Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Characterizing major avalanche episodes in space and time in the twentieth and early twentyfirst centuries in the Catalan Pyrenees

With the aim of better understanding avalanche risk in the Catalan Pyrenees, the present work focuses on the analysis of major (or destructive) avalanches. For such purpose major avalanche cartography was made by an exhaustive photointerpretation of several flights, winter and summer field surveys and inquiries to local population. Major avalanche events were used to quantify the magnitude of the episodes during which they occurred, and a Major Avalanche Activity Magnitude Index (MAAMI) was developed. This index is based on the number of major avalanches registered and its estimated frequency in a given time period, hence it quantifies the magnitude of a major avalanche episode or winter. Furthermore, it permits a comparison of the magnitude between major avalanche episodes in a given mountain range, or between mountain ranges, and for a long enough period, it should allow analysis of temporal trends. Major episodes from winter 1995/96 to 2013/14 were reconstructed. Their magnitude, frequency and extent were also assessed. During the last 19 winters, the episodes of January 22-23 and February 6-8 in 1996 were those with highest MAAMI values,followed by January 30-31, 2003, January 29, 2006, and January 24-25, 2014. To analyze the whole twentieth century, a simplified MAAMI was defined in order to attain the same purpose with a less complete dataset. With less accuracy, the same parameters were obtained at winter time resolution throughout the twentieth century. Again, 1995/96 winter had the highest MAAMI value followed by 1971/72, 1974/75 and 1937/38 winter seasons. The analysis of the spatial extent of the different episodes allowed refining the demarcation of nivological regions, and improving our knowledge about the atmospheric patterns that cause major episodes and their climatic interpretation. In some cases, the importance of considering a major avalanche episode as the result of a previous preparatory period, followed by a triggering one was revealed.

The Role of the Delay Time in the Modeling of Biological Range Expansions

The time interval between successive migrations of biological species causes a delay time in the reaction-diffusion equations describing their space-time dynamics. This lowers the predicted speed of the waves of advance, as compared to classical models. It has been shown that this delay-time effect improves the modeling of human range expansions. Here, we demonstrate that it can also be important for other species. We present two new examples where the predictions of the time-delayed and the classical (Fisher) approaches are compared to experimental data. No free or adjustable parameters are used. We show that the importance of the delay effect depends on the dimensionless product of the initial growth rate and the delay time. We argue that the delay effect should be taken into account in the modeling of range expansions for biological species

Multi-Eruption Solar Energetic Particle Events Observed by SOHO/ERNE

In the last two decades of studying the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) phenomenon, intensive emphasis has been put on how and when and where these SEPs are injected into interplanetary space. It is well known that SEPs are related to solar flares and CMEs. However, the role of each in the acceleration of SEPs has been under debate since the major role was taken from flares ascribed to CMEs step by step after the skylab mission, which started the era of CME spaceborn observations. Since then, the shock wave generated by powerful CMEs in between 2-5 solar radii is considered the major accelerator. The current paradigm interprets the prolonged proton intensity-time profile in gradual SEP events as a direct effect of accelerated SEPs by shock wave propagating in the interplanetary medium. Thus the powerful CME is thought of as a starter for the acceleration and its shock wave as a continuing accelerator to result in such an intensity-time profile. Generally it is believed that a single powerful CME which might or might not be associated with a flare is always the reason behind such gradual events.

