IMPACTS OF ENHANCED TEMPERATURE AND SNOW DEPOSITION ON SENESCENCE DATE, VEGETATION COVER, AND CO2 EXCHANGE IN A CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC MESIC ECOSYSTEM

Arctic regions are expected to experience an increase in both temperature and precipitation over the coming decades, which is likely to impact vegetation dynamics and greenhouse gas exchange. To test this response, an experiment was installed at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, on Melville Island, NU, in 2008 as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Snow fences and open top chambers (OTCs) were used to manipulate snow depth and air temperature, respectively. Unlike most ITEX sites to date, enhanced temperature and snowfall were combined here in a factorial design with eight replicates. As an added control, four plots were established well outside the enhanced snow area. Senescence date was recorded at the end of the season, and at the peak of the growing season a vegetation survey was conducted within each plot in order to determine the total percent cover of each plot, as well as the percent cover of individual species. Carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange was also measured within each plot throughout the growing season. The date of senescence occurred significantly earlier in plots which had not been manipulated in any way, compared to all other treatments for all species. Salix arctica showed the greatest increase in cover over time at the species level. Lichen cover increased significantly in the deepened snow plots, and in general there were significant increases in percent cover in some functional groups over time. During June and into July the net CO2 flux was to the atmosphere. It was not until July 27 that these ecosystems became net carbon sinks. However, warming alone resulted in the ecosystem acting as a significant net carbon sink for the entire growing season. Plots exposed to warming alone were estimated to have removed approximately 19.94 g C m-2 from the atmosphere, whereas all other treatments were very similar to one another and estimated to have added approximately 3.12 g C m-2 to the atmosphere. Active layer depth and soil temperatures suggest that plots within the ambient snow zone may be receiving some additional snow due to their proximity to the fences. CO2 fluxes measured within the outer control plots suggest that the effect of warming alone could lead to this ecosystem being an even stronger net C sink under truly ambient snow conditions.

Sensitivity of building zones to potential global warming

As global warming entails new conditions for the built environment, the thermal and energy performance of existing buildings, which are designed based on current weather data, may become unclear and remain a great concern. Through building computer simulation and qualitative analysis of the weighted factor for the outdoor temperature impact on building energy and thermal performance, this paper investigates the sensitivity of different office building zoning to the potential global warming. A standard office building type is examined for all eight capital cities in Australia. Results show that comparing the middle and top floors, except for cool climate (i.e. Hobart), the ground floor appears to be the most sensitive to the effect of global warming and has the highest tendency for a overheating problem. From the analysis of the responses of different zone orientations to the outdoor air temperature increase, it is also found that there are widely varied responses between zone orientations, with South zone (in the southern hemisphere) being the most sensitive. With an increased external air temperature, the variation between different floors or zone orientations will become more significant, up to 53 percent increase of overheating hours in Darwin and 47 percent increase of cooling load in Hobart.

Sensitivity of office building zones to global warming

As global warming entails new conditions for the built environment, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were designed based on current weather data, may become unclear and remain a great concern. Through building computer simulation, this paper investigates the sensitivity of different office building zoning to the potential global warming. From the sample office building examined, it is found that compared with the middle and top floors, the ground floor for most cities appears to be most sensitive to the effect of global warming and has the highest tendency to having the overheating problem. From the analysis of the responses of different zone orientations to the outdoor air temperature increase, it is also found that there are widely different responses between different zone orientations, with South or Core zone being most sensitive. With an increased external air temperature, the difference between different floors or different zone orientations will become more significant.

Multiphysics modelling of convective drying of food materials

Currently, 1.3 billion tonnes of food is lost annually due to lack of proper processing and preservation method. Drying is one of the easiest and oldest methods of food processing which can contribute to reduce that huge losses, combat hunger and promote food security. Drying increase shelf life, reduce weight and volume of food thus minimize packing, storage, and transportation cost and enable storage of food under ambient environment. However, drying is a complex process which involves combination of heat and mass transfer and physical property change and shrinkage of the food material. Modelling of this process is essential to optimize the drying kinetics and improve energy efficiency of the process. Since material properties varies with moisture content, the models should not consider constant materials properties, constant diffusion .The objective of this paper is to develop a multiphysics based mathematical model to simulate coupled heat and mass transfer during convective drying of fruit considering variable material properties. This model can be used predict the temperature and moisture distribution inside the food during drying. Effect of different drying air temperature and drying air velocity on drying kinetics has been demonstrated. The governing equations of heat and mass transfer were solved with Comsol Multiphysics 4.3.

