Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

A Simpler and More Accurate AUTO-HDS Framework for Clustering and Visualization of Biological Data

In [1], the authors proposed a framework for automated clustering and visualization of biological data sets named AUTO-HDS. This letter is intended to complement that framework by showing that it is possible to get rid of a user-defined parameter in a way that the clustering stage can be implemented more accurately while having reduced computational complexity

IL-12p40 Deficiency Leads to Uncontrolled Trypanosoma cruzi Dissemination in the Spinal Cord Resulting in Neuronal Death and Motor Dysfunction

Chagas' disease is a protozoosis caused by Trypanosoma cruzi that frequently shows severe chronic clinical complications of the heart or digestive system. Neurological disorders due to T. cruzi infection are also described in children and immunosuppressed hosts. We have previously reported that IL-12p40 knockout (KO) mice infected with the T. cruzi strain Sylvio X10/4 develop spinal cord neurodegenerative disease. Here, we further characterized neuropathology, parasite burden and inflammatory component associated to the fatal neurological disorder occurring in this mouse model. Forelimb paralysis in infected IL-12p40KO mice was associated with 60% (p<0.05) decrease in spinal cord neuronal density, glutamate accumulation (153%, p<0.05) and strong demyelization in lesion areas, mostly in those showing heavy protein nitrosylation, all denoting a neurotoxic degenerative profile. Quantification of T. cruzi 18S rRNA showed that parasite burden was controlled in the spinal cord of WT mice, decreasing from the fifth week after infection, but progressive parasite dissemination was observed in IL-12p40KO cords concurrent with significant accumulation of the astrocytic marker GFAP (317.0%, p<0.01) and 8-fold increase in macrophages/microglia (p<0.01), 36.3% (p<0.01) of which were infected. Similarly, mRNA levels for CD3, TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, iNOS, IL-10 and arginase I declined in WT spinal cords about the fourth or fifth week after infection, but kept increasing in IL-12p40KO mice. Interestingly, compared to WT tissue, lower mRNA levels for IFN-gamma were observed in the IL-12p40KO spinal cords up to the fourth week of infection. Together the data suggest that impairments of parasite clearance mechanisms in IL-12p40KO mice elicit prolonged spinal cord inflammation that in turn leads to irreversible neurodegenerative lesions.

Phylogeographic Analysis of HIV-1 Subtype C Dissemination in Southern Brazil

The HIV-1 subtype C has spread efficiently in the southern states of Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana). Phylogeographic studies indicate that the subtype C epidemic in southern Brazil was initiated by the introduction of a single founder virus population at some time point between 1960 and 1980, but little is known about the spatial dynamics of viral spread. A total of 135 Brazilian HIV-1 subtype C pol sequences collected from 1992 to 2009 at the three southern state capitals (Porto Alegre, Florianopolis and Curitiba) were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods were used to explore the degree of phylogenetic mixing of subtype C sequences from different cities and to reconstruct the geographical pattern of viral spread in this country region. Phylogeographic analyses supported the monophyletic origin of the HIV-1 subtype C clade circulating in southern Brazil and placed the root of that clade in Curitiba (Parana state). This analysis further suggested that Florianopolis (Santa Catarina state) is an important staging post in the subtype C dissemination displaying high viral migration rates from and to the other cities, while viral flux between Curitiba and Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul state) is very low. We found a positive correlation (r(2) = 0.64) between routine travel and viral migration rates among localities. Despite the intense viral movement, phylogenetic intermixing of subtype C sequences from different Brazilian cities is lower than expected by chance. Notably, a high proportion (67%) of subtype C sequences from Porto Alegre branched within a single local monophyletic sub-cluster. These results suggest that the HIV-1 subtype C epidemic in southern Brazil has been shaped by both frequent viral migration among states and in situ dissemination of local clades.

Coralistas amadores: auto-imagem, dificuldades e sintomas na voz cantada

Purpose: to evaluate vocal self-perception, difficulties and presence of negative symptoms after singing of amateur choir singers of different vocal classifications, age and experience. Method: one hundred and twenty five singers answered a questionnaire containing identification data, information about self-perception of the singing voice, difficulties with singing and negative symptoms after singing. Results: the comparison considering vocal classification evidenced greater difficulties with high notes for altos and basses, greater difficulty regarding the transition to high notes for basses and greater vocal fatigue for altos. Comparing the singers by age, both adults and young adults referred more breathiness than the elderly. The adults referred better vocal intensity than the young adults. The young adults referred better timbre than adults. Regarding the experience, the less experienced singers reported self-perception of hoarseness and presence of hoarseness after singing in greater number than the experienced singers. Conclusion: the difficulties with singing are connected to the vocal classification and do not depend on age or experience. Vocal symptoms are related to the vocal classification and to the experience with singing. Negative self-perception is also related the vocal classification and to the experience with singing, and positive self-perception was more reported by experienced singers.

Auto-avaliação de instituições de educação pré-escolar. Um estudio de caso em Jardins de Infância da Região Autónoma dos Açores

Programa de Doctorado: Formación del Profesorado

El auto de los Reyes Magos en El Viso (Córdoba)

Vídeo grabado en El Viso, Córdoba

¿Qué es el auto-archivo?

Presentación realizada para el curso del Campus Virtual Acceso abierto y derechos de autor (2014-15) realizado por el Grupo de Trabajo de la Biblioteca del mismo nombre