Decision-theoretic designs for phase II clinical trials allowing for competing studies

This article describes an approach to optimal design of phase II clinical trials using Bayesian decision theory. The method proposed extends that suggested by Stallard (1998, Biometrics54, 279–294) in which designs were obtained to maximize a gain function including the cost of drug development and the benefit from a successful therapy. Here, the approach is extended by the consideration of other potential therapies, the development of which is competing for the same limited resources. The resulting optimal designs are shown to have frequentist properties much more similar to those traditionally used in phase II trials.

Linking public issues with private troubles: panel studies in developing countries

Accompanying the call for increased evidence-based policy the developed world is implementing more longitudinal panel studies which periodically gather information about the same people over a number of years. Panel studies distinguish between transitory and persistent states (e.g. poverty, unemployment) and facilitate causal explanations of relationships between variables. However, they are complex and costly. A growing number of developing countries are now implementing or considering starting panel studies. The objectives of this paper are to identify challenges that arise in panel studies, and to give examples of how these have been addressed in resource-constrained environments. The main issues considered are: the development of a conceptual framework which links macro and micro contexts; sampling the cohort in a cost-effective way; tracking individuals; ethics and data management and analysis. Panel studies require long term funding, a stable institution and an acceptance that there will be limited value for money in terms of results from early stages, with greater benefits accumulating in the study's mature years. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Human language as a culturally transmitted replicator

Human languages form a distinct and largely independent class of cultural replicators with behaviour and fidelity that can rival that of genes. Parallels between biological and linguistic evolution mean that statistical methods inspired by phylogenetics and comparative biology are being increasingly applied to study language. Phylogenetic trees constructed from linguistic elements chart the history of human cultures, and comparative studies reveal surprising and general features of how languages evolve, including patterns in the rates of evolution of language elements and social factors that influence temporal trends of language evolution. For many comparative questions of anthropology and human behavioural ecology, historical processes estimated from linguistic phylogenies may be more relevant than those estimated from genes.

Mixed culture fermentation studies on the effects of synbiotics on the human intestinal pathogens Campylobacter jejuni and Escherichia coli

Batch and continuous culture anaerobic fermentation systems, inoculated with human faeces, were utilised to investigate the antimicrobial actions of two probiotics, Lactobacillus plantartan 0407, combined with oligofructose and Bifidobacterium bifidum Bb12, combined with a mixture of oligofructose and xylo-oligosaccharides (50:50 w/w) against E coli and Campylobacter jejuni. In batch fermenters, both E coli and C jejuni were inhibited by the synbiotics, even when the culture pH was maintained at around neutral. In continuous culture C jejuni was inhibited but the synbiotic failed to inhibit E coli. Although no definitive answer in addressing the mechanisms underlying antimicrobial activity was derived, results suggested that acetate and lactate directly were conferring antagonistic action, rather than as a result of lowering culture pH. In the course of the study culturing and fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH) methodologies for the enumeration of bacterial populations were compared. Bifidobacterial populations were underestimated using plating techniques, suggesting the non-culturability of certain bifidobacterial species. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient and accurate experimental design for enzyme kinetics: Bayesian studies reveal a systematic approach

In areas such as drug development, clinical diagnosis and biotechnology research, acquiring details about the kinetic parameters of enzymes is crucial. The correct design of an experiment is critical to collecting data suitable for analysis, modelling and deriving the correct information. As classical design methods are not targeted to the more complex kinetics being frequently studied, attention is needed to estimate parameters of such models with low variance. We demonstrate that a Bayesian approach (the use of prior knowledge) can produce major gains quantifiable in terms of information, productivity and accuracy of each experiment. Developing the use of Bayesian Utility functions, we have used a systematic method to identify the optimum experimental designs for a number of kinetic model data sets. This has enabled the identification of trends between kinetic model types, sets of design rules and the key conclusion that such designs should be based on some prior knowledge of K-M and/or the kinetic model. We suggest an optimal and iterative method for selecting features of the design such as the substrate range, number of measurements and choice of intermediate points. The final design collects data suitable for accurate modelling and analysis and minimises the error in the parameters estimated. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Reproductive biology and population studies in two annual shuttle mosses

Observations on clumps of Phascum cuspidatum during the summer and autumn indicated that this species is at least a short-lived perennial, as young shoots develop from old, brown shoots persisting from the previous winter. No young shoots arising by vegetative propagation were recorded in Pottia truncata. Rhizoid tubers were observed in this species, but only in one of the many clumps examined. Spores of both species germinated freely in culture, but when spores were planted in the field young gametophytes developed inconsistently in P. truncata and never in P. cuspidatum. An investigation of spore deposition around an isolated clump of P. truncata suggested that 67% of the spores released were deposited within the clump, and 70% within 2m. Electrophoretic studies indicated limited genetic variation within two populations of each species, with no genotypes in common between the populations. No genetic variation was recorded between gametophytes within individual clumps of either species, nor between sporophytes and their maternal gametophytes, suggesting a high incidence of inbreeding in these monoecious mosses. (author abst.)

