Common Features in Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis consists of four manuscripts in the area of nonlinear time series econometrics on topics of testing, modeling and forecasting nonlinear common features. The aim of this thesis is to develop new econometric contributions for hypothesis testing and forecasting in these area. Both stationary and nonstationary time series are concerned. A definition of common features is proposed in an appropriate way to each class. Based on the definition, a vector nonlinear time series model with common features is set up for testing for common features. The proposed models are available for forecasting as well after being well specified. The first paper addresses a testing procedure on nonstationary time series. A class of nonlinear cointegration, smooth-transition (ST) cointegration, is examined. The ST cointegration nests the previously developed linear and threshold cointegration. An Ftypetest for examining the ST cointegration is derived when stationary transition variables are imposed rather than nonstationary variables. Later ones drive the test standard, while the former ones make the test nonstandard. This has important implications for empirical work. It is crucial to distinguish between the cases with stationary and nonstationary transition variables so that the correct test can be used. The second and the fourth papers develop testing approaches for stationary time series. In particular, the vector ST autoregressive (VSTAR) model is extended to allow for common nonlinear features (CNFs). These two papers propose a modeling procedure and derive tests for the presence of CNFs. Including model specification using the testing contributions above, the third paper considers forecasting with vector nonlinear time series models and extends the procedures available for univariate nonlinear models. The VSTAR model with CNFs and the ST cointegration model in the previous papers are exemplified in detail,and thereafter illustrated within two corresponding macroeconomic data sets.

October 2012: Volume 2 Issue 1

In this Issue: Friends of Dacus Endowment Nears GoalDacus Library of Winthrop UniversityMedieval Manuscripts Acquired; Carlisle Recognized by Friends

Efeito da azitromicina como coadjuvante no tratamento da periodontite em indiv��duos jovens : defechos cl��nicos preliminares

O presente ensaio cl��nico randomizado, duplo-cego, em paralelo, controlado por placebo, teve como objetivo comparar, a curto prazo, raspagem e alisamento radiculares subgengivais (RASUB) com e sem o uso de azitromicina no tratamento da periodontite em indiv��duos jovens. Foram convidados 20 indiv��duos (13-26 anos de idade) com profundidade de sondagem (PS) ���4 mm e perda de inser����o cl��nica (PI) ���4 mm, associados a sangramento �� sondagem periodontal (SS), em pelo menos um primeiro molar e/ou incisivo permanente ap��s o tratamento da gengivite. Os indiv��duos foram aleatoriamente distribu��dos, ap��s estratifica����o para fumo e extens��o de doen��a, em um grupo teste (azitromicina 500 mg, 24/24 horas por tr��s dias) e um controle (placebo). O exame foi realizado ap��s 14 dias de controle de placa supragengival. RASUB foi realizada por um ��nico periodontista num per��odo m��ximo de duas semanas. A medica����o foi iniciada no primeiro dia de raspagem subgengival. Um examinador calibrado avaliou os ��ndices de Placa Vis��vel (IPV) e de Sangramento Gengival (ISG), c��lculo (C), PS, recess��o gengival (RG) e SS, no in��cio e ap��s tr��s meses do t��rmino da RASUB. O n��vel de inser����o cl��nica (NIC) foi obtido com o somat��rio de PS e RG. A an��lise foi realizada apenas com os s��tios com PS���4 mm e PI���4 mm. PS e NIC foram comparados entre os grupos atrav��s de teste t n��o-pareado e de an��lise de covari��ncia, tendo placa como covari��vel IPV, ISG, C e SS foram comparados utilizando a Prova U de Mann-Whitney. A unidade anal��tica foi o indiv��duo (alfa=5%). 16 indiv��duos finalizaram o estudo (8 por grupo). Foram observadas redu����es significativas no IPV, ISG e C nos dois grupos, n��o havendo diferen��as significativas entre eles ao final do estudo. Ambos os grupos apresentaram redu����es significativas na PS, por��m o grupo teste apresentou redu����o significativamente maior do que o controle nas bolsas com PS���7 mm, mesmo ap��s ajuste para placa (3,33��0,30 mm e 2,14��0,35 mm, respectivamente). Considerando todas as bolsas e apenas bolsas de 4-6 mm, n��o houve diferen��as significativas entre os grupos. Tamb��m n��o houve diferen��as entre os grupos em rela����o ao ganho de inser����o cl��nica, embora apenas o grupo teste tenha demonstrado ganho significativo de inser����o de 2,09��0,15 mm em bolsas profundas. Pode-se concluir que, a curto prazo, o uso coadjuvante de azitromicina, comparado ao placebo, na terapia mec��nica subgengival precedida de controle de placa supragengival em indiv��duos jovens, resultou em maiores redu����es de profundidade de sondagem em bolsas profundas.

