the TITAN Software of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, Co), implemented at IPMet. Parameters, such as mean volume, mean area, mean and maximum echo tops, mean and maximum reflectivity, as well as speed and direction of precipitating systems were determined using the reflectivity >25, 30 and 40 dBZ and a volume >30 km3 as thresholds for storm identification. For the first time, the spatial distributions of these parameters were determined in the central State of São Paulo, based on radar observations. It was found that some preferential areas, where most of the convective activity was concentrated during the study period, were located along the Tietê River. The mean maximum reflectivity field has highlighted preferential regions for convection to develop over the metropolitan area of Campinas, which in turn was reinforced by the distribution of the echo tops and reflectivity >40 dBZ.

Técnicas estatísticas utilizadas em climatologia geográfica: diagnóstico e propostas

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

State of the Arctic October 2006

This State of the Arctic Report presents a review of recent data by an international group of scientists who developed a consensus on the information content and reliability. The report highlights data primarily from 2000 to 2005 with a first look at winter 2006, providing an update to some of the records of physical processes discussed in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004, 2005). Of particular note: • Atmospheric climate patterns are shifting (Fig. 1). The late winter/spring pattern for 2000–2005 had new hot spots in northeast Canada and the East Siberian Sea relative to 1980–1999. Late winter 2006, however, shows a return to earlier climate patterns, with warm temperatures in the extended region near Svalbard. • Ocean salinity and temperature profiles at the North Pole and in the Beaufort Sea, which changed abruptly in the 1990s, show that conditions since 2000 have relaxed toward the pre-1990 climatology, although 2001–2004 has seen an increase in northward ocean heat transport through Bering Strait (Fig. 2), which is thought to impact sea ice loss. • Sea ice extent continues to decrease. The sea ice extent in September 2005 was the minimum observed in summer during the satellite era (beginning in 1979), marking an unprecedented series of extreme ice extent minima beginning in 2002 (Fig. 3). The sea ice extent in March 2006 was also the minimum observed in winter during the satellite era. • Tundra vegetation greenness increased, primarily due to an increase in the abundance of shrubs. Boreal forest vegetation greenness decreased, possibly due to drought conditions (Fig. 4). • There is increasing interest in the stability of the Greenland ice sheet. The velocity of outlet glaciers increased in 2005 relative to 2000 and 1995, but uncertainty remains with regard to the total mass balance. • Permafrost temperatures continue to increase. However, data on changes in the active layer thickness (the relatively thin layer of ground between the surface and permafrost that undergoes seasonal freezing and thawing) are less conclusive. While some of the sites show a barely noticeable increasing trend in the thickness of the active layer, most of them do not. • Globally, 2005 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (beginning in 1880), with the Arctic providing a large contribution toward this increase. Many of the trends documented in the ACIA are continuing, but some are not. Taken collectively, the observations presented in this report indicate that during 2000–2005 the Arctic system showed signs of continued warming. However, there are a few indications that certain elements may be recovering and returning to recent climatological norms (for example, the central Arctic Ocean and some wind patterns). These mixed tendencies further illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic physical system. They underline the importance of maintaining and expanding efforts to observe and better understand this important component of the climate system to provide accurate predictions of its future state.

Eddy-induced upwelling off Cape Sao Tome (22 degrees S, Brazil)

The regional ocean off southeast Brazil (20 degrees S-28 degrees S) is known as a current-eddy-upwelling region. The proximity of the Brazil Current to the coast in the Cape Sao Tome vicinities, as well as of its quasi-stationary unstable meanders, suggests the possibility of background eddy-induced upwelling. Such phenomenon can intensify the prevalent coastal upwelling due to wind and topographic effects. In this paper, with the help of a numerical simulation, we provide evidence that eddy-induced upwelling in the absence of wind is possible in this region. The simulation was conducted with a regional configuration of the 3-D Princeton Ocean Model initialized by a feature-based implementation of the Brazil Current and Cape Frio eddy, blended with climatology. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of Antarctic sea ice on the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere during the southern summer

This study examines the influence of Antarctic sea ice distribution on the large scale circulation of the Southern Hemisphere using a fully coupled GCM where the sea ice submodel is replaced by a climatology of observed extremes in sea ice concentration. Three 150-year simulations were completed for maximum, minimum and average sea ice concentrations and the results for the austral summer (January-March) were compared using the surface temperatures forced by the sea ice distributions as a filter for creating the composite differences. The results indicate that in the austral summer the polar cell expands (contracts) under minimum (maximum) sea ice conditions with corresponding shifts in the midlatitude Ferrell cell. We suggest that this response occurs because sea ice lies in the margin between the polar and midlatitude cells. The polarity of the Southern Hemisphere Annular (SAM) mode is also influenced such that when sea ice is at a minimum (maximum) the polarity of the SAM tends to be negative (positive).

Representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses in the ocean component of the NCAR-CCSM model

We examine Weddell Sea deep water mass distributions with respect to the results from three different model runs using the oceanic component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM). One run is inter-annually forced by corrected NCAR/NCEP fluxes, while the other two are forced with the annual cycle obtained from the same climatology. One of the latter runs includes an interactive sea-ice model. Optimum Multiparameter analysis is applied to separate the deep water masses in the Greenwich Meridian section (into the Weddell Sea only) to measure the degree of realism obtained in the simulations. First, we describe the distribution of the simulated deep water masses using observed water type indices. Since the observed indices do not provide an acceptable representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses as expected, they are specifically adjusted for each simulation. Differences among the water masses` representations in the three simulations are quantified through their root-mean-square differences. Results point out the need for better representation (and inclusion) of ice-related processes in order to improve the oceanic characteristics and variability of dense Southern Ocean water masses in the outputs of the NCAR-CCSM model, and probably in other ocean and climate models.