The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

A systematic review of economic evaluations for interventions of cardiovascular diseases

Background. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) exhibits the most striking public health significance due to its high prevalence and mortality as well as huge economic burdens all over the world, especially in industrialized countries. Major risk factors of CVDs have been the targets of population-wide prevention in the United States. Economic evaluations provide structured information in regard to the efficiency of resource utilization which can inform decisions of resource allocation. The main purpose of this review is to investigate the pattern of study design of economic evaluations for interventions of CVDs. ^ Methods. Primary journal articles published during 2003-2008 were systematically retrieved via relevant keywords from Medline, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and EBSCO Academic Search Complete. Only full economic evaluations for narrowly defined CVD interventions were included for this review. The methodological data of interest were extracted from the eligible articles and reorganized in Microsoft Access database. Chi-square tests in SPSS were used to analyze the associations between pairs of categorical data. ^ Results. One hundred and twenty eligible articles were reviewed after two steps of literature selection with explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria. Descriptive statistics were reported regarding the evaluated interventions, outcome measures, unit costing and cost reports. The chi-square test of the association between prevention level of intervention and category of time horizon showed no statistical significance. The chi-square test showed that sponsor type was significantly associated with whether new or standard intervention being concluded as more cost effective. ^ Conclusions. Tertiary prevention and medication interventions are the major interests for economic evaluators. The majority of the evaluations were claimed from either a provider’s or a payer’s perspective. Almost all evaluations adopted gross costing strategy for unit cost data rather than micro costing. EQ-5D is the most commonly used instrument for subjective outcome measurement. More than half of the evaluations used decision analytic modeling techniques. The lack of consistency in study design standards in published evaluations appears in several aspects. Prevention level of intervention is not likely to be a factor for evaluators to decide whether to design an evaluation in a lifetime horizon or not. Published evaluations sponsored by industry are more likely to conclude that new intervention is more cost effective than standard intervention.^

Age models of sediment cores from the Southern Ocean

Recent geochemical models invoke ocean alkalinity changes, particularly in the surface Southern Ocean, to explain glacial age pCO2 reduction. In such models, alkalinity increases in glacial periods are driven by reductions in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) supply, which lead to increases in deep-water nutrients and dissolution of carbonate sediments, and to increased alkalinity of Circumpolar Deep Water upwelling in the surface Southern Ocean. We use cores from the Southeast Indian Ridge and from the deep Cape Basin in the South Atlantic to show that carbonate dissolution was enhanced during glacial stages in areas now bathed by Circumpolar Deep Water. This suggests that deep Southern Ocean carbonate ion concentrations were lower in glacial stages than in interglacials, rather than higher as suggested by the polar alkalinity model [Broecker and Peng, 1989, doi:10.1029/GB001i001p00015]. Our observations show that changes in Southern Ocean CaCO3 preservation are coherent with changes in the relative flux of NADW, suggesting that Southern Ocean carbonate chemistry is closely linked to changes in deepwater circulation. The pattern of enhanced dissolution in glacials is consistent with a reduction in the supply of nutrient-depleted water (NADW) to the Southern Ocean and with an increase of nutrients in deep water masses. Carbonate mass accumulation rates on the Southeast Indian Ridge (3200-3800 m), and in relatively shallow cores (<3000 m) from the Kerguelen Plateau and the South Pacific were significantly reduced during glacial stages, by about 50%. The reduced carbonate mass accumulation rates and enhanced dissolution during glacials may be partly due to decreases in CaCO3:Corg flux ratios, acting as another mechanism which would raise the alkalinity of Southern Ocean surface waters. The polar alkalinity model assumes that the ratio of organic carbon to carbonate production on surface alkalinity is constant. Even if overall productivity in the Southern Ocean were held constant, a decrease in the CaCO3:Corg ratio would result in increased alkalinity and reduced pCO2 in Southern Ocean surface waters during glacials. This ecologically driven surface alkalinity change may enhance deepwater-mediated changes in alkalinity, and amplify rapid changes in pCO2.

Comparing the quality of three models of postabortion care in public hospitals in Mexico City

artículo publicado en la revista Int Fam Plan Perspect. 2003 Sep;29(3):112-20

Age models of ODP sites from the Barents Sea-Svalbard region

Based on a revised chronostratigraphy, and compilation of borehole data from the Barents Sea continental margin, a coherent glaciation model is proposed for the Barents Sea ice sheet over the past 3.5 million years (Ma). Three phases of ice growth are suggested: (1) The initial build-up phase, covering mountainous regions and reaching the coastline/shelf edge in the northern Barents Sea during short-term glacial intensification, is concomitant with the onset of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (3.6-2.4 Ma). (2) A transitional growth phase (2.4-1.0 Ma), during which the ice sheet expanded towards the southern Barents Sea and reached the northwestern Kara Sea. This is inferred from step-wise decrease of Siberian river-supplied smectite-rich sediments, likely caused by ice sheet blockade and possibly reduced sea ice formation in the Kara Sea as well as glacigenic wedge growth along the northwestern Barents Sea margin hampering entrainment and transport of sea ice sediments to the Arctic-Atlantic gateway. (3) Finally, large-scale glaciation in the Barents Sea occurred after 1 Ma with repeated advances to the shelf edge. The timing is inferred from ice grounding on the Yermak Plateau at about 0.95 Ma, and higher frequencies of gravity-driven mass movements along the western Barents Sea margin associated with expansive glacial growth.

