Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

Draft U.S. Pacific Marine Mammal Stock Assessments: 2009

Under the 1994 amendments to the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) are required to publish Stock Assessment Reports for all stocks of marine mammals within U.S. waters, to review new information every year for strategic stocks and every three years for non-strategic stocks, and to update the stock assessment reports when significant new information becomes available. This report presents stock assessments for 13 Pacific marine mammal stocks under NMFS jurisdiction, including 8 “strategic” stocks and 5 “non-strategic” stocks (see summary table). A new stock assessment for humpback whales in American Samoa waters is included in the Pacific reports for the first time. New or revised abundance estimates are available for 9 stocks, including Eastern North Pacific blue whales, American Samoa humpback whales, five U.S. west coast harbor porpoise stocks, the Hawaiian monk seal, and southern resident killer whales. A change in the abundance estimate of Eastern North Pacific blue whales reflects a recommendation from the Pacific Scientific Review Group to utilize mark-recapture estimates for this population, which provide a better estimate of total population size than the average of recent line-transect and mark-recapture estimates. The ‘Northern Oregon/Washington Coast Stock’ harbor porpoise stock assessment includes a name change (‘Oregon’ is appended to ‘Northern Oregon’) to reflect recent stock boundary changes. Changes in abundance estimates for the two stocks of harbor porpoise that occur in Oregon waters are the result of these boundary changes, and do not reflect biological changes in the populations. Updated information on the three stocks of false killer whales in Hawaiian waters is also included in these reports. Information on the remaining 50 Pacific region stocks will be reprinted without revision in the final 2009 reports and currently appears in the 2008 reports (Carretta et al. 2009). Stock Assessments for Alaskan marine mammals are published by the National Marine Mammal Laboratory (NMML) in a separate report. Pacific region stock assessments include those studied by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC, La Jolla, California), the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC, Honolulu, Hawaii), the National Marine Mammal Laboratory (NMML, Seattle, Washington), and the Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC, Seattle, WA). Northwest Fisheries Science Center staff prepared the report on the Eastern North Pacific Southern Resident killer whale. National Marine Mammal Laboratory staff prepared the Northern Oregon/Washington coast harbor porpoise stock assessment. Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center staff prepared the report on the Hawaiian monk seal. Southwest Fisheries Science Center staff prepared stock assessments for 9 stocks. The stock assessment for the American Samoa humpback whale was prepared by staff from the Center for Coastal Studies, Hawaiian Islands Humpback National Marine Sanctuary, the Smithsonian Institution, and the Southwest Fisheries Science Center. Draft versions of the stock assessment reports were reviewed by the Pacific Scientific Review Group at the November 2008, Maui meeting. The authors also wish to thank those who provided unpublished data, especially Robin Baird and Joseph Mobley, who provided valuable information on Hawaiian cetaceans. Any omissions or errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. This is a working document and individual stock assessment reports will be updated as new information on marine mammal stocks and fisheries becomes available. Background information and guidelines for preparing stock assessment reports are reviewed in Wade and Angliss (1997). The authors solicit any new information or comments which would improve future stock assessment reports. These Stock Assessment Reports summarize information from a wide range of sources and an extensive bibliography of all sources is given in each report. We strongly urge users of this document to refer to and cite original literature sources rather than citing this report or previous Stock Assessment Reports. If the original sources are not accessible, the citation should follow the format: [Original source], as cited in [this Stock Assessment Report citation].

U.S. Pacific Marine Mammal Stock Assessments

Under the 1994 amendments to the Marine Mammal Protection Act, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) were required to produce stock assessment reports for all marine mammal stocks in waters within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. This document contains the stock assessment reports for the U.S. Pacific marine mammal stocks under NMFS jurisdiction. Marine mammal species which are under the management jurisdiction of the USFWS are not included in this report. A separate report containing background, guidelines for preparation, and .a summary of all stock assessment reports is available from the NMFS Office of Protected Resources. This report was prepared by staff of the Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NMFS and the Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS. The information presented here was compiled primarily from published sources, but additional unpublished information was included where it contributed to the assessments. The authors wish to thanks the members of the Pacific Scientific Review Group for their valuable contributions and constructive criticism: Hannah Bernard, Robin Brown, Mark Fraker, Doyle Hanan, John Heyning, Steve Jeffries, Katherine Ralls, Michael Scott, and Terry Wright. Their comments greatly improved the quality of these reports, We also thanks the Marine Mammal Commission, The Humane Society of the United States, The Marine Mammal Center, The Center for Marine Conservation, and Friends of the Sea Otter for their careful reviews and thoughtful comments. Special thanks to Paul Wade of the Office of Protected Resources for his exhaustive review and comments, which greatly enhanced the consistency and technical quality of the reports. Any ommissions or errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. This is a working document and individual stock assessment reports will be updated as new information becomes available and as changes to marine mammal stocks and fisheries occur; therefore, each stock assessment report is intended to be a stand alone document. The authors solicit any new information or comments which would improve future stock assessment reports. This is Southwest Fisheries Science Center Technical Memorandum NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC- 219, July 1995. 111

