Larcform 1 - single column model intercomparison of Arctic air formation, link to model results in NetCDF format

Weather and climate models struggle to represent lower tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles and surface fluxes in Arctic winter, not least because they lack or misrepresent physical processes that are specific to high latitudes. The Arctic boundary layer in winter has been observed to be in either a radiatively clear or cloudy state: The radiatively clear state is characterized by strong surface radiative cooling leading to the build-up of surface-based temperature inversions, whereas the cloudy state occurs when cloud liquid water is present in the atmospheric column, allowing little or no surface radiative cooling and leading to weaker and typically elevated temperature inversions. Many large-scale models have been shown to lack the cloudy state, and some do substantially underestimate stability in the clear state. We here present results from the first Lagrangian ARCtic air FORMation experiment (Larcform 1), a GASS (Global atmospheric system studies) single-column model intercomparison which reproduces these biases of large-scale models in an idealised setup.

Geochemical and palynological measurements from the ODP Leg 189 at Site 1172 on the East Tasman Plateau

A brief (~150 kyr) period of widespread global average surface warming marks the transition between the Paleocene and Eocene epochs, ~56 million years ago. This so-called "Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum" (PETM) is associated with the massive injection of 13C-depleted carbon, reflected in a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE). Biotic responses include a global abundance peak (acme) of the subtropical dinoflagellate Apectodinium. Here we identify the PETM in a marine sedimentary sequence deposited on the East Tasman Plateau at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1172 and show, based on the organic paleothermometer TEX86, that southwest Pacific sea surface temperatures increased from ~26 °C to ~33°C during the PETM. Such temperatures before, during and after the PETM are >10 °C warmer than predicted by paleoclimate model simulations for this latitude. In part, this discrepancy may be explained by potential seasonal biases in the TEX86 proxy in polar oceans. Additionally, the data suggest that not only Arctic, but also Antarctic temperatures may be underestimated in simulations of ancient greenhouse climates by current generation fully coupled climate models. An early influx of abundant Apectodinium confirms that environmental change preceded the CIE on a global scale. Organic dinoflagellate cyst assemblages suggest a local decrease in the amount of river run off reaching the core site during the PETM, possibly in concert with eustatic rise. Moreover, the assemblages suggest changes in seasonality of the regional hydrological system and storm activity. Finally, significant variation in dinoflagellate cyst assemblages during the PETM indicates that southwest Pacific climates varied significantly over time scales of 103 - 104 years during this event, a finding comparable to similar studies of PETM successions from the New Jersey Shelf.

Ex situ respiration rates measured in water column samples during the METEOR cruise M87/1 in April 2012

Oxygen concentration and rate of change of oxygen were measured using the Unisense Oxygen Microsensor System. Water from different depth was taken from CTD attached niskin bottle. Measurements were conducted in 2 ml vials provided by Unisense and lasted for a minimum of two minutes after a stable rate was achieved. The sampling interval was 6 seconds. Transport containers, tubes and vials for measurements were covered with light proof black foil for dark-measurements. Measurements labeled "unfiltered" were passed through a 200 µm sieve in order to remove potential biases stemming from individual meso-zooplankton. Measurements labeled "filtered" were passed through a 0.8 µm polycarbonate filter placed on top of a wetted GF/F filter.

Paleotemperature reconstructions on sediment core GIK161603-3

Different proxies for sea surface temperature (SST) often exhibit divergent trends for deglacial warming in tropical regions, hampering our understanding of the phase relationship between tropical SSTs and continental ice volume at glacial terminations. To reconcile divergent SST trends, we report reconstructions of two commonly used paleothermometers (the foraminifera G. ruber Mg/Ca and the alkenone unsaturation index) from a marine sediment core collected in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean encompassing the last 37,000 years. Our results show that SSTs derived from the alkenone unsaturation index (UK'37) are consistently warmer than those derived from Mg/Ca by ~2-3°C except for the Heinrich Event 1. In addition, the initial timing for the deglacial warming of alkenone SST started at ~15.6 ka, which lags behind that of Mg/Ca temperatures by 2.5 kyr. We argue that the discrepancy between the two SST proxies reflects seasonal differences between summer and winter rather than post-depositional processes or sedimentary biases. The UK'37 SST record clearly mimics the deglacial SST trend recorded in the North Atlantic region for the earlier part of the termination, indicating the early deglacial warming trend attributed to local summer temperatures was likely mediated by changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at the onset of the deglaciation, In contrast, the glacial to interglacial SST pattern recorded by G. ruber Mg/Ca probably reflects cold season SSTs. This indicates that the cold season SSTs was likely mediated by climate changes in the southern hemisphere, as it closely tracks the Antarctic timing of deglaciation. Therefore our study reveals that the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean seasonal SST was closely linked to climate changes occurring in both hemispheres. The austral summer and winter recorded by each proxy is further supported with seasonal SST trends modeled by AOGCMs for our core site. Our interpretation that the alkenone and Mg/Ca SSTs are seasonally biased may also explain similar proxy mismatches observed in other tropical regions at the onset of the last termination.