Age models of five ice cores from the Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

For the first time, annually resolved accumulation rates have been determined in central Antarctica by means of counting seasonal signals of ammonium, calcium, and sodium. All records, obtained from three intermediate depth ice cores from Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, show rather constant accumulation rates throughout the last 9 centuries with mean values of 63, 61, and 44 mm H2O yr**-1 and a typical year-to-year variation of about 30%. For the last few decades, no trend was detected accounting for the high natural variability of all records. A significant weak intersite correlation is apparent only between two cores when the high-frequency part with periods less than 30 years is removed. By analyzing the records in the frequency domain, no persistent periods were found. This suggests that the snow accumulation in this area is mainly influenced by local deposition patterns and may be additionally masked by redistribution of snow due to wind. By comparing accumulation rates over the last 2 millennia a distinct change in the layer thickness in one of the three cores was found, which might be attributed either to an area upstream of the drilling site with lower accumulation rates, or to deposition processes influenced by surface undulations. The missing of a clear correlation between the accumulation rate histories at the three locations is also important for the interpretation of small, short time variations of past precipitation records obtained from deep ice cores.

Age models of ODP Site 184-1143

Here we present an improved astronomical timescale since 5 Ma as recorded in the ODP Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea, using a recently published Asian summer monsoon record (hematite to goethite content ratio, Hm/Gt) and a parallel benthic d18O record. Correlation of the benthic d18O record to the stack of 57 globally distributed benthic d18O records (LR04 stack) and the Hm/Gt curve to the 65°N summer insolation curve is a particularly useful approach to obtain refined timescales. Hence, it constitutes the basis for our effort. Our proposed modifications result in a more accurate and robust chronology than the existing astronomical timescale for the ODP Site 1143. This updated timescale further enables a detailed study of the orbital variability of low-latitude Asian summer monsoon throughout the Plio-Pleistocene. Comparison of the Hm/Gt record with the d18O record from the same core reveals that the oscillations of low-latitude Asian summer monsoon over orbital scales differed considerably from the glacial-interglacial climate cycles. The popular view that summer monsoon intensifies during interglacial stages and weakens during glacial stages appears to be too simplistic for low-latitude Asia. In low-latitude Asia, some strong summer monsoon intervals appear to have also occurred during glacial stages in addition to their increased occurrence during interglacial stages. Vice versa, some notably weak summer monsoon intervals have also occurred during interglacial stages next to their anticipated occurrence during glacial stages. The well-known mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) is only identified in the benthic d18O record but not in the Hm/Gt record from the same core. This suggests that the MPT may be a feature of high- and middle-latitude climates, possibly determined by high-latitude ice sheet dynamics. For low-latitude monsoonal climate, its orbital-scale variations respond more directly to insolation and are little influenced by high-latitude processes, thus the MPT is likely not recorded. In addition, the Hm/Gt record suggests that low-latitude Asian summer monsoon intensity has a long-term decreasing trend since 2.8 Ma with increased oscillation amplitude. This long-term variability is presumably linked to the Northern Hemisphere glaciation since then.