Cat��logo dos livros de Horas da Biblioteca Nacional do Brasil

O presente trabalho objetivou identificar a cole����o dos livros de horas da Biblioteca Nacional do Brasil, com vistas a produzir um cat��logo. A cole����o abrange nove livros manuscritos iluminados; neste trabalho, por��m, foram identificados apenas os oito livros produzidos na segunda metade do s��culo XV. Quatro desses livros s��o provenientes da Real Biblioteca ��� Casa do Infantado, que veio para o Brasil em 1808 com a fam��lia real portuguesa, tornando-se o n��cleo inicial da Biblioteca Nacional brasileira. Na primeira parte apresentamos as considera����es te��ricas situando o per��odo no qual o livro de horas se inscreve, destacando a sua import��ncia, tanto na sociedade quanto no desenvolvimento da piedade do homem na cristandade medieval. Apresentamos tamb��m um breve hist��rico da Biblioteca Nacional, deposit��ria da cole����o dos livros de horas e, concluindo a primeira parte, os dados referentes �� constru����o do cat��logo. A segunda parte �� o cat��logo propriamente dito, onde os livros est��o descritos obedecendo ��s normas internacionais vigentes, viabilizando o acesso, a divulga����o e o interc��mbio de informa����es, promovendo assim a valoriza����o e a preserva����o desses bens culturais e patrimoniais.

Aliena����o e transcend��ncia: a realidade e o devir humano: um estudo da pr��xis educativa �� luz da teoria da aliena����o de Marx

Trata-se aqui de um estudo da teoria da aliena����o em Marx, e de uma reflex��o sobre a pr��tica educativa �� luz dessa teoria. A investiga����o da teoria da aliena����o em Marx inclue um estudo dos interlocutores que o precedem na constru����o desse conceito. Na sistematiza����o desta teoria em Marx, tr��s obras s��o privilegiadas: Manuscritos econ��micos e filos��ficos de 1844, A ideologia alem��, Elementos fundamentais para a critica da economia politica (Grundrisse). Rompendo com a vis��o metaf��sica que pretende dar �� aliena����o um significado ontol��gico e mistificador, Marx toma-a como uma forma hist��rica de rela����o humana e a analisa em suas m��ltiplas dimens��es. A luz da teoria da aliena����o, empreende-se, na 2�� parte deste trabalho uma cr��tica �� vis��o metaf��sica da educa����o, que reduz a aliena����o a uma quest��o cognitiva que se resolve no campo da consci��ncia, sendo super��vel, portanto, no ��mbito educativo. Op��e-se a essa perspectiva a no����o de que a consci��ncia n��o alienada s�� pode ser pensada como consci��ncia de uma sociedade plenamente humana. Situada no contexto da sociedade alienada a educa����o tem como possibilidade contribuir como uma media����o pr��tico-te��rica para supera����o da aliena����o, desde que se articule com o conjunto das pr��ticas sociais e pol��ticas transformadoras.