Adapting wheat sowing dates to projected climate change in the Australian subtropics: analysis of crop water use and yield

Projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and air temperature associated with future climate change are expected to affect crop development, crop yield, and, consequently, global food supplies. They are also likely to change agricultural production practices, especially those related to agricultural water management and sowing date. The magnitude of these changes and their implications to local production systems are mostly unknown. The objectives of this study were to: (i) simulate the effect of projected climate change on spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Lang) yield and water use for the subtropical environment of the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia; and (ii) investigate the impact of changing sowing date, as an adaptation strategy to future climate change scenarios, on wheat yield and water use. The multimodel climate projections from the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) for the period 2030–2070 were used in this study. Climate scenarios included combinations of four changes in air temperature (08C, 18C, 28C, and 38C), three [CO2] levels (380 ppm, 500 ppm, and 600 ppm), and three changes in rainfall (–30%, 0%, and +20%), which were superimposed on observed station data. Crop management scenarios included a combination of six sowing dates (1 May, 10 May, 20 May, 1 June, 10 June, and 20 June) and three irrigation regimes (no irrigation (NI), deficit irrigation (DI), and full irrigation (FI)). Simulations were performed with the model DSSAT4.5, using 50 years of daily weather data.Wefound that: (1) grain yield and water-use efficiency (yield/evapotranspiration) increased linearly with [CO2]; (2) increases in [CO2] had minimal impact on evapotranspiration; (3) yield increased with increasing temperature for the irrigated scenarios (DI and FI), but decreased for the NI scenario; (4) yield increased with earlier sowing dates; and (5) changes in rainfall had a small impact on yield for DI and FI, but a high impact for the NI scenario.

Influence of drying conditions on the moisture diffusion and fluidization quality during multi-stage fluidized bed drying of bovine intestine for pet food

In order to establish the influence of the drying air characteristics on the drying performance and fluidization quality of bovine intestine for pet food, several drying tests have been carried out in a laboratory scale heat pump assisted fluid bed dryer. Bovine intestine samples were heat pump fluidized bed dried at atmospheric pressure and at temperatures below and above the materials freezing points, equipped with a continuous monitoring system. The investigation of the drying characteristics have been conducted in the temperature range −10 to 25 ◦C and the airflow in the range 1.5–2.5 m/s. Some experiments were conducted as single temperature drying experiments and others as two stage drying experiments employing two temperatures. An Arrhenius-type equation was used to interpret the influence of the drying air temperature on the effective diffusivity, calculated with the method of slopes in terms of energy activation, and this was found to be sensitive to the temperature. The effective diffusion coefficient of moisture transfer was determined by the Fickian method using uni-dimensional moisture movement in both moisture, removal by evaporation and combined sublimation and evaporation. Correlations expressing the effective moisture diffusivity and drying temperature are reported. Bovine particles were characterized according to the Geldart classification and the minimum fluidization velocity was calculated using the Ergun Equation and generalized equation for all drying conditions at the beginning and end of the trials. Walli’s model was used to categorize stability of the fluidization at the beginning and end of the dryingv for each trial. The determined Walli’s values were positive at the beginning and end of all trials indicating stable fluidization at the beginning and end for each drying condition.

Inter-cycle variability of ignition delay in an ethanol fumigated common rail diesel engine

An experimental study has been performed to investigate the ignition delay of a modern heavy-duty common-rail diesel engine run with fumigated ethanol substitutions up to 40% on an energy basis. The ignition delay was determined through the use of statistical modelling in a Bayesian framework this framework allows for the accurate determination of the start of combustion from single consecutive cycles and does not require any differentiation of the in-cylinder pressure signal. At full load the ignition delay has been shown to decrease with increasing ethanol substitutions and evidence of combustion with high ethanol substitutions prior to diesel injection have also been shown experimentally and by modelling. Whereas, at half load increasing ethanol substitutions have increased the ignition delay. A threshold absolute air to fuel ratio (mole basis) of above ~110 for consistent operation has been determined from the inter-cycle variability of the ignition delay, a result that agrees well with previous research of other in-cylinder parameters and further highlights the correlation between the air to fuel ratio and inter-cycle variability. Numerical modelling to investigate the sensitivity of ethanol combustion has also been performed. It has been shown that ethanol combustion is sensitive to the initial air temperature around the feasible operating conditions of the engine. Moreover, a negative temperature coefficient region of approximately 900{1050 K (the approximate temperature at fuel injection) has been shown with for n-heptane and n-heptane/ethanol blends in the numerical modelling. A consequence of this is that the dominate effect influencing the ignition delay under increasing ethanol substitutions may rather be from an increase in chemical reactions and not from in-cylinder temperature. Further investigation revealed that the chemical reactions at low ethanol substitutions are different compared to the high (> 20%) ethanol substitutions.

