Re-framing risk transfer to assess integrative partnership opportunities: the S.A.R. approach and the AIG/BID/CNO regional surety bond facility of 2007

Identificar, compartilhar e gerenciar os riscos de contratar são preocupações que impedem o estabelicmento e a administração das Parcerias Públicos Particulares (PPP). Porem, gerentes das entidades públicas, bancos de formento, construtoras e seguradoras pesquisam e utilizam muitas técnicas para enfrentar a avaliação e gerenciamento dos riscos. A transferência de risco é uma indicação dos chamados benefícios que são inspirados pelos PPP, contudo devido às realidades contratuais e conceptuais, a entidade de cede o risco (o partido público) permanece quase sempre como o portador final do risco. Conseqüentemente, o partido público retem um interesse de resistência na gerência total destes riscos cedidos. Esta dissertação explora alguns defeitos das aproximações comuns a conceituar a gestão de risco no contexto de um PPP. Focalizando os conceitos da interdependência e da reciprocidade e usando na decisão para transferir o risco do projeto, esta dissertação molda a decisão para transferir o risco nos termos das realidades interdependentes de relacionamentos sistemáticos, alargam os conceitos técnicos do risco e da avaliação de risco, considerando o uso reflexivo das diferenças na analise de um estudo de caso. O autor explora estes conceitos em uma análise da decisão de um gerente de risco da empresa de construção civil brasileira Construtora Norberto Odebrecht (ODB) para projetar uma facilidade inovadora da ligação de garantia com Inter-American Development Bank (BID) e uma seguradora, American International Group (AIG), um negócio que ganhe o reconhecimento Trade Finance Magazine’s 2007 deal of the year. O autor mostra que por compreender a transferência de risco nos termos abordados nesta dissertação, um atore que transfere o risco pode identificar e criar mais oportunidades de estabelecer relacionamentos em longo prazo, através dos processos que a literatura atual do PPP ainda não considere. Os resultados devem fornecer contribuições para a pesquisas sobre a transferência do risco do projeto, na cooperação entre organizações e na seleção do sócio do projeto do potencial.

Competição inter familiar: exchange traded funds e fundos de investimentos passivos

Com o ETF passando a ser utilizado por investidores mais sofisticados e com a possibilidade de passar a ganhar representatividade, seja para uma estratégia passiva ou para uma estratégia combinada com ativos de maior risco e mais especializados, este paper busca explicar e justificar a coexistência destes veículos, que tem objetivos semelhantes, mas com estruturas diferentes. Com este objetivo, o estudo busca analisar o comportamento e a eficácia dos produtos passivos de investimentos - fundos classificados como ETF´s (sigla para Exchange-Traded Fund) e Fundos Mútuos Passivos no mercado brasileiro. Buscamos avaliar comparativamente, demonstrando diferenciações dos produtos do ponto de vista técnico, validando o comportamento dos gestores em relação a gestão passiva e de produto para os investidores finais. Apesar de literatura acadêmica recente sobre a comparatividade, o estudo busca elucidar possíveis oportunidades e aspectos relevantes para os investidores. Não é objetivo deste trabalho fazer relação comparativa entre produtos ativos de ações e os ETF´s no Brasil, apenas detalharemos o retorno obtido nos últimos períodos. O trabalho demonstra, com exemplos númericos, que o ETF torna-se um instrumento atrativo aos investidores na medida do aproveitamento de suas potencialidades, fato este com evolução relevante nos mercados da Europa e Estados Unidos, principalmente.

Implications of ernbodied technological change for development economics

Employing a embodied technologic change model in which the time decision of scrapping old vintages of capital and adopt newer one is endogenous we show that the elasticity of substitutions among capital and labor plays a key role in determining the optimum life span of capital. In particular, for the CD case the life span of capital does not depend on the relative price of it. The estimation of the model's long-run investment function shows, for a Panel data set consisting of 125 economies for 25 years, that the price elasticity of investment is lower than one; we rejected the CD specification. Our calibration for the US suggests 0.4 for the technical elasticity of substitution. In order to get a theoretical consistent concept of aggregate capital we derive the relative price profile for a shadow second-hand market for capital. The shape of the model's theoretical price curve reproduces the empírical estimation of it. \lVe plug the calibrate version of the long-run solution of the model to a cross-section of economies data set to get the implied TFP, that is, the part of the productivity which is not explained by the model. We show that the mo dei represent a good improvement, comparing to the standard neoc!assical growth model with CD production function and disembodied technical change, in accounting the world diversity in productivity. In addition the model describes the fact that a very poor economy can experience fast growth based on capital accumulation until the point of becoming a middle income economy; from this point on it has to rely on TFP increase in order to keep growing.

