905 resultados para time history analysis
Resumo:
Early and Mid-Pleistocene climate, ocean hydrography and ice sheet dynamics have been reconstructed using a high-resolution data set (planktonic and benthic d18O time series, faunal-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions and ice-rafted debris (IRD)) record from a high-deposition-rate sedimentary succession recovered at the Gardar Drift formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Leg 306, Site U1314). Our sedimentary record spans from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 to MIS 19 (1069-779 ka). Different trends of the benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes, SST and IRD records before and after MIS 25 (~940 ka) evidence the large increase in Northern Hemisphere ice-volume, linked to the cyclicity change from the 41-kyr to the 100-kyr that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Beside longer glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability, millennial-scale fluctuations were a pervasive feature across our study. Negative excursions in the benthic d18O time series observed at the times of IRD events may be related to glacio-eustatic changes due to ice sheets retreats and/or to changes in deep hydrography. Time series analysis on surface water proxies (IRD, SST and planktonic d18O) of the interval between MIS 31 to MIS 26 shows that the timing of these millennial-scale climate changes are related to half-precessional (10 kyr) components of the insolation forcing, which are interpreted as cross-equatorial heat transport toward high latitudes during both equinox insolation maxima at the equator.
Resumo:
La evolución de los precios de los alimentos en años recientes se ha evaluado en numerosos estudios considerando: el análisis de los márgenes comerciales y la evolución temporal de los precios, si bien, la mayoría de ellos centrados en la óptica del consumidor. En este artículo se analizó la evolución temporal de los precios de los alimentos en España en el período 2000-2009 desde el punto de vista del agricultor y ganadero. Concretamente se utilizó información relacionada con los precios percibidos, precios pagados y el índice de precios de consumo (IPC), y con técnicas de análisis de series temporales se analizó la existencia de relaciones de equilibrio a largo plazo entre las series. Los resultados reflejan una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo entre: los precios percibidos y pagados; el IPC y los precios percibidos. Las principales conclusiones muestran que, a pesar de los desequilibrios existentes a corto plazo, a largo plazo los precios percibidos y pagados tienden a una situación de equilibrio. Un elemento importante en la evolución del IPC lo constituyen los precios percibidos por los productos en el sector primario. Sin embargo, la fijación de los precios de los insumos (pagados) en el sector primario; lejos de regirse en el largo plazo por la evolución del IPC; no muestra una relación significativa con dicho indicador.
Resumo:
Lower Cretaceous sediments are frequently characterized by a well expressed cyclicity. While the processes influencing environments above the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) are reasonably well understood, almost nothing is known about the deep ocean. Cretaceous sub-CCD sediments from the Tethys and Atlantic Oceans typically show rhythmic black/green shale successions. To gain insight into the nature of these black/green shale cycles, we performed detailed geochemical analyses (X-ray fluorescence, Rock-Eval and reactive iron analysis) on a 3 m long section of latest Aptian age. The major-element distribution of the analyzed shale sequence indicates a periodic change from a high-productivity and well-oxygenated green shale mode to a low-productivity oxygen-deficient black shale mode. It is proposed here that the preservation of organic matter was dependent on the strength of salinity-driven deepwater generation. Furthermore, the data show that the Corg content covaries with changes in the detrital composition. Therefore we hypothesize that Tethyan deepwater circulation was sensitive to changes in the monsoonal system. Time series analysis suggests that these changes are periodic in nature, although we are currently unable to prove that the dominant periodicity is related to the precession component of the Milankovitch frequencies.
Oxygen isotopic values for benthic foraminifera from DSDP and ODP low latitude marine sediment cores
Resumo:
A record based on counts of the relative abundance of the dominant calcareous nannofossil taxa Coccolithus pelagicus and Reticulofenestra spp. in sediments recovered from Ocean Drilling Program Hole 747A (Kerguelen Plateau, Southern Indian Ocean) is established in this paper. This record (17 m.y. long) virtually spans the entire Miocene. Broad, steplike variations in the abundance of C. pelagicus range between 0% and 96%. Based on these variations, five stratigraphic units characterized by high abundance in C. pelagicus are delineated. We suggest that these variations are caused by water-mass movements (such as the north/south shifting of a front). This pronounced signal is compared with paleoceanographic events revealed by isotopic (d18O and d13C) studies. The five defined units are tentatively correlated to well-known global isotopic events. In particular, Units A and D correlate respectively with the Oligocene/Miocene boundary glaciation and the middle Miocene cooling event. Time-series analysis indicates the presence of the three main periodic components of the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. A 200-k.y. cycle is also present. The stratigraphic and paleoceanographic significance of this record is discussed.