Avalia����o da pol��tica p��blica de acessibilidade no per��odo de 1992 a 2002 na Cidade do Natal

Este estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar los avances y l��mites de las pol��ticas de accesibilidad en la ciudad de Natal. Se investigan las pol��ticas publicas municipales de accesibilidad implantadas en los diez a��os subsecuentes, a partir de la sanci��n de la Ley Municipal de Accesibilidad N�� 4.090 del 03 de junio de 1992, que torna obligatorio la eliminaci��n de las barreras arquitect��nicas para personas con discapacidades en los lugares de circulaci��n de peatones y edificios de uso p��blico de la ciudad. Accesibilidad, en los proyectos de arquitectura y urbanismo es la condici��n esencial para asegurar a cualquier ciudadano su derecho a ir y venir con seguridad, dignidad y autonom��a. Esta investigaci��n se concentra en los barrios de: ciudad alta, Petr��polis y Ribeira, ya que esta ��rea, en el per��odo ya mencionado, fue la que tuvo una mayor concentraci��n del presupuesto de inversiones p��blicas municipales de la ciudad de Natal, en la eliminaci��n de barreras arquitect��nicas en v��as urbanas. El m��todo adoptado fue el hipot��tico deductivo, a partir de la formulaci��n de dos hip��tesis de trabajo: la primera, una divergencia entre los objetivos propuestos por la Ley N�� 4.090 y sus aplicaciones pr��cticas y, la segunda, de las diferencias que existen en el grado de entendimiento del concepto de accesibilidad, para eso, se realiz�� una colecta y an��lisis de datos tanto emp��ricos como te��ricos. Este estudio tambi��n retrata en el a��o de 2004, con el uso de la t��cnica de la fotograf��a, la realidad actual de la ciudad sirviendo como un par��metro comparativo con los proyectos asociados a la Coordinaci��n para integraci��n de las personas con discapacidades. Se utiliza la t��cnica de entrevista con especialistas en accesibilidad envueltos a lo largo del proceso de implantaci��n de las pol��ticas p��blicas en la ciudad de Natal, durante los a��os mencionados, obteniendo as�� un testimonio sobre las directrices adoptadas en ese per��odo, con base en la legislaci��n vigente. En la investigaci��n documental y fotogr��fica se realiza una evaluaci��n de la dimensi��n real de lo propuesto y ejecutado en un periodo de diez a��os, y se concluye sobre todos los avances y retrocesos de las pol��ticas de gestiones p��blicas adoptadas con relaci��n a la accesibilidad en la ciudad de Natal

A cidade sem barreiras �� para todos?: avalia����o das condi����es de deslocamento no bairro da Cidade Alta, Natal/RN

In this present work, the conditions of displacements and the behaviors of the users are evaluated, face to the physical adequacies in accessibility in the inserted area in the central quadrilateral of the Quarter of Cidade Alta, in the City of Natal/RN, space clipping established by its great meaning historical and cultural. For this reason such area was a target of an integrated actions plan during the years of 1993 and 1998, with the implantation of part of the Project CIDADE SEM BARREIRAS (City without Barriers) and, later, the implementation of the Project CIDADE PARA TODOS's proposals (City for All), having as supports the constant Brazilian norms inserted into the NB9050/1994 and in the Municipal law number 4.090/92, effective ones in the period of the interventions. Considering that the carried through actions at the time were directed to the elimination of the architectural barriers to guarantee the right to go and to come, the research received a human universe formed by all the people in situation of displacement in the central area of the interventions in the quarter of the Cidade Alta, independently of their locomotive or sensorial conditions, emphasizing the aspects most excellent how much to the accessibility of the sidewalk, as promotional of mobility, integration and urban organization, as well as of the public squares of that one quadrilateral, conceived, originally, as spaces of aggregation and social inclusion. The work appealed to the direct comment and the gotten results had been collated with the ex port facto law and technique norms, of the year of 2004, and with the legal devices contained in the Federal Decree number 5.296/2004, as way to certify the levels of efficiency of these adaptations in that it says respect to the current conditions of demanded accessibility and urban mobility

Avalia����o do desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor em crian��as na rede b��sica de sa��de utilizando o teste de Denver II: identifica����o de fatores de risco materno