The dimensions of trust in interorganizational relationships: how buyer and supplier perspectives differ?

Apesar da pesquisa em confiança interorganizacional e sua relação com performance ter sido conduzida sob as perspectivas da Teoria de Custos de Transação, Teoria das Trocas Sociais e Canais de Marketing, três importantes lacunas na literatura requerem investigação. Primeiro, está em andamento um debate conceitual sobre a multi-dimensionalidade da confiança, e como ela deve ser operacionalizada e medida, e que se divide em três correntes de pensamento - um construto multidimensional definido por dimensões não dominantes, um construto baseado em duas dimensões dominantes (afetiva e calculativa), ou um construto unidimensional. Segundo, existe ambiguidade em como as dimensões da confiança são definidas, levando a artefatos de equivalência nas escalas e resultados contraditórios. Terceiro, as diferentes percepções que compradores e fornecedores podem ter em cada dimensão da confiança e seu impacto na performance logística ainda não estão claros. Esta pesquisa empírica examina a confiança nas relações entre compradores e fornecedores no setor de logística no Brasil, através de duas amostras e estudos independentes: um examina a percepção dos compradores e o outro examina a dos fornecedores. Em seguida, os dois estudos são comparados para determinar as diferentes perspectivas da confiança e as implicações na performance logística. A análise multivariada mostrou que a confiança parece estar presente nas relações interorganizacionais, e é a percepção do comprador que possui maior relação com a performance logística. Ao mesmo tempo, compradores percebem fornecedores de forma mais negativa nas dimensões mensuráveis (competência e performance), enquanto não foram encontradas diferenças nos aspectos sociais (honestidade e benevolência), o que pode ser resultado do ambiente e cultura pesquisados. As análises mostraram que, apesar da confiança poder ser definida como um construto multidimensional, ela deve ser operacionalizada como um construto unidimensional direcionado pela competência e credibilidade. Este estudo contribui para a prática sugerindo formas de aumentar a confiança interorganizacional para aumento da performance.

Integrated valorization of Anona Cherimola Mill. seeds

Agricultural and agro-industrial residues are often considered both an environmental and an economical problem. Therefore, a paradigm shift is needed, assuming residues as biorefinery feedstocks. In this work cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.) seeds, which are lipid-rich (ca. 30%) and have a significant lignocellulosic fraction, were used as an example of a residue without any current valorization. Firstly, the lipid fraction was obtained by solvent extraction. Extraction yield varied from 13% to 28%, according to the extraction method and time, and solvent purity. This oil was converted into biodiesel (by base-catalyzed transesterification), yielding 76 g FAME/100 g oil. The obtained biodiesel is likely to be incorporated in the commercial chain, according to the EN14214 standard. The remaining lignocellulosic fraction was subjected to two alternative fractionation processes for the selective recovery of hemicellulose, aiming different products. Empirical mathematical models were developed for both processes, aiming future scale-up. Autohydrolysis rendered essentially oligosaccharides (10 gL-1) with properties indicating potential food/feed/pharmacological applications. The remaining solid was enzymatically saccharified, reaching a saccharification yield of 83%. The hydrolyzate obtained by dilute acid hydrolysis contained mostly monosaccharides, mainly xylose (26 gL-1), glucose (10 gL-1) and arabinose (3 gL-1), and had low content of microbial growth inhibitors. This hydrolyzate has proven to be appropriate to be used as culture media for exopolisaccharide production, using bacteria or microbial consortia. The maximum conversion of monosaccharides into xanthan gum was 0.87 g/g and kefiran maximum productivity was 0.07 g.(Lh)-1. This work shows the technical feasibility of using cherimoya seeds, and materials as such, as potential feedstocks, opening new perspectives for upgrading them in the biorefinery framework.