Chemical composition of bottom sediments from the northern part of the Deryugin Trough, Sea of Okhotsk

Distribution trace element contents in the upper (up to 5 m) Holocene-Upper Pleistocene sediment layer along the northern and southern sublatitudinal profiles in the northern part of the Deryugin Trough is discussed. Mathematical processing of chemical analysis data has been made. On the basis of the cluster analysis 16 elements have been combined into 5 geochemical groups. Two of them (1 - Ag-Mo group and 2 - Mn-Ba-Ni-Sr group) were considered in detail. Analysis of Ag and Mo distributions in the sediments and findings of molybdenite permitted to conclude that enrichment of the sediments by these elements resulted from edaphic washing of magmatic rocks containing Ag-Mo mineralization and probably located on the northwestern slope of the Deryugin trough. The second geochemical group is most likely connected with hydrothermal barite mineralization found in the northeastern part of the Deryugin trough. Considering Mn distribution in bottom sediment cores supply of Mn was pulsating. This allows concluding that during Holocene - Late Pleistocene three cycles of hydrothermal activity occurred in the Deryugin Trough, and the most intensive one was in Holocene.

Chronology and stable carbon isotopic ratios of sediments from the Western Pacific Warm Pool region

Instrumental data suggest that major shifts in tropical Pacific atmospheric dynamics and hydrology have occurred within the past century, potentially in response to anthropogenic warming. To better understand these trends, we use the hydrogen isotopic ratios of terrestrial higher plant leaf waxes (DDwax) in marine sediments from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compile a detailed reconstruction of central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) hydrologic variability spanning most of the last two millennia. Our paleodata are highly correlated with a monsoon reconstruction from Southeast Asia, indicating that intervals of strong East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) activity are associated with a weaker Indonesian monsoon (IM). Furthermore, the centennial-scale oscillations in our data follow known changes in Northern Hemisphere climate (e.g., the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period) implying a dynamic link between Northern Hemisphere temperatures and IPWP hydrology. The inverse relationship between the EASM and IM suggests that migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and associated changes in monsoon strength caused synoptic hydrologic shifts in the IPWP throughout most of the past two millennia.

Abundance of nodules, chemical and mineral compositions of nodules and sediments from the Central Pacific

The monograph considers facial conditions of ore-formation in the Central Equatorial Pacific, as well as lithostratigraphy and local variability of bottom sediments. Mineral composition of nodules, forms of occurrence of chemical elements in sediments and nodules, composition of interstitial waters, age of nodules, regularities and processes of ore formation in the radiolarian belt of the Pacific Ocean zone are also under consideration.

Contents of P2O5, Corg, Sr, and Ba in phosphorites and host sediments from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans

Sr contents in phosphorites on shelves of the Southwest Africa, and of Chile and Peru increase with degree of their lithification, from 0.05 to 0.28% and from 0.13 to 0.16% respectively. Phosphorites from Pacific submarine seamounts have the average Sr content 0.11%, and bone phosphate from Pacific floor 0.13%. Shelf phosphorites are characterized by high correlation coefficients between Sr and P2O5 (R = +0.82) and constant Sr/P2O5 ratio (0.0084). In phosphorites from submarine sea-mounts and in bones from the ocean floor Sr/P2O5 ratio is only a little higher than a half of that in shelf phosphorites. This indicates specific and different genesis of phosphorites from submarine mountains. Ba content in recent phosphorites from the shelf of the Southwest Africa changes with increasing degree of lithification. At first their Ba contents rise from 0.031 to 0.188%, then they diminish to 0.016%, and thereafter again increase to 0.070%. This is due to successive predominance of one of the following processes going in different directions: co-precipitation with phosphate gels or formation of true separate Ba phase, loss of phosphate in crystallization and "self-purification" of concentrations, and surface adsorption. In Peru-Chile shelf phosphorites the average Ba content is 0.017%, in phosphorites from Pacific seamounts 0.192%, and in fossilized bones 0.010%.