Metal complexes of a tetraazacyclophane: solution and molecular modelling studies

An alternative synthetic approach to yield the compound 2,3,5,6,8,9,11,14-octahydrobenzo[1][ 1,4,7,10]tetraazacyclotetradecine (bz[14]N-4) is presented. The protonation constants of bz[14]N-4 and the stability constants of its complexes with Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+, Pb2+ were determined in H2O at 25degreesC with ionic strength 0.10 mol dm(-3) in KNO3 and they were compared with structurally related macrocycles cyclam (1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane) and cyclen (1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane). These studies indicate that only 1 : 1 ( M : L) species are formed in solution, and the ligand exhibits a high affinity for larger ions such as Cd2+ and Pb2+. The X-ray study of [bz[14]N4H3](3+) shows that an inclusion compound with a chloride counter-anion is formed through NH...Cl hydrogen bonds. Spectroscopic data in solution ( electronic and NMR spectra) showed that the macrocycle adopts a planar arrangement upon metal complexation. Molecular mechanics calculations reveal that in spite of the presence of the benzene ring in the macrocyclic framework this ligand can encapsulate metal ions with different stereo-electronic sizes in square planar arrangements. Our results indicate that the presence of the benzene ring in the backbone of the bz[14]N-4 confers a coordination behaviour intermediate between that of cyclam and cyclen.

Investigation of the prototype silylene reaction, SiH2+H2O(and D2O): time-resolved gas-phase kinetic studies, isotope effects, RRKM calculations, and quantum chemical calculations of the reaction energy surface

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, with H2O and with D2O have been carried out in the gas phase at 296 and at 339 K, using laser flash photolysis to generate and monitor SiH2. The reaction was studied over the pressure range 10-200 Torr with SF6 as bath gas. The second-order rate constants obtained were pressure dependent, indicating that the reaction is a third-body assisted association process. Rate constants at 339 K were about half those at 296 K. Isotope effects, k(H)/k(D), were small averaging 1.076 0.080, suggesting no involvement of H- (or D-) atom transfer in the rate determining step. RRKM modeling was undertaken based on a transition state appropriate to formation of the expected zwitterionic donoracceptor complex, H2Si...OH2. Because the reaction is close to the low pressure (third order) region, it is difficult to be definitive about the activated complex structure. Various structures were tried, both with and without the incorporation of rotational modes, leading to values for the high-pressure limiting (i.e., true secondorder) rate constant in the range 9.5 x 10(-11) to 5 x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule' s(-1). The RRKM modeling and mechanistic interpretation is supported by ab initio quantum calculations carried out at the G2 and G3 levels. The results are compared and contrasted with the previous studies.

Reactions of silylene with unreactive molecules. 2. nitrogen: gas-phase kinetic and theoretical studies

Time-resolved studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, with N-2 have been attempted at 296, 417, and 484 K, using laser flash photolysis to generate and monitor SiH2. No conclusive evidence for reaction could be found even with pressures of N-2 of 500 Torr. This enables us to set upper limits of ca. 3 x 10(-15) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for the second-order rate constants. A lower limit for the activation energy, E-a, of ca. 47 kJ mol(-1) is also derived. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level indicate that the only SiH2N2 species of lower energy than the separated reactants is the H2Si...N-2 donor-acceptor (ylid) species with a relative enthalpy of -26 kJ mol(-1), insufficient for observation of reaction under the experimental conditions. Ten bound species on the SiH2N2 surface were found and their energies calculated as well as those of the potential dissociation products: HSiN + NH((3)Sigma(-)) and HNSi + NH((3)Sigma(-)). Additionally two of the transition states involving cyclic-SiH2N2 (siladiazirine) were explored. It appears that siladiazirine is neither thermodynamically nor kinetically stable. The findings indicate that Si-N-d bonds (where N-d is double-bonded nitrogen) are not particularly strong. An unexpected cyclic intermediate was found in the isomerization of silaisocyanamide to silacyanamide.