Odour Emissions from Tunnel Ventilated Poultry Housing

In Australia, factors such as local planning processes, urban encroachment into rural areas and intensification of the poultry industry have increased the potential for odour and dust nuisance. At present, accurate estimates of odour emissions from mechanically ventilated poultry housing systems do not exist for Australian conditions. This has made the poultry industry vulnerable to unsubstantiated criticism. Recently, the Australian poultry industry have made a significant investment in research to obtain accurate estimates of odour, dust and volatile chemical emission rates from typical poultry housing systems. This paper describes the measurement of odour emissions from tunnel ventilated poultry housing systems in different climatic zones in Queensland and Victoria, Australia (humid sub-tropical and Mediterranean respectively) during two seasons (summer and winter). Samples were collected at defined intervals over typical batch production cycles to define the odour emission profiles. These samples were analysed using dynamic olfactometry according to the Australian Standard 4323.3 to derive the odour concentration values. Ventilation rates were measured concurrently, allowing the calculation of odour emission rates. Odour concentration and emission rates were assessed in terms of ventilation rate, ambient and shed air temperature and relative humidity and litter moisture status. Odour emission rates varied with bird age. Seasonal differences in odour emission rate were also observed.

Morphological and developmental comparisons of seven greens quality hybrid bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon (L.)Pers.x C transvaalensis Burtt-Davy

Fine-textured hybrid bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers. x C. transvaalensis Burtt-Davy] cultivars have been widely used for golf putting greens and lawn bowls greens in warm-climate areas for more than 40 years. During the past decade, the choice of cultivar for professional turfgrass managers has been expanded by a range of secondgeneration hybrid bermudagrasses, which differ from the first-generation cultivars ‘Tifgreen’ and ‘Tifdwarf ’ in their management requirements. In this paper, we present comparative morphological and developmental data for seven cultivars (Champion Dwarf, FloraDwarf, MS-Supreme, Novotek, Tifdwarf, TifEagle, Tifgreen) grown in spaced plant and sward experiments at Cleveland, Australia (27º32’S lat, 153º15’E long, 25 masl). The four ‘ultradwarf ’ cultivars (Champion Dwarf, MS-Supreme, FloraDwarf, TifEagle) showed slower vertical extension and produced fewer inflorescences than Tifdwarf, Tifgreen, and Novotek. However, in terms of the length of stolon internodes and their overall rate of lateral spread, Champion Dwarf, FloraDwarf, and TifEagle were comparable to Tifdwarf; MS-Supreme (with longer internodes) spread faster laterally, though slower than Tifgreen (which had the longest stolon internodes). In unmown swards, the four ultradwarfs produced shorter leaves than Tifgreen, Tifdwarf, and Novotek, but only Champion Dwarf produced significantly narrower leaves than Tifgreen, Tifdwarf, and Novotek, with TifEagle leaves also significantly narrower than those of Tifgreen and Novotek. Minimum threshold temperatures for growth were approximately 9° to 10°C (air temperature) and 15° to 16°C at 10 cm soil depth.

Net radiation dynamics: performance of 20 daily net radiation models as related to model structure and intricacy in two climates.

We compared daily net radiation (Rn) estimates from 19 methods with the ASCE-EWRI Rn estimates in two climates: Clay Center, Nebraska (sub-humid) and Davis, California (semi-arid) for the calendar year. The performances of all 20 methods, including the ASCE-EWRI Rn method, were then evaluated against Rn data measured over a non-stressed maize canopy during two growing seasons in 2005 and 2006 at Clay Center. Methods differ in terms of inputs, structure, and equation intricacy. Most methods differ in estimating the cloudiness factor, emissivity (e), and calculating net longwave radiation (Rnl). All methods use albedo (a) of 0.23 for a reference grass/alfalfa surface. When comparing the performance of all 20 Rn methods with measured Rn, we hypothesized that the a values for grass/alfalfa and non-stressed maize canopy were similar enough to only cause minor differences in Rn and grass- and alfalfa-reference evapotranspiration (ETo and ETr) estimates. The measured seasonal average a for the maize canopy was 0.19 in both years. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 resulted in 6% overestimation of Rn. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 for ETo and ETr estimations, the 6% difference in Rn translated to only 4% and 3% differences in ETo and ETr, respectively, supporting the validity of our hypothesis. Most methods had good correlations with the ASCE-EWRI Rn (r2 > 0.95). The root mean square difference (RMSD) was less than 2 MJ m-2 d-1 between 12 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Clay Center and between 14 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Davis. The performance of some methods showed variations between the two climates. In general, r2 values were higher for the semi-arid climate than for the sub-humid climate. Methods that use dynamic e as a function of mean air temperature performed better in both climates than those that calculate e using actual vapor pressure. The ASCE-EWRI-estimated Rn values had one of the best agreements with the measured Rn (r2 = 0.93, RMSD = 1.44 MJ m-2 d-1), and estimates were within 7% of the measured Rn. The Rn estimates from six methods, including the ASCE-EWRI, were not significantly different from measured Rn. Most methods underestimated measured Rn by 6% to 23%. Some of the differences between measured and estimated Rn were attributed to the poor estimation of Rnl. We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of Rnl on Rn, ETo, and ETr. The Rnl effect on Rn was linear and strong, but its effect on ETo and ETr was subsidiary. Results suggest that the Rn data measured over green vegetation (e.g., irrigated maize canopy) can be an alternative Rn data source for ET estimations when measured Rn data over the reference surface are not available. In the absence of measured Rn, another alternative would be using one of the Rn models that we analyzed when all the input variables are not available to solve the ASCE-EWRI Rn equation. Our results can be used to provide practical information on which method to select based on data availability for reliable estimates of daily Rn in climates similar to Clay Center and Davis.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Stochastic model for simulating maize yield

