A bayesian analysis for the parameters of the exponential-logarithmic distribution

The exponential-logarithmic is a new lifetime distribution with decreasing failure rate and interesting applications in the biological and engineering sciences. Thus, a Bayesian analysis of the parameters would be desirable. Bayesian estimation requires the selection of prior distributions for all parameters of the model. In this case, researchers usually seek to choose a prior that has little information on the parameters, allowing the data to be very informative relative to the prior information. Assuming some noninformative prior distributions, we present a Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Jeffreys prior is derived for the parameters of exponential-logarithmic distribution and compared with other common priors such as beta, gamma, and uniform distributions. In this article, we show through a simulation study that the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist except under restrictive conditions. In addition, the posterior density is sometimes bimodal when an improper prior density is used. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Multilayer perceptron neural networks training through charged system search and its Application for non-technical losses detection

The non-technical loss is not a problem with trivial solution or regional character and its minimization represents the guarantee of investments in product quality and maintenance of power systems, introduced by a competitive environment after the period of privatization in the national scene. In this paper, we show how to improve the training phase of a neural network-based classifier using a recently proposed meta-heuristic technique called Charged System Search, which is based on the interactions between electrically charged particles. The experiments were carried out in the context of non-technical loss in power distribution systems in a dataset obtained from a Brazilian electrical power company, and have demonstrated the robustness of the proposed technique against with several others nature-inspired optimization techniques for training neural networks. Thus, it is possible to improve some applications on Smart Grids. © 2013 IEEE.

Utilização de redes neurais recorrentes na caracterização de cargas não lineares em sistemas elétricos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Metodologia de projeto cooperativo para condicionadores de qualidade de energia

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Análise da estabilidade estática de tensão de sistemas elétricos de potência usando uma rede neural baseada na teoria da ressonância adaptativa

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Relationships between dendritic morphology, spatial distribution and firing patterns in rat layer 1 neurons

The cortical layer 1 contains mainly small interneurons, which have traditionally been classified according to their axonal morphology. The dendritic morphology of these cells, however, has received little attention and remains ill defined. Very little is known about how the dendritic morphology and spatial distribution of these cells may relate to functional neuronal properties. We used biocytin labeling and whole cell patch clamp recordings, associated with digital reconstruction and quantitative morphological analysis, to assess correlations between dendritic morphology, spatial distribution and membrane properties of rat layer 1 neurons. A total of 106 cells were recorded, labeled and subjected to morphological analysis. Based on the quantitative patterns of their dendritic arbor, cells were divided into four major morphotypes: horizontal, radial, ascendant, and descendant cells. Descendant cells exhibited a highly distinct spatial distribution in relation to other morphotypes, suggesting that they may have a distinct function in these cortical circuits. A significant difference was also found in the distribution of firing patterns between each morphotype and between the neuronal populations of each sublayer. Passive membrane properties were, however, statistically homogeneous among all subgroups. We speculate that the differences observed in active membrane properties might be related to differences in the synaptic input of specific types of afferent fibers and to differences in the computational roles of each morphotype in layer 1 circuits. Our findings provide new insights into dendritic morphology and neuronal spatial distribution in layer 1 circuits, indicating that variations in these properties may be correlated with distinct physiological functions.

Metacommunity structuring in stream networks: roles of dispersal mode, distance type, and regional environmental context

