Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Kirjan tie lukijalle : Kirjakauppojen vakiintuminen Suomessa 1740 - 1860

Books Paths to Readers describes the history of the origins and consolidation of modern and open book stores in Finland 1740 1860. The thesis approaches the book trade as a part of a print culture. Instead of literary studies choice to concentrate on texts and writers, book history seeks to describe the print culture of a society and how the literary activities and societies interconnect. For book historians, printed works are creations of various individuals and groups: writers, printers, editors, book sellers, censors, critics and finally, readers. They all take part in the creation, delivery and interpretation of printed works. The study reveals the ways selling and distributing books have influenced the printed works and the literary and print culture. The research period 1740 1860 covers the so-called second revolution of the book, or the modernisation of the print culture. The thesis describes the history of 60 book stores and their 96 owners. The study concentrates on three themes: firstly, how the particular book trade network became a central institution for printed works distribution, secondly what were the relations between cosmopolitan European book markets and the national cultural sphere, and thirdly how book stores functioned as cultural institutions and business enterprises. Book stores that have a varied assortment and are targeted to all readers became the main institution for book trade in Finland during 1740 1860. It happened because of three features. First, the book binders monopoly on selling bound copies in Sweden was abolished in 1740s. As a consequence entrepreneurs could concentrate solely to trade activities and offer copies from various publishers at their stores. Secondly the common business model of bartering was replaced by selling copies for cash, first in the German book trade centre Leipzig in 1770s. The change intensified book markets activities and Finnish book stores foreign connections. Thirdly, after Finland was annexed to the Russian empire in 1809, the Grand duchy s administration steered foreign book trade to book stores (because of censorship demands). Up to 1830 s book stores were available only in Helsinki and Turku. During next ten years book stores opened in six regional centres. The early entrepreneurs ran usually vertical businesses consisting of printing, publishing and distribution activities. This strategy lowered costs, eased the delivery of printed works and helped to create elaborated centres for all book activities. These book stores main clientele consisted of the Swedish speaking gentry. During late 1840s various opinion leaders called for the development of a national Finnish print culture, and also book stores. As a result, during the five years before the beginning of the Crimean war (1853 1856) book stores were opened in almost all Finnish towns: at the beginning of the war 36 book stores operated in 21 towns. The later book sellers, mainly functioning in small towns among Finnish speaking people, settled usually strictly for selling activities. Book stores received most of their revenues from selling foreign titles. Swedish, German, French and Belgian (pirate editions of popular French novels) books were widely available for the multilingual gentry. Foreign titles and copies brought in most of the revenues. Censorship inspections or unfavourable custom fees would not limit the imports. Even if the local Finnish print production steadily rose, many copies, even titles, were never delivered via book stores. Only during the 1840 s and 1850 s the most advanced publishers would concentrate on creating publishing programmes and delivering their titles via book stores. Book sellers regulated commissions were small. They got even smaller because of large amounts of unsold copies, various and usual misunderstandings of consignments and accounts or plain accidents that destroyed shipments and warehouses. Also, the cultural aim of a creating large and assortments and the tendency of short selling periods demanded professional entrepreneurship, which many small town book sellers however lacked. In the midst of troublesome business efforts, co-operation and mutual concern of the book market s entrepreneurs were the key elements of the trade, although on local level book sellers would compete, sometimes even ferociously. The difficult circumstances (new censorship decree of 1850, Crimean war) and lack of entrepreneurship, experience and customers meant that half of the book stores opened in 1845 1860 was shut in less than five years. In 1858 the few leading publishers established The Finnish Book Publishers Association. Its first task was to create new business rules and manners for the book trade. The association s activities began to professionalise the whole network, but at the same time the earlier independence of regional publishing and selling enterprises diminished greatly. The consolidation of modern and open book store network in Finland is a history of a slow and complex development without clear signs of a beginning or an end. The ideal book store model was rarely accomplished in its all features. Nevertheless, book stores became the norm of the book trade. They managed to offer larger selections, reached larger clienteles and maintained constant activity better than any other book distribution model. In essential, the book stores methods have not changed up to present times.

