Inferring landscape effects on dispersal from genetic distances: how far can we go?

Functional connectivity affects demography and gene dynamics in fragmented populations. Besides species-specific dispersal ability, the connectivity between local populations is affected by the landscape elements encountered during dispersal. Documenting these effects is thus a central issue for the conservation and management of fragmented populations. In this study, we compare the power and accuracy of three methods (partial correlations, regressions and Approximate Bayesian Computations) that use genetic distances to infer the effect of landscape upon dispersal. We use stochastic individual-based simulations of fragmented populations surrounded by landscape elements that differ in their permeability to dispersal. The power and accuracy of all three methods are good when there is a strong contrast between the permeability of different landscape elements. The power and accuracy can be further improved by restricting analyses to adjacent pairs of populations. Landscape elements that strongly impede dispersal are the easiest to identify. However, power and accuracy decrease drastically when landscape complexity increases and the contrast between the permeability of landscape elements decreases. We provide guidelines for future studies and underline the needs to evaluate or develop approaches that are more powerful.

Effects of a fire response trait on diversification in replicated radiations.

Fire has been proposed as a factor explaining the exceptional plant species richness found in Mediterranean regions. A fire response trait that allows plants to cope with frequent fire by either reseeding or resprouting could differentially affect rates of species diversification. However, little is known about the generality of the effects of differing fire response on species evolution. We study this question in the Restionaceae, a family that radiated in Southern Africa and Australia. These radiations occurred independently and represent evolutionary replicates. We apply Bayesian approaches to estimate trait-specific diversification rates and patterns of climatic niche evolution. We also compare the climatic heterogeneity of South Africa and Australia. Reseeders diversify faster than resprouters in South Africa, but not in Australia. We show that climatic preferences evolve more rapidly in reseeder lineages than in resprouters and that the optima of these climatic preferences differ between the two strategies. We find that South Africa is more climatically heterogeneous than Australia, independent of the spatial scale we consider. We propose that rapid shifts between states of the fire response trait promote speciation by separating species ecologically, but this only happens when the landscape is sufficiently heterogeneous.

Climate Change Impacts on Iowa, 2010, January 1, 2011

Today, perhaps without their realization, Iowans are factoring climate change into their lives and activities. Current farming practices and flood mitigation efforts, for example, are reflecting warmer winters, longer growing seasons, warmer nights, higher dew-point temperatures, increased humidity, greater annual stream flows, and more frequent severe precipitation events (Fig. 1) than were prevalent during the past 50 years. Some of the effects of these changes (such as longer growing season) may be positive, while others (particularly the tendency for greater precipitation events that lead to flooding) are negative. Climate change embodies all of these results and many more in a complex manner. The Iowa legislature has been proactive in seeking advice about climate change and its impacts on our state. In 2007, Governor Culver and the Iowa General Assembly enacted Senate File 485 and House File 2571 to create the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC). ICCAC members reported an emissions inventory and a forecast for Iowa’s greenhouse gases (GHGs), policy options for reducing Iowa’s GHG, and two scenarios charting GHG reductions of 50% and 90% by 2050 from a baseline of 2005. Following issuance of the final report in December 2008, the General Assembly enacted a new bill in 2009 (Sec. 27, Section 473.7, Code 2009 amended) that set in motion a review of climate change impacts and policies in Iowa. This report is the result of that 2009 bill. It continues the dialogue between Iowa’s stakeholders, scientific community, and the state legislature that was begun with these earlier reports.

Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

What drives invasibility? A multi-model inference test and spatial modelling of alien plant species richness patterns in northern Portugal

