Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2030

Currently we have little understanding of the impacts of land use change on soil C stocks in the Brazilian Amazon. Such information is needed to determine impacts'6n the global C cycle and the sustainability of agricultural systems that are replacing native forest. The aim of this study was to predict soil carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon during the period between 2000 and 2030, using the GEFSOC soil carbon (C) modelling system. In order to do so, we devised current and future land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, taking into account: (i) deforestation, rates from the past three decades, (ii) census data on land use from 1940 to 2000, including the expansion and intensification of agriculture in the region, (iii) available information on management practices, primarily related to well managed pasture versus degraded pasture and conventional systems versus no-tillage systems for soybean (Glycine max) and (iv) FAO predictions on agricultural land use and land use changes for the years 2015 and 2030. The land use scenarios were integrated with spatially explicit soils data (SOTER database), climate, potential natural vegetation and land management units using the recently developed GEFSOC soil C modelling system. Results are presented in map, table and graph form for the entire Brazilian Amazon for the current situation (1990 and 2000) and the future (2015 and 2030). Results include soil organic C (SOC) stocks and SOC stock change rates estimated by three methods: (i) the Century ecosystem model, (ii) the Rothamsted C model and (iii) the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scale. In addition, we show estimated values of above and belowground biomass for native vegetation, pasture and soybean. The results on regional SOC stocks compare reasonably well with those based on mapping approaches. The GEFSOC system provided a means of efficiently handling complex interactions among biotic-edapho-climatic conditions (> 363,000 combinations) in a very large area (similar to 500 Mha) such as the Brazilian Amazon. All of the methods used showed a decline in SOC stock for the period studied; Century and RothC simulated values for 2030 being about 7% lower than those in 1990. Values from Century and RothC (30,430 and 25,000 Tg for the 0-20 cm layer for the Brazilian Amazon region were higher than those obtained from the IPCC system (23,400 Tg in the 0-30 cm layer). Finally; our results can help understand the major biogeochemical cycles that influence soil fertility and help devise management strategies that enhance the sustainability of these areas and thus slow further deforestation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

The role of food standards in international trade: evidence from Brazilian beef exports to the EU market

The study reviews the literature on global chain governance and food standards to allow for an assessment of Brazilian beef exports to the European Union. The empirical approach employed is based on company case studies. The results suggest that the Brazilian beef chain has little choice but to adapt to market changes as standards evolve. Costs of compliance for meeting international food standards reduce Brazil's comparative advantage. At the same time, changes in the nature of demand have created the need for a more integrated supply chain in order to enhance confidence in Brazil's beef production and processing abroad.

Trust and governance of global value chains: The case of a Brazilian beef processor

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to offer an exploratory case study comparing one Brazilian beef processor's relationships supplying two different distribution channels, an EU importer and an EU retail chain operating in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach - The paper begins with a short review of global value chains and the recent literature on trust. It gives the background to the Brazilian beef chain and presents data obtained through in-depth interviews, annual reports and direct observation with the Brazilian beef processor, the EU importer and the retailer. The interviews were conducted with individual firms, but the analysis places them in a chain context, identifying the links and relationships between the agents of the chains and aiming to describe each distribution channel. Findings - Executive chain governance exercised by the domestic retailer stimulates technical upgrading and transferring of best practices to local. suppliers. Consequently, this kind of relationship results in more trust within the global value chain. Practical implications - There are difficulties and challenges facing this Brazilian beef processor that are party related to the need to comply with increasingly complex and demanding food safety and food quality standards. There is still a gap between practices adopted for the export market and practices adopted locally. The strategies of transnational retailers in offering differentiated beef should be taken in account. Originality/value - The research outlines an interdisciplinary framework able to explain chain relationships and the kind of trust that emerges in relationships between EU importer/retail and a developing country supplier.