Within a metacommunity, both environmental and spatial processes regulate variation in local community structure. The strength of these processes may vary depending on species traits (e.g., dispersal mode) or the characteristics of the regions studied (e.g., spatial extent, environmental heterogeneity). We studied the metacommunity structuring of three groups of stream macroinvertebrates differing in their overland dispersal mode (passive dispersers with aquatic adults; passive dispersers with terrestrial adults; active dispersers with terrestrial adults). We predicted that environmental structuring should be more important for active dispersers, because of their better ability to track environmental variability, and that spatial structuring should be more important for species with aquatic adults, because of stronger dispersal limitation. We sampled a total of 70 stream riffle sites in three drainage basins. Environmental heterogeneity was unrelated to spatial extent among our study regions, allowing us to examine the effects of these two factors on metacommunity structuring. We used partial redundancy analysis and Moran's eigenvector maps based on overland and watercourse distances to study the relative importance of environmental control and spatial structuring. We found that, compared with environmental control, spatial structuring was generally negligible, and it did not vary according to our predictions. In general, active dispersers with terrestrial adults showed stronger environmental control than the two passively dispersing groups, suggesting that the species dispersing actively are better able to track environmental variability. There were no clear differences in the results based on watercourse and overland distances. The variability in metacommunity structuring among basins was not related to the differences in the environmental heterogeneity and spatial extent. Our study emphasized that (1) environmental control is prevailing in stream metacommunities, (2) dispersal mode may have an important effect on metacommunity structuring, and (3) some factors other than spatial extent or environmental heterogeneity contributed to the differences among the basins.

Transcriptional Activity, Chromosomal Distribution and Expression Effects of Transposable Elements in Coffea Genomes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disturbance detection for optimal database storage in electrical distribution systems using artificial immune systems with negative selection

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Combined active and semi-supervised learning using particle walking temporal dynamicscombined active and semi-supervised learning using particle walking temporal dynamics

Both Semi-Supervised Leaning and Active Learning are techniques used when unlabeled data is abundant, but the process of labeling them is expensive and/or time consuming. In this paper, those two machine learning techniques are combined into a single nature-inspired method. It features particles walking on a network built from the data set, using a unique random-greedy rule to select neighbors to visit. The particles, which have both competitive and cooperative behavior, are created on the network as the result of label queries. They may be created as the algorithm executes and only nodes affected by the new particles have to be updated. Therefore, it saves execution time compared to traditional active learning frameworks, in which the learning algorithm has to be executed several times. The data items to be queried are select based on information extracted from the nodes and particles temporal dynamics. Two different rules for queries are explored in this paper, one of them is based on querying by uncertainty approaches and the other is based on data and labeled nodes distribution. Each of them may perform better than the other according to some data sets peculiarities. Experimental results on some real-world data sets are provided, and the proposed method outperforms the semi-supervised learning method, from which it is derived, in all of them.

Spectrum Distribution in Cognitive Radio: Error Correcting Codes Perspective

Cognitive radio is a growing zone in wireless communication which offers an opening in complete utilization of incompetently used frequency spectrum: deprived of crafting interference for the primary (authorized) user, the secondary user is indorsed to use the frequency band. Though, scheming a model with the least interference produced by the secondary user for primary user is a perplexing job. In this study we proposed a transmission model based on error correcting codes dealing with a countable number of pairs of primary and secondary users. However, we obtain an effective utilization of spectrum by the transmission of the pairs of primary and secondary users' data through the linear codes with different given lengths. Due to the techniques of error correcting codes we developed a number of schemes regarding an appropriate bandwidth distribution in cognitive radio.

Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdos-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure -systemic risk- quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold T-h ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller T-h), the smaller the systemic risk -for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p(2) -a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochasticthe- systemic risk decreases with decreasing p(2). We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2014

Vertical distribution by demographic groups of ghost crab Ocypode quadrata (Crustacea: Brachyura)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo e simulação de redes de sensores em superfícies não-planas

This Bachelor’s Thesis of Bachelor of Computer Science defines a research and a network sensor simulation on non-planar surfaces . The report is composed of an introduction of the research, a theoretic study, a state of the art and a historic context of sensor network. The simulation consists of the formation of terrain, node’s random distribution and a production and a transmission of the node’s packages. Based on these three important topics , the exchange of information/packages between multiple nodes is through breadth-first search algorithm. The active nodes, node quantity and operation range are also defined in the program. After the program analysis the node activation, the packages are created and transmitted to the next node. This process occurs many times and help on the analysis of the sensor network on non-planar surfaces parameters