Impact of random and systematic recall errors and selection bias in case--control studies on mobile phone use and brain tumors in adolescents (CEFALO study)

Whether the use of mobile phones is a risk factor for brain tumors in adolescents is currently being studied. Case--control studies investigating this possible relationship are prone to recall error and selection bias. We assessed the potential impact of random and systematic recall error and selection bias on odds ratios (ORs) by performing simulations based on real data from an ongoing case--control study of mobile phones and brain tumor risk in children and adolescents (CEFALO study). Simulations were conducted for two mobile phone exposure categories: regular and heavy use. Our choice of levels of recall error was guided by a validation study that compared objective network operator data with the self-reported amount of mobile phone use in CEFALO. In our validation study, cases overestimated their number of calls by 9% on average and controls by 34%. Cases also overestimated their duration of calls by 52% on average and controls by 163%. The participation rates in CEFALO were 83% for cases and 71% for controls. In a variety of scenarios, the combined impact of recall error and selection bias on the estimated ORs was complex. These simulations are useful for the interpretation of previous case-control studies on brain tumor and mobile phone use in adults as well as for the interpretation of future studies on adolescents.

Frequency of and predictors for patient-reported medical and medication errors in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the frequency of and identify risk factors for patient-reported medical errors in Switzerland. The joint effect of risk factors on error-reporting probability was modelled for hypothetical patients. METHODS: A representative population sample of Swiss citizens (n = 1306) was surveyed as part of the Commonwealth Fund’s 2010 lnternational Survey of the General Public’s Views of their Health Care System’s Performance in Eleven Countries. Data on personal background, utilisation of health care, coordination of care problems and reported errors were assessed. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for patients’ reports of medical mistakes and medication errors. RESULTS: 11.4% of participants reported at least one error in their care in the previous two years (8% medical errors, 5.3% medication errors). Poor coordination of care experiences was frequent. 7.8% experienced that test results or medical records were not available, 17.2% received conflicting information from care providers and 11.5% reported that tests were ordered although they had been done before. Age (OR = 0.98, p = 0.014), poor health (OR = 2.95, p = 0.007), utilisation of emergency care (OR = 2.45, p = 0.003), inpatient-stay (OR = 2.31, p = 0.010) and poor care coordination (OR = 5.43, p <0.001) are important predictors for reporting error. For high utilisers of care that unify multiple risk factors the probability that errors are reported rises up to p = 0.8. CONCLUSIONS: Patient safety remains a major challenge for the Swiss health care system. Despite the health related and economic burden associated with it, the widespread experience of medical error in some subpopulations also has the potential to erode trust in the health care system as a whole.

Does published orthodontic research account for clustering effects during statistical data analysis?

In orthodontics, multiple site observations within patients or multiple observations collected at consecutive time points are often encountered. Clustered designs require larger sample sizes compared to individual randomized trials and special statistical analyses that account for the fact that observations within clusters are correlated. It is the purpose of this study to assess to what degree clustering effects are considered during design and data analysis in the three major orthodontic journals. The contents of the most recent 24 issues of the American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (AJODO), Angle Orthodontist (AO), and European Journal of Orthodontics (EJO) from December 2010 backwards were hand searched. Articles with clustering effects and whether the authors accounted for clustering effects were identified. Additionally, information was collected on: involvement of a statistician, single or multicenter study, number of authors in the publication, geographical area, and statistical significance. From the 1584 articles, after exclusions, 1062 were assessed for clustering effects from which 250 (23.5 per cent) were considered to have clustering effects in the design (kappa = 0.92, 95 per cent CI: 0.67-0.99 for inter rater agreement). From the studies with clustering effects only, 63 (25.20 per cent) had indicated accounting for clustering effects. There was evidence that the studies published in the AO have higher odds of accounting for clustering effects [AO versus AJODO: odds ratio (OR) = 2.17, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 1.06-4.43, P = 0.03; EJO versus AJODO: OR = 1.90, 95 per cent CI: 0.84-4.24, non-significant; and EJO versus AO: OR = 1.15, 95 per cent CI: 0.57-2.33, non-significant). The results of this study indicate that only about a quarter of the studies with clustering effects account for this in statistical data analysis.

Impact of measurement errors on the determination of the linear modulus of human meniscal attachments

For the development of meniscal substitutes and related finite element models it is necessary to know the mechanical properties of the meniscus and its attachments. Measurement errors can falsify the determination of material properties. Therefore the impact of metrological and geometrical measurement errors on the determination of the linear modulus of human meniscal attachments was investigated. After total differentiation the error of the force (+0.10%), attachment deformation (−0.16%), and fibre length (+0.11%) measurements almost annulled each other. The error of the cross-sectional area determination ranged from 0.00%, gathered from histological slides, up to 14.22%, obtained from digital calliper measurements. Hence, total measurement error ranged from +0.05% to −14.17%, predominantly affected by the cross-sectional area determination error. Further investigations revealed that the entire cross-section was significantly larger compared to the load-carrying collagen fibre area. This overestimation of the cross-section area led to an underestimation of the linear modulus of up to −36.7%. Additionally, the cross-sections of the collagen-fibre area of the attachments significantly varied up to +90% along their longitudinal axis. The resultant ratio between the collagen fibre area and the histologically determined cross-sectional area ranged between 0.61 for the posterolateral and 0.69 for the posteromedial ligament. The linear modulus of human meniscal attachments can be significantly underestimated due to the use of different methods and locations of cross-sectional area determination. Hence, it is suggested to assess the load carrying collagen fibre area histologically, or, alternatively, to use the correction factors proposed in this study.