In this work we use the Energetic and Relativistic Nucleus and Electrons ERNE instrument on board Solar and Heliospheric Observatory SOHO to present an empirical study to show the possibility of multiple accelerations in SEP events. In the beginning we found 18 double-peaked SEP events by examining 88 SEP events. The peaks in the intensity-time profile were separated by 3-24 hours. We divided the SEP events according to possible multiple acceleration into four groups and in one of these groups we find evidence for multiple acceleration in velocity dispersion and change in the abundance ratio associated at transition to the second peak. Then we explored the intensity-time profiles of all SEP events during solar cycle 23 and found that most of the SEP events are associated with multiple eruptions at the Sun and we call those events as Multi-Eruption Solar Energetic Particles (MESEP) events. We use the data available by Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph LASCO on board SOHO to determine the CME associated with such events and YOHKOH and GOES satellites data to determine the flare associated with such events. We found four types of MESEP according to the appearance of the peaks in the intensity-time profile in large variation of energy levels. We found that it is not possible to determine whether the peaks are related to an eruption at the Sun or not, only by examining the anisotropy flux, He/p ratio and velocity dispersion. Then we chose a rare event in which there is evidence of SEP acceleration from behind previous CME. This work resulted in a conclusion which is inconsistent with the current SEP paradigm. Then we discovered through examining another MESEP event, that energetic particles accelerated by a second CME can penetrate a previous CME-driven decelerating shock. Finally, we report the previous two MESEP events with new two events and find a common basis for second CME SEPs penetrating previous decelerating shocks. This phenomenon is reported for the first time and expected to have significant impact on modification of the current paradigm of the solar energetic particle events.

Specificity and selectivity improvement in doping analysis using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry was used for the identification of forty doping agents. The improvement in the specificity was remarkable, allowing the resolution of analytes that could not be done by one-dimensional chromatographic systems. The sensitivity observed for different classes of prohibited substances was clearly below the value required by the World Anti-Doping Agency. In addition time-of-flight mass spectrometry gives full spectrum for all analytes without any interference from the matrix, resulting in selectivity improvements. These results could support the implementation of an exhaustive monitoring approach for hundreds of doping agents in a single injection.

Dialysis, time and death: comparisons of two consecutive decades among patients treated at the same Brazilian dialysis center

The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced not only by well-known risk factors like age and comorbidity, but also by changes in dialysis technology and practices accumulated along time. We compared the survival curves, dialysis routines and some risk factors of two groups of patients admitted to a Brazilian maintenance hemodialysis program during two consecutive decades: March 1977 to December 1986 (group 1, N = 162) and January 1987 to June 1997 (group 2, N = 237). The median treatment time was 22 months (range 1-198). Survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank method. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to investigate the more important variables associated with outcome. The most important changes in dialysis routine and in patient care during the total period of observation were the progressive increase in the dose of dialysis delivered, the prohibition of potassium-free dialysate, the use of bicarbonate as a buffer and the upgrading of the dialysis equipment. There were no significant differences between the survival curves of the two groups. Survival rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were 84, 53 and 29%, respectively, for group 1 and 77, 42 and 21% for group 2. Patients in group 1 were younger (45.5 ± 15.2 vs 55.2 ± 15.9 years, P<0.001) and had a lower prevalence of diabetes (11.1 vs 27.4%, P<0.001) and of cardiovascular disease (9.3 vs 20.7%, P<0.001). According to the Cox multivariate model, only age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.05, P<0.001) and diabetes (HR 2.55, CI 1.82-3.58, P<0.001) were independent predictors of mortality for the whole group. Patients of group 2 had a lower prevalence of sudden death (19.1 vs 9.7%, P<0.001). After adjusting for age, diabetes and other mortality risk factors, the risk of death was 17% lower in group 2, although this difference was not statistically significant. We conclude that the negative effects of advanced age and of higher frequency of comorbidity on the survival of group 2 patients were probably offset by improvements in patient care and in the quality and dose of dialysis delivered, so that the survival curves did not undergo significant changes along time.