Understanding and anticipating biological invasions can focus either on traits that favour species invasiveness or on features of the receiving communities, habitats or landscapes that promote their invasibility. Here, we address invasibility at the regional scale, testing whether some habitats and landscapes are more invasible than others by fitting models that relate alien plant species richness to various environmental predictors. We use a multi-model information-theoretic approach to assess invasibility by modelling spatial and ecological patterns of alien invasion in landscape mosaics and testing competing hypotheses of environmental factors that may control invasibility. Because invasibility may be mediated by particular characteristics of invasiveness, we classified alien species according to their C-S-R plant strategies. We illustrate this approach with a set of 86 alien species in Northern Portugal. We first focus on predictors influencing species richness and expressing invasibility and then evaluate whether distinct plant strategies respond to the same or different groups of environmental predictors. We confirmed climate as a primary determinant of alien invasions and as a primary environmental gradient determining landscape invasibility. The effects of secondary gradients were detected only when the area was sub-sampled according to predictions based on the primary gradient. Then, multiple predictor types influenced patterns of alien species richness, with some types (landscape composition, topography and fire regime) prevailing over others. Alien species richness responded most strongly to extreme land management regimes, suggesting that intermediate disturbance induces biotic resistance by favouring native species richness. Land-use intensification facilitated alien invasion, whereas conservation areas hosted few invaders, highlighting the importance of ecosystem stability in preventing invasions. Plants with different strategies exhibited different responses to environmental gradients, particularly when the variations of the primary gradient were narrowed by sub-sampling. Such differential responses of plant strategies suggest using distinct control and eradication approaches for different areas and alien plant groups.

MBIS: multivariate Bayesian image segmentation tool.

We present MBIS (Multivariate Bayesian Image Segmentation tool), a clustering tool based on the mixture of multivariate normal distributions model. MBIS supports multichannel bias field correction based on a B-spline model. A second methodological novelty is the inclusion of graph-cuts optimization for the stationary anisotropic hidden Markov random field model. Along with MBIS, we release an evaluation framework that contains three different experiments on multi-site data. We first validate the accuracy of segmentation and the estimated bias field for each channel. MBIS outperforms a widely used segmentation tool in a cross-comparison evaluation. The second experiment demonstrates the robustness of results on atlas-free segmentation of two image sets from scan-rescan protocols on 21 healthy subjects. Multivariate segmentation is more replicable than the monospectral counterpart on T1-weighted images. Finally, we provide a third experiment to illustrate how MBIS can be used in a large-scale study of tissue volume change with increasing age in 584 healthy subjects. This last result is meaningful as multivariate segmentation performs robustly without the need for prior knowledge.

Monitoring detrital input and resuspension effects on sediment trap material using mineralogy and stable isotopes (δ18O and δ13C): the case of Lake Neuchatel (Switzerland)

Isotopic analyses on bulk carbonates are considered a useful tool for palaeoclimatic reconstruction assuming calcite precipitation occurring at oxygen isotope equilibrium with local water and detrital carbonate input being absent or insignificant. We present results from Lake Neuchatel (western Switzerland) that demonstrate equilibrium precipitation of calcite, except during high productivity periods, and the presence of detrital and resuspended calcite. Mineralogy, geochemistry and stable isotope values of Lake Neuchatel trap sediments and adjacent rivers suspension were studied. Mineralogy of suspended matter in the major inflowing rivers documents an important contribution of detrital carbonates, predominantly calcite with minor amounts of dolomite and ankerite. Using mineralogical data, the quantity of allochthonous calcite can be estimated by comparing the ratio ankerite + dolomite/calcite + ankerite + dolomite in the inflowing rivers and in the traps. Material taken from sediment traps shows an evolution from practically pure endogenic calcite in summer (10-20% detrital material) to higher percentages of detrital material in winter (up to 20-40%). Reflecting these mineralogical variations, delta(13)C and delta(18)O values of calcite from sediment traps are more negative in summer than in winter times. Since no significant variations in isotopic composition of lake water were detected over one year, factors controlling oxygen isotopic composition of calcite in sediment traps are the precipitation temperature, and the percentage of resuspended and detrital calcite. Samples taken close to the river inflow generally have higher delta values than the others, confirming detrital influence. SEM and isotopic studies on different size fractions (<2, 2-6, 6-20, 20-60, >60 mu m) of winter and summer samples allowed the recognition of resuspension and to separate new endogenic calcite from detrital calcite. Fractions >60 and (2 mu m have the highest percentage of detritus, Fractions 2-6 and 6-20 mu m are typical for the new endogenic calcite in summer, as given by calculations assuming isotopic equilibrium with local water. In winter such fractions show similar values than in summer, indicating resuspension. Using the isotopic composition of sediment traps material and of different size fractions, as well as the isotopic composition of lake water, the water temperature measurements and mineralogy, we re-evaluated the bulk carbonate potential for palaeoclimatic reconstruction in the presence of detrital and re-suspended calcite. This re-evaluation leads to the following conclusion: (1) the endogenic signal can be amplified by applying a particle-size separation, once the size of endogenic calcite is known from SEM study; (2) resuspended calcite does not alter the endogenic signal, but it lowers the time resolution; (3) detrital input decreases at increasing distances from the source, and it modifies the isotopic signal only when very abundant; (4) influence of detrital calcite on bulk sediment isotopic composition can be calculated. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of bacterial activity on phosphorite formation in the Miocene Monterey Formation, California