Determination of the highest no-effect dose (HNED) and of the elimination pattern for cocaine in horses

Cocaine is one of the most widespread illegal stimulants utilized by the human population throughout the world. The aim of this study was to establish the highest no-effect dose (HNED) of cocaine on the spontaneous locomotor activity (SLA) of horses in a behavior chamber, and thereby to determine the maximal acceptable threshold of the urinary drug concentration in horses. Twelve English thoroughbred mares received 0.02, 0.03, 0.04, 0.08 or 0.12 mg kg(-1) cocaine i.v. or saline solution (control). It was noted that doses above 0.04 mg kg(-1) induced a significant increase in SLA (P < 0.05, Tukey's test). No significant increase in SLA was seen in the mares that received 0.03 mg kg(-1), but the animals showed important behavioral changes that did not occur after the 0.02 mg kg(-1) dose. It was concluded that the HNED of cocaine for horses in a behavior chamber is 0.02 mg kg(-1). After injection of this dose in five horses, urine samples were collected at predetermined intervals through vesical catheterization. The concentrations of cocaine, norcocaine, benzoylecgonine and ecgonine methyl ester were quantified by liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. Cocaine and norcocaine concentrations remained consistently below the level of detection. Benzoylecgonine reached a mean (+/- SEM) maximum concentration of 531.9 +/- 168.7 ng ml(-1) after 4 h, whereas ecgonine methyl ester peaked 2 h after injection at a concentration of 97.2 +/- 26.5 ng ml(-1). The maximum admissible concentration for cocaine and/or metabolites in the urine of horses is difficult to establish unequivocally because of the substantial individual variation in the drug elimination pattern observed in horses, which can be inferred by the large standard error of the means obtained. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Soil CO2 emission of sugarcane fields as affected by topography

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Improving the GNSS positioning stochastic model in the presence of ionospheric scintillation

Ionospheric scintillations are caused by time-varying electron density irregularities in the ionosphere, occurring more often at equatorial and high latitudes. This paper focuses exclusively on experiments undertaken in Europe, at geographic latitudes between similar to 50 degrees N and similar to 80 degrees N, where a network of GPS receivers capable of monitoring Total Electron Content and ionospheric scintillation parameters was deployed. The widely used ionospheric scintillation indices S4 and sigma(phi) represent a practical measure of the intensity of amplitude and phase scintillation affecting GNSS receivers. However, they do not provide sufficient information regarding the actual tracking errors that degrade GNSS receiver performance. Suitable receiver tracking models, sensitive to ionospheric scintillation, allow the computation of the variance of the output error of the receiver PLL (Phase Locked Loop) and DLL (Delay Locked Loop), which expresses the quality of the range measurements used by the receiver to calculate user position. The ability of such models of incorporating phase and amplitude scintillation effects into the variance of these tracking errors underpins our proposed method of applying relative weights to measurements from different satellites. That gives the least squares stochastic model used for position computation a more realistic representation, vis-a-vis the otherwise 'equal weights' model. For pseudorange processing, relative weights were computed, so that a 'scintillation-mitigated' solution could be performed and compared to the (non-mitigated) 'equal weights' solution. An improvement between 17 and 38% in height accuracy was achieved when an epoch by epoch differential solution was computed over baselines ranging from 1 to 750 km. The method was then compared with alternative approaches that can be used to improve the least squares stochastic model such as weighting according to satellite elevation angle and by the inverse of the square of the standard deviation of the code/carrier divergence (sigma CCDiv). The influence of multipath effects on the proposed mitigation approach is also discussed. With the use of high rate scintillation data in addition to the scintillation indices a carrier phase based mitigated solution was also implemented and compared with the conventional solution. During a period of occurrence of high phase scintillation it was observed that problems related to ambiguity resolution can be reduced by the use of the proposed mitigated solution.

GPS Satellite Kinematic Relative Positioning: Analyzing and Improving the Functional Mathematical Model Using Wavelets

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Physical-chemical and thermodynamic analyses of ethanol steam reforming for hydrogen production