Pb concentrations, Pb isotopic composition, and amount of metalliferous components in pelagic sediments from the Pacific Ocean

The amount of lead annually transferred from oceanic crust to metalliferous sediments was estimated in order to test the hypothesis that a non-magmatic flux of lead causes the Pb surplus in the continental crust. A Pb surplus has been inferred from global crust-mantle lead mass balances derived from lead concentration correlations with other trace elements and from lead isotope systematics in oceanic basalts. DSDP/ODP data on the amount of metalliferous sediments in the Pacific Ocean and along a South Atlantic traverse are used to calculate the mean worldwide thickness of 3 (+/-1) m for purely metalliferous sediment componens. Lead isotope ratios of 39 metalliferous sediments from the Pacific define mixing lines between continent-derived (seawater) and mantle-derived (basaltic) lead, with the most metal-rich sediments usually having the most mantle-like Pb isotope composition. We used this isotope correlation and the Pb content of the 39 metalliferous sediments to derive an estimate of 130 (+/-70) µg/g for the concentration of mantle-derived lead in the purely metalliferous end-member. Mass balance calculations show that at least 12 (+/-8)% of the lead, annually transferred from upper mantle to oceanic crust at the ocean ridges, is leached out by hydrothermal processes and re-deposited in marine sediments. If all of the metalliferous lead is ultimately transferred to the continental crust during subduction, the annual flux of this lead from mantle to continental crust is 2.6 (+/-2.0) * 10**6 kg. Assuming this transfer rate to be proportional to the rate of oceanic plate production, one can fit the lead transfer to models of plate production rate variations through time. Integrating over 4 Ga, hydrothermal lead transfer to the continental crust accounts for a significant portion of the Pb surplus in the continental crust. It therefore appears to be one of the main reasons for the anomalous behavior of lead in the global crust-mantle system.

Element analyses and isotope composition of basalts from the West Valley segment, Juan de Fuca Ridge, northeast Pacific

The 50 km-long West Valley segment of the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge is a young, extension-dominated spreading centre, with volcanic activity concentrated in its southern half. A suite of basalts dredged from the West Valley floor, the adjacent Heck Seamount chain, and a small near-axis cone here named Southwest Seamount, includes a spectrum of geochemical compositions ranging from highly depleted normal (N-) MORB to enriched (E-) MORB. Heck Seamount lavas have chondrite-normalized La/Sm en -0.3, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.70235 - 0.70242, and 206Pb/204Pb = 18.22 - 18.44, requiring a source which is highly depleted in trace elements both at the time of melt generation and over geologic time. The E-MORB from Southwest Seamount have La/Sm en -1.8, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.70245 - 0.70260, and 206Pb/204Pb = 18.73 - 19.15, indicating a more enriched source. Basalts from the West Valley floor have chemical compositions intermediate between these two end-members. As a group, West Valley basalts from a two-component mixing array in element-element and element-isotope plots which is best explained by magma mixing. Evidence for crustal-level magma mixing in some basalts includes mineral-melt chemical and isotopic disequilibrium, but mixing of melts at depth (within the mantle) may also occur. The mantle beneath the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge is modelled as a plum-pudding, with "plums" of enriched, amphibole-bearing peridotite floating in a depleted matrix (DM). Low degrees of melting preferentially melt the "plums", initially removing only the amphibole component and producing alkaline to transitional E-MORB. Higher degrees of melting tap both the "plums" and the depleted matrix to yield N-MORB. The subtly different isotopic compositions of the E-MORBs compared to the N-MORBs require that any enriched component in the upper mantle was derived from a depleted source. If the enriched component crystallized from fluids with a DM source, the "plums" could evolve to their more evolved isotopic composition after a period of 1.5-2.0 Ga. Alternatively, the enriched component could have formed recently from fluids with a lessdepleted source than DM, such as subducted oceanic crust. A third possibility is that enriched material might be dispersed as "plums" throughout the upper mantle, transported from depth by mantle plumes.

Geochemistry of igneous rocks recovered from a transect across the Mariana Trough, arc, fore-arc, and trench, at DSDP Leg 60 Holes and DM17

