997 resultados para statistical discrimination
Resumo:
Chiral thioureas and functionalised chiral thiouronium salts were synthesised starting from the relatively cheap and easily available chiral amines: (S)-methylbenzylamine and rosin-derived (+)-dehydroabietylamine. The introduction of a delocalised positive charge to the thiourea functionality, by an alkylation reaction at the sulfur atom, enables dynamic rotameric processes: hindered rotations about the delocalised CN and CS bonds. Hence, four different rotamers/isomers may be recognised: syn-syn, syn-anti, anti-syn and anti-anti. Extensive H-1 and C-13 NMR studies have shown that in hydrogen-bond acceptor solvents, such as perdeuteriated dimethyl sulfoxide, the syn-syn conformation is preferable. On the other hand, when using non-polar solvents, such as CDCl3, the mixture of syn-syn and syn-anti isomers is detectable, with an excess of the latter. Apart from this, in the case of S-butyl-N,N'-bis(dehydroabietyl)thiouronium ethanoate in CDCl3, the H-1 NMR spectrum revealed that strong bifurcated hydrogen bonding between the anion and the cation causes global rigidity without signs of hindered rotamerism observable on the NMR time scale. This suggested that these new salts might be used as NMR discriminating agents for chiral oxoanions, and are indeed more effective than their archetypal guanidinium analogues or the neutral thioureas. The best results in recognition of a model substrate, mandelate, were obtained with S-butyl-N,N'-bis(dehydroabietyl) thiouronium bistriflamide. It was confirmed that the chiral recognition occurred not only for carboxylates but also for sulfonates and phosphonates. Further H-1 NMR studies confirmed a 1 : 1 recognition mode between the chiral agent (host) and the substrate (guest); binding constants were determined by H-1 NMR titrations in solutions of DMSO-d(6) in CDCl3. It was also found that the anion of the thiouronium salt had a significant influence on the recognition process: anions with poor hydrogen-bond acceptor abilities led to the best discrimination. The presence of host-guest hydrogen bonding was confirmed in the X-ray crystal structure of S-butyl-N,N'-bis(dehydroabietyl)thiouronium bromide and by computational studies (density functional theory).
Resumo:
The techniques of principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) are introduced from the point of view of providing a multivariate statistical method for modelling process plants. The advantages and limitations of PCA and PLS are discussed from the perspective of the type of data and problems that might be encountered in this application area. These concepts are exemplified by two case studies dealing first with data from a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) simulation and second a literature source describing a low-density polyethylene (LDPE) reactor simulation.
Resumo:
Anti-islanding protection is becoming increasingly important due to the rapid installation of distributed generation from renewable resources like wind, tidal and wave, solar PV, bio-fuels, as well as from other resources like diesel. Unintentional islanding presents a potential risk for damaging utility plants and equipment connected from the demand side, as well as to public and personnel in utility plants. This paper investigates automatic islanding detection. This is achieved by deploying a statistical process control approach for fault detection with the real-time data acquired through a wide area measurement system, which is based on Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) technology. In particular, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used to project the data into principal component subspace and residual space, and two statistics are used to detect the occurrence of fault. Then a fault reconstruction method is used to identify the fault and its development over time. The proposed scheme has been used in a real system and the results have confirmed that the proposed method can correctly identify the fault and islanding site.
Resumo:
Base rate neglect on the mammography problem can be overcome by explicitly presenting a causal basis for the typically vague false-positive statistic. One account of this causal facilitation effect is that people make probabilistic judgements over intuitive causal models parameterized with the evidence in the problem. Poorly defined or difficult-to-map evidence interferes with this process, leading to errors in statistical reasoning. To assess whether the construction of parameterized causal representations is an intuitive or deliberative process, in Experiment 1 we combined a secondary load paradigm with manipulations of the presence or absence of an alternative cause in typical statistical reasoning problems. We found limited effects of a secondary load, no evidence that information about an alternative cause improves statistical reasoning, but some evidence that it reduces base rate neglect errors. In Experiments 2 and 3 where we did not impose a load, we observed causal facilitation effects. The amount of Bayesian responding in the causal conditions was impervious to the presence of a load (Experiment 1) and to the precise statistical information that was presented (Experiment 3). However, we found less Bayesian responding in the causal condition than previously reported. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings and the suggestion that there may be population effects in the accuracy of statistical reasoning.
Resumo:
People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430–450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples’ errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.
Resumo:
A key tracer of the elusive progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is the detection of narrow blueshifted time-varying Na I D absorption lines, interpreted as evidence of circumstellar material surrounding the progenitor system. The origin of this material is controversial, but the simplest explanation is that it results from previous mass-loss in a system containing a white dwarf and a non-degenerate companion star. We present new single-epoch intermediate-resolution spectra of 17 low-redshift SNe Ia taken with XShooter on the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope. Combining this sample with events from the literature, we confirm an excess (∼20 per cent) of SNe Ia displaying blueshifted narrow Na I D absorption features compared to redshifted Na I D features. The host galaxies of SNe Ia displaying blueshifted absorption profiles are skewed towards later-type galaxies, compared to SNe Ia that show no Na I D absorption and SNe Ia displaying blueshifted narrow Na I D absorption features have broader light curves. The strength of the Na I D absorption is stronger in SNe Ia displaying blueshifted Na I D absorption features than those without blueshifted features, and the strength of the blueshifted Na I D is correlated with the B − V colour of the SN at maximum light. This strongly suggests the absorbing material is local to the SN. In the context of the progenitor systems of SNe Ia, we discuss the significance of these findings and other recent observational evidence on the nature of SN Ia progenitors. We present a summary that suggests that there are at least two distinct populations of normal, cosmologically useful SNe Ia.