Steam reforming is the most usual method of hydrogen production due to its high production efficiency and technological maturity the use of ethanol for this purpose is an interesting option because it is a renewable and environmentally friendly fuel. The objective of this article is to present the physical-chemical, thermodynamic, and exergetic analysis of a steam reformer of ethanol, in order to produce 0.7 Nm(3)/h of hydrogen as feedstock of a 1 kW PEMFC the global reaction of ethanol is considered. Superheated ethanol reacts with steam at high temperatures producing hydrogen and carbon dioxide, depending strongly on the thermodynamic conditions of reforming, as well as on the technical features of the reformer system and catalysts. The thermodynamic analysis shows the feasibility of this reaction in temperatures about 206 degrees C. Below this temperature, the reaction trends to the reactants. The advance degree increases with temperature and decreases with pressure. Optimal temperatures range between 600 and 700 degrees C. However, when the temperature attains 700 degrees C, the reaction stability occurs, that is, the hydrogen production attains the limit. For temperatures above 700 degrees C, the heat use is very high, involving high costs of production due to the higher volume of fuel or electricity used. The optimal pressure is 1 atm., e.g., at atmospheric pressure. The exergetic analysis shows that the lower irreversibility is attained for lower pressures. However the temperature changes do not affect significantly the irreversibilities. This analysis shows that the best thermodynamic conditions for steam reforming of ethanol are the same conditions suggested in the physical-chemical analysis.

Estudo do potencial da técnica de nanossísmica para o monitoramento de hidrofraturamento em reservatórios de hidrocarbonetos

Hydraulic fracturing is an operation in which pressurised fluid is injected in the geological formation surrounding the producing well to create new permeable paths for hydrocarbons. The injection of such fluids in the reservoir induces seismic events. The measurement of this reservoir stimulation can be made by location these induced microseismic events. However, microseismic monitoring is an expensive operation because the acquisition and data interpretation system using in this monitoring rely on high signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). In general, the sensors are deployed in a monitoring well near the treated well and can make a microseismic monitoring quite an expensive operation. In this dissertation we propose the application of a new method for recording and location of microseismic events called nanoseismic monitoring (Joswig, 2006). In this new method, a continuous recording is performed and the interpreter can separate events from noise using sonograms. This new method also allows the location of seismic sources even when P and S phases onsets are not clear like in situations of 0 dB SNR. The clear technical advantage of this new method is also economically advantageous since the sensors can potentially be installed on the surface rather than in observation well. In this dissertation field tests with controlled sources were made. In the first test small explosives using fire works at 28 m (slant distances) were detected yealding magnitudes between -2.4 ≤ ML ≤ -1.6.. In a second test, we monitored perforation shots in a producing oil field. In this second test, one perforation shot was located with slant distances of 861 m and magnitude 2.4 ML. Data from the tests allow us to say that the method has potential to be used in the oil industry to monitor hydrofracture

Influence of different light sources and photo-activation methods on degree of conversion and polymerization shrinkage of a nanocomposite resin

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Adaptation of the reservoir fish assemblage index (RFAI) for assessing the Barra Bonita Reservoir (São Paulo, Brazil)

In order to evaluate the environmental condition of the Barra Bonita Reservoir, we adapted the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI). We chose 24 sampling sites in which three types of habitats were sampled: the mouths of tributaries, the central reservoir and the lateral reservoir. Fish were caught in two seasons (dry and rainy) using 10 gillnet gangs, with meshes ranging from 3 to 12 cm between opposite knots, and funnel traps. Abiotic and biotic variables were measured. Due to the artificial nature of the reservoir, the term biotic integrity was considered inappropriate and the term RFAI (Reservoir Fish Assemblage Index) was adopted. Twelve metrics from sixteen possibles were selected using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The reference conditions were set up based on the criteria of the best condition observed. For each metric, a score of 1, 3 or 5 was assigned as it strongly departs (1), slightly departs (3) or approaches (5) the reference condition. The index value is the sum of the metrics partial scores and ranges from 12 to 60. To evaluate the importance of the unit of measurement of the metric, the index was calculated in fish number (RFAI(N)) and in weight (RFAI(w)). The correlation between RFAIN and RFAIw was very high (r = 0.90, n = 46) indicating that the unit of measurement does not influence the final result of the index. Most of the sampling sites were classified in the 'reasonable' RFAI category. Only the central sites were classified as 'poor'. To validate the RFAI, another index, the Habitat Quality Index (HQI), was built starting from the physiochemical and habitat variables collected. The correlation of the RFAI with the HQI was highly significant (RFAIN, r = 0.37; RFAI(w), r = 0.47; n = 46), indicating that they respond in the same way to environmental degradation. The HQI metrics which most affect RFAI were depth, surrounding landscape and macrophyte presence/absence. Copyright C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Utilização do intercepto-y na avaliação da aptidão anaeróbia e predição da performance de nadadores treinados

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Universal behavior of a trapped Fermi superfluid in the BCS-unitarity crossover

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)