Northern winter climate change: assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere–troposphere coupling

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on Northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess Northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the inter-model spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the inter-model spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

A simple model of the effects of the mid-latitude total ion trough in the bottomsideFlayer on HF radiowave propagation

Observations of the amplitudes and Doppler shifts of received HF radio waves are compared with model predictions made using a two-dimensional ray-tracing program. The signals are propagated over a sub-auroral path, which is shown to lie along the latitudes of the mid-latitude trough at times of low geomagnetic activity. Generalizing the predictions to include a simple model of the trough in the density and height of the F2 peak enables the explanation of the anomalous observed diurnal variations. The behavior of received amplitude, Doppler shift, and signal-to-noise ratio as a function of the Kp index value, the time of day, and the season (in 17 months of continuous recording) is found to agree closely with that predicted using the statistical position of the trough as deduced from 8 years of Alouette satellite soundings. The variation in the times of the observation of large signal amplitudes with the Kp value and the complete absence of such amplitudes when it exceeds 2.75 are two features that implicate the trough in these effects.

Wave height analysis from 10 years of observations in the Norwegian Sea

Large waves pose risks to ships, offshore structures, coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (Hs) and maximum wave height (Hmax) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. During the period 2000 to 2009, surface elevation was recorded every 0.59 s during sampling periods of 30 min. The Hmax observations scale linearly with Hs on average. A widely-used empirical Weibull distribution is found to estimate average values of Hmax/Hs and Hmax better than a Rayleigh distribution, but tends to underestimate both for all but the smallest waves. In this paper we propose a modified Rayleigh distribution which compensates for the heterogeneity of the observed dataset: the distribution is fitted to the whole dataset and improves the estimate of the largest waves. Over the 10-year period, the Weibull distribution approximates the observed Hs and Hmax well, and an exponential function can be used to predict the probability distribution function of the ratio Hmax/Hs. However, the Weibull distribution tends to underestimate the occurrence of extremely large values of Hs and Hmax. The persistence of Hs and Hmax in winter is also examined. Wave fields with Hs>12 m and Hmax>16 m do not last longer than 3 h. Low-to-moderate wave heights that persist for more than 12 h dominate the relationship of the wave field with the winter NAO index over 2000–2009. In contrast, the inter-annual variability of wave fields with Hs>5.5 m or Hmax>8.5 m and wave fields persisting over ~2.5 days is not associated with the winter NAO index.

The impact of variable sea ice roughness on changes in Arctic Ocean surface stress: a model study

The Arctic sea ice cover is thinning and retreating, causing changes in surface roughness that in turn modify the momentum flux from the atmosphere through the ice into the ocean. New model simulations comprising variable sea ice drag coefficients for both the air and water interface demonstrate that the heterogeneity in sea ice surface roughness significantly impacts the spatial distribution and trends of ocean surface stress during the last decades. Simulations with constant sea ice drag coefficients as used in most climate models show an increase in annual mean ocean surface stress (0.003 N/m2 per decade, 4.6%) due to the reduction of ice thickness leading to a weakening of the ice and accelerated ice drift. In contrast, with variable drag coefficients our simulations show annual mean ocean surface stress is declining at a rate of -0.002 N/m2 per decade (3.1%) over the period 1980-2013 because of a significant reduction in surface roughness associated with an increasingly thinner and younger sea ice cover. The effectiveness of sea ice in transferring momentum does not only depend on its resistive strength against the wind forcing but is also set by its top and bottom surface roughness varying with ice types and ice conditions. This reveals the need to account for sea ice surface roughness variations in climate simulations in order to correctly represent the implications of sea ice loss under global warming.

LOFZY 2005 - Field experiment on Cyclones over the Norwegian Sea: meteorological measurements of the research aircraft Falcon, 23 autonomous water buoys and radiosoundings at the research vessel Celtic Explorer

The field campaign LOFZY 2005 (LOFoten ZYklonen, engl.: Cyclones) was carried out in the frame of Collaborative Research Centre 512, which deals with low-pressure systems (cyclones) and the climate system of the North Atlantic. Cyclones are of special interest due to their influence on the interaction between atmosphere and ocean. Cyclone activity in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean is notably high and is of particular importance for the entire Atlantic Ocean. An area of maximum precipitation exists in front of the Norwegian Lofoten islands. One aim of the LOFZY field campaign was to clarify the role cyclones play in the interaction of ocean and atmosphere. In order to obtain a comprehensive dataset of cyclone activity and ocean-atmosphere interaction a field experiment was carried out in the Lofoten region during March and April 2005. Employed platforms were the Irish research vessel RV Celtic Explorer which conducted a meteorological (radiosondes, standard parameters, observations) and an oceanographic (CTD) program. The German research aircraft Falcon accomplished eight flight missions (between 4-21 March) to observe synoptic conditions with high spatial and temporal resolution. In addition 23 autonomous marine buoys were deployed in advance of the campaign in the observed area to measure drift, air-temperature and -pressure and water-temperature. In addition to the published datasets several other measurements were performed during the experiment. Corresonding datasets will be published in the near future and are available on request. Details about all used platforms and sensors and all performed measurements are listed in the fieldreport. The following datasets are available on request: ground data at RV Celtic Explorer