13C-2H correlation NMR spectroscopy studies of the in vivo transformations of natural products from Artemisia annua

13C-2H correlation NMR spectroscopy (13C-2H COSY) permits the identification of 13C and 2H nuclei which are connected to one another by a single chemical bond via the sizeable 1JCD coupling constant. The practical development of this technique is described using a 13C-2H COSY pulse sequence which is derived from the classical 13C-1H correlation experiment. An example is given of the application of 13C-2H COSY to the study of the biogenesis of natural products from the anti-malarial plant Artemisia annua, using a doubly-labelled precursor molecule. Although the biogenesis of artemisinin, the anti-malarial principle from this species, has been extensively studied over the past twenty years there is still no consensus as to the true biosynthetic route to this important natural product – indeed, some published experimental results are directly contradictory. One possible reason for this confusion may be the ease with which some of the metabolites from A. annua undergo spontaneous autoxidation, as exemplified by our recent in vitro studies of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid, and the application of 13C-2H COSY to this biosynthetic problem has been important in helping to mitigate against such processes. In this in vivo application of 13C-2H COSY, [15-13C2H3]-dihydroartemisinic acid (the doubly-labelled analogue of the natural product from this species which was obtained through synthesis) was fed to A. annua plants and was shown to be converted into several natural products which have been described previously, including artemisinin. It is proposed that all of these transformations occurred via a tertiary hydroperoxide intermediate, which is derived from dihyroartemisinic acid. This intermediate was observed directly in this feeding experiment by the 13C-2H COSY technique; its observation by more traditional procedures (e.g., chromatographic separation, followed by spectroscopic analysis of the purified product) would have been difficult owing to the instability of the hydroperoxide group (as had been established previously by our in vitro studies of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid). This same hydroperoxide has been reported as the initial product of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid in our previous in vitro studies. Its observation in this feeding experiment by the 13C-2H COSY technique, a procedure which requires the minimum of sample manipulation in order to achieve a reliable identification of metabolites (based on both 13C and 2H chemical shifts at the 15-position), provides the best possible evidence for its status as a genuine biosynthetic intermediate, rather than merely as an artifact of the experimental procedure.

Dinuclear copper and zinc complexes of a hexaazamacrocycle containing p-xylyl spacers and bridging anions: theoretical and spectroscopic studies

The hexaazamacrocycle 7,22-dimethyl-3,7,11,18,22,26-hexaazatricyclo[26.2.2.2(13,16)] tetratriaconta-1(30), 13,15,28,31,33- hexaene (Me-2[30] pbz(2)N(6)) was synthesized and characterised by single crystal X-ray diffraction. The macrocycle adopts a conformation with the two aromatic rings almost parallel at a distance of ca. 4.24 Angstrom, but displaced relative to each other by ca. 1.51 Angstrom. The protonation constants of this compound and the stability constants of its complexes with Cu2+ and Zn2+, were determined in water - methanol (9 : 1 v/v) at 25 degreesC with ionic strength 0.10 mol dm(-3) in KCl. The potentiometric and spectroscopic studies (NMR of zinc, cadmium and lead complexes, and EPR of the copper complexes) indicate the formation of only dinuclear complexes. The association constants of the dinuclear copper complex with anions ( thiocyanate, terephthalate and glyphosate) and neutral molecules (1,4-benzenedimethanol, p-xylylenediamine and terephthalic acid) were determined at 20 degreesC in methanol. The structural preferences of this ligand and of its dinuclear copper(II) complex with a variety of bridging ligands were evaluated theoretically by molecular mechanics calculations (MM) and molecular dynamics (MD) using quenching techniques.

Mono- and binuclear bipyridyl derivatives of the Mo(eta(3)-C3H5)(CO)(2) fragment: structural studies and fluxionality in solution

New mono- and binuclear complexes of the Mo(eta(3)-C3H5)(CO)(2) fragment, containing bipyridyl ligands (2,2'-bpy, 4,4'-Me-2-2,2'-bpy) as chelates, and mono- (4-CNpy, 4-Mepy, NCMe, Br) or bidentate nitrogen ligands (4,4'-bpy, bipyridylethylene, pyrazine) as terminal or bridging ligands, respectively, were prepared. The binuclear complex [{Mo(eta(3)-C3H5)(CO)(2)(2,2'-bpy)}(2)(mu-4,4'-bpy)][PF6](2) (2) was shown by X-ray diffraction to assemble in the crystal forming large channels with a rectangular section. A longer bridge, such as bipyridylethylene, led to a different structure (3). 4-CNpy behaved as monodentate ligand (4), coordinating through the pyridine nitrogen as a terminal ligand. NMR spectroscopy studies showed that the complexes exhibited a fluxional behavior in solution, the endo and exo forms of the more symmetrical equatorial isomers being usually present and interconverting in solution. The solid state structures of the complexes revealed a preference for the more symmetrical equatorial isomer, with the two chelate ligands in trans positions in the binuclear species. The rings tended to become parallel in the organized crystal. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.