Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions

Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to ‘empty’ reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence.

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Condition monitoring and rating of bridge components in a rail or road network by using SHM systems within SRP

The safety and performance of bridges could be monitored and evaluated by Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems. These systems try to identify and locate the damages in a structure and estimate their severities. Current SHM systems are applied to a single bridge, and they have not been used to monitor the structural condition of a network of bridges. This paper propose a new method which will be used in Synthetic Rating Procedures (SRP) developed by the authors of this paper and utilizes SHM systems for monitoring and evaluating the condition of a network of bridges. Synthetic rating procedures are used to assess the condition of a network of bridges and identify their ratings. As an additional part of the SRP, the method proposed in this paper can continuously monitor the behaviour of a network of bridges and therefore it can assist to prevent the sudden collapses of bridges or the disruptions to their serviceability. The method could be an important part of a bridge management system (BMS) for managers and engineers who work on condition assessment of a network of bridges.

Creating heterogeneity: Evolving use of groupware in a network of freelancers

This contribution is a long-term study of the evolving use of the organization-wide groupware in a service network. We are describing the practices related to organization-wide groupware in conjunction with local groupware-related practices and how they have proceeded since the organization was established. In the discussion of these practices we are focussing on issues such as: 1. tendencies for proliferation and integration, 2. local appropriations of a variety of systems, 3. creative appropriations, including the creation of a unique heterogeneous groupware fabric, 4. the design strategy of multiple parallel experimental use an; 5. the relation between disparate local meanings and successful computer supported cooperative practice. As an overarching theme we are exploring the explanatory value of the concepts of objectification and appropriation as compared to the concepts of design vs. use.

Remote Sensing and Data Collection from Solar Powered Wireless Sensor Network using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle System

Sensor networks for environmental monitoring present enormous benefits to the community and society as a whole. Currently there is a need for low cost, compact, solar powered sensors suitable for deployment in rural areas. The purpose of this research is to develop both a ground based wireless sensor network and data collection using unmanned aerial vehicles. The ground based sensor system is capable of measuring environmental data such as temperature or air quality using cost effective low power sensors. The sensor will be configured such that its data is stored on an ATMega16 microcontroller which will have the capability of communicating with a UAV flying overhead using UAV communication protocols. The data is then either sent to the ground in real time or stored on the UAV using a microcontroller until it lands or is close enough to enable the transmission of data to the ground station.

LiDAR Augmented Optimal Path Planning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle during Remote Sensing at Low Altitude and Network Sensor Data Acquisition

This technical report describes a Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) augmented optimal path planning at low level flight methodology for remote sensing and sampling Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). The UAV is used to perform remote air sampling and data acquisition from a network of sensors on the ground. The data that contains information on the terrain is in the form of a 3D point clouds maps is processed by the algorithms to find an optimal path. The results show that the method and algorithm are able to use the LiDAR data to avoid obstacles when planning a path from a start to a target point. The report compares the performance of the method as the resolution of the LIDAR map is increased and when a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is included. From a practical point of view, the optimal path plan is loaded and works seemingly with the UAV ground station and also shows the UAV ground station software augmented with more accurate LIDAR data.

Submission to the draft Migration Assurance Policy - Improving the transition to the fixed-line national broadband network review

The rights of individuals to self-determination and participation in social, political and economic life are recognised and supported by Articles 1, 3 and 25 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights 1966.4 Article 1 of the United Nations’ Human Rights Council’s Resolution on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights on the Internet of July 2012 confirms individuals have the same rights online as offline. Access to the internet is essential and as such the UN: Calls upon all States to promote and facilitate access to the Internet and international cooperation aimed at the development of media and information and communications facilities in all countries (Article 3) Accordingly, access to the internet per se is a fundamental human right, which requires direct State recognition and support.5 The obligations of the State to ensure its citizens are able, and are enabled, to access the internet, are not matters that should be delegated to commercial parties. Quite simply – access to the internet, and high-speed broadband, by whatever means are “essential services” and therefore “should be treated as any other utility service”...

A new load distribution strategy for linear network with communication delays

In this paper, we propose a new load distribution strategy called `send-and-receive' for scheduling divisible loads, in a linear network of processors with communication delay. This strategy is designed to optimally utilize the network resources and thereby minimizes the processing time of entire processing load. A closed-form expression for optimal size of load fractions and processing time are derived when the processing load originates at processor located in boundary and interior of the network. A condition on processor and link speed is also derived to ensure that the processors are continuously engaged in load distributions. This paper also presents a parallel implementation of `digital watermarking problem' on a personal computer-based Pentium Linear Network (PLN) topology. Experiments are carried out to study the performance of the proposed strategy and results are compared with other strategies found in literature.