Phosphorus nutrition and tolerance of cotton to water stress: II. Water relations, free and bound water and leaf expansion rate

In previous experiments, increased leaf-Phosphorus (P) content with increasing P supply enhanced the individual leaf expansion and water content of fresh cotton leaves in a severely drying soil. In this paper, we report on the bulk water content of leaves and its components, free and bound water, along with other measures of plant water status, in expanding cotton leaves of various ages in a drying soil with different P concentrations. The bound water in living tissue is more likely to play a major role in tolerance to abiotic stresses by maintaining the structural integrity and/or cell wall extensibility of the leaves, whilst an increased amount of free water might be able to enhance solute accumulation, leading to better osmotic adjustment and tolerance to water stress, and maintenance of the volumes of sub-cellular compartments for expansive leaf growth. There were strong correlations between leaf-P%, leaf water (total, free and bound water) and leaf expansion rate (LER) under water stress conditions in a severely drying soil. Increased soil-P enhanced the uptake of P from a drying soil, leading to increased supply of osmotically active inorganic solutes to the cells in growing leaves. This appears to have led to the accumulation of free water and more bound water, ultimately leading to increased leaf expansion rates as compared to plants in low P soil under similar water stress conditions. The greater amount of bound and free water in the high-P plants was not necessarily associated with changes in cell turgor, and appears to have maintained the cell-wall properties and extensibility under water stressed conditions in soils that are nutritionally P-deficient.

Phase relations in the system Ta-Rh-O and thermodynamic properties of TaRhO4

Phase relations in the system Ta-Rh-O were determined by analysis of quenched samples corresponding to thirteen compositions inside the ternary triangle after equilibration at 1273 K. All the Ta-Rh alloys were found to be in equilibrium with Ta2O5. Only one ternary oxide TaRhO4 was detected. Based on phase relations in the ternary system, a solid-state electrochemical cell, incorporating calcia-stabilized zirconia as the electrolyte, was designed to measure the standard Gibbs energy of formation (Delta G degrees, J mol(-1)) of TaRhO4 in the temperature range from 900 to 1300 K. For the reaction, 1/2 beta-Ta2O5 + 1/2 Rh2O3(ortho) -> TaRhO4 Delta G degrees = -42993 + 5.676T (+/- 85) The calculated decomposition temperatures of TaRhO4 are 1644 +/- 5K in pure O-2 and 1543 +/- 5K in air at a total pressure p(o) = 0.1 MPa. Thermodynamic properties of TaRhO4 at 298.15K have been evaluated from the results. The limited experimental thermodynamic data for Rh-rich alloys available in the literature are in fair accord with Miedema's model. The Gibbs energies of formation of the different phases in the binary system Ta-Rh were estimated based on these inputs, consistent with the binary phase diagram. Based on the thermodynamic information on the stability of various phases, an oxygen potential diagram for the system Ta-Rh-O at 1273K was constructed. Also presented are temperature-composition diagrams for the ternary system at constant oxygen partial pressures (po(2)/p(o) = 0.212 and 10(-6)) calculated form the basic data.

Global trade in ornamental fish from an Australian perspective: The case for revised import risk analysis and management strategies

Over 1 billion ornamental fish comprising more than 4000 freshwater and 1400 marine species are traded internationally each year, with 8-10 million imported into Australia alone. Compared to other commodities, the pathogens and disease translocation risks associated with this pattern of trade have been poorly documented. The aim of this study was to conduct an appraisal of the effectiveness of risk analysis and quarantine controls as they are applied according to the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement in Australia. Ornamental fish originate from about 100 countries and hazards are mostly unknown; since 2000 there have been 16-fold fewer scientific publications on ornamental fish disease compared to farmed fish disease, and 470 fewer compared to disease in terrestrial species (cattle). The import quarantine policies of a range of countries were reviewed and classified as stringent or non-stringent based on the levels of pre-border and border controls. Australia has a stringent policy which includes pre-border health certification and a mandatory quarantine period at border of 1-3 weeks in registered quarantine premises supervised by government quarantine staff. Despite these measures there have been many disease incursions as well as establishment of significant exotic viral, bacterial, fungal, protozoal and metazoan pathogens from ornamental fish in farmed native Australian fish and free-living introduced species. Recent examples include Megalocytivirus and Aeromonas salmonicida atypical strain. In 2006, there were 22 species of alien ornamental fish with established breeding populations in waterways in Australia and freshwater plants and molluscs have also been introduced, proving a direct transmission pathway for establishment of pathogens in native fish species. Australia's stringent quarantine policies for imported ornamental fish are based on import risk analysis under the SPS agreement but have not provided an acceptable level of protection (ALOP) consistent with government objectives to prevent introduction of pests and diseases, promote development of future aquaculture industries or maintain biodiversity. It is concluded that the risk analysis process described by the Office International des Epizooties under the SPS agreement cannot be used in a meaningful way for current patterns of ornamental fish trade. Transboundary disease incursions will continue and exotic pathogens will become established in new regions as a result of the ornamental fish trade, and this will be an international phenomenon. Ornamental fish represent a special case in live animal trade where OIE guidelines for risk analysis need to be revised. Alternatively, for countries such as Australia with implied very high ALOP, the number of species traded and the number of sources permitted need to be dramatically reduced to facilitate hazard identification, risk assessment and import quarantine controls. Lead papers of the eleventh symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE), Cairns, Australia

Evaluation of Charges for Power Transmission and Losses in Bilateral Power Contracts