Alterations in the neuropsychomotor development of children are not rare and can manifest themselves with varying intensity at different stages of their development. In this context, maternal risk factors may contribute to the appearance of these alterations. A number of studies have reported that neuropsychomotor development diagnosis is not an easy task, especially in the basic public health network. Diagnosis requires effective, low-cost, and easy - to-apply procedures. The Denver Developmental Screening Test, first published in 1967, is currently used in several countries. It has been revised and renamed as the Denver II Test and meets the aforementioned criteria. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to apply the Denver II Test in order to verify the prevalence of suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in children between the ages of 0 and 12 months and correlate it with the following maternal risk factors: family income, schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during pregnancy, gestational age, gestational problems, type of delivery and the desire to have children. For data collection, performed during the first 6 months of 2004, a clinical assessment was made of 398 children selected by pediatricians and the nursing team of each public health unit. Later, the parents or guardians were asked to complete a structured questionnaire to determine possible risk indicators of neuropsychomotor development delay. Finally the Denver II Developmental Screening Test (DDST) was applied. The data were analyzed together, using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software, version 6.1. The confidence interval was set at 95%. The Denver II Test yielded normal and questionable results. This suggests compromised neuropsychomotor development in the children examined and deserves further investigation. The correlation of the results with preestablished maternal risk variables (family income, mother s schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during the pregnancy and gestational age) was strongly significant. The other maternal risk variables (gestational problems, type of delivery and desire to have children) were not significant. Using an adjusted logistic regression model, we obtained the estimate of the greater likelihood of a child having suspected neuropsychomotor development delay: a mother with _75 4 years of schooling, chronological age less than 20 years and a drug user during pregnancy. This study produced two manuscripts, one published in Acta Cir��rgica Brasileira , in which an analysis was performed of children with suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in the city of Natal, Brazil. The other paper (to be published) analyzed the magnitude of the independent variable maternal schooling associated to neuropsychomotor development delay, every 3 months during the first twelve months of life of the children selected.. The results of the present study reinforce the multifactorial characteristic of development and the cumulative effect of maternal risk factors, and show the need for a regional policy that promotes low-cost programs for the community, involving children at risk of neuropsychomotor development delay. Moreover, they suggest the need for better qualified health professionals in terms of monitoring child development. This was an inter- and multidisciplinary study with the integrated participation of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and professionals from other areas, such as statisticians and information technology professionals, who met all the requirements of the Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte

A pr��tica de atividade f��sica de crian��as e adolescentes com e sem epilepsia

The epilepsy is one of the neurological disorders more common in the pediatric period, and which interferes significantly in the psycho and social life of children and teenagers. The objective of this study was analyzing the practice of sedentary practices, physicals, traditional infant fun and games of children and teenagers with and without epilepsy. The study was prospective, transversal descriptive, done with 60 children and teenagers with epilepsy (Epileptic Group - EG) patients from Pediatric Neurology Clinic of the Centre Integrated Health Lineu Ara��jo and 60 children and teenagers without epilepsy (Control Group - CG) students from municipal public school, both of the two groups paired with the same age (age group 7 to 14 years) of both the genders (female = 25/41,6% and male = 35/58,3%) of the Teresina city Piau��. It was done two pattern questionnaires, one applied to children and teenagers of the EG and CG to identify the sedentary activities, physical and traditional infant games and other to the parents/responsible of the EG about the clinical and demographic information. The results permitted the elaboration of two manuscripts: a) the first one titled The Practice of Sedentary and Physical Activities of Children and Teenagers with Epilepsy which showed significant difference in the sedentary activities of playing with car toy (p=0,021) to the EG and reading to the CG (p=0,001); in the physical activities the school physical education (p=0,001) and riding a bike (p=0,014) to the CG; b) the second one The Practice of Infant Games and Fun the children and teenagers with and without Epilepsy in this one the playing with marble presented significant difference (p=0,016) to the CG, despite the girls of the two groups don t do this activity. Observing the distribution of frequencies, it was verified that in the play catch-up and hide-and-seek and burn the EG plays more than the CG both in female and male gender. The girls of the EG play less skip, 60 while the boys of the two groups don t play. Elastic jump the girls of the two groups play in a same frequency and the boys don t participate of this fun. The seizures were found to occur during: soccer (23,3%); hide-and-seek (6,6%) and running (3,3%). In the sedentary activities, seizures were reported to occur: resting and watching TV (18,3%), sleeping (36,0%); sitting (13,3%) and lying down (11,7%). Our results showed that the epileptic group and the controls group engage in the same activities, although the epileptic group participates less than the controls. Although the EG had presented a bigger percentage of generalized attacks, they don t occur during the practice of formal physical activities. The research was developed by a multidisciplinary team, and this contributed a lot to the realization of this study