Analysis of differential gene expression based on Bayesian estimation of variance

Gene expression is arguably the most important indicator of biological function. Thus identifying differentially expressed genes is one of the main aims of high throughout studies that use microarray and RNAseq platforms to study deregulated cellular pathways. There are many tools for analysing differentia gene expression from transciptomic datasets. The major challenge of this topic is to estimate gene expression variance due to the high amount of ‘background noise’ that is generated from biological equipment and the lack of biological replicates. Bayesian inference has been widely used in the bioinformatics field. In this work, we reveal that the prior knowledge employed in the Bayesian framework also helps to improve the accuracy of differential gene expression analysis when using a small number of replicates. We have developed a differential analysis tool that uses Bayesian estimation of the variance of gene expression for use with small numbers of biological replicates. Our method is more consistent when compared to the widely used cyber-t tool that successfully introduced the Bayesian framework to differential analysis. We also provide a user-friendly web based Graphic User Interface for biologists to use with microarray and RNAseq data. Bayesian inference can compensate for the instability of variance caused when using a small number of biological replicates by using pseudo replicates as prior knowledge. We also show that our new strategy to select pseudo replicates will improve the performance of the analysis. - See more at: http://www.eurekaselect.com/node/138761/article#sthash.VeK9xl5k.dpuf

A Network Model of Static Foam Drainage

On the basis of a more realistic tetrakaidecahedral structure of foam bubbles, a network model of static foam drainage has been developed. The model considers the foam to be made up of films and Plateau borders. The films drain into the adjacent Plateau borders, which in turn form a network through which the liquid moves from the foam to the liquid pool. From the structure, a unit flow cell was found, which constitutes the foam when stacked together both horizontally and vertically. Symmetry in the unit flow cell indicates that the flow analysis of a part of it can be employed to obtain the drainage for the whole foam. Material balance equations have been written for each segment of this subsection, ensuring connectivity, and solved with the appropriate boundary and initial conditions. The calculated rates of drainage, when compared with the available experimental results, indicate that the model predicts the experimental results well.

An Efficient Load Distribution Strategy for a Distributed Linear Network of Processors with Communication Delays

In this paper, we present an improved load distribution strategy, for arbitrarily divisible processing loads, to minimize the processing time in a distributed linear network of communicating processors by an efficient utilization of their front-ends. Closed-form solutions are derived, with the processing load originating at the boundary and at the interior of the network, under some important conditions on the arrangement of processors and links in the network. Asymptotic analysis is carried out to explore the ultimate performance limits of such networks. Two important theorems are stated regarding the optimal load sequence and the optimal load origination point. Comparative study of this new strategy with an earlier strategy is also presented.

Building instance knowledge network for word sense disambiguation

In this paper, a new high precision focused word sense disambiguation (WSD) approach is proposed, which not only attempts to identify the proper sense for a word but also provides the probabilistic evaluation for the identification confidence at the same time. A novel Instance Knowledge Network (IKN) is built to generate and maintain semantic knowledge at the word, type synonym set and instance levels. Related algorithms based on graph matching are developed to train IKN with probabilistic knowledge and to use IKN for probabilistic word sense disambiguation. Based on the Senseval-3 all-words task, we run extensive experiments to show the performance enhancements in different precision ranges and the rationality of probabilistic based automatic confidence evaluation of disambiguation. We combine our WSD algorithm with five best WSD algorithms in senseval-3 all words tasks. The results show that the combined algorithms all outperform the corresponding algorithms.

Spatio-temporal modelling of cancer data in Queensland using Bayesian methods

Cancer is the leading contributor to the disease burden in Australia. This thesis develops and applies Bayesian hierarchical models to facilitate an investigation of the spatial and temporal associations for cancer diagnosis and survival among Queenslanders. The key objectives are to document and quantify the importance of spatial inequalities, explore factors influencing these inequalities, and investigate how spatial inequalities change over time. Existing Bayesian hierarchical models are refined, new models and methods developed, and tangible benefits obtained for cancer patients in Queensland. The versatility of using Bayesian models in cancer control are clearly demonstrated through these detailed and comprehensive analyses.