Do all tannins have similar nutritional effects? A comparison of three Brazilian fodder legumes

Three tropical legumes, namely Leucaena leucocephala, Sesbania sesban and Cajanus cajan, were subjected to chemical analysis plus in vitro, in situ and in vivo evaluations. Three different assays were used to determine total tannins: adsorption to polyvinyl pyrrolidine (PVPP-tannins), radial diffusion (RD-tannins) and protein precipitation capacity (BSA-tannins). Total phenols, total tannins and condensed tannins were highest for Sesbania. RD-tannins were correlated with total phenols (r(2) = 0.93), PVPP-tannins (r(2) = 0.92) and condensed tannins (r(2) = 0.99). The protein precipitation capacity of Sesbania, Leucaena and Cajanus were 25.9, 6.13 and 4.05 mu g BSA/g DM, respectively. Gas production at 24h was negatively correlated with total phenols (r(2) = 0.99), PVPP-tannins (r(2) = 0.99) and condensed tannins (r(2) = 0.91). The RD-, PVPP-tannins and the response to polyethylene glycol (PEG) in the gas production assay appeared to be useful as a first screen for tannins. In situ degradability did not reflect any adverse effects of tannins. However, in vivo experiments showed that the apparent DM digestibility of Sesbania and Leucaena was lower than the basal diet. The apparent protein digestibility was lower for all legumes compared to the basal diet. Most treatments caused a negative nitrogen balance. The problems associated with browse feeding were not only related to tannin contents, other factors such as inherently poor digestibility and low energy intake may also have lead to the poor animal performance on these diets. We propose, given the limitations of current tannin assays, that it is not possible to predict beneficial or harmful nutritional effects from total tannin concentrations per se. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ventilation rates in schools and pupil’s performance using computerized assessment tests

Research shows that poor indoor air quality (IAQ) in school buildings can cause a reduction in the students’ performance assessed by short-term computer-based tests; whereas good air quality in classrooms can enhance children's concentration and also teachers’ productivity. Investigation of air quality in classrooms helps us to characterise pollutant levels and implement corrective measures. Outdoor pollution, ventilation equipment, furnishings, and human activities affect IAQ. In school classrooms, the occupancy density is high (1.8–2.4 m2/person) compared to offices (10 m2/person). Ventilation systems expend energy and there is a trend to save energy by reducing ventilation rates. We need to establish the minimum acceptable level of fresh air required for the health of the occupants. This paper describes a project, which will aim to investigate the effect of IAQ and ventilation rates on pupils’ performance and health using psychological tests. The aim is to recommend suitable ventilation rates for classrooms and examine the suitability of the air quality guidelines for classrooms. The air quality, ventilation rates and pupils’ performance in classrooms will be evaluated in parallel measurements. In addition, Visual Analogue Scales will be used to assess subjective perception of the classroom environment and SBS symptoms. Pupil performance will be measured with Computerised Assessment Tests (CAT), and Pen and Paper Performance Tasks while physical parameters of the classroom environment will be recorded using an advanced data logging system. A total number of 20 primary schools in the Reading area are expected to participate in the present investigation, and the pupils participating in this study will be within the age group of 9–11 years. On completion of the project, based on the overall data recommendations for suitable ventilation rates for schools will be formulated.

Exploring the role of design quality in the Building Schools for the Future programme

The Building Schools for the Future (BSF) programme represents the biggest single UK government investment in school buildings for more than 50 years. A key goal for BSF is to ensure that pupils learn in 21st-century facilities that are designed or redesigned to allow for educational transformation. This represents a major challenge to those involved in the design of schools. The paper explores the conceptualizations of design quality within the BSF programme. It draws on content analysis of influential reports on design published between 2000 and 2007 and interviews with key actors in the provision of schools. The means by which design quality has become defined and given importance within the programme through official documents is described and compared with the multiple understandings of design quality among key stakeholders. The findings portray the many challenges that practitioners face when operationalizing design quality in practice. The paper concludes with reflections on the inconsistencies between how design quality has been appropriated in the BSF programme and how it is interpreted and adopted in practice.