Resumo:
The primary Mg/Ca ratio of foraminiferal shells is a potentially valuable paleoproxy for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions. However, the reliable extraction of this ratio from sedimentary calcite assumes that we can overcome artifacts related to foraminiferal ecology and partial dissolution, as well as contamination by secondary calcite and clay. The standard batch method for Mg/Ca analysis involves cracking, sonicating, and rinsing the tests to remove clay, followed by chemical cleaning, and finally acid-digestion and single-point measurement. This laborious procedure often results in substantial loss of sample (typically 30-60%). We find that even the earliest steps of this procedure can fractionate Mg from Ca, thus biasing the result toward a more variable and often anomalously low Mg/Ca ratio. Moreover, the more rigorous the cleaning, the more calcite is lost, and the more likely it becomes that any residual clay that has not been removed by physical cleaning will increase the ratio. These potentially significant sources of error can be overcome with a flow-through (FT) sequential leaching method that makes time- and labor-intensive pretreatments unnecessary. When combined with time-resolved analysis (FT-TRA) flow-through, performed with a gradually increasing and highly regulated acid strength, produces continuous records of Mg, Sr, Al, and Ca concentrations in the leachate sorted by dissolution susceptibility of the reacting material. Flow-through separates secondary calcite from less susceptible biogenic calcite and clay, and further resolves the biogenic component into primary and more resistant fractions. FT-TRA reliably separates secondary calcite (which is not representative of original life habitats) from the more resistant biogenic calcite (the desired signal) and clay (a contaminant of high Mg/Ca, which also contains Al), and further resolves the biogenic component into primary and more resistant fractions that may reflect habitat or other changes during ontogeny. We find that the most susceptible fraction of biogenic calcite in surface dwelling foraminifera gives the most accurate value for SST and therefore best represents primary calcite. Sequential dissolution curves can be used to correct the primary Mg/Ca ratio for clay, if necessary. However, the temporal separation of calcite from clay in FT-TRA is so complete that this correction is typically <=2%, even in clay-rich sediments. Unlike hands-on batch methods, that are difficult to reproduce exactly, flow-through lends itself to automation, providing precise replication of treatment for every sample. Our automated flow-through system can process 22 samples, two system blanks, and 48 mixed standards in <12 hours of unattended operation. FT-TRA thus represents a faster, cheaper, and better way to determine Mg/Ca ratios in foraminiferal calcite.
Resumo:
The climate during the Cenozoic era changed in several steps from ice-free poles and warm conditions to ice-covered poles and cold conditions. Since the 1950s, a body of information on ice volume and temperature changes has been built up predominantly on the basis of measurements of the oxygen isotopic composition of shells of benthic foraminifera collected from marine sediment cores. The statistical methodology of time series analysis has also evolved, allowing more information to be extracted from these records. Here we provide a comprehensive view of Cenozoic climate evolution by means of a coherent and systematic application of time series analytical tools to each record from a compilation spanning the interval from 4 to 61 Myr ago. We quantitatively describe several prominent features of the oxygen isotope record, taking into account the various sources of uncertainty (including measurement, proxy noise, and dating errors). The estimated transition times and amplitudes allow us to assess causal climatological-tectonic influences on the following known features of the Cenozoic oxygen isotopic record: Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Eocene-Oligocene Transition, Oligocene-Miocene Boundary, and the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. We further describe and causally interpret the following features: Paleocene-Eocene warming trend, the two-step, long-term Eocene cooling, and the changes within the most recent interval (Miocene-Pliocene). We review the scope and methods of constructing Cenozoic stacks of benthic oxygen isotope records and present two new latitudinal stacks, which capture besides global ice volume also bottom water temperatures at low (less than 30°) and high latitudes. This review concludes with an identification of future directions for data collection, statistical method development, and climate modeling.
Resumo:
Variations in the contribution of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), relative to North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW), to the Southern Ocean, are assessed by comparing delta13C records from the mid-depth North Atlantic, deep Southern Ocean, and deep equatorial Pacific Ocean. In general, the relative contribution of NADW was greater during interglaciations than glaciations of the past 550,000 years. An increase in the NADW flux to the Southern Ocean since the last glaciation was proposed to have resulted in higher atmospheric CO2 in the Holocene (Broecker and Peng, 1989, doi:10.1029/GB003i003p00215). Glacial-interglacial variations in the proportion of NADW in the Southern Ocean may have also influenced atmospheric CO2 levels over the past 550,000 years. The greatest relative flux of NADW to the Southern Ocean occurred during interglacial stage 11. Faunal data suggest that the North Atlantic polar front and southern Indian Ocean subtropical convergence zone were located farthest poleward during stage 11. Warmth in these locations and a strong southward flux of NADW during stage 11 may be causally linked by the NADW formation process/warm water return route (Gordon, 1986, doi:10.1029/JC091iC04p05037). Time series analysis indicates that delta13C variations in the deep Southern Ocean occur at the same frequencies as the Earth's orbital variations and are coherent and in phase with delta18O. At most, 50% of the glacial-interglacial delta13C amplitude in the Southern Ocean is due changes in the contribution of NADW. The remainder is probably due to mean ocean delta13C changes.