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Distribution of non-biting midges (Diptera, Chironomidae) in subarctic lakes of Finnish Lapland applications in lake classification and palaeolimnology

Climate change contributes directly or indirectly to changes in species distributions, and there is very high confidence that recent climate warming is already affecting ecosystems. The Arctic has already experienced the greatest regional warming in recent decades, and the trend is continuing. However, studies on the northern ecosystems are scarce compared to more southerly regions. Better understanding of the past and present environmental change is needed to be able to forecast the future. Multivariate methods were used to explore the distributional patterns of chironomids in 50 shallow (≤ 10m) lakes in relation to 24 variables determined in northern Fennoscandia at the ecotonal area from the boreal forest in the south to the orohemiarctic zone in the north. Highest taxon richness was noted at middle elevations around 400 m a.s.l. Significantly lower values were observed from cold lakes situated in the tundra zone. Lake water alkalinity had the strongest positive correlation with the taxon richness. Many taxa had preference for lakes either on tundra area or forested area. The variation in the chironomid abundance data was best correlated with sediment organic content (LOI), lake water total organic carbon content, pH and air temperature, with LOI being the strongest variable. Three major lake groups were separated on the basis of their chironomid assemblages: (i) small and shallow organic-rich lakes, (ii) large and base-rich lakes, and (iii) cold and clear oligotrophic tundra lakes. Environmental variables best discriminating the lake groups were LOI, taxon richness, and Mg. When repeated, this kind of an approach could be useful and efficient in monitoring the effects of global change on species ranges. Many species of fast spreading insects, including chironomids, show a remarkable ability to track environmental changes. Based on this ability, past environmental conditions have been reconstructed using their chitinous remains in the lake sediment profiles. In order to study the Holocene environmental history of subarctic aquatic systems, and quantitatively reconstruct the past temperatures at or near the treeline, long sediment cores covering the last 10000 years (the Holocene) were collected from three lakes. Lower temperature values than expected based on the presence of pine in the catchment during the mid-Holocene were reconstructed from a lake with great water volume and depth. The lake provided thermal refuge for profundal, cold adapted taxa during the warm period. In a shallow lake, the decrease in the reconstructed temperatures during the late Holocene may reflect the indirect response of the midges to climate change through, e.g., pH change. The results from three lakes indicated that the response of chironomids to climate have been more or less indirect. However, concurrent shifts in assemblages of chironomids and vegetation in two lakes during the Holocene time period indicated that the midges together with the terrestrial vegetation had responded to the same ultimate cause, which most likely was the Holocene climate change. This was also supported by the similarity in the long-term trends in faunal succession for the chironomid assemblages in several lakes in the area. In northern Finnish Lapland the distribution of chironomids were significantly correlated with physical and limnological factors that are most likely to change as a result of future climate change. The indirect and individualistic response of aquatic systems, as reconstructed using the chironomid assemblages, to the climate change in the past suggests that in the future, the lake ecosystems in the north do not respond in one predictable way to the global climate change. Lakes in the north may respond to global climate change in various ways that are dependent on the initial characters of the catchment area and the lake.

Field performance of in-service cast iron gas reticulation pipe buried in reactive clay

Field instrumentation of an in-service cast iron gas pipe buried in a residential area is detailed in this paper. The aim of the study was to monitor the long-term pipe behavior to understand the mechanisms of pipe bending in relation to ground movement as a result of seasonal fluctuation of soil moisture content. Field data showed that variation of soil temperature, suction, and moisture content are closely related to the prevailing climate. Change of soil temperature is generally related to the ambient air temperature, with a variation of approximately −3°C −3°C per meter depth from the ground surface in summer (decrease with depth) and winter (increase with depth). Seasonal cyclic variation in moisture content was observed with maxima in February and March, and a minimum around September. The pipe top was under tensile strain during summer and subsequently subjected to compressive strain as soil swelling occurred as a result of increase in moisture content. The study suggests that downward pipe bending occurs in summer because of soil shrinkage, while upward pipe bending occurs in winter when the soil swells.