Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model.

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

The Impact of Thermal Coupling on Catalyst Behavior in Wall-Coated Heat-Exchanger Microreactors

This thesis presents a numerical study of reaction and diffusion phenomena in wall-coated heat-exchanger microreactors. Specifically, the interactions between an endothermic and exothermic catalyst layer separated by an impermeable wall is studied to understand the inherent behavior of the system. Two modeling approaches are presented, the first under the assumption of a constant thermal gradient and neglecting heat of reaction and the second considering both catalyst layers and reaction heat. Both studies found that thicker, more thermally insulating catalyst layers increase the effectiveness of the exothermic reaction by allowing for accumulation of reaction heat while thinner catalyst layers for the endothermic catalyst allow for direct access of the reactant to higher wall temperatures.

Eigentliche Abbildung der neuwen Angefangenen Statt Mullheim : mit deroselben wall-Bollwercken gassen vnd gebewen

Bibliogr. Nachweis: Geschichtsblätter / Hogenberg, Nr. 415

Lilium giganteum Wall. und Crinum capense Herb. : Lilien für's freie Land

anonym

Chemistry of hot waters sampled from basaltic basement at DSDP Hole 83-504B

Seawater that has been altered by reaction with basaltic basement has been sampled from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 504B, located on 5.9-m.y.-old crust on the southern flank of the Costa Rica Rift. Fourteen water samples have been collected on Legs 69, 70, and 83, both before and after renewed drilling on the latter two legs, at temperatures from 69 to 133°C and pressures from 390 to 425 bars. The water sampled prior to renewed drilling on Leg 83 had occupied the hole for nearly 2 yr. since it was last flushed with surface seawater at the end of Leg 70. Despite some contamination by seawater during sampling, the composition of two of these waters has been determined by using nitrate as a tag for the contaminant. Both the 80 and 115°C waters have seawater chlorinity, but have lost considerable Mg, Na, K, sulfate, and 02, and have gained Ca, alkalinity, Si, NH3 and H2S. The loss of sulfate is due to anhydrite precipitation, as indicated by the d34S value of the remaining dissolved sulfate. The 87Sr/86Sr ratio has been lowered to 0.7086 for the 80°C water and 0.7078 for the 115°C water, whereas the Sr concentration is nearly unchanged. The changes in major element composition relative to seawater are also larger for the 115°C water, indicating that the basement formation water at this site probably varies in composition with depth. Based on their direction relative to seawater, the compositional changes for the 80 and 115°C waters do not complement the changes inferred for the altered rocks from Hole 504B, suggesting that the bulk composition of the altered rocks, like their mineralogy, is largely unrelated to the present thermal and alteration regime in the hole. The exact nature of the reacted seawaters cannot be determined yet, however. During its 2 yr. residence in the hole, the surface seawater remaining at the end of Leg 70 would have reacted with the wall rocks and exchanged with their interstitial formation waters by diffusion and possibly convection. How far these processes have proceeded is not yet certain, although calculations suggest that diffusion alone could have largely exchanged the surface seawater for interstitial water. The d18O of the samples is indistinguishable from seawater, however, and the d14C of the 80°C sample is similar to that of ocean bottom water. Although the interpretation of these species is ambiguous, that of tritium should not be. Tritium analyses, which are in progress, should clarify the nature of the reacted seawaters obtained from the hole.

Geochemistry of dikes and lavas from the north wall of the Hess Deep Rift

An investigation of ~1-m.y.-old dikes and lavas from the north wall of the Hess Deep Rift (2°15'N, 101°30'W) collected during Alvin expeditions provides a detailed view of the evolution of fast spreading oceanic crust. The study area encompasses 25 km of an east-west flow line, representing ~370,000 years of crustal accretion at the East Pacific Rise. Samples analyzed exhibit depleted incompatible trace element abundances and ratios [(La/Sm)N < 1]. Indices of fractionation (MgO), and incompatible element ratios (La/Sm, Nb/Ti) show no systematic trends along flow line. Rather, over short (<4 m) and long (~25 km) distances, significant variations are observed in major and trace element concentrations and ratios. Modeling of these variations attests to the juxtaposition of dikes of distinct parental magma compositions. These findings, combined with studies of segmentation of the subaxial magma chamber and lateral magma transport in dikes along rift-dominated systems, suggest a more realistic model of the magmatic system underlying the East Pacific Rise relative to the commonly assumed twodimensional model. In this model, melts from a heterogeneous mantle feed distinct portions of a segmented axial magma reservoir. Dikes emanating from these distinct reservoirs transport magma along axis, resulting in interleaved dikes and host lavas with different evolutionary histories. This model suggests the use of axial or flow line lava compositions to infer the evolution of axial magma chambers should be approached with caution because dikes may never erupt lava or may transport magma significant distances along axis and erupt lavas far from their axial magma chamber of origin.

Benthic foraminiferal composition at the inner wall of the Middle America Trench, Costa Rica

The sediments of Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 565 and University of Texas Marine Science Institute Cores IG-24-7-38 to -42 taken on the landward slope of the Middle America Trench exhibit characteristics of material subject to reworking during downslope mass flow. These characteristics include a generally homogeneous texture, lack of sedimentary structures, pervasive presence of a penetrative scaly fabric, and presence of transported benthic foraminifers. Although these features occur throughout the sediments examined, trends in bulk density, porosity, and water content, and abrupt shifts in these index physical properties and in sediment magnetic properties at Site 565 indicate that downslope sediment creep is presently most active in the upper 45 to 50 m of sediment. It cannot be determined whether progressive dewatering of sediment has brought the material at this depth to a plastic limit at which sediment can no longer flow (thus resulting in its accretion to the underlying sediments) or whether this depth represents a surface along which slumping has occurred. We suspect both are true in part, that is, that mass movements and downslope reworking accumulate sediments in a mobile layer of material that is self-limiting in thickness.