Two-phase flow measurements with spacer grid in a rod bundle geometry

Heat transfer effectiveness in nuclear rod bundles is of great importance to nuclear reactor safety and economics. An important design parameter is the Critical Heat Flux (CHF), which limits the transferred heat from the fuel to the coolant. The CHF is determined by flow behaviour, especially the turbulence created inside the fuel rod bundle. Adiabatic experiments can be used to characterize the flow behaviour separately from the heat transfer phenomena in diabatic flow. To enhance the turbulence, mixing vanes are attached to spacer grids, which hold the rods in place. The vanes either make the flow swirl around a single sub-channel or induce cross-mixing between adjacent sub-channels. In adiabatic two-phase conditions an important phenomenon that can be investigated is the effect of the spacer on canceling the lift force, which collects the small bubbles to the rod surfaces leading to decreased CHF in diabatic conditions and thus limits the reactor power. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) can be used to simulate the flow numerically and to test how different spacer configurations affect the flow. Experimental data is needed to validate and verify the used CFD models. Especially the modeling of turbulence is challenging even for single-phase flow inside the complex sub-channel geometry. In two-phase flow other factors such as bubble dynamics further complicate the modeling. To investigate the spacer grid effect on two-phase flow, and to provide further experimental data for CFD validation, a series of experiments was run on an adiabatic sub-channel flow loop using a duct-type spacer grid with different configurations. Utilizing the wire-mesh sensor technology, the facility gives high resolution experimental data in both time and space. The experimental results indicate that the duct-type spacer grid is less effective in canceling the lift force effect than the egg-crate type spacer tested earlier.

A time-dependent, two-step binding mode of the nitro dye flavianic acid to trypsin in acid media

Synthetic dyes bind to proteins causing selective coprecipitation of the complexes in acid aqueous solution by a process of reversible denaturation that can be used as an alternative method for protein fractionation. The events that occur before precipitation were investigated by equilibrium dialysis using bovine trypsin and flavianic acid as a model able to cause coprecipitation. A two-step mode of interaction was found to be dependent on the incubation periods allowed for binding, with pronounced binding occurring after 42 h of incubation. The first step seems to involve hydration effects and conformational changes induced by binding of the first dye molecule, following rapid denaturation due to the binding of six additional flavianate anions to the macromolecule.

Effect of carbohydrate availability on time to exhaustion in exercise performed at two different intensities

This study examined the effects of pre-exercise carbohydrate availability on the time to exhaustion for moderate and heavy exercise. Seven men participated in a randomized order in two diet and exercise regimens each lasting 3 days with a 1-week interval for washout. The tests were performed at 50% of the difference between the first (LT1) and second (LT2) lactate breakpoint for moderate exercise (below LT2) and at 25% of the difference between the maximal load and LT2 for heavy exercise (above LT2) until exhaustion. Forty-eight hours before each experimental session, subjects performed a 90-min cycling exercise followed by 5-min rest periods and a subsequent 1-min cycling bout at 125% VO2max/1-min rest periods until exhaustion to deplete muscle glycogen. A diet providing 10% (CHOlow) or 65% (CHOmod) energy as carbohydrates was consumed for 2 days until the day of the experimental test. In the exercise below LT2, time to exhaustion did not differ between the CHOmod and the CHOlow diets (57.22 ± 24.24 vs 57.16 ± 25.24 min). In the exercise above LT2, time to exhaustion decreased significantly from 23.16 ± 8.76 min on the CHOmod diet to 18.30 ± 5.86 min on the CHOlow diet (P < 0.05). The rate of carbohydrate oxidation, respiratory exchange ratio and blood lactate concentration were reduced for CHOlow only during exercise above LT2. These results suggest that muscle glycogen depletion followed by a period of a low carbohydrate diet impairs high-intensity exercise performance.

Relative performance of the two hands in simple and choice reaction time tasks

There is evidence that the left hemisphere is more competent for motor control than the right hemisphere. This study investigated whether this hemispheric asymmetry is expressed in the latency/duration of sequential responses performed by the left and/or right hands. Thirty-two right-handed young adults (16 males, 16 females; 18-25 years old) were tested in a simple or choice reaction time task. They responded to a left and/or right visual target by moving their left and/or right middle fingers between two keys on each side of the midline. Right hand reaction time did not differ from left hand reaction time. Submovement times were longer for the right hand than the left hand when the response was bilateral. Pause times were shorter for the right hand than the left hand, both when the responses were unilateral or bilateral. Reaction time results indicate that the putatively more efficient response preparation by the left hemisphere motor mechanisms is not expressed behaviorally. Submovement time and pause time results indicate that the putatively more efficient response execution by the left hemisphere motor mechanisms is expressed behaviorally. In the case of the submovements, the less efficient motor control of the left hand would be compensated by a more intense attention to this hand.