Major and trace element analyses are presented for 110 samples from the DSDP Leg 60 basement cores drilled along a transect across the Mariana Trough, arc, fore-arc, and Trench at about 18°N. The igneous rocks forming breccias at Site 453 in the west Mariana Trough include plutonic cumulates and basalts with calc-alkaline affinities. Basalts recovered from Sites 454 and 456 in the Mariana Trough include types with compositions similar to normal MORB and types with calc-alkaline affinities within a single hole. At Site 454 the basalts show a complete compositional transition between normal MORB and calc-alkaline basalts. These basalts may be the result of mixing of the two magma types in small sub-crustal magma reservoirs or assimilation of calc-alkaline, arc-derived vitric tuffs by normal MORB magmas during eruption or intrusion. A basaltic andesite clast in the breccia recovered from Site 457 on the active Mariana arc and samples dredged from a seamount in the Mariana arc are calc-alkaline and similar in composition to the basalts recovered from the Mariana Trough and West Mariana Ridge. Primitive island arc tholeiites were recovered from all four sites (Sites 458-461) drilled on the fore-arc and arc-side wall of the trench. These basalts form a coherent compositional group distinct from the Mariana arc, West Mariana arc, and Mariana Trough calc-alkaline lavas, indicating temporal (and perhaps spatial?) chemical variations in the arc magmas erupted along the transect. Much of the 209 meters of basement cored at Site 458 consists of endiopside- and bronzite-bearing, Mg-rich andesites with compositions related to boninites. These andesites have the very low Ti, Zr, Ti/Zr, P, and rare-earthelement contents characteristic of boninites, although they are slightly light-rare-earth-depleted and have lower MgO, Cr, Ni, and higher CaO and Al2O3 contents than those reported for typical boninites. The large variations in chemistry observed in the lavas recovered from this transect suggest that diverse mantle source compositions and complex petrogenetic process are involved in forming crustal rocks at this intra-oceanic active plate margin.

Paleoelevations in the Pacific Ocean 35 million years ago

Data from deep sea drilling, linear magnetic anomalies and bathymetric measurements together with age and morphometric characteristics of seamounts have been used to construct a paleobathymetric map of the oceans 35 million years ago. A brief analysis of these results is presented.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, community calcification and photosynthesis during experiments with coral reefs at Shiraho reef, Ishigaki Island, southwest Japan, 2009

Seven coral reef communities were defined on Shiraho fringing reef, Ishigaki Island, Japan. Net photosynthesis and calcification rates were measured by in situ incubations at 10 sites that included six of the defined communities, and which occupied most of the area on the reef flat and slope. Net photosynthesis on the reef flat was positive overall, but the reef flat acts as a source for atmospheric CO2, because the measured calcification/photosynthesis ratio of 2.5 is greater than the critical ratio of 1.67. Net photosynthesis on the reef slope was negative. Almost all excess organic production from the reef flat is expected to be effused to the outer reef and consumed by the communities there. Therefore, the total net organic production of the whole reef system is probably almost zero and the whole reef system also acts as a source for atmospheric CO2. Net calcification rates of the reef slope corals were much lower than those of the branching corals. The accumulation rate of the former was approximately 0.5 m kyr?1 and of the latter was ~0.7-5 m kyr?1. Consequently, reef slope corals could not grow fast enough to keep up with or catch up to rising sea levels during the Holocene. On the other hand, the branching corals grow fast enough to keep up with this rising sea level. Therefore, a transition between early Holocene and present-day reef communities is expected. Branching coral communities would have dominated while reef growth kept pace with sea level rise, and the reef was constructed with a branching coral framework. Then, the outside of this framework was covered and built up by reef slope corals and present-day reefs were constructed.

Trace metals in shells of mussels and clams from deep-sea hydrothermal vent fields of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and East Pacific Rise

Bioaccumulation of trace metals in carbonate shells of mussels and clams was investigated at seven hydrothermal vent fields of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Menez Gwen, Snake Pit, Rainbow, and Broken Spur) and the Eastern Pacific (9°N and 21°N at the East Pacific Rise and the southern trough of Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California). Mineralogical analysis showed that carbonate skeletons of mytilid mussel Bathymodiolus sp. and vesicomyid clam Calyptogena m. are composed mainly of calcite and aragonite, respectively. The first data were obtained for contents of a variety of chemical elements in bivalve carbonate shells from various hydrothermal vent sites. Analyses of chemical compositions (including Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Cd, Pb, Ag, Ni, Cr, Co, As, Se, Sb, and Hg) of 35 shell samples and 14 water samples from mollusk biotopes revealed influences of environmental conditions and some biological parameters on bioaccumulation of metals. Bivalve shells from hydrothermal fields with black smokers are enriched in Fe and Mn by factor of 20-30 relative to the same species from the Menez Gwen low-temperature vent site. It was shown that essential elements (Fe, Mn, Ni, and Cu) more actively accumulated during early ontogeny of the shells. High enrichment factors of most metals (n x 100 - n x 10000) indicate efficient accumulation function of bivalve carbonate shells. Passive metal accumulation owing to adsorption on shell surfaces was estimated to be no higher than 50% of total amount and varied from 14% for Fe to 46% for Mn.