Resumo:
Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, making it vital to understand the importance of different types of sea ice for ice-dependent species such as polar bears Ursus maritimus. In this study we used GPS telemetry (25 polar bear tracks obtained in Svalbard, Norway, during spring) and high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sea-ice data to investigate fine-scale space use by female polar bears. Space use patterns differed according to reproductive state; females with cubs of the year (COYs) had smaller home ranges and used fast-ice areas more frequently than lone females. First-passage time (FPT) analysis revealed that females with COYs displayed significantly longer FPTs near (<10 km) glacier fronts than in other fast-ice areas; lone females also increased their FPTs in such areas, but they also frequently used drifting pack ice. These results clearly demonstrate the importance of fast-ice areas, in particular close to glacier fronts, especially for females with COYs. Access to abundant and predictable prey (ringed seal pups), energy conservation and reluctance to cross large open water areas are possible reasons for the observed patterns. However, glacier fronts are retracting in Svalbard, and declines in land-fast ice have been notable over the past decade. The eventual disappearance of these important habitats might become critical for the survival of polar bear cubs in Svalbard and other regions with similar habitat characteristics. Given the relatively small size of many fast-ice areas in Svalbard, the results observed in this study would not have been revealed using less accurate location data or lower-resolution sea-ice data.
Resumo:
Peat plateaus are widespread at high northern latitudes and are important soil organic carbon reservoirs. A warming climate can cause either increased ground subsidence (thermokarst) resulting in lake formation or increased drainage as the permafrost thaws. A better understanding of spatiotemporal variations in these landforms in relation to climate change is important for predicting the future thawing permafrost carbon feedback. In this study, dynamics in thermokarst lake extent during the last 35-50 years has been quantified through time series analysis of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images (IKONOS/QuickBird) in three peat plateau complexes, spread out across the northern circumpolar region along a climatic and permafrost gradient. From the mid-1970s until the mid-2000s there has been an increase in mean annual air temperature, winter precipitation, and ground temperature in all three study areas. The two peat plateaus located in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones, respectively, where mean annual air temperatures are below -5°C and ground temperatures are -2°C or colder, have experienced small changes in thermokarst lake extent. In the peat plateau located in the sporadic permafrost zone where the mean annual air temperature is around -3°C, and the ground temperature is close to 0°C, lake drainage and infilling with fen vegetation has been extensive and many new thermokarst lakes have formed. In a future progressively warmer and wetter climate permafrost degradation can cause significant impacts on landscape composition and greenhouse gas exchange also in areas with extensive peat plateaus, which presently still experience stable permafrost conditions.
Resumo:
At the western continental margin of the Barents Sea, 75°N, hemipelagic sediments provide a record of Holocene climate change with a time resolution of 10-70 years. Planktic foraminifera counts reveal a very early Holocene thermal optimum 10.7-7.7 kyr BP, with summer sea surface temperatures (SST) of 8°C and a much enhanced West Spitsbergen Current. There was a short cooling between 8.8 and 8.2 kyr BP. In the middle and late Holocene summer, SST dropped to 2.5°-5.0°C, indicative of reduced Atlantic heat advection, except for two short warmings near 2.2 and 1.6 kyr BP. Distinct quasi-periodic spikes of coarse sediment fraction (with large portions of lithic grains, benthic and planktic foraminifera) record cascades of cold, dense winter water down the continental slope as a result of enhanced seasonal sea ice formation and storminess on the Barents shelf over the entire Holocene. The spikes primarily cluster near recurrence intervals of 400-650 and 1000-1350 years, when traced over the entire Holocene, but follow significant 885-/840- and 505-/605-year periodicities in the early Holocene. These non-stationary periodicities mimic the Greenland-[Formula: See Text]Be variability, which is a tracer of solar forcing. Further significant Holocene periodicities of 230, (145) and 93 years come close to the deVries and Gleissberg solar cycles.