Exig��ncias de lisina digest��vel para aves de corte da linhagem ISA Label criadas em semiconfinamento

Foram realizados tr��s experimentos para determinar as exig��ncias de lisina digest��vel para aves da linhagem ISA Label, de ambos os sexos, criadas em semiconfinamento durante as fases: inicial (1 a 28 dias), de crescimento (28 a 56 dias) e final (56 a 84 dias). em cada experimento, foram utilizadas 480 aves, alojadas em 24 piquetes, cada um contendo abrigo coberto de 3,13m�� e ��rea de pastejo de 72,87m��. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o inteiramente ao acaso, em esquema fatorial 4x2 (n��veis de lisina e sexo) com tr��s repeti����es de 20 aves cada. Os n��veis de lisina digest��vel avaliados foram: 0,850; 0,970; 1,090 e 1,210% na fase inicial; 0,750; 0,870; 0,990 e 1,110% na fase de crescimento e 0,640; 0,760; 0,880 e 1,000% na fase final. Foram mensuradas as vari��veis de desempenho, caracter��stica de carca��a, deposi����o de prote��na e gordura corporal, peso e teor de prote��na das penas. Com base nos resultados de desempenho, recomendam-se 1, 041; 1,006 e 0,760% de lisina digest��vel em ra����es para aves ISA Label nas fases inicial, de crescimento e final, respectivamente.

O ritual simb��lico do Ctrl+C (copiar ) e Ctrl+V (colar) no ensino m��dio

Nowadays, technology has a direct influence on the relationship student and teacher have with language. The internet is a powerful tool in helping work with the language and, through it, the knowledge comes to the student easily and intensely. Furthermore, this facility has enhanced and made visible what has been called, within the University community, "plagiarism generation." This work assumes that this generation has, in their written texts, symbolic movements similar to those of "copy and paste" applied to research work carried out by high school students. Taking this as starting point, this dissertation aims to analyze how high school students of the 1st year from a school in Natal (RN) construct texts, under the movements known as "Ctrl + c" and "Ctrl + v", with reference to the text of the "other". More specific issues are behind the general objective, namely: 1. how the student appropriates the source-text when he copies and pastes? 2. What are the categories of analysis that allow us to look analytically and theoretically for the "ctrl + c / ctrl + v" practice made by the student? 2. how the studies developed in the fields of "Genetic Criticism" (Gr��sillon, 1987), the "school manuscripts" (Calil, 2004) and "paraphrase" (Fuchs, 1982) may help in working with writing in the classroom standing as a possible way to minimize the copy and paste effects in the students texts? Thus, we observe the categories of analysis that allow us to look, theoretically and analytically, for the symbolic ritual of the "ctrl + c" (copy) and "ctrl + v" (paste) in high school. Our study shows that the student text is a "hybrid body" whose writing is a drawing entanglement because of the presence of the foreign text, verbatim, and the presence of linguistic elements to paraphrase the original text.This textual embodiment has, behind it, certain operations, namely: replacing, moving, adding and deleting statements. Given the specificity of the data and the research objectives, this study aligns with qualitative research methods (SILVERMAN, 2009) and falls within the knowledge field of Applied Linguistics, which is characterized especially by investigating problems, phenomena in which language in a real situation is taken as central (BRUMFIT, 1995).Theoretically, our work follows the approach of studies on the paraphrase (Fuchs, 1982, 1994a, 1994b; DAUNAY, 1997, 1999, 2002a, 2002b), the studies developed in the field of Genetic Criticism (Gr��sillon, 1987, 1994, 1992, 2008 ) and those developed by Eduardo Calil (2004) on "school manuscripts"