Shipborne ocean color remote sensing

In this paper, modernized shipborne procedures are presented to collect and process above-water radiometry for remote sensing applications. A setup of five radiometers and a bidirectional camera system, which provides panoramic sea surface and sky images, is proposed for the collection of high-resolution radiometric quantities. Images from the camera system can be used to determine sky state and potential glint, whitecaps, or foam contamination. A peak in the observed remote sensing reflectance RRS spectra between 750-780 nm was typically found in spectra with relatively high surface reflected glint (SRG), which suggests this waveband could be a useful SRG indicator. Simplified steps for computing uncertainties in SRG corrected RRS are proposed and discussed. The potential of utilizing "unweighted multimodel averaging," which is the average of four or more common SRG correction models, is examined to determine the best approximation RRS. This best approximation RRS provides an estimate of RRS based on various SRG correction models established using radiative transfer simulations and field investigations. Applying the average RRS provides a measure of the inherent uncertainties or biases that result from a user subjectively choosing any one SRG correction model. Comparisons between inherent and apparent optical property derived observations were used to assess the robustness of the SRG multimodel averaging ap- proach. Correlations among the standard SRG models were completed to determine the degree of association or similarities between the SRG models. Results suggest that the choice of glint models strongly affects derived RRS values and can also influence the blue to green band ratios used for modeling biogeochemical parameters such as for chlorophyll a. The objective here is to present a uniform and traceable methodology for determining ship- borne RRS measurements and its associated errors due to glint correction and to ensure the direct comparability of these measurements in future investigations. We encourage the ocean color community to publish radiometric field measurements with matching and complete metadata in open access repositories.

Global Ocean Colour for Carbon Cycle Research (full product set)

In 2005, the International Ocean Colour Coordinating Group (IOCCG) convened a working group to examine the state of the art in ocean colour data merging, which showed that the research techniques had matured sufficiently for creating long multi-sensor datasets (IOCCG, 2007). As a result, ESA initiated and funded the DUE GlobColour project (http://www.globcolour.info/) to develop a satellite based ocean colour data set to support global carbon-cycle research. It aims to satisfy the scientific requirement for a long (10+ year) time-series of consistently calibrated global ocean colour information with the best possible spatial coverage. This has been achieved by merging data from the three most capable sensors: SeaWiFS on GeoEye's Orbview-2 mission, MODIS on NASA's Aqua mission and MERIS on ESA's ENVISAT mission. In setting up the GlobColour project, three user organisations were invited to help. Their roles are to specify the detailed user requirements, act as a channel to the broader end user community and to provide feedback and assessment of the results. The International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP) based at UNESCO in Paris provides direct access to the carbon cycle modelling community's requirements and to the modellers themselves who will use the final products. The UK Met Office's National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF) in Exeter, UK, provides an understanding of the requirements of oceanography users, and the IOCCG bring their understanding of the global user needs and valuable advice on best practice within the ocean colour science community. The three year project kicked-off in November 2005 under the leadership of ACRI-ST (France). The first year was a feasibility demonstration phase that was successfully concluded at a user consultation workshop organised by the Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, France, in December 2006. Error statistics and inter-sensor biases were quantified by comparison with insitu measurements from moored optical buoys and ship based campaigns, and used as an input to the merging. The second year was dedicated to the production of the time series. In total, more than 25 Tb of input (level 2) data have been ingested and 14 Tb of intermediate and output products created, with 4 Tb of data distributed to the user community. Quality control (QC) is provided through the Diagnostic Data Sets (DDS), which are extracted sub-areas covering locations of in-situ data collection or interesting oceanographic phenomena. This Full Product Set (FPS) covers global daily merged ocean colour products in the time period 1997-2006 and is also freely available for use by the worldwide science community at http://www.globcolour.info/data_access_full_prod_set.html. The GlobColour service distributes global daily, 8-day and monthly data sets at 4.6 km resolution for, chlorophyll-a concentration, normalised water-leaving radiances (412, 443, 490, 510, 531, 555 and 620 nm, 670, 681 and 709 nm), diffuse attenuation coefficient, coloured dissolved and detrital organic materials, total suspended matter or particulate backscattering coefficient, turbidity index, cloud fraction and quality indicators. Error statistics from the initial sensor characterisation are used as an input to the merging methods and propagate through the merging process to provide error estimates for the output merged products. These error estimates are a key component of GlobColour as they are invaluable to the users; particularly the modellers who need them in order to assimilate the ocean colour data into ocean simulations. An intensive phase of validation has been undertaken to assess the quality of the data set. In addition, inter-comparisons between the different merged datasets will help in further refining the techniques used. Both the final products and the quality assessment were presented at a second user consultation in Oslo on 20-22 November 2007 organised by the Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA); presentations are available on the GlobColour WWW site. On request of the ESA Technical Officer for the GlobColour project, the FPS data set was mirrored in the PANGAEA data library.

