Optimal strategies in political elections

In the Majoritarian Parliamentary System, the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right provides the government a control to achieve its objective to remain in power for as long as possible. We model the early election problem mathematically using opinion polls data as a stochastic process to proxy the government's probability of re-election. These data measure the difference in popularity between the government and the opposition. We fit a mean reverting Stochastic Differential Equation to describe the behaviour of the process and consider the possibility for the government to use other control tools, which are termed 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These actions improve the government's popularity and have some impact upon the early-election exercise boundary. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2005.

The new age: Towards a market model

The problem of how the New Age may be defined is widely acknowledged among commentators. It is hard to delineate and does not fit easily into existing analytical categories. This paper will review how scholars have conceptualised the movement. It will discuss the problems inherent in attempting to specify its constituents, fix its limits, and characterise its organisational forms. The later sections advances the argument that some of its most distinctive characteristics may be accounted for by acknowledging the market dynamics at play in New Age milieux. It is proposed that the diffuse overall shape of the movement is the result of determinate commercial institutional arrangements.

A distributed systems approach to secure Internet mail

One of the obstacles to improved security of the Internet is ad hoc development of technologies with different design goals and different security goals. This paper proposes reconceptualizing the Internet as a secure distributed system, focusing specifically on the application layer. The notion is to redesign specific functionality, based on principles discovered in research on distributed systems in the decades since the initial development of the Internet. Because of the problems in retrofitting new technology across millions of clients and servers, any options with prospects of success must support backward compatibility. This paper outlines a possible new architecture for internet-based mail which would replace existing protocols by a more secure framework. To maintain backward compatibility, initial implementation could offer a web browser-based front end but the longer-term approach would be to implement the system using appropriate models of replication. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A theory for execution-time derivation in real-time programs

We provide an abstract command language for real-time programs and outline how a partial correctness semantics can be used to compute execution times. The notions of a timed command, refinement of a timed command, the command traversal condition, and the worst-case and best-case execution time of a command are formally introduced and investigated with the help of an underlying weakest liberal precondition semantics. The central result is a theory for the computation of worst-case and best-case execution times from the underlying semantics based on supremum and infimum calculations. The framework is applied to the analysis of a message transmitter program and its implementation. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detecting finite bandwidth periodic signals in stationary noise using the signal coherence spectrum

All signals that appear to be periodic have some sort of variability from period to period regardless of how stable they appear to be in a data plot. A true sinusoidal time series is a deterministic function of time that never changes and thus has zero bandwidth around the sinusoid's frequency. A zero bandwidth is impossible in nature since all signals have some intrinsic variability over time. Deterministic sinusoids are used to model cycles as a mathematical convenience. Hinich [IEEE J. Oceanic Eng. 25 (2) (2000) 256-261] introduced a parametric statistical model, called the randomly modulated periodicity (RMP) that allows one to capture the intrinsic variability of a cycle. As with a deterministic periodic signal the RMP can have a number of harmonics. The likelihood ratio test for this model when the amplitudes and phases are known is given in [M.J. Hinich, Signal Processing 83 (2003) 1349-13521. A method for detecting a RMP whose amplitudes and phases are unknown random process plus a stationary noise process is addressed in this paper. The only assumption on the additive noise is that it has finite dependence and finite moments. Using simulations based on a simple RMP model we show a case where the new method can detect the signal when the signal is not detectable in a standard waterfall spectrograrn display. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.