Novel retrograde puncture method to establish preperitoneal space for laparoscopic direct inguinal hernia repair with internal ring suturing

The aim of this study was to explore the clinical efficacy of a novel retrograde puncture approach to establish a preperitoneal space for laparoscopic direct inguinal hernia repair with inguinal ring suturing. Forty-two patients who underwent laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair with retrograde puncture for preperitoneal space establishment as well as inguinal ring suturing between August 2013 and March 2014 at our hospital were enrolled. Preperitoneal space was successfully established in all patients, with a mean establishment time of 6 min. Laparoscopic repairs were successful in all patients, with a mean surgical time of 26±15.1 min. Mean postoperative hospitalization duration was 3.0±0.7 days. Two patients suffered from postoperative local hematomas, which were relieved after puncturing and drainage. Four patients had short-term local pain. There were no cases of chronic pain. Patients were followed up for 6 months to 1 year, and no recurrence was observed. Our results demonstrate that preperitoneal space established by the retrograde puncture technique can be successfully used in adult laparoscopic hernioplasty to avoid intraoperative mesh fixation, and thus reduce medical costs.

Defining Contexts in Context-Free Grammars

This thesis introduces an extension of Chomsky’s context-free grammars equipped with operators for referring to left and right contexts of strings.The new model is called grammar with contexts. The semantics of these grammars are given in two equivalent ways — by language equations and by logical deduction, where a grammar is understood as a logic for the recursive definition of syntax. The motivation for grammars with contexts comes from an extensive example that completely defines the syntax and static semantics of a simple typed programming language. Grammars with contexts maintain most important practical properties of context-free grammars, including a variant of the Chomsky normal form. For grammars with one-sided contexts (that is, either left or right), there is a cubic-time tabular parsing algorithm, applicable to an arbitrary grammar. The time complexity of this algorithm can be improved to quadratic,provided that the grammar is unambiguous, that is, it only allows one parsefor every string it defines. A tabular parsing algorithm for grammars withtwo-sided contexts has fourth power time complexity. For these grammarsthere is a recognition algorithm that uses a linear amount of space. For certain subclasses of grammars with contexts there are low-degree polynomial parsing algorithms. One of them is an extension of the classical recursive descent for context-free grammars; the version for grammars with contexts still works in linear time like its prototype. Another algorithm, with time complexity varying from linear to cubic depending on the particular grammar, adapts deterministic LR parsing to the new model. If all context operators in a grammar define regular languages, then such a grammar can be transformed to an equivalent grammar without context operators at all. This allows one to represent the syntax of languages in a more succinct way by utilizing context specifications. Linear grammars with contexts turned out to be non-trivial already over a one-letter alphabet. This fact leads to some undecidability results for this family of grammars

Use of real-time PCR to evaluate two DNA extraction methods from food

The DNA extraction is a critical step in Genetically Modified Organisms analysis based on real-time PCR. In this study, the CTAB and DNeasy methods provided good quality and quantity of DNA from the texturized soy protein, infant formula, and soy milk samples. Concerning the Certified Reference Material consisting of 5% Roundup Ready® soybean, neither method yielded DNA of good quality. However, the dilution test applied in the CTAB extracts showed no interference of inhibitory substances. The PCR efficiencies of lectin target amplification were not statistically different, and the coefficients of correlation (R²) demonstrated high degree of correlation between the copy numbers and the threshold cycle (Ct) values. ANOVA showed suitable adjustment of the regression and absence of significant linear deviations. The efficiencies of the p35S amplification were not statistically different, and all R² values using DNeasy extracts were above 0.98 with no significant linear deviations. Two out of three R² values using CTAB extracts were lower than 0.98, corresponding to lower degree of correlation, and the lack-of-fit test showed significant linear deviation in one run. The comparative analysis of the Ct values for the p35S and lectin targets demonstrated no statistical significant differences between the analytical curves of each target.