Dissolution index and shell weights of planktonic foraminifera

Finding the ideal deep-sea CaCO3 dissolution proxy is essential for quantifying the role of the marine carbonate system in regulating atmospheric pCO2 over millennia. We explore the potential of using the Globorotalia menardii fragmentation index (MFI) and size-normalized foraminifer shell weight (SNSW) as complementary indicators of deep-sea CaCO3 dissolution. MFI has strong correlations with bottom water [CO3]2-, modeled estimates of percent CaCO3 dissolved, and Mg/Ca in Pulleniatina obliquiloculata in core top samples along a depth transect on the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP) where surface ocean temperature variation is minimal. SNSW of P. obliquiloculata and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei have weak correlations with MFI-based percent dissolved, Mg/Ca in P. obliquiloculata shells and bottom water [CO3]2- on the OJP. In core top samples from the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), SNSW of P. obliquiloculata has moderate to strong correlations with both MFI-based percent CaCO3 dissolved estimates and surface ocean environmental parameters. SNSW of N. dutertrei shells shows a latitudinal distribution in the EEP and a moderately strong correlation with MFI-based percent dissolved estimates when samples from the equatorial part of the region are excluded. Our results suggest that there may potentially be multiple genotypes of N. dutertrei in the EEP which may be reflected in their shell weight. MFI-based percent CaCO3 dissolved estimates have no quantifiable relationship with any surface ocean environmental parameter in the EEP. Thus MFI acts as a reliable quantitative CaCO3 dissolution proxy insensitive to environmental biases within calcification waters of foraminifers.

Vertical specialisation indicator based on supply-driven input-output model

“Import content of exports”, based on Leontief’s demand-driven input-output model, has been widely used as an indicator to measure a country’s degree of participation in vertical specialisation trade. At a sectoral level, this indicator represents the share of inter-mediates imported by all sectors embodied in a given sector’s exported output. However, this indicator only reflects one aspect of vertical specialisation – the demand side. This paper discusses the possibility of using the input-output model developed by Ghosh to measure the vertical specialisation from the perspective of the supply side. At a sector level, the Ghosh type indicator measures the share of imported intermediates used in a sector’s production that are subsequently embodied in exports by all sectors. We estimate these two indicators of vertical specialisation for 47 selected economies for 1995, 2000, 2005 using the OECD’s harmonized input-output database. In addition, the potential biases of both indicators due to the treatment of net withdrawals in inventories, are also discussed.

How serious is the omission of bilateral tariff rates in gravity?

In this paper, using the worldwide dataset of bilateral tariff rates, we explore how serious the omission of bilateral tariff rates in gravity is. Our findings are as follow. Firstly, the omission of bilateral tariff rates seems not to be so serious in terms of omitted-variable biases because the coefficients for the usual gravity variables do not change before or after their inclusion. Secondly, while the widely-used dummy variable of regional trade agreement could not play an alternative role in place of tariff rates, the inclusion of time-invariant pair fixed effects in addition to the time-variant importer fixed effects and exporter fixed effects accounts for the omission of tariff rates. The inclusion of those fixed effects makes the coefficient for bilateral tariff rates insignificant.

Impact of diagonal cumulation rule on FTA utilization : evidence from bilateral and multilateral FTAs between Japan and Thailand

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of diagonal cumulation on free trade agreement (FTA) utilization by exploring Thai exports to Japan under two kinds of FTA schemes. While the one scheme adopts bilateral cumulation, the other scheme does diagonal cumulation. Comparing trade under these two kinds of FTAs, we can examine the effect of diagonal cumulation without relying on not only the variation in cumulation rules across country pairs but also the variation across years. In short, our estimates do not suffer from biases from time-variant elements and country pair-specific elements. As a result, our estimates show around 4% trade creation effect of diagonal cumulation, which is much smaller than the estimates in the previous studies (around 15%).