Authigenic phosphorites from the Miocene Monterey Formation (California) including an autochthonous phosphatic laminite were analyzed for molecular biomarkers, element content, and sulfur isotopic composition of associated pyrite and sulfate to evaluate the role of bacterial activity in the precipitation of phosphate minerals. The phosphorites formed in a depositional environment typified by upwelling with dynamic bottom currents and hardground formation. Pyrite enclosed in the phosphorites shows delta S-34 values as low as -36.5 parts per thousand VCDT, which is consistent with bacterial sulfate reduction. In a three-step extraction phosphorite dissolution extraction procedure, molecular fossils of sulfate-reducing bacteria (di-O-alkyl glycerol ethers and short-chain branched fatty acids i- and ai-C-15:0, i- and ai-C-17:0, and 10MeC(16:0)) were preferentially released from the mineral lattice. This suggests that the molecular fossils were tightly bound to carbonate fluorapatite, indicating that sulfate-reducing bacteria were involved in mineral formation. A close association of sulfate-reducing bacteria with large sulfide-oxidizing bacteria, which was previously suggested to favor carbonate fluorapatite precipitation, could neither be confirmed nor excluded for the Miocene Monterey Formation phosphorites. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of an Expert System for Forecasting Frost on Bridges and Roadways in Iowa, HR-305, 1991

An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.

Improvement of therapeutic drug monitoring of imatinib by Bayesian prediction of trough levels. Personalized drug dosage

Aims: Plasma concentrations of imatinib differ largely between patients despite same dosage, owing to large inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. As the drug concentration at the end of the dosage interval (Cmin) correlates with treatment response and tolerability, monitoring of Cmin is suggested for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib. Due to logistic difficulties, random sampling during the dosage interval is however often performed in clinical practice, thus rendering the respective results not informative regarding Cmin values.Objectives: (I) To extrapolate randomly measured imatinib concentrations to more informative Cmin using classical Bayesian forecasting. (II) To extend the classical Bayesian method to account for correlation between PK parameters. (III) To evaluate the predictive performance of both methods.Methods: 31 paired blood samples (random and trough levels) were obtained from 19 cancer patients under imatinib. Two Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) methods were implemented: (A) a classical method ignoring correlation between PK parameters, and (B) an extended one accounting for correlation. Both methods were applied to estimate individual PK parameters, conditional on random observations and covariate-adjusted priors from a population PK model. The PK parameter estimates were used to calculate trough levels. Relative prediction errors (PE) were analyzed to evaluate accuracy (one-sample t-test) and to compare precision between the methods (F-test to compare variances).Results: Both Bayesian MAP methods allowed non-biased predictions of individual Cmin compared to observations: (A) - 7% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 4 %, p = 0.15) and (B) - 4% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 10 %, p = 0.69). Relative standard deviations of actual observations from predictions were 22% (A) and 30% (B), i.e. comparable to the intraindividual variability reported. Precision was not improved by taking into account correlation between PK parameters (p = 0.22).Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian extrapolation to maximum likelihood Cmin. Classical Bayesian estimation can be applied for TDM without the need to include correlation between PK parameters. Both methods could be adapted in the future to evaluate other individual pharmacokinetic measures correlated to clinical outcomes, such as area under the curve(AUC).