Vaga-lume na treva: a poesia de Jo��o Lins Caldas

This thesis analyses the poetry of Jo��o Lins Caldas (1888-1967), in Brazilian literature context, aiming at describing and understanding the main features of his poetry. Thus, this research presents a corpus to be worked on: the poems in Poeira do c��u e outros poemas (2009). Our study is characterized by a biographical, historiographical and critical tendency, by trying to organize the manuscripts of the author and biographical aspects while analyzing his poems. It is showed the relation between Brazilian poetry written by some authors, since the parnasianism and symbolism period until the twentieth century. On the one hand, our analysis is based on the ideas and criticism by Antonio Candido (2006; 2002; 1985), discussing the process of formation of Brazilian literature and the procedure to analyse poetry. It is also based on the concept of poetry and resistance, developed by Alfredo Bosi (2000; 2002), and the notion of Brazilian matter, identified by Roberto Schwarz (1987, 1997, 1999). On the other hand, this work focuses on melancholy under the theoretical ideas of authors such as Aristotle (1998), Walter Benjamin (1984), Jaime Ginzburg (1997) and Moacyr Scliar (2003). This focus on melancholy contributes to a better understanding of one of the main themes found in the poems analysed. By studying the poetry of Jo��o Lins Caldas, it was perceived the relevance of melancholy and resistance in his verses. This can be seen in his dissonant language, characterized by the broken syntax in his verses, as well as contradictory images and complex meanings in his poetry. This causes the effect of unfamiliarity on the reader. His poetry is the result of a style that finds its place in the best moment of modern Brazilian poetry and reveals its singularity through the inverted syntax with powerful themes such as love, death, pain, delusion, loss, memory, nature and God. All of them are aspects of Brazilian historicity. Finally, the work of Jo��o Lins Caldas is part of a multifaceted poetry

O sert��o vai para o Al��m-Mar : a rela����o centro e periferia e as f��bricas de couro em Pernambuco nos setecentos

This thesis focuses on the economic relations in the interior of the Portuguese America, more specifically in Pernambuco Captancy in the 17th Century, concerning the discussion about center-periphery relationship and also the context of Brazilian colonial history. In addition, it portrays the exportations of leather to Portugal, their consequences in the Captaincy of Pernambuco and the businessmen involved in the trade and manufacturing of that product. In order to accomplish this work, manuscripts of Arquivo Hist��rico Ultramarino (Ultramarine Historical Archives), colonial narratives and maps of the mercantile loads have been used so that one can visualize that the manufacturing of leather and other products have provided a social and economical connection among Pernambuco, Recife as trade center, Olinda as administrative municipality and Portugal

Strutural and optical approach of CdS@ZnS core-shell system

Coordena����o de Aperfei��oamento de Pessoal de N��vel Superior (CAPES)

Ontog��nese comportamental de Callithix jacchus em ambiente natural

In most primates, the mother is primarily responsible for care in early life of the infants, since, as in other mammals, infants depend on their mother to nutritional conditions. However, unlike most of them, in some species, infants are also dependent on other individuals with respect to transportation, supervision, and food sharing. To understand the distribution of care to offspring is essential to understand the social dynamics of the group. Several studies conducted in the natural environment, during the infant have been studied mainly through the careful transport of the infants. Our study approached the different forms of care to infants (transport, supervision and food sharing) and the development of behavioral repertoire throughout all phases of infant and juvenile seeking to better understand how to establish the development and survival of offspring of Callithrix jacchus, in natural environment. The seasonality in the caatinga was striking in this study and the collection had two distinct seasons for each of the sets observed, one dry and one rainy. These environmental changes seem to have influenced the distribution of activities in animal development. Yet the greater availability of resources in the rainy season seems to have been the main factor influencing the pattern of activities. Results will be presented in two manuscripts