An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Developmental genetics of red cell indices during puberty: A longitudinal twin study

Red cell number and size increase during puberty, particularly in males. The aim of the present study was to determine whether expression of genes affecting red cell indices varied with age and sex. Haemoglobin, red cell count, and mean cellular volume were measured longitudinally on 578 pairs of twins at twelve, fourteen and sixteen years of age. Data were analysed using a structural equation modeling approach, in which a variety of univariate and longitudinal simplex models were fitted to the data. Significant heritability was demonstrated for all variables across all ages. The genes involved did not differ between the sexes, although there was evidence for sex limitation in the case of haemoglobin at age twelve. Longitudinal analyses indicated that new genes affecting red cell indices were expressed at different stages of puberty. Some of these genes affected the different red cell indices pleiotropically, while others had effects specific to one variable only.

Acoustic signature of the normal swallow: Characterization by age, gender, and bolus volume

Despite growing clinical use, cervical auscultation suffers from a lack of research-based data. One of the strongest criticisms of cervical auscultation is that there has been little research to demonstrate how dysphagic swallowing sounds are different from normal swallowing sounds, In order to answer this question, however, one first needs to document the acoustic characteristics of normal, nondysphagic swallowing sounds, This article provides the first normative database of normal swallowing sounds for the adult population. The current investigation documents the acoustic characteristics of normal swallowing sounds for individuals from 18 to more than 60 years of age over a range of thin liquid volumes. Previous research has shown the normal swallow to be a dynamic event. The normal swallow is sensitive to aging of the oropharyngeal system, and also to the volume of bolus swallowed. The current investigation found that the acoustic signals generated during swallowing were sensitive to an individual's age and to the volume of the bolus swallowed. There were also some gender-specific differences in the acoustic profile of the swallowing sound, It is anticipated that the results will provide a catalyst for further research into cervical auscultation.

CDT, GGT, and AST as markers of alcohol use: The WHO/ISBRA Collaborative Project

Background: Estimates of the performance of carbohydrate deficient transferrin (CDT) and gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT) as markers of alcohol consumption have varied widely. Studies have differed in design and subject characteristics. The WHO/ISBRA Collaborative Study allows assessment and comparison of CDT, GGT, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) as markers of drinking in a large, well-characterized, multicenter sample. Methods: A total of 1863 subjects were recruited from five countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Finland, and Japan). Recruitment was stratified by alcohol use, age, and sex. Demographic characteristics, alcohol consumption, and presence of ICD-10 dependence were recorded using an interview schedule based on the AUDADIS, CDT was assayed using CDTect(TM) and GGT and AST by standard methods. Statistical techniques included receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Multiple regression was used to measure the impact of factors other than alcohol on test performance. Results: CDT and GGT had comparable performance on ROC analysis, with AST performing slightly less well. CDT was a slightly but significantly better marker of high-risk consumption in men. All were more effective for detection of high-risk rather than intermediate-risk drinking. CDT and GGT levels were influenced by body mass index, sex, age, and smoking status. Conclusions: CDT was little better than GGT in detecting high- or intermediate-risk alcohol consumption in this large, multicenter, predominantly community-based sample. As the two tests are relatively independent of each other, their combination is likely to provide better performance than either test alone, Test interpretation should take account sex, age. and body mass index.

Catalytically active Dengue virus NS3 protease forms aggregates that are separable by size exclusion chromatography

An active form of the Dengue virus protease NS3 (CF40.Gly.NS3pro) was expressed in Escherichia coli. This construct consists of a critical 40 amino acid cofactor domain from NS2B fused to the N-terminal 184 amino acid protease domain of NS3 via a flexible, covalent linker (Gly(4)SerGly(4)). The recombinantly produced protein is soluble and has a hexa-histidine tag engineered at the N-terminus for ease of purification using metal affinity chromatography. However, the presence of lower molecular weight impurities after affinity chromatography indicated the need for additional purification steps. The consistent appearance of these impurities suggested that they may be the products of proteolysis and/or auto-proteolysis. The latter possibility was subsequently excluded by the observation of the same impurities in a purified, catalytically inactive form of the recombinant protease (CF40.Gly.NS3pro.SA). Further analysis indicated that these impurities may represent premature translation termination products. Regardless of their origin, they were shown to form various sized aggregates with full-length CF40.Gly.NS3pro that can be separated by size exclusion chromatography, yielding fractions of active protease of sufficient purity for crystallisation trials. The ultimate goal of these studies is to obtain a crystal structure of a catalytically active form of the Dengue virus NS3 protease for structure-based drug design. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Inferring genome trees by using a filter to eliminate phylogenetically discordant sequences and a distance matrix based on mean normalized BLASTP scores

Darwin's paradigm holds that the diversity of present-day organisms has arisen via a process of genetic descent with modification, as on a bifurcating tree. Evidence is accumulating that genes are sometimes transferred not along lineages but rather across lineages. To the extent that this is so, Darwin's paradigm can apply only imperfectly to genomes, potentially complicating or perhaps undermining attempts to reconstruct historical relationships among genomes (i.e., a genome tree). Whether most genes in a genome have arisen via treelike (vertical) descent or by lateral transfer across lineages can be tested if enough complete genome sequences are used. We define a phylogenetically discordant sequence (PDS) as an open reading frame (ORF) that exhibits patterns of similarity relationships statistically distinguishable from those of most other ORFs in the same genome. PDSs represent between 6.0 and 16.8% (mean, 10.8%) of the analyzable ORFs in the genomes of 28 bacteria, eight archaea, and one eukaryote (Saccharomyces cerevisiae). In this study we developed and assessed a distance-based approach, based on mean pairwise sequence similarity, for generating genome trees. Exclusion of PDSs improved bootstrap support for basal nodes but altered few topological features, indicating that there is little systematic bias among PDSs. Many but not all features of the genome tree from which PDSs were excluded are consistent with the 16S rRNA tree.