Bayesian-MCMC inversion of time-lapse geophysical data to characterize vadose zone hydraulic behaviour

Geophysical methods have the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties in the unsaturated zone. In particular, time-lapse geophysical data, when coupled with a hydrological model and inverted stochastically, may allow for the effective estimation of subsurface hydraulic parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. In this study, we use a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach to investigate how much information regarding vadose zone hydraulic properties can be retrieved from time-lapse crosshole GPR data collected at the Arrenaes field site in Denmark during a forced infiltration experiment.

Effect of Video Camera-Based Remote Roadway Condition Monitoring on Snow Removal-Related Maintenance Operations. 2014

Remote monitoring through the use of cameras is widely utilized for traffic operation, but has not been utilized widely for roadway maintenance operations. The Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) has implemented a new remote monitoring system, referred to as a Cloud-enabled Remote Video Streaming (CRVS) camera system for snow removal-related maintenance operations in the winter. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of the CRVS camera system in snow removal-related maintenance operations. This study was conducted in two parts: opinion surveys of maintenance station supervisors and an analysis on snow removal-related maintenance costs. The responses to the opinion surveys mostly displayed positive reviews of the use of the CRVS cameras. On a scale of 1 (least effective) to 5 (most effective), the average overall effectiveness given by the station supervisors was 4.3. An expedition trip for this study was defined as a trip that was made to just check the roadways if snow-removal was necessary. The average of the responses received from surveys was calculated to be a 33 percent reduction in expedition trips. For the second part of this study, an analysis was performed on the snow removal-related maintenance cost data provided by UDOT to see if the installation of a CRVS camera had an effect in reducing expedition trips. This expedition cost comparison was performed for 10 sets of maintenance stations within Utah. It was difficult to make any definitive inferences from the comparison of expedition costs over the years for which precipitation and expedition cost data were available; hence a statistical analysis was performed using the Mixed Model ANOVA. This analysis resulted in an average of 14 percent higher ratio of expedition costs at maintenance stations with a CRVS camera before the installation of the camera compared to the ratio of expedition costs after the installation of the camera. This difference was not proven to be statistically significant at the 95 percent confident level, but indicated that the installation of CRVS cameras was on the average helpful in reducing expedition costs and may be considered practically significant. It is recommended that more detailed and consistent maintenance cost records be prepared for accurate analysis of cost records for this type of study in the future.

Phylogenetics of Olea (Oleaceae) based on plastid and nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences: tertiary climatic shifts and lineage differentiation times.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The genus Olea (Oleaceae) includes approx. 40 taxa of evergreen shrubs and trees classified in three subgenera, Olea, Paniculatae and Tetrapilus, the first of which has two sections (Olea and Ligustroides). Olive trees (the O. europaea complex) have been the subject of intensive research, whereas little is known about the phylogenetic relationships among the other species. To clarify the biogeographical history of this group, a molecular analysis of Olea and related genera of Oleaceae is thus necessary. METHODS: A phylogeny was built of Olea and related genera based on sequences of the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer-1 and four plastid regions. Lineage divergence and the evolution of abaxial peltate scales, the latter character linked to drought adaptation, were dated using a Bayesian method. KEY RESULTS: Olea is polyphyletic, with O. ambrensis and subgenus Tetrapilus not sharing a most recent common ancestor with the main Olea clade. Partial incongruence between nuclear and plastid phylogenetic reconstructions suggests a reticulation process in the evolution of subgenus Olea. Estimates of divergence times for major groups of Olea during the Tertiary were obtained. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates the necessity of revising current taxonomic boundaries in Olea. The results also suggest that main lines of evolution were promoted by major Tertiary climatic shifts: (1) the split between subgenera Olea and Paniculatae appears to have taken place at the Miocene-Oligocene boundary; (2) the separation of sections Ligustroides and Olea may have occurred during the Early Miocene following the Mi-1 glaciation; and (3) the diversification within these sections (and the origin of dense abaxial indumentum in section Olea) was concomitant with the aridification of Africa in the Late Miocene.

The estimation of PMP and PMF on alpine basins in Switzerland

This paper presents a very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of precipitation and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the flood on a catchment area, using a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) leading to a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flows, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the exfiltration and the snowmelt. This model was applied to several Swiss basins using measured rain, with results showing a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation proves that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type. In this article we present some results obtained using a PMP rainfall and the developed model.