Resuming growth in Latin America: short and long term policies

The authors of this paper assert that the paralysis of the state generated by the crises of the 1970s and 1980s deprived the economies of the region of an important lever to resume and sustain growth. They thus maintain that to overcome stagnation it will be necessary to reconstruct the state's capacity to implement pro-growth policies. Following Keynes and Kalecki's ideas, but also classical development economists, the authors argue, first, that short-term macroeconomic policies, to reduce unemployment and to increase the degree of capacity utilization, should be used to promote the generation of profits to firms and to wake up entrepreneurs' animal spirits. Short-term expansionary policies should be coupled with measures to improve competitiveness and avoid balance of payments problems. They also claim that alternatives to the liberal programme will fail unless a pro-growth strategy is adopted which includes both short- and long-term policies. They thus propose that long-term policies must complete the package, signaling: a) sustained increases of effective demand in the future; and b) investment priorities to ensure that capacities will be created in strategic sectors and branches of the economy.

Poder de barganha dos sindicatos e negociações coletivas na indústria do Rio Grande do Sul, 1979-1995

This paper analyses the relationship between bargaining outcomes in seventeen units regarding the manufacturing sector in Rio Grande do Sul, and change in the relevant economic environment from 1979 to 1995. Theories on the determinants of bargaining outcomes are discussed in order to provide a basis for hypothesizing about the specific case. Statistical outcomes suggest that collective bargaining have been basically influenced by unemployment, manufacturing relative prices, the stabilization policies starting in 1986, and, specifically for negotiated minimum wages, change in the official rates of minimum wages.

Protectionism and industrialization: a critical assessment of the Latin American industrialization period

Protectionist policies were considered one of the pivotal features of the import industrialization process in Latin America. In this paper the effects of protectionist policies are assessed in terms of the principal macroeconomic variables, productive structure and external trade composition; also, ECLAC's perspective on the import substitution process is discussed. The main conclusions are that regional protectionist policies were spontaneous, and their effects were limited due to the generalized protection that took place and the government's commitment to price stability.

Fluxos de investimento direto externo, competitividade e conteúdo tecnológico do comércio exterior da China no início do século XXI

Foreign direct investment flow, competitiveness and technological structure of foreign trade in China in the beginning of the 21st century. China's government introduced open market reforms in 1979, mediated by industrial policies improving the ability of attracting higher quality FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), which helped China's economy developing its technological capabilities. As a result, China's share in international trade rose impressively becoming third-largest trading nation in the world, by 2004, also its export structure is significantly more sophisticated. Facing the importance of understanding the determinants of developing word specialization patterns, this paper focuses on the competitiveness and technological structure of exports and imports by China for 1994-1998 and 2001-2005.

O neoliberalismo na America Latina

Neoliberalism in Latin America. Neoliberalism and globalization had decisive influence in shaping public policies both internal and foreign in Latin America. Less state, trade and market freedoms, social goals subordinated to economic criteria, are part and parcel of the neoliberal utopia. Price stability was erected as the main social objective; import substitution resulted replaced by exports as the main source of growth. The neoliberal net results as applied to Latin America are: less growth, deindustrialization, income concentration and precarious employments. Therefore, countries public policies should try to gain autonomy to use jointly markets and public intervention in a constructive and innovative fashion.

Rethinking macroeconomic policies for development

The global economic crisis has created an opportunity to rethink macroeconomics for development. Such rethinking is both necessary and desirable. It is essential to redefine macroeconomic objectives so that the emphasis is on fostering employment creation and supporting economic growth instead of the focus on price stability alone. It is just as important to rethink macroeconomic policies which cannot simply be used for the management of inflation and the elimination of macroeconomic imbalances, since fiscal and monetary policies are powerful and versatile instruments in the pursuit of development objectives. In doing so, it is essential to the overcome the constraints embedded in orthodox economic thinking and recognize the constraints implicit in the politics of ideology and interests.

Trade with China and strategy in South American recent economic development

Trade between South America and China has been an important source of the high growth shown by those economies in the 2000s. During the globalization of the 1990s, trade between the region and China had not developed so much. A rather sharp growth in China's presence in world trade since the beginning of the 2000s changed the world trade trends for MERCOSUR countries, or, at least, for many of them. The impact of the increasing trade of agrifood has been very relevant, and different per country. Strategy is another important issue, referring to bilateral relations with China. This country should be seen as a partner in the global trade, and not as a new foreign investor for the region, but this may be different in the context of different national strategies of South American countries.

Políticas productivas y competitividad industrial: El caso de Argentina y Brasil

This article aims, on the one hand, to analyze the increase of productive asymmetries between Argentina and Brazil that have been evidencing during the last two decades, and are currently reveled in the structural trade deficit of industrial products that affects Argentina in the bilateral relationship. On the other hand, it intends to contribute to understanding the roots of these asymmetries based on the differences in the public policies implemented by both countries during the period extending from the implementation of the Mercosur, in the early 1990s, until 2008. The focus is set on the technological pattern of industrial production and trade structures, considering a non neutral impact over the long term development.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

Neoliberalism and global capital mobility: a necessary reconsideration of textbook trade theory

Textbook theory ignores capital flows: trade determines exchange rates and specialisation. Approaches taking the effects of capital movements adequately into account are needed, and a new theory of economic policy including measures to protect the real economy from external volatility. Equilibrating textbook mechanisms cannot work unless trade-caused surpluses and deficits set exchange rates. To allow orthodox trade theory to work one must hinder capital flows from destroying its very basis, which the IMF and wrong regulatory decisions have done, penalising production and trade. A new, real economy based theory is proposed, a Neoclassical agenda of controlling capital flows and speculation.