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern An- nular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the re- sponse of the Southern Ocean SST (55◦S−70◦S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step re- sponse function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only three years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models’ climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use obser- vational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

Putative antinociceptive action of nitric oxide in the caudal part of the spinal trigeminal nucleus during chronic carrageenan-induced arthritis in the rat temporomandibular joint

In order to investigate a putative role for nitric oxide (NO) in the central nociceptive processing following carrageenan-induced arthritis in the rat temporomandibular joint (TMJ), we analyzed the immunoreactivity, gene expression and activity of nitric oxide synthases (NOS) in the caudal part of the spinal trigeminal nucleus (Sp5C) during the acute (24 h), chronic (15 days) and chronic-active (14 days-24 h) arthritis. In addition, evaluation of head-withdrawal threshold was carried out in all phases of arthritis under chronic inhibition of nNOS with the selective inhibitor 7-nitroindazole (7-NI). Neurons with nNOS-like immunoreactivity (nNOS-LI) were concentrated mainly in the lamina II of the Sp5C, showing no significant statistical difference during arthritis. Only a discrete percentage of nNOS-LI neurons expressed Fos immunoreactivity. The mRNA expression for both nNOS and endothelial nitric oxide synthases (eNOS) presented no noticeable differences among the groups. No expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) was detected in the Sp5C by either immunohistochemistry or reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RTPCR). Ca(2+)-dependent NOS activity in the ipsilateral Sp5C was significantly higher (108.3 +/- 49.2%; P<0.01) in animals during the chronic arthritis. Interestingly, this increased activity was completely abolished 24 h later, in the chronic-active arthritis. Finally, head-withdrawal threshold decreased significantly in the chronic arthritis in animals under 7-NI chronic inhibition. In conclusion, nNOS immunoreactivity and mRNA expression are stable in the Sp5C during TMJ arthritis evolution, but its activity significantly increases in the chronic-phases supporting an antinociceptive role of the nNOS as evidenced by pain threshold experiment. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

First record of Tuxophorus caligodes (Siphonostomatoida, Tuxophoridae) in sea-farmed cobia, Rachycentron canadum, in Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in soil and water samples in the northeastern part of São Paulo State, Brazil

Detailed analyses of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers (HCHs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloro ethane (DDT) and its metabolites (DDTs) and congeners of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in soil and surface water from the northeastern São Paulo, Brazil allowed the evaluation of the contamination status, distribution and possible pollution sources. The pesticides and PCBs demonstrated markedly different distributions, reflecting different agricultural, domestic and industrial usage in each region studied. The ranges of HCH, DDT, and PCBs concentrations in the soil samples were 0.05-0.92, 0.12-11.01, 0.02-0.25 ng g(-1) dry wt, respectively, and in the surface water samples were 0.02-0.6, 0.02-0.58 and 0.02-0.5 ng l(-1), respectively. Overall elevated levels of DDT and PCB were recorded in region 2, a site very close to melting, automotive batteries industries, and agricultural practice regions. High ratios of metabolites of DDT to DDT isomers revealed the recent use of DDT in this environment. The sources of contamination are closely related to human activities, such as domestic and industrial discharge, street runoff, agricultural pesticides and soil erosion, due to deforestation as well as atmospheric transport. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Putative antinociceptive action of nitric oxide in the caudal part of the spinal trigeminal nucleus during chronic carrageenan-induced arthritis in the rat temporomandibular joint

In order to investigate a putative role for nitric oxide (NO) in the central nociceptive processing following carrageenan-induced arthritis in the rat temporomandibular joint (TMJ), we analyzed the immunoreactivity, gene expression and activity of nitric oxide synthases (NOS) in the caudal part of the spinal trigeminal nucleus (Sp5C) during the acute (24 h), chronic (15 days) and chronic-active (14 days-24 h) arthritis. In addition, evaluation of head-withdrawal threshold was carried out in all phases of arthritis under chronic inhibition of nNOS with the selective inhibitor 7-nitroindazole (7-NI). Neurons with nNOS-like immunoreactivity (nNOS-LI) were concentrated mainly in the lamina II of the Sp5C, showing no significant statistical difference during arthritis. Only a discrete percentage of nNOS-LI neurons expressed Fos immunoreactivity. The mRNA expression for both nNOS and endothelial nitric oxide synthases (eNOS) presented no noticeable differences among the groups. No expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) was detected in the Sp5C by either immunohistochemistry or reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RTPCR). Ca(2+)-dependent NOS activity in the ipsilateral Sp5C was significantly higher (108.3 +/- 49.2%; P<0.01) in animals during the chronic arthritis. Interestingly, this increased activity was completely abolished 24 h later, in the chronic-active arthritis. Finally, head-withdrawal threshold decreased significantly in the chronic arthritis in animals under 7-NI chronic inhibition. In conclusion, nNOS immunoreactivity and mRNA expression are stable in the Sp5C during TMJ arthritis evolution, but its activity significantly increases in the chronic-phases supporting an antinociceptive role of the nNOS as evidenced by pain threshold experiment. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pulp response after application of two resin modified glass ionomer cements (RMGICs) in deep cavities of prepared human teeth

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Quark sea structure functions of the nucleon in a statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)