Age models of ODP Sites 117-722 and 117-728

Pliocene and Pleistocene sediments of the Oman margin and Owen Ridge are characterized by continuous alternation of light and dark layers of nannofossil ooze and marly nannofossil ooze and cyclic variation of wet-bulk density. Origin of the wet-bulk density and color cycles was examined at Ocean Drilling Program Site 722 on the Owen Ridge and Site 728 on the Oman margin using 3.4-m.y.-long GRAPE (gamma ray attenuation) wet-bulk density records and records of sediment color represented as changes in gray level on black-and-white core photographs. At Sites 722 and 728 sediments display a weak correlation of decreasing wet-bulk density with increasing darkness of sediment color. Wet-bulk density is inversely related to organic carbon concentration and displays little relation to calcium carbonate concentration, which varies inversely with the abundance of terrigenous sediment components. Sediment color darkens with increasing terrigenous sediment abundance (decreasing carbonate content) and with increasing organic carbon concentration. Upper Pleistocene sediments at Site 722 display a regular pattern of dark colored intervals coinciding with glacial periods, whereas at Site 728 the pattern of color variation is more irregular. There is not a consistent relationship between the dark intervals and their relative wet-bulk density in the upper Pleistocene sections at Sites 722 and 728, suggesting that dominance of organic matter or terrigenous sediment as primary coloring agents varies. Spectra of wet-bulk density and optical density time series display concentration of variance at orbital periodicities of 100, 41, 23, and 19 k.y. A strong 41-k.y. periodicity characterizes wet-bulk density and optical density variation at both sites throughout most of the past 3.4 m.y. Cyclicity at the 41-k.y. periodicity is characterized by a lack of coherence between wet-bulk density and optical density suggesting that the bulk density and color cycles reflect the mixed influence of varying abundance of terrigenous sediments and organic matter. The 23-k.y. periodicity in wet-bulk density and sediment color cycles is generally characterized by significant coherence between wet-bulk density and optical density, which reflects an inverse relationship between these parameters. Varying organic matter abundance, associated with changes in productivity or preservation, is inferred to more strongly influence changes in wet-bulk density and sediment color at this periodicity.

Age models of upper Pliocene samples of the North Atlantic

Abundance variations of six Pliocene species of discoasters have been analyzed over the time interval from 1.89 to 2.95 Ma at five contrasting sites in the North Atlantic: Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 552 (56°N) and 607 (41°N) and Ocean Drilling Program 658 (20°N), 659 (18°N), and 662 (1°S). A sampling interval equivalent to approximately 3 k.y. was used. Total Discoaster abundance showed a reduction with increasing latitude and from the effects of upwelling. This phenomenon is most obvious in Discoaster brouweri, the only species that survived over the entire time interval studied. Prior to 2.38 Ma, Discoaster pentaradiatus and Discoaster surculus are important components of the Discoaster assemblage: Discoaster pentaradiatus increases slightly with latitude up to 41°N, and its abundance relative to D. brouweri increases up to 56°N; D. surculus increases in abundance with latitude and with upwelling conditions relative to both D. brouweri and D. pentaradiatus and is dominant to the latter species at upwelling Site 658 and at the highest latitude sites. Discoaster asymmetricus and Discoaster tamalis appear to increase in abundance with latitude relative to D. brouweri. Many of the abundance changes observed appear to be connected with the initiation of glaciation in the North Atlantic at 2.4 Ma. The long-term trend of decreasing Discoaster abundance probably reflects the fall of sea-surface temperatures. This trend of cooling is overprinted by short-term variations that are probably associated with orbital forcing. Evidence for the astronomical elements of eccentricity and obliquity periodicities were found at all sites; however, only at Sites 607, 659, and 662 were precessional periodicities detected. Furthermore, only at Site 659 was precession found to be dominant to obliquity. Abundance peaks of individual species were found to cross-correlate between sites. The distinct abundance fluctuations observed especially in the tropics suggest that temperature is not the only factor responsible for this variation. This study reveals for the first time the importance of productivity pressure on the suppression of Discoaster abundance.

Helium isotope ratios and sedimentation rate models of ODP holes

A continuous age model for the brief climate excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has been constructed by assuming a constant flux of extraterrestrial 3He (3He[ET]) to the seafloor. 3He[ET] measurements from ODP Site 690 provide quantitative evidence for the rapid onset (of global warming and of the associated disturbance to the Earth's surficial carbon budget at this time. These observations support astronomically calibrated age models indicating extremely rapid release of isotopically light carbon, possibly from seafloor methane hydrate, as the proximal cause of the event. However, the 3He[ET] technique indicates a previously unrecognized and extreme increase in sedimentation rate coincident with the return of climate proxies to pre-event values. The 3He[ET]-based age model thus suggests a far more rapid recovery from the climatic perturbation than previously proposed or predicted on the basis of the modern carbon cycle, and so may indicate additional or accelerated mechanisms of carbon removal from the ocean-atmosphere system during this period. 3He[ET] was also measured at ODP Site 1051 to test the validity of the Site 690 chronology. Comparison of these data sets seems to require removal of several tens of kyr of sediment within the climatic excursion at Site 1051, an observation consistent with sediment structures and previous age modeling efforts. The Site 1051 age model shows a ~30 kyr period in which climate proxies return toward pre-event values, after which they remain invariant for ~80 kyr. If this rise represents the recovery interval identified at Site 690, then the 3HeET-based age models of the two sites are in good agreement. However, alternative interpretations are possible, and work on less disrupted sites is required to evaluate the reliability of the proposed new chronology of the climate excursion. Regardless of these details, this work shows that the 3HeET technique can provide useful independent evidence for the development and testing of astronomically calibrated age models.