Agglomeration and firm-level productivity : a Bayesian spatial approach

This paper estimates the impact of industrial agglomeration on firm-level productivity in Chinese manufacturing sectors. To account for spatial autocorrelation across regions, we formulate a hierarchical spatial model at the firm level and develop a Bayesian estimation algorithm. A Bayesian instrumental-variables approach is used to address endogeneity bias of agglomeration. Robust to these potential biases, we find that agglomeration of the same industry (i.e. localization) has a productivity-boosting effect, but agglomeration of urban population (i.e. urbanization) has no such effects. Additionally, the localization effects increase with educational levels of employees and the share of intermediate inputs in gross output. These results may suggest that agglomeration externalities occur through knowledge spillovers and input sharing among firms producing similar manufactures.

A note on three factor model of discounting

In Montiel Olea and Strzalecki (2014), authors have axiomatically developed an algorithm to infer the parameters of beta-delta model of cognitive bias (present and future biases). While this is extremely useful, it allows the implied beta to become very large when the response is impatient in the future choices relative to present choices, i.e., when there is a strong future bias. I modify the model to further exponentiate the functional form to get more reasonable beta values.

High-Acoustic-Impedance Tantalum Oxide Layers for Insulating Acoustic Reflectors

This work describes the assessment of the acoustic properties of sputtered tantalum oxide films intended for use as high-impedance films of acoustic reflectors for solidly mounted resonators operating in the gigahertz frequency range. The films are grown by sputtering a metallic tantalum target under different oxygen and argon gas mixtures, total pressures, pulsed dc powers, and substrate biases. The structural properties of the films are assessed through infrared absorption spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction measurements. Their acoustic impedance is assessed by deriving the mass density from X-ray reflectometry measurements and the acoustic velocity from picosecond acoustic spectroscopy and the analysis of the frequency response of the test resonators.

Generic multisensor multitarget bias estimation architecture

Current bias estimation algorithms for air traffic control (ATC) surveillance are focused on radar sensors, but the integration of new sensors (especially automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast and wide area multilateration) demands the extension of traditional procedures. This study describes a generic architecture for bias estimation applicable to multisensor multitarget surveillance systems. It consists on first performing bias estimations using measurements from each target, of a subset of sensors, assumed to be reliable, forming track bias estimations. All track bias estimations are combined to obtain, for each of those sensors, the corresponding sensor bias. Then, sensor bias terms are corrected, to subsequently calculate the target or sensor-target pair specific biases. Once these target-specific biases are corrected, the process is repeated recursively for other sets of less reliable sensors, assuming bias corrected measures from previous iterations are unbiased. This study describes the architecture and outlines the methodology for the estimation and the bias estimation design processes. Then the approach is validated through simulation, and compared with previous methods in the literature. Finally, the study describes the application of the methodology to the design of the bias estimation procedures for a modern ATC surveillance application, specifically for off-line assessment of ATC surveillance performance.

Accurate pedestrian indoor navigation by tightly coupling foot-mounted IMU and RFID measurements

We present a new method to accurately locate persons indoors by fusing inertial navigation system (INS) techniques with active RFID technology. A foot-mounted inertial measuring units (IMUs)-based position estimation method, is aided by the received signal strengths (RSSs) obtained from several active RFID tags placed at known locations in a building. In contrast to other authors that integrate IMUs and RSS with a loose Kalman filter (KF)-based coupling (by using the residuals of inertial- and RSS-calculated positions), we present a tight KF-based INS/RFID integration, using the residuals between the INS-predicted reader-to-tag ranges and the ranges derived from a generic RSS path-loss model. Our approach also includes other drift reduction methods such as zero velocity updates (ZUPTs) at foot stance detections, zero angular-rate updates (ZARUs) when the user is motionless, and heading corrections using magnetometers. A complementary extended Kalman filter (EKF), throughout its 15-element error state vector, compensates the position, velocity and attitude errors of the INS solution, as well as IMU biases. This methodology is valid for any kind of motion (forward, lateral or backward walk, at different speeds), and does not require an offline calibration for the user gait. The integrated INS+RFID methodology eliminates the typical drift of IMU-alone solutions (approximately 1% of the total traveled distance), resulting in typical positioning errors along the walking path (no matter its length) of approximately 1.5 m.