Medication errors in a swiss cardiovascular surgery department: a cross-sectional study based on a novel medication error report method

The purpose of this study was (1) to determine frequency and type of medication errors (MEs), (2) to assess the number of MEs prevented by registered nurses, (3) to assess the consequences of ME for patients, and (4) to compare the number of MEs reported by a newly developed medication error self-reporting tool to the number reported by the traditional incident reporting system. We conducted a cross-sectional study on ME in the Cardiovascular Surgery Department of Bern University Hospital in Switzerland. Eligible registered nurses (n = 119) involving in the medication process were included. Data on ME were collected using an investigator-developed medication error self reporting tool (MESRT) that asked about the occurrence and characteristics of ME. Registered nurses were instructed to complete a MESRT at the end of each shift even if there was no ME. All MESRTs were completed anonymously. During the one-month study period, a total of 987 MESRTs were returned. Of the 987 completed MESRTs, 288 (29%) indicated that there had been an ME. Registered nurses reported preventing 49 (5%) MEs. Overall, eight (2.8%) MEs had patient consequences. The high response rate suggests that this new method may be a very effective approach to detect, report, and describe ME in hospitals.

ASSOCIATON TESTS THAT ACCOMMODATE GENOTYPING ERRORS

High-throughput SNP arrays provide estimates of genotypes for up to one million loci, often used in genome-wide association studies. While these estimates are typically very accurate, genotyping errors do occur, which can influence in particular the most extreme test statistics and p-values. Estimates for the genotype uncertainties are also available, although typically ignored. In this manuscript, we develop a framework to incorporate these genotype uncertainties in case-control studies for any genetic model. We verify that using the assumption of a “local alternative” in the score test is very reasonable for effect sizes typically seen in SNP association studies, and show that the power of the score test is simply a function of the correlation of the genotype probabilities with the true genotypes. We demonstrate that the power to detect a true association can be substantially increased for difficult to call genotypes, resulting in improved inference in association studies.

Cholesky Residuals for Assessing Normal Errors in a Linear Model with Correlated Outcomes: Technical Report

Despite the widespread popularity of linear models for correlated outcomes (e.g. linear mixed models and time series models), distribution diagnostic methodology remains relatively underdeveloped in this context. In this paper we present an easy-to-implement approach that lends itself to graphical displays of model fit. Our approach involves multiplying the estimated margional residual vector by the Cholesky decomposition of the inverse of the estimated margional variance matrix. The resulting "rotated" residuals are used to construct an empirical cumulative distribution function and pointwise standard errors. The theoretical framework, including conditions and asymptotic properties, involves technical details that are motivated by Lange and Ryan (1989), Pierce (1982), and Randles (1982). Our method appears to work well in a variety of circumstances, including models having independent units of sampling (clustered data) and models for which all observations are correlated (e.g., a single time series). Our methods can produce satisfactory results even for models that do not satisfy all of the technical conditions stated in our theory.

Bayesian Hidden Markov Modeling of Array CGH Data

Genomic alterations have been linked to the development and progression of cancer. The technique of Comparative Genomic Hybridization (CGH) yields data consisting of fluorescence intensity ratios of test and reference DNA samples. The intensity ratios provide information about the number of copies in DNA. Practical issues such as the contamination of tumor cells in tissue specimens and normalization errors necessitate the use of statistics for learning about the genomic alterations from array-CGH data. As increasing amounts of array CGH data become available, there is a growing need for automated algorithms for characterizing genomic profiles. Specifically, there is a need for algorithms that can identify gains and losses in the number of copies based on statistical considerations, rather than merely detect trends in the data. We adopt a Bayesian approach, relying on the hidden Markov model to account for the inherent dependence in the intensity ratios. Posterior inferences are made about gains and losses in copy number. Localized amplifications (associated with oncogene mutations) and deletions (associated with mutations of tumor suppressors) are identified using posterior probabilities. Global trends such as extended regions of altered copy number are detected. Since the posterior distribution is analytically intractable, we implement a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm for efficient simulation-based inference. Publicly available data on pancreatic adenocarcinoma, glioblastoma multiforme and breast cancer are analyzed, and comparisons are made with some widely-used algorithms to illustrate the reliability and success of the technique.

LEARNING FROM NEAR MISSES IN MEDICATION ERRORS: A BAYESIAN APPROACH

Medical errors originating in health care facilities are a significant source of preventable morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Voluntary error report systems that collect information on the causes and contributing factors of medi- cal errors regardless of the resulting harm may be useful for developing effective harm prevention strategies. Some patient safety experts question the utility of data from errors that did not lead to harm to the patient, also called near misses. A near miss (a.k.a. close call) is an unplanned event that did not result in injury to the patient. Only a fortunate break in the chain of events prevented injury. We use data from a large voluntary reporting system of 836,174 medication errors from 1999 to 2005 to provide evidence that the causes and contributing factors of errors that result in harm are similar to the causes and contributing factors of near misses. We develop Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating the log odds of selecting a given cause (or contributing factor) of error given harm has occurred and the log odds of selecting the same cause given that harm did not occur. The posterior distribution of the correlation between these two vectors of log-odds is used as a measure of the evidence supporting the use of data from near misses and their causes and contributing factors to prevent medical errors. In addition, we identify the causes and contributing factors that have the highest or lowest log-odds ratio of harm versus no harm. These causes and contributing factors should also be a focus in the design of prevention strategies. This paper provides important evidence on the utility of data from near misses, which constitute the vast majority of errors in our data.