Ventilatory effects of neurophysiological facilitation and passive movement in patients with neurological injury

Thirteen intubated, high dependency patients with neurological injuries were studied in order to investigate the short term respiratory effects of neurophysiological facilitation and passive movement on tidal volume (V-T), minute ventilation (V-E), respiratory rate (V-R) and oxygen saturation (SpO(2)). The subjects were studied under four conditions: no intervention (control) and during periods of neurophysiological facilitation, passive movement and sensory stimulation. All periods were standardised to three minutes duration and all parameters were recorded before and after each intervention. Neurophysiological facilitation produced significant increases (p < 0.01) in V-E and SpO(2) (p < 0.05) when compared with control values, with an overall mean increase in V-E of 14.6%. Similarly, passive movement increased V-E (p < 0.01) by an average of 9.8% and also increased SpO(2) (p < 0.01). In contrast, sensory stimulation produced significant increases (p < 0.01) in SpO(2) with control levels, with no significant change in V-T or V-E. There was no significant difference in V-R with all treatments. This study provides preliminary evidence of improved short term ventilatory function following neurophysiological facilitation, independent of generalised sensory stimulation, which has not been previously examined in the literature, supporting its use in the management of high dependency neurological patients.

Molecular engineered porous clays using surfactants

Quaternary ammonium surfactants were used to control the pore structure of bentonite intercalated with a mixed hydro-sol of silicon and titanium. Porous clay heterostructures of alumina and laponite were prepared in the presence of polyethylene oxide (PEO) surfactants. Participation of the surfactants in the synthesis results in significant changes in the structure of porous clay products. Surfactants are involved in different mechanisms, In the case of bentonite, the mean size of the framework pores was directly proportional to the chain length of the quaternary ammonium surfactants. This indicates a molecular templating mechanism, similar to that observed in the synthesis of MCM41. However, in the case of laponite, the size and volume of the mesopores were related to the amount of PEO surfactants used. By using an appropriate surfactant, we can obtain highly porous clays with various pore structures. Introducing surfactants during intercalation is an efficient strategy for the molecular engineering of porous clay adsorbents and catalysts. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of two population pharmacokinetic programs, NONMEM and P-PHARM, for tacrolimus

Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

Mixed gas equilibrium adsorption on zeolites and energetic heterogeneity of adsorption volume

A model for binary mixture adsorption accounting for energetic heterogeneity and intermolecular interactions is proposed in this paper. The model is based on statistical thermodynamics, and it is able to describe molecular rearrangement of a mixture in a nonuniform adsorption field inside a cavity. The Helmholtz free energy obtained in the framework of this approach has upper and lower limits, which define a permissible range in which all possible solutions will be found. One limit corresponds to a completely chaotic distribution of molecules within a cavity, while the other corresponds to a maximum ordered molecular structure. Comparison of the nearly ideal O-2-N-2-zeolite NaX system at ambient temperature with the system Of O-2-N-2-zeolite CaX at 144 K has shown that a decrease of temperature leads to a molecular rearrangement in the cavity volume, which results from the difference in the fluid-solid interactions. The model is able to describe this behavior and therefore allows predicting mixture adsorption more accurately compared to those assuming energetic uniformity of the adsorption volume. Another feature of the model is its ability to correctly describe the negative deviations from Raoult's law exhibited by the O-2-N-2-CaX system at 144 K. Analysis of the highly nonideal CO2-C2H6-zeolite NaX system has shown that the spatial molecular rearrangement in separate cavities is induced by not only the ion-quadrupole interaction of the CO2 molecule but also the significant difference in molecular size and the difference between the intermolecular interactions of molecules of the same species and those of molecules of different species. This leads to the highly ordered structure of this system.

On the volume of 4-cycle trades

A 4-cycle trade of volume t corresponds to a simple graph G without isolated vertices, where the edge set can be partitioned into t 4-cycles in at least two different ways such that the two collections of 4-cycles have no 4-cycles in common. The foundation of the trade is v = \V(G)\. This paper determines for which values oft and a there exists a 4-cycle trade of volume t and foundation v.

Koala mortality on roads in south-east Queensland: the koala speed-zone trial

In 1995, the Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service, the Queensland Department of Main Roads and Redland Shire Council initiated the Koala Speed Zone Trial in the Koala Coast, south-east Queensland. The aim of the trial was to assess the effect of differential speed signs on the number of koalas ( Phascolarctos cinereus) hit by vehicles in the Koala Coast from 1995 to 1999. On the basis of information collected by the Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service 1407 koalas were hit by vehicles in the Koala Coast during the five-year study ( mean 281 koalas per year, range 251 - 315). Monitoring of vehicle speeds by the Queensland Department of Main Roads suggested that there was no significant reduction in vehicle speed during the trial period from August to December. Consequently, there was no evidence to suggest that a reduction in the number of koalas hit by vehicles occurred during the trial. Approximately 70% of koalas were hit on arterial and sub-arterial roads and approximately 83% did not survive. The location of each koala hit was recorded and the signed speed limit of the road was noted. Most koalas that were hit by vehicles were young healthy males. Pooling of data on koala collisions and road speed limits suggested that the proportion of koalas that survived being hit by vehicles was slightly higher on roads with lower speed limits. However, vehicle speed was not the only factor that affected the number of koalas hit by vehicles. It is suggested that habitat destruction, koala density and traffic volume also contribute to road-associated koala mortality in the Koala Coast.