Assessing the dynamics of terms of trade in a model of cumulative causation and structural change

ABSTRACT The motivation for this paper stems from the steady decline in the share of consumer expenditures on goods produced in the global south, coupled with the (empirically ambiguous) Singer/Prebisch hypothesis that this can be explained by a secular decline in the southern terms of trade. Drawing on these sources of inspiration, the paper sets out to study the dynamics of the terms of trade using a multi-sector growth model based on the principle of cumulative causation. The upshot is a North-South model of growth and trade in which the evolution of the terms of trade depends on differential rates of productivity growth in different sectors of the economy - and in which terms of trade dynamics may not be the best guide as to whether or not there is an uneven development problem.

On the creative economy chain in Brazil: potential and challenges

ABSTRACT The article presents an analysis of the Creative Economy in Brazil, showing its development potential for the generation of income and employment, in order to the country's development resumption. They are initially presented concepts and features of the Creative Economy for, in sequence, to analyze the economic development profile and potential of this industry in Brazil. The empirical part introduces some methodological aspects, in continuing with the analysis of the creative chain contribution to the generation of Value Added and employment in the country, and a vision of their foreign trade.potential. Finally, the challenges to the implementation of public policies are investigated.

Le relazioni Italo - Finlandesi nella documentazione del Ministero degli Affari Esteri italiano e nel "Memoriale" di Attilio Tamaro (1929-1935)

My doctoral thesis may be placed within the branch of studies on the history of international relations and it examines the development of Italian-Finnish bilateral relations during the mandate of Attilio Tamaro, the plenipotentiary Minister (1929-1935). The research is based exclusively on Italian sources, on the private documentation of the diplomat and on his “Memoriale”, which have been critically analysed, using theories, such as those on the policies of power, on the soft power and on foreign trade. This research aims to draw attention to the bilateral dynamics, and to bridge the gaps of the specific historiography, paying attention to the relations between the Lapua movement and Italian fascism, and to the role that the Minister Tamaro played. The 1929-1935 period is the most intense one in the bilateral relations, and it expands those already begun in the Twenties, thereby replacing the idea of a poor and backward Italy with that of a modern, strong and orderly country that fascism had been capable of building. The need for Finland to solve its internal problems led to the development of the lappist movement in the first few months of 1930 which, with its anticommunism and anti-parliamentarism, led conservative Finland to look towards the Italian political model with particular fondness. The Italian diplomacy, at least during the Grandi ministry, distinguished itself for its moderate involvement in its connections with lappism. After 1932, with the spread of universal fascism, opposing national-socialism, the relationships between fascism and the lappist movement intensified and led the IKL (Patriotic People’s Movement) into the Italian sphere. Actually, especially after 1933, what was the most effective instrument of Tamaro’s political action was culture: the Italian Readership, the cultural associations, and the use of the cinematic arts and art were the channels for the expansion of a cultural imperialism which abounded in political propaganda. With the War of Ethiopia in 1935, the good Italian-Finnish relationships partly cooled down because Italy appeared to be a dangerous nation for the stability of the security system of Finland. The research results are stimulating: they bring to light the ambitions of great power of monarchist-fascist Italy; they show the importance of the Italian example in inspiring the conservative Finnish right-wing; they allow one to hypothesize that there was at least an indirect influence of the Italian model on the development of Finnish events. The aspiration of our research is to stimulate further studies on diplomatic, military and trade relations between Italy and the Scandinavian countries from 1919 to today.

ATTITUDES TOWARD RUSSIAN CUSTOMERS IN THE FINNISH RETAIL TRADE SECTOR – A salesperson’s point of view

The amount of Russian tourists in Finland has increased significantly in the past years. The impact of Russian tourism to the Finnish retail trade sector is enormous, since Russian tourists often spend a lot of money particularly on shopping. Shopping tourism is mainly focused in the near border cities, such as Imatra and Lappeenranta, and in addition in Helsinki metropolitan area. The purpose of this study is to map the attitudes and perceptions of the sales personnel who are working in the Finnish retail trade sector towards Russian customers and to discover which elements affect these attitudes. The theories in this study are based on cultural elements and elements related to sales behavior and performance. Cultural differences between Finland and Russia, cultural distance and cultural intelligence form the cultural aspect of this study. Customer orientation vs. sales orientation (SOCO), adaptive selling, selling skills and job competency, salesperson’s affect and empathy toward customers, and job autonomy form the elements concerning sales behavior and performance. Furthermore, the attitude – behavior link, based on social psychology is addressed. A survey was conducted in two retail trade chains operating in Finland. These retail companies have stores and department stores in different geographical areas in Finland and the survey was conducted in altogether 19 cities. In addition to the theories that were discussed, two expert interviews were conducted in order to get a deeper understanding of the phenomenon at hand. Moreover the interviews helped in the formulation of the hypotheses and the questionnaire design. The questionnaires were sent directly to the stores, where they were placed so that they were available for the sales personnel. Altogether 487 usable responses were collected. The returned questionnaires were analyzed with IBM SPSS 21 statistics program. The results of this study indicated that the attitudes toward Russian customers are more negative compared to other foreign customers. However, the respondents’ attitudes toward and perceptions of Russian customers varied a lot. From the background variables age, education level, length of employment in current workplace, and length of experience in customer service had an effect on the attitudes of the respondents. In addition, the perceptions of Russian customers were more positive in the Eastern Finland compared to Helsinki metropolitan area. The cultural elements; cultural knowledge, cultural distance and cultural intelligence all affected the attitudes of the respondents. From the elements related to sales behavior and performance customer orientation, salesperson’s affect and empathy toward customers, and perceived job autonomy had an effect on the attitudes