Age models of sediment cores from the continental margin of northwest Africa

Diatom abundance and species composition were quantitatively studied in two latest Quaternary (~130 ka to the Present) sequences from the continental margin of northwest Africa. Off this region, coastal upwelling is well developed under the influence of the NE trade winds. Variations in diatom abundance in these cores are inferred to represent changes caused by varying degrees of the upwelling fertility. Times of high productivity are marked by high relative frequencies of Chaetoceros, while low productivity is marked by the dominance of Aulacoseira granulata. Upwelling increased during glacial episodes (isotopic stages 2-4 and 6) relative to isotopic stages 1 and 5. During the late Holocene, primary productivity levels are similar to those for Stage 5, but in the early Holocene upwelling intensities seem to have been weaker than today. The paleoproductivity reconstruction based on the diatom record is supported by paleoproductivity estimations based on the organic carbon content of the sediments (Sarnthein et al., 1987).

Age models of ODP Leg 175 holes

A multiproxy approach including the use of stable isotopes, magnetic characterization analyses, and organic geochemistry has been adopted to consider factors such as productivity and terrigenous input over the past 1.5 m.y. at two areas off the western coast of Africa. These factors can, in turn, be used to consider variability in ocean circulation and upwelling in addition to changes in climate on the African continent. In particular, studies focused on the influence of glacial-interglacial cycles and evidence for the mid-Pleistocene revolution (MPR), a complex change in climate that occurred at ~1 Ma. A comparison of the records from the two areas drilled during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 175, the Congo Basin, at a latitude of 5°S (Holes 1076A and 1077A), and the Walvis Ridge, at 17°S (Hole 1081A), demonstrates that these sites are affected by different localized factors. The sites in the Congo Basin are strongly influenced by freshwater and sediment from the Congo River, whereas the site at the Walvis Ridge is located in the center of oceanic upwelling and contains a more marine signal. Evidence also suggests that the two sites responded differently to both long- and short-term climatic variations. In particular, the response at the Walvis Ridge to the MPR occurred over an extended period, from 1.1 to 0.8 Ma, and was associated with a change in the dominant source of terrigenous input to the site in conjunction with a change in the productivity signal. In the Congo Basin, the response to the MPR was more rapid, occurring between 0.9 and 0.8 Ma. During this period, the influence of the Congo River became significant. However, productivity records only began to respond toward the end of this interval, at 0.8 Ma.

Age models of northern North Atlantic sediment cores

Benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records from four high-resolution sediment cores, forming a depth transect between 1237 m and 2303 m on the South Iceland Rise, have been used to reconstruct intermediate and deep water paleoceanographic changes in the northern North Atlantic during the last 21 ka (spanning Termination I and the Holocene). Typically, a sampling resolution of ~100 years is attained. Deglacial core chronologies are accurately tied to North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core records through the correlation of tephra layers and changes in the percent abundance of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) with transitions in NGRIP. The evolution from the glacial mode of circulation to the present regime is punctuated by two periods with low benthic d13C and d18O values, which do not lie on glacial or Holocene water mass mixing lines. These periods correlate with the late Younger Dryas/Early Holocene (11.5-12.2 ka) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (14.7-16.8 ka) during which time freshwater input and sea-ice formation led to brine rejection both locally and as an overflow exported from the Nordic seas into the northern North Atlantic, as earlier reported by Meland et al. (2008). The export of brine with low ?13C values from the Nordic seas complicates traditional interpretations of low d13C values during the deglaciation as incursions of southern sourced water, although the spatial extent of this brine is uncertain. The records also reveal that the onset of the Younger Dryas was accompanied by an abrupt and transient (~200-300 year duration) decrease in the ventilation of the northern North Atlantic. During the Holocene, Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water only reached its modern flow strength and/or depth over the South Iceland Rise by 7-8 ka, in parallel with surface ocean reorganizations and a cessation in deglacial meltwater input to the North Atlantic.

Late Pliocene age models of Agulhas Plateau sediment cores

An ensemble of new, high-resolution records of surface ocean hydrography from the Indian-Atlantic oceanic gateway, south of Africa, demonstrates recurrent and high-amplitude salinity oscillations in the Agulhas Leakage area during the penultimate glacial-interglacial cycle. A series of millennial-scale salinification events, indicating strengthened salt leakage into the South Atlantic, appear to correlate with abrupt changes in the North Atlantic climate and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This interhemispheric coupling, which plausibly involved changes in the Hadley Cell and midlatitude westerlies that impacted the interocean transport at the tip of Africa, suggests that the Agulhas Leakage acted as a source of negative buoyancy for the perturbed AMOC, possibly aiding its return to full strength. Our finding points to the Indian-to-Atlantic salt transport as a potentially important modulator of the AMOC during the abrupt climate changes of the Late Pleistocene.