The paper presents a method for transmission loss charge allocation in deregulated power systems based on Relative Electrical Distance (RED) concept. Based on RED between the generator and load nodes and the predefined bilateral power contracts, charge evaluation is carried out. Generally through some power exchange mechanism a set of bilateral contracts are determined that facilitate bilateral agreements between the generation and distribution entities. In this paper the possible charges incurred in meeting loads like generation charge, transmission charge and charge due to losses are evaluated. Case studies have been carried out on a few practical equivalent systems. Due to space limitation results for a sample 5 bus system are presented considering ideal load/generation power contracts and deviated load/generation power contracts. Extensive numerical testing indicates that the proposed allocation scheme produces loss allocations that are appropriate and that behave in a physically reasonable manner.

Phase relations between Al2O3---Cr2O3 and FeAl2O4---FeCr2O4 solid solutions at 1823 K

Tie-lines between the corundum and spinel solid solutions have been determined experimentally at 1823 K. Next, activities of FeCr2O4 and FeAl2O4 in the spinel solid solution were determined by combining the tie-line data with literature values for the activities of Cr2O3 and Al2O3 in the corundum phase. Activities and the Gibbs energy of mixing for the spinel solid solution were also obtained from a model based on cation distribution between nonequivalent crystallographic sites in the oxide lattice. The difference between the Gibbs energy of mixing obtained experimentally and from the model has been attributed to a strain enthalpy term which is relatively unchanged in magnitude from the reported at 1373 K. The integral enthalpy of mixing obtained from experimental data at 1373 and 1823 K using the second law is compared with the model result.

Resolution of Cryptic Species Complexes of Tephritid Pests to Enhance SIT Application and Facilitate International Trade

Tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are considered by far the most important group of horticultural pests worldwide. Female fruit flies lay eggs directly into ripening fruit, where the maggots feed causing fruit loss. Each and every continent is plagued by a number of fruit fly pests, both indigenous as well as invasive ones, causing tremendous economic losses. In addition to the direct losses through damage, they can negatively impact commodity trade through restrictions to market access. The quarantine and regulatory controls put in place to manage them are expensive, while the on-farm control costs and loss of crop affect the general well-being of growers. These constraints can have huge implications on loss in revenues and limitations to developing fruit and vegetable-based agroindustries in developing, emergent and developed nations. Because fruit flies are a global problem, the study of their biology and management requires significant international attention to overcome the hurdles they pose. The Joint Food and Agriculture Organisation / International Atomic Energy Agency (FAO/IAEA) Programme on Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture has been on the foreground in assisting Member States in developing and validating environment-friendly fruit fly suppression systems to support viable fresh fruit and vegetable production and export industries. Such international attention has resulted in the successful development and validation of a Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) package for the Mediterranean fruit fly. Although demands for R&D support with respect to Mediterranean fruit fly are diminishing due to successful integration of this package into sustainable control programmes against this pest in many countries, there were increasing demands from Member States in Africa, Asia and Latin America, to address other major fruit fly pests and a related, but sometimes neglected issue of tephritid species complexes of economic importance. Any research, whether it is basic or applied, requires a taxonomic framework that provides reliable and universally recognized entities and names. Among the currently recognized major fruit fly pests, there are groups of species whose morphology is very similar or identical, but biologically they are distinct species. As such, some insect populations that are grouped taxonomically within the same pest species, display different biological and genetic traits and show reproductive isolation which suggest that they are different species. On the other hand, different species may have been taxonomically described, but there may be doubt as to whether they actually represent distinct biological species or merely geographical variants of the same species. This uncertain taxonomic status has practical implications on the effective development and use of the SIT against such complexes, particularly at the time of determining which species to mass-rear, and significantly affects international movement of fruit and vegetables through the establishment of trade barriers to important agricultural commodities which are hosts to these pest tephritid species...

A reconsideration of phase relations in the Ti-Al-Mo and Ti-Al systems

A microstructural and X-ray investigation of Ti-AI-Mo alloys Ti-31 Al-15 Mo, Ti-31 Al-13 Mo, Ti-31Al-9Mo and Ti-35Al-9Mo (containing the Ti3Al, TiAl and β phases) indicates that the existing phase diagram of the ternary system for this composition range published by Ge Dhzhi-Min and Pylaeva is in error above 1473 K. An analysis of phase relations reveals that the error has arisen from their use of the Ti-AI diagram due to Bumps, Kessler and Hansen as a basis for generating the ternary. It is shown that a phase diagram of the ternary, consistent with the experimental results, can be generated using a version of the Ti-AI system due to Margolin. Simple geometric arguments are used to build up a new semi-quantitative description of the Ti-AI-Mo system which can be used as a basis for a detailed investigation of phase equilibria in this system.

Central America: Labor Reports and Child Labor Reports Pursuant to the Trade Act of 2002, Section 2102(c)(8)-(9)

[Excerpt] These comments are in response to the “Request for Information Concerning Labor Rights in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua and their Laws Governing Exploitative Child Labor” published at 68 Fed. Reg. 19580 (April 21, 2003). This Request for Information was issued pursuant to Section 2102(c)(8) and (9) of the Trade Act of 2002, Pub. L. 107-210, which requires the President, with respect to any proposed trade agreement, to submit to Congress a “meaningful labor rights report” and a “report describing the extent to which the country or countries that are parties to the agreement have in effect laws governing exploitative child labor.”

The Context-integrity of the global carbon regime: The relevance and impact of the World Trade Organization

In the study of the integrity of the global carbon regime there are a number of institutions that must be considered for their impacts on this system. In particular, the subject matter of this chapter is concerned with the main international institution for trade, the World Trade Organization (the WTO). Otherwise stated, this chapter is concerned with how the institutional integrity of the global carbon regime aligns with the values and policy objectives of the WTO. This is done with a view to consider whether the global carbon regime aligns with these values and objectives in a way demonstrative of context-integrity. This alignment is not a single-sided undertaking and, therefore, it is essential that the underlying values of the WTO themselves align with the global carbon regime. I suggest this is particularly crucial given the importance of the objectives of the climate change regime, and the scientific predictions of the current climate projections.

Rootzone amendments to improve soil moisture relations under newly-laid sod

Three experiments were conducted on the use of water retaining amendments under newly-laid turf mats. The work focused on the first 12 weeks of establishment. In soils that already possessed a good water-holding capacity, water retaining amendments did not provide any benefit. On a sand-based profile, a rooting depth of 200 mm was achieved with soil amendment products within three weeks of laying turf. Most products differed in their performance relative to each other at each three weekly measurement interval. Polyacrylamide gels gave superior results when the crystals were incorporated into the soil profile. They were not suitable for broadcasting at the soil/sod interface. Finer grades of crystals were less likely to be subject to excessive expansion than medium grade crystals after heavy rainfall. Turf establishment was more responsive to products at higher application rates, however these higher rates may result in surface stability problems.

Modelling the nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency and water use efficiency of wheat in eastern Australia.

The nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency (yield per unit nitrogen uptake) and water use efficiency (yield per unit evapotranspiration) is widespread and results from well established, multiple effects of nitrogen availability on the water, carbon and nitrogen economy of crops. Here we used a crop model (APSIM) to simulate the yield, evapotranspiration, soil evaporation and nitrogen uptake of wheat, and analysed yield responses to water, nitrogen and climate using a framework analogous to the rate-duration model of determinate growth. The relationship between modelled grain yield (Y) and evapotranspiration (ET) was fitted to a linear-plateau function to derive three parameters: maximum yield (Ymax), the ET break-point when yield reaches its maximum (ET#), and the rate of yield response in the linear phase ([Delta]Y/[Delta]ET). Against this framework, we tested the hypothesis that nitrogen deficit reduces maximum yield by reducing both the rate ([Delta]Y/[Delta]ET) and the range of yield response to evapotranspiration, i.e. ET# - Es, where Es is modelled median soil evaporation. Modelled data reproduced the nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency and water use efficiency in a transect from Horsham (36°S) to Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Increasing nitrogen supply from 50 to 250 kg N ha-1 reduced yield per unit nitrogen uptake from 29 to 12 kg grain kg-1 N and increased yield per unit evapotranspiration from 6 to 15 kg grain ha-1 mm-1 at Emerald. The same increment in nitrogen supply reduced yield per unit nitrogen uptake from 30 to 25 kg grain kg-1 N and increased yield per unit evapotranspiration from 6 to 25 kg grain ha-1 mm-1 at Horsham. Maximum yield ranged from 0.9 to 6.4 t ha-1. Consistent with our working hypothesis, reductions in maximum yield with nitrogen deficit were associated with both reduction in the rate of yield response to ET and compression of the range of yield response to ET. Against the notion of managing crops to maximise water use efficiency in low rainfall environments, we emphasise the trade-off between water use efficiency and nitrogen utilisation efficiency, particularly under conditions of high nitrogen-to-grain price ratio. The rate-range framework to characterise the relationship between yield and evapotranspiration is useful to capture this trade-off as the parameters were responsive to both nitrogen supply and climatic factors.

Derivation of the decoupling relations for composite models from anomaly constraints and n-independence

It is shown, in the composite fermion models studied by 't Hooft and others, that the requirements of Adler-Bell-Jackiw anomaly matching and n-independence are sufficient to fix the indices of composite representations. The third requirement, namely that of decoupling relations, follows from these two